Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk · 06-08-2019 06:03PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Possibly. I think Johnson would be better than May at getting such a deal through. The ERG would still be against it but as you say, with enough Labour MPs, it might get through.

On the other hand, he's also said that the WA is dead and putting a piece of territory into a special zone is still problematic for any country even without the complexities of the North.

I've still got a feeling it will be something else entirely if it is not going to be a hard brexit. I could be wrong but we'll see. Hard brexit still most likely outcome imo.

But the ERG has already stated even if you take out the backstop they will not vote for it and Labour's position seems to be that any Tory deal is off the table so they will not vote for it. So we are in a position where the current deal will not be accepted in part because Labour is doing what an opposition does, it opposes, but also because the ERG has painted themselves into a corner completely and cannot get out of it.

I struggle to see how this ends if Johnson remains in charge. I am sure if there is a government of national unity then the outcome will change, but while the current actors remain at the top there will be a no-deal Brexit.

Lackadaisical · 06-08-2019 06:04PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In reality, the ERG don't give a damn about NI. England first, second and third.

In reality the DUP are useful stooges for the ERG. They do not have the same objectives at all. The DUP's clinging to the notion of their British identity, which they see as under threat and the ERG simply sees them as annoying peasants with some weird accent who are temporarily useful to further their objectives of English nationalism and sink or swim economics.

Northern Ireland would be in a really precarious position if some of the absolute economic libertarians of the right wing of the Tories were to get into power in a serious way. You'd be looking at the end of subsidisation.

The only reason NI is important is down to a fluke of parliamentary arithmetic. Once that goes away, in the English nationalist brain, they're just that odd group of Irish people who insist they're British for some reason and march up and down in bowler hats. That's the reality of it.

It's unfortunate that the DUP are about to sell Northern Ireland out because they are too blind to recognise false flattery and a few magic beans.

I can't see the broader Northern Ireland community, other than a minority of very hardcore loyalists (and even they may not even be all that their livelihoods may be undermined through trading/regularly changes, declining spending power, politically inspired cuts and lack of interest) being too chuffed with the outcome of this.

A united Ireland may not be a viable solution either - that can only ever come about through positive engagement and absolutely clear consent from the NI population, but a maintaining the status quo compromise that gives Northern Ireland a special status, which to be realistic, is something that it has always had in a whole range of areas, is probably the only practical solution. If that doesn't happen, it's entirely the DUP's fault. Everything has come down to 'blood red lines' and hardcore identity politics and paranoia about 'Dublin'.

If the DUP had any real care for Northern Ireland they would collapse the UK government and let politics take its course and this Brexit disaster be ironed out properly. The lure of flattery and notions of power is quite obviously too much and the big vision leadership that's desperately needed in Northern Ireland to bring it together is nonexistent.

I don't see history being kind somehow.

Strazdas · 06-08-2019 06:14PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Nothing like a bit of the old racism from the leave side.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1158760843779149824

They seem to be becoming increasingly obsessed with Varadkar. This is not surprising as a) he is pretty much the only one articulating the EU position in public at the moment and b) some of the other actors/targets like Juncker, Tusk...are leaving the stage.

This is part of the reason he is taking so much abuse from UK tory media and leave voters.

They're obsessed with Varadkar being a "puppet" of the EU. They create their own false narrative and then run with it.

briany · 06-08-2019 06:15PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I cannot see No Deal on a ballot paper. It would involve the UK taking a sledgehammer to all its agreements with the EU and being nearly in a hostile stand off with them....a quite bizarre thing to vote on in a referendum.

The bizarre cherry on the bizarre cake that has been the last 3 years of Brexit.
I think that No Deal would have to appear on the ballot because the best way to show that vocal minority shouting for it that their opinion is rejected by the British public is to let the British public do just that.

Lackadaisical · 06-08-2019 06:32PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Was listening to Eamon dunphy's podcast earlier.he had that great oirish man Brendan O'Neill from spiked on .god he can't disguise his ill feelings towards Leo.Leo,the EU,remoaners the usual suspects to blame for the cock-up that brexit was /is

It's absolutely pathetic the way they are incapable of arguing facts, but instead just turn into school yard bullying tactics and calling people names. You see it quite regularly with the attacks on Nichola Sturgeon using terms that I won't even repeat here, but in reference to her stature or her accent and so on.

My view of it is report racist or xenophobic tweets. Twitter has fairly strong T&Cs and other than that ignore it and don't rise to it. It's utterly deplorable gutter politics but it's also a clear indication that they have no points to make.

serfboard · 06-08-2019 06:32PM

Strazdas wrote: »

They're obsessed with Varadkar being a "puppet" of the EU. They create their own false narrative and then run with it.

