Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha · 06-08-2019 03:11PM

ambro25 wrote: »

If you're not IT or finance (assets management/insurance trader/corpo.banking) not that much.

But they're crying out for good teachers, and the (very young & very well funded) University seems to always have requirements for good/experienced staff.

Yeah, figured. My background is biological sciences research which is unfortunately not terribly sought after or lucrative.

maynooth_rules · 06-08-2019 03:14PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think Johnson will ask to extend A50. He's staked too much on leaving on the stated date.

Nor will the WA be accepted before that date. Johnson does not have the power to push it through parliament.

Nor will the EU blink and accept a renegotiation.

This means Brexit of some sort in October unless Johnson and his government is removed. I think, however, Johnson will pull a fast one at the last minute. Something that no one is expecting.

Backstop confined completly to Northern Ireland. Essentially the WA other than that. DUP thrown under the bus but may get brexit through with enough support from Labour MPs worried about their seats in leave areas. Then election in November with Borris saying he had delivered brexit. Sammy Wilson to turn an all new colour of red

Joe_ Public · 06-08-2019 03:21PM

I suspect people are overstating the likelihood of Johnson ploughing down a NI only backstop furrow. For every stray Labour vote he'd pick up, he'd alienate at least two of his own party's and pick an almighty fight with the likes of Gove which would spell trouble for him. I agree on the surface it looks an attractive enough option in a field with so few of them, but ultimately i dont think it leads to anywhere productive. The lesser risk for Johnson is doing absolutely nothing and seeing what happens.

Bit cynical · 06-08-2019 03:23PM

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Backstop confined completly to Northern Ireland. Essentially the WA other than that. DUP thrown under the bus but may get brexit through with enough support from Labour MPs worried about their seats in leave areas. Then election in November with Borris saying he had delivered brexit. Sammy Wilson to turn an all new colour of red

Possibly. I think Johnson would be better than May at getting such a deal through. The ERG would still be against it but as you say, with enough Labour MPs, it might get through.

On the other hand, he's also said that the WA is dead and putting a piece of territory into a special zone is still problematic for any country even without the complexities of the North.

I've still got a feeling it will be something else entirely if it is not going to be a hard brexit. I could be wrong but we'll see. Hard brexit still most likely outcome imo.

Mr.Wemmick · 06-08-2019 03:24PM

The UK need to continue on this road now and have their brexit mess delivered to them by their own hand.

All the advice, the honest realistic upfront views presented to all from business heads and experts to ex-politicians with oodles of experience has fallen on deaf ears.

They do not want to know.. they need to fail, big time. Or this will never fully go away.

Simply put: how can they have an overblown imaginary fight with the EU bloc and fail to see that their largest trading partner is there for their benefit.

The never ending stupidity of this situation is truly gobsmacking.

Seth Brundle · 06-08-2019 03:25PM

Given the speculation about NI staying in the CU & SM, what will the ERG have to say?
As this will effectively shaft their DUP friends, will they back that proposal?

Bigus · 06-08-2019 03:25PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Yeah, figured. My background is biological sciences research which is unfortunately not terribly sought after or lucrative.

Could you retrain for one of the many new bilion euro bio pharma plants just after been built here in Ireland , they’re crying out for high end people, according to my friend who’s been putting together the infrastructure. Bristol Meyer Squib, etc

storker · 06-08-2019 03:31PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Given the speculation about NI staying in the CU & SM, what will the ERG have to say?
As this will effectively shaft their DUP friends, will they back that proposal?

I'd say they will. No sacrifice is too great in the name of Cthulhu, I mean, Brexit.

VinLieger · 06-08-2019 03:32PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Given the speculation about NI staying in the CU & SM, what will the ERG have to say?
As this will effectively shaft their DUP friends, will they back that proposal?

"Friends", the ERG would drop them in it tomorrow if it got them what they wanted.

To answer the question though no I don't think they would as they smell a no deal so now that's all they will settle for.

ambro25 · 06-08-2019 03:33PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Yeah, figured. My background is biological sciences research which is unfortunately not terribly sought after or lucrative.

There's a bit of bio R&D ongoing here, but it's still only slowly building (syndrome of young universities in the chicken-&-egg situation, trying to lure high-profile academics).

More bioinformatics than biological as such, esp. secure medical analysis/devices (crossover with finance/banking security).

ancapailldorcha · 06-08-2019 03:35PM

Bigus wrote: »

Could you retrain for one of the many new bilion euro bio pharma plants just after been built here in Ireland , they’re crying out for high end people, according to my friend who’s been putting together the infrastructure. Bristol Meyer Squib, etc

Thanks Bigus. I might look into that.

Anyway, I think I've reached the point where I'm derailing the thread so I'd better stop.

Nody · 06-08-2019 03:38PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Possibly. I think Johnson would be better than May at getting such a deal through. The ERG would still be against it but as you say, with enough Labour MPs, it might get through.

On the other hand, he's also said that the WA is dead and putting a piece of territory into a special zone is still problematic for any country even without the complexities of the North.

I've still got a feeling it will be something else entirely if it is not going to be a hard brexit. I could be wrong but we'll see. Hard brexit still most likely outcome imo.

Except of course when they want to go and create 10 free trade zones; then it's perfectly fine :P

Bit cynical · 06-08-2019 03:53PM

Nody wrote: »

Except of course when they want to go and create 10 free trade zones; then it's perfectly fine :P

True but these are normally very confined areas, not an entire province.

Bit cynical · 06-08-2019 03:54PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Heh the EU should scrap backstop and bring it back under different name, Northern Ireland Democratic Free Trade Area

The subject to EU rules and regulations trade area.
The Brussels Trading Exclave.

briany · 06-08-2019 03:58PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

The subject to EU rules and regulations trade area.
The Brussels Trading Exclave.

Could probably get that one past the general public, but not the ERG. they've positioned themselves as the vanguard of the revolution.

Professor Moriarty · 06-08-2019 04:06PM

briany wrote: »

Could probably get that one past the general public, but not the ERG. they've positioned themselves as the vanguard of the revolution.

In reality, the ERG don't give a damn about NI. England first, second and third.

ilovesmybrick · 06-08-2019 04:13PM

Joe_ Public wrote:

Talking of public transport, i read an article about Vienna recently in which it was mentioned that residents pay E1 per day for their travel pass, or E365 for an annual pass. The prices for tourists or other day trippers are fairly steep, which helps subsidize it. As far as i know their public transport systems dont run huge deficits like those here or across the pond. Go figure.

365 for the year and for zone's into other states its another couple of hundred a year, though the government heavily subsidises it,about 700 million a year. The idea is that public transport is a public service, not a profit making enterprise. Its actually not bad for tourists, you're looking at around 16 quid for a week pass, though if you're caught without a valid ticket they can be pretty unforgiving.

swampgas · 06-08-2019 04:45PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Plus he's still got to get the overall WA through parliament and with Labour against it and a significant minority in his own party against it, that is very unlikely. And although he voted for it in the last vote, I think he did so knowing it would lose. I don't think he's a big fan of the WA either. What he's doing is making a virtue out of something he's more or less forced into.

Therefore if it is not a hard brexit, it will be something that no one is expecting.

On top of that I strongly suspect that Jeremy Corbyn is doing all he can (by doing nothing at all as opposition leader) to enable a hard or no-deal Brexit. He has always been against the EU, has always opposed membership, and has always stuck to his principles. He was the first party leader to call for Article 50 to be invoked, the day after the referendum result. He won't come out and actually admit that he's in favour of crashing out, but everything he does seems to confirm it.

Between Jeremy Corbyn, the DUP, the ERG, and a reckless Johnson as PM, I think a No Deal Brexit is the most likely outcome.

Sam Russell · 06-08-2019 04:58PM

swampgas wrote: »

Between Jeremy Corbyn, the DUP, the ERG, and a reckless Johnson as PM, I think a No Deal Brexit is the most likely outcome.

Well, they still have exactly the same three options, plus asking for a delay to get a second ref.

I think a second referendum is a dead duck because however it goes, it does not kill Brexit off. Say it goes 52:48 to remain, how can that be 'democratic', or the 'will of the people' ? (would say the Breiteers). It cannot be allowed to continue to devour UK politics, so no. The time for that has passed.