Yeah, sure do you remember a while back they ignorantly said that if Enda Kenny had remained as Taoiseach they'd have got a better deal from him, but since Leo is a closet Sinn Féiner ... :rolleyes:

BluePlanet · 06-08-2019 07:11PM

It does seem that the Brexit side revert to insults and threats more than the other sides.

They are getting more and more shrill as they are not getting the Deal they want.

briany · 06-08-2019 07:14PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

It does seem that the Brexit side revert to insults and threats more than the other sides.

They are getting more and more shrill as they are not getting the Deal they want.

I don't think either side is totally free of the name-calling guilt. There aren't really metrics, though, which is useful for the Brexit side to say, if pushed, that "Well, you're just as bad!".

PropJoe10 · 06-08-2019 07:22PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hope somebody forwards that to the EU commission. Important to remind them what they are dealing with.

Watch the Brexit: Behind Closed Doors programme/documentary and you'll see that they're quite aware of what they're dealing with. It's a good watch!

ancapailldorcha · 06-08-2019 07:25PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hope somebody forwards that to the EU commission. Important to remind them what they are dealing with.

If there is one single thing that has been constant through this whole fell endeavour of the British establishment, it's that the EU, its organs and its members have known all along what to expect and have planned and acted accordingly.

Sam Russell · 06-08-2019 07:58PM

20silkcut wrote: »

A referendum on the type of Brexit with remain not an option might work.
Such a drastic action as a no deal brexit should be put to a public vote.
If the mandate is there for a no deal brexit it should be confirmed by a referendum.

One simple question, should the Uk leave the EU without a deal in place?
Yes/no
If that mandate fails to materialize then all sorts of can kicking can ensue.

Any referendum, whatever the question, runs the risk of a 52:48 result in favour of remain. It then looks undemocratic to those that cried 'will of the people' when the result was the other way.

The only way for this to end - forever - is for a National Government, led by the likes of Ken Clarke (old but Tory) or Caroline Lucas (young but Green). Neither are likely to continue as PM following a GE, so no threat to any party.

They cannot call a referendum because there is no time, and anyway, the result would not be accepted, no matter what the result.

So - they revoke art 50, giving the full reason that nobody voted for how they were to leave and no single preferred option has passed the HoC. Also, the Leave campaign broke the law, and told many egregious lies. The PM should announce a Royal Tribunal into the matter, and instruct the Met Police to redouble their enquiries into the criminal aspects of funding of the Leave campaign - particularly A Banks part in it, and the link to Russian money.

They then sandbag their action by passing legislation to make invocation of Art 50 only possible with a two thirds HoC majority (as in the FTPA). That would put future Brexit out of range for the foreseeable future.

If they get a National Gov, they should not waste it. They could also get rid of FPTP while they are at it.

Time is getting too close and so desperate measures and panic is needed.

Sam Russell · 06-08-2019 08:07PM

GBP now over 92p = €1 for most of the day, testing its worst value for a decade, and possibly ever.

Against the US$ it is GB£1 = US$1.21 today - a decade ago it was US$1.70.

Much more and there will be a run on it.

briany · 06-08-2019 08:13PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Any referendum, whatever the question, runs the risk of a 52:48 result in favour of remain. It then looks undemocratic to those that cried 'will of the people' when the result was the other way.

The only way for this to end - forever - is for a National Government, led by the likes of Ken Clarke (old but Tory) or Caroline Lucas (young but Green). Neither are likely to continue as PM following a GE, so no threat to any party.

They cannot call a referendum because there is no time, and anyway, the result would not be accepted, no matter what the result.

So - they revoke art 50, giving the full reason that nobody voted for how they were to leave and no single preferred option has passed the HoC. Also, the Leave campaign broke the law, and told many egregious lies. The PM should announce a Royal Tribunal into the matter, and instruct the Met Police to redouble their enquiries into the criminal aspects of funding of the Leave campaign - particularly A Banks part in it, and the link to Russian money.

They then sandbag their action by passing legislation to make invocation of Art 50 only possible with a two thirds HoC majority (as in the FTPA). That would put future Brexit out of range for the foreseeable future.

If they get a National Gov, they should not waste it. They could also get rid of FPTP while they are at it.

Time is getting too close and so desperate measures and panic is needed.

I just can't help but see this course of action being painted as a veritable Establishment coup d'etat by every single populist right-wing media outlet and commentator. It would, at least, be a decisive political action in a sea of dithering and a demonstration that politicians can put their party alliances aside. I suppose that much would be heartening. On the other hand, I see a flat revocation of A50 as doing absolutely nothing to salve the public anger and discontent which led to Brexit, and festering it further, and if this anger is not addressed, then you get something even worse down the road. What I would expect at the least is that the Brexit Party would be in a coalition government at the next GE.