The WA is a bad deal, in that it gives little benefit to the UK, but takes a lot away. Many of the current trade deals will not roll over, but new ones require EU standards, so no chlorinated chicken. So they are worse off.

I think, if the HoC want to stop a No Deal, they have to vote NC in Gov, then create a Gov on National Unity, revoke Art 50, then pass legislation to make a second Brexit process impossible by requiring a two thirds majority for Art 50 to be invoked. Now a future HoC can overturn such a law, but it would require a majority in the HoL which might be a little tricky.

Will the HoC be able to do it?

Professor Moriarty · 06-08-2019 05:02PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, they still have exactly the same three options, plus asking for a delay to get a second ref.

I think a second referendum is a dead duck because however it goes, it does not kill Brexit off. Say it goes 52:48 to remain, how can that be 'democratic', or the 'will of the people' ? (would say the Breiteers). It cannot be allowed to continue to devour UK politics, so no. The time for that has passed.

The WA is a bad deal, in that it gives little benefit to the UK, but takes a lot away. Many of the current trade deals will not roll over, but new ones require EU standards, so no chlorinated chicken. So they are worse off.

I think, if the HoC want to stop a No Deal, they have to vote NC in Gov, then create a Gov on National Unity, revoke Art 50, then pass legislation to make a second Brexit process impossible by requiring a two thirds majority for Art 50 to be invoked. Now a future HoC can overturn such a law, but it would require a majority in the HoL which might be a little tricky.

Will the HoC be able to do it?

I think that would bring arch Leave voters out on to the streets. Those without zimmer frames would be quite truculent. Their democratic entitlement to vote themselves out of a job must be respected.

20silkcut · 06-08-2019 05:07PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, they still have exactly the same three options, plus asking for a delay to get a second ref.

I think a second referendum is a dead duck because however it goes, it does not kill Brexit off. Say it goes 52:48 to remain, how can that be 'democratic', or the 'will of the people' ? (would say the Breiteers). It cannot be allowed to continue to devour UK politics, so no. The time for that has passed.

The WA is a bad deal, in that it gives little benefit to the UK, but takes a lot away. Many of the current trade deals will not roll over, but new ones require EU standards, so no chlorinated chicken. So they are worse off.

I think, if the HoC want to stop a No Deal, they have to vote NC in Gov, then create a Gov on National Unity, revoke Art 50, then pass legislation to make a second Brexit process impossible by requiring a two thirds majority for Art 50 to be invoked. Now a future HoC can overturn such a law, but it would require a majority in the HoL which might be a little tricky.

Will the HoC be able to do it?

A referendum on the type of Brexit with remain not an option might work.
Such a drastic action as a no deal brexit should be put to a public vote.
If the mandate is there for a no deal brexit it should be confirmed by a referendum.

One simple question, should the Uk leave the EU without a deal in place?
Yes/no
If that mandate fails to materialize then all sorts of can kicking can ensue.

Joe_ Public · 06-08-2019 05:08PM

I think it's unfair to suggest of Corbyn that he is a hard brexiteer who secretly wants a no deal crash-out. I know quite a few people hold this view, and i've seen it written by at least one serious commentator, but i dont believe it and i dont believe i've seen a scintilla of evidence in support of it in the 3 years since the referendum. I think corbyn can be criticised for many things, he has been weak on all the main issues no question, but the criticism can be overdone and the media, right and left, certainly does him no favours. On Sky earlier, i saw a presenter actually shoehorn Corbyn into a discussion about the mass shootings in texas. Nice work, i thought. Job securely done there!

Joe_ Public · 06-08-2019 05:14PM

20silkcut wrote: »

A referendum on the type of Brexit with remain not an option might work.
Such a drastic action as a no deal brexit should be put to a public vote.
If the mandate is there for a no deal brexit it should be confirmed by a referendum.

If that mandate fails to materialize then all sorts of can kicking can ensue.

Bottom line for me is that a second referendum remains the most democratic option available to them, and we all know how they love to prattle on about "democracy" over there at the moment. It only works with a remain option, though, otherwise you are effectively disenfranchising probably more than half of the electorate. It's not straightforward, but there's no straightforward option available anyway. Absolutely agree that in no way should a no deal outcome just be let happen because they could come up with nothing else. That is simply ludicrous and represents only the start of their problems. The ball remains in their court. The sane people have to rescue the situation before the erg fanatics really start to wreak havoc.

20silkcut · 06-08-2019 05:21PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Bottom line for me is that a second referendum remains the most democratic option available to them, and we all know how they love to prattle on about "democracy" over there at the moment. It only works with a remain option, though, otherwise you are effectively disenfranchising probably more than half of the electorate. It's not straightforward, but there's no straightforward option available anyway. Absolutely agree that in no way should a no deal outcome just be let happen because they could come up with nothing else. That is simply ludicrous and represents only the start of their problems. The ball remains in their court. The sane people have to rescue the situation before the erg fanatics really start to wreak havoc.

I agree remain should be on the ballot paper. However I feel it is a beaten docket at this stage. It was defeated in 2016. Since then Remain has failed to capture any sort of public imagination over there.
Bar the march in London. No charismatic leaders have emerged to champion its cause. Remainers have not got their house in order and have allowed the nutters to steal all the limelight.
A soft brexit/ long transition is the only hope at this stage. Getting any kind of referendum would be a huge achievement at this stage. And brexit type is the only plausible one in my opinion.
Killing off no deal in a public vote is nearly as good as remaining at this stage. The EU could offer an unlimited extension.
Then they could have a sane debate about their future relationship with the EU without a ticking time bomb to disaster in the background.

briany · 06-08-2019 05:30PM

A referendum with a hard or soft exit choice would be the best compromise. The UK is politically paralysed until it can find some sort of workable consensus on this thing, and a soft, sensible exit would be that compromise, IMO. Neither side gets all of what they want, but they each get some of what they want.

Strazdas · 06-08-2019 05:35PM

briany wrote: »

A referendum with a hard or soft exit choice would be the best compromise. The UK is politically paralysed until it can find some sort of workable consensus on this thing, and a soft, sensible exit would be that compromise, IMO. Neither side gets all of what they want, but they each get some of what they want.

I cannot see No Deal on a ballot paper. It would involve the UK taking a sledgehammer to all its agreements with the EU and being nearly in a hostile stand off with them....a quite bizarre thing to vote on in a referendum.

Kermit.de.frog · 06-08-2019 05:35PM

Nothing like a bit of the old racism from the leave side.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1158760843779149824

They seem to be becoming increasingly obsessed with Varadkar. This is not surprising as a) he is pretty much the only one articulating the EU position in public at the moment and b) some of the other actors/targets like Juncker, Tusk...are leaving the stage.

This is part of the reason he is taking so much abuse from UK tory media and leave voters.

Professor Moriarty · 06-08-2019 05:38PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Nothing like a bit of the old racism from the leave side.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1158760843779149824

They seem to be becoming increasingly obsessed with Varadkar. This is not surprising as a) he is pretty much the only one articulating the EU position in public at the moment and b) some of the other actors/targets like Juncker, Tusk...are leaving the stage.

This is part of the reason he is taking so much abuse from UK tory media and leave voters.

Hope somebody forwards that to the EU commission. Important to remind them what they are dealing with.

boggerman1 · 06-08-2019 05:41PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Nothing like a bit of the old racism from the leave side.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1158760843779149824

They seem to be becoming increasingly obsessed with Varadkar. This is not surprising as a) he is pretty much the only one articulating the EU position in public at the moment and b) some of the other actors/targets like Juncker, Tusk...are leaving the stage.

This is part of the reason he is taking so much abuse from UK tory media and leave voters.

Was listening to Eamon dunphy's podcast earlier.he had that great oirish man Brendan O'Neill from spiked on .god he can't disguise his ill feelings towards Leo.Leo,the EU,remoaners the usual suspects to blame for the cock-up that brexit was /is

BobbyBobberson · 06-08-2019 06:02PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Was listening to Eamon dunphy's podcast earlier.he had that great oirish man Brendan O'Neill from spiked on .god he can't disguise his ill feelings towards Leo.Leo,the EU,remoaners the usual suspects to blame for the cock-up that brexit was /is

Dunphy is a poor when it comes to leavers. He had Liam Halligan on before and just let him talk gibberish without challenging him. I never listen to his podcast after that actually.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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