FrancieBrady · 06-08-2019 08:19PM

briany wrote: »

I just can't help but see this course of action being painted as a veritable Establishment coup d'etat by every single populist right-wing media outlet and commentator. It would, at least, be a decisive political action in a sea of dithering and a demonstration that politicians can put their party alliances aside. I suppose that much would be heartening. On the other hand, I see a flat revocation of A50 as doing absolutely nothing to salve the public anger and discontent which led to Brexit, and festering it further, and if this anger is not addressed, then you get something even worse down the road. What I would expect at the least is that the Brexit Party would be in a coalition government at the next GE.

Agree. It could spark off serious long term unrest. If that does happen for any reason over Brexit, like any conflict, it will be very hard to get back in a box.

joeysoap · 06-08-2019 08:20PM

Was listening to Miriam on the Sean O’Rourke this morning. Gregory Campbell was interviewed about no deal Brexit. Your going to lose 40,000 jobs chirps Miriam, your going to lose 80,000 replies Gregory. And so it went.

Next guest was a lecturer in some Belfast college, her first question to Miriam - why didn’t you ask him why the DUP are voting to lose 40,000 jobs. Miriam had no answer.

A Dub in Glasgo · 06-08-2019 08:22PM

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1158767410909986821

The cheek of Gove on the News saying the EU are blocking a deal

KildareP · 06-08-2019 08:24PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1158767410909986821

The cheek of Gove on the News saying the EU are blocking a deal

Must be a change of tact - I suppose Johnson refusing to negotiate with the EU unless the backstop is dropped doesn't allow him to shift blame onto the EU.

Sand · 06-08-2019 08:28PM

briany wrote: »

On the other hand, I see a flat revocation of A50 as doing absolutely nothing to salve the public anger and discontent which led to Brexit, and festering it further, and if this anger is not addressed, then you get something even worse down the road. What I would expect at the least is that the Brexit Party would be in a coalition government at the next GE.

The establishment view in the UK prior to Brexit was that they could continue on 'centrist' politics while ignoring about a third of the electorate - locking them out of power indefinitely. The only thing that broke the system was Cameron making a massive miscalculation and holding a referendum.

Were the centrists to regain power, you can be absolutely certain there will never be another referendum held. If anything, they'll work to make UK democratic system even less representative. Just carefully managed elections between two centrist parties offering essentially the same solutions to any given problem.

briany · 06-08-2019 08:33PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

If the Earth were to be invaded by a vastly superior and hostile race of aliens, intent on vaporising the entire human race within hours, I really think Labour would propose a General Election to deal with the problem. It is they who are the party of human molecular integrity. The Conservatives want to let the aliens vaporise the poor, and they want to cut the benefits for in-work single mothers!

ancapailldorcha · 06-08-2019 08:44PM

Mod: Please do not just paste links here. A post has been deleted.

Sam Russell · 06-08-2019 08:52PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1158767410909986821

The cheek of Gove on the News saying the EU are blocking a deal

I despair.

What I proposed would have Royal Commission that would have BJ Gove and Farage in jail, or at least terminally disgraced.

Enzokk · 06-08-2019 08:56PM

This is the link that was posted,

Europeans have started to change their minds on Brexit

I will highlight one quote from the article,

The moment that was admitted, the backstop could not possibly remain. The whole logic of it broke down. Now, suddenly, it was the Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar who was under pressure. Is the EU going to demand sacrifices from its member countries to push an illogical plan that only one of its tiniest countries wants? Actually, does Ireland want the backstop? Does it want to risk cutting off its second-largest export market? Estimates are that a no-deal Brexit would cost the Irish three points of GDP. In a poll for Dublin’s Sunday Independent, fewer than half of Irish people were ‘satisfied’ with Varadkar’s strategy on Brexit.

Varadkar warned that a no-deal Brexit would make Irish unification more likely. On the same principle you could just as easily argue it would lead to British unification. The common thread of everything Ireland has done in the past ten years has been to leave behind its paired obsessions of national unity and national culture. Clearly Ireland now wishes to be brought under the moral tutelage of more modern, more secular, more capitalistic powers. London is a more logical and convenient choice for that role than Brussels. This would require forgetting a lot of history, but of course forgetting history is what ‘European values’ are all about.

So according to this because of Johnson leading the way everything has changed on the continent. They realize that the backstop is a humiliation that cannot possibly to thrust upon a nation. May's deal was actually exactly what remainers wanted, even if they didn't know it according to Wolfgang Münchau of the Financial Times. Apparently that would have been a close relationship with the EU and a possibility of going back.

I think Ian Dunt put it best for this line of thinking,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1158756738482548736?s=20

The May deal was hard Brexit, no-deal is something totally different and worse than a hard Brexit.

PropJoe10 · 06-08-2019 08:57PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1158767410909986821

I've been saying it for a while, half the problem at the moment is that Labour are totally out of touch and stand for nothing. They need to get rid of Corbyn, get someone in that has an actual conviction about what they should be campaigning for and move forward and try and create an actual viable alternative to the Tories for voters.

Borderhopper · 06-08-2019 09:09PM

After several pages of trolling, I just want to say a big thanks to the mods for the job they do in keeping this thread on the straight and narrow. It’s a thankless task, and maybe they should get a bit more appreciation.

On another note, if your skill set is what I think it is, ancapaill, you would have no trouble finding highly paid work in Ireland, probably at a convenient location. Biotech and pharma are one of the jewels of the Irish economy, and anyone with significant lab based qualifications and experience would be highly sought after

Leroy42 · 06-08-2019 09:16PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1158767410909986821

The cheek of Gove on the News saying the EU are blocking a deal

It was a terrible interview. Johnson has firmly nailed his colours to the mast whilst Labour will be discussing their possible position in the coming weeks.

She even said at one stage that Corbyn wanted to represent everyone rather than actually have a position.

3 years after the vote, 2 extensions in and No Deal in 90 days and Labour are going to have a discussion!

It is exactly this that is letting the Tory and ERG have complete control. I doubt it has ever happened that a government with such a small majority has been given such little resistance from the opposition.

Mancomb Seepgood · 06-08-2019 09:18PM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

I've been saying it for a while, half the problem at the moment is that Labour are totally out of touch and stand for nothing. They need to get rid of Corbyn, get someone in that has an actual conviction about what they should be campaigning for and move forward and try and create an actual viable alternative to the Tories for voters.

The Labour Party campaigned on a distinctive, traditionally social democratic platform in 2017 which in many ways offered a real alternative to the Tories.

The problem is that on the issue of Brexit they have been incompetent and/or indifferent to a looking disaster which will completely undermine their ability to meet their objectives in the economy,education,health,renationalisation of railways and the rest of it.Even if they win an election,they will inherit a ruined economy and will have played a part in making it that way.

PropJoe10 · 06-08-2019 09:22PM

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

The Labour Party campaigned on a distinctive, traditionally social democratic platform in 2017 which in many ways offered a real alternative to the Tories.

The problem is that on the issue of Brexit they have been incompetent and/or indifferent to a looking disaster which will completely undermine their ability to meet their objectives in the economy,education,health,renationalisation of railways and the rest of it.Even if they win an election,they will inherit a ruined economy and will have played a part in making it that way.

Yep, which is why they did much better than expected in 2017, but since then the wheels have totally fallen off. They've fudged pretty much every major decision they've been faced with since then. Total lack of leadership on Brexit from Corbyn will cost them big-time.

WomanSkirtFan8 · 06-08-2019 09:25PM

Enzokk wrote: »

This is the link that was posted,

Europeans have started to change their minds on Brexit

I will highlight one quote from the article,

So according to this because of Johnson leading the way everything has changed on the continent. They realize that the backstop is a humiliation that cannot possibly to thrust upon a nation. May's deal was actually exactly what remainers wanted, even if they didn't know it according to Wolfgang Münchau of the Financial Times. Apparently that would have been a close relationship with the EU and a possibility of going back.

I think Ian Dunt put it best for this line of thinking,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1158756738482548736?s=20

The May deal was hard Brexit, no-deal is something totally different and worse than a hard Brexit.

Forget that crap. That's a Pro-Brexit and Anti-EU publication and tbh would probably be of most use on a fire. :rolleyes:

BonnieSituation · 06-08-2019 09:33PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

^^^
I want to move to Berlin!!

I am a very exposed to this, I have a job interview next week for a pretty good job in Dublin but any savings I had hoped to use is getting decimated by the Sterling loss

Best of luck with it.

You'll have to change your username to "A Wegie in Dublin" though!

BonnieSituation · 06-08-2019 09:49PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Possibly. I think Johnson would be better than May at getting such a deal through. The ERG would still be against it but as you say, with enough Labour MPs, it might get through.

On the other hand, he's also said that the WA is dead and putting a piece of territory into a special zone is still problematic for any country even without the complexities of the North.

I've still got a feeling it will be something else entirely if it is not going to be a hard brexit. I could be wrong but we'll see. Hard brexit still most likely outcome imo.

The UK is full of special zones and areas and has jurisdictional anomalies all over the shop. If anything an NI only backstop is right up their alley.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Comments