Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BobbyBobberson · 05-08-2019 08:49PM

lawred2 wrote: »

I know the likes of Ryanair take a nice slice of commission for the convenience of booking in your own currency for a non EUR flight but even with that I just booked a flight with Ryanir where the EUR to GBP conversion was parity..

I've never seen that before

Parents shop in Enniskillen and said many traders just taking euro cash on parity. Car parks full of cars from the Republic.

Water John · 05-08-2019 09:10PM

It's going full Brexit unless HOC stops it. EU recognise its what's going to happen.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/05/no-deal-brexit-is-boris-johnsons-central-scenario-eu-told

Enzokk · 05-08-2019 09:21PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

We all have wondered just what the bloody hell the DUP are at.

Jonathan Powell, the GFA negotiatior, said in the times today he’s fairly sure Johnson is going to work be rid of them. I wonder do they realise this?

What the DUP should realize is that the UK going for a border in the Irish Sea is the closest they will get to their ideal Brexit deal. That way they can keep to their side of the GFA (mostly I guess), without kicking it off with the nationalists. They would also then be able to get their free trade deals to try and make sense of Brexit or at least try to defend it that way.

Leroy42 · 05-08-2019 09:28PM

Water John wrote: »

It's going full Brexit unless HOC stops it. EU recognise its what's going to happen.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/05/no-deal-brexit-is-boris-johnsons-central-scenario-eu-told

I think they have left it too late. They had ample opportunity previously to stop the madness but always seemed to give the benefit of the doubt to TM, Johnson or the ERG.

They have been conned into this by working under the assumption that sanity would prevail at some point, when in reality Johnson, JRM et al have no intention of backing down. They saw their chance and doubled down.

Even the likes of Grieve dropped a proposed vote because of a promise from TM. A promise she uturned on immediately after the vote was pulled.

Water John · 05-08-2019 09:33PM

They probably have only one shot, vote of no confidence linked in some way to instruct (know they can't force), to seek an extension.
Kenneth Clarke and some more have no compunction in bringing down the Govn't.

careless sherpa · 05-08-2019 09:38PM

Enzokk wrote: »

What the DUP should realize is that the UK going for a border in the Irish Sea is the closest they will get to their ideal Brexit deal. That way they can keep to their side of the GFA (mostly I guess), without kicking it off with the nationalists. They would also then be able to get their free trade deals to try and make sense of Brexit or at least try to defend it that way.

The problem with that is that the DUP have never had much interest in keeping to their side of the GFA. They would prefer to cosign it to the dustbin

Stop moaning ffs · 05-08-2019 09:42PM

Worth a read. Explores the options open to stopping brexit.

https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1158359828760342528?s=21

BluePlanet · 05-08-2019 10:04PM

Very unlikely i think.
Neverminding the disaster capitalists of the Tory's; i think the real missed opportunity here is Labour.

They should have been the party of Remain and hammered that message home.
Seems like Opposition has been missing in action since the get-go; now it's too late.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-08-2019 10:08PM

The pro Brexit UK media are feverish tomorrow.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/05/no-deal-brexit-now-expected-boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-sets/

They sense no deal is inevitable and their time has come.

lawred2 · 05-08-2019 10:11PM

Time to let them go now. They are intent on self destruction at the behest of disaster capitalism.

I never thought I'd see such madness.

Ben Done · 05-08-2019 10:18PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Time to let them go now. They are intent on self destruction at the behest of disaster capitalism.

I never thought I'd see such madness.

Much as I dread the fallout that will affect friends and family here and in the UK, I look forward to the reckoning that awaits the ones for whom "there's a special place in hell", in Donald Tusk's memorable phrase (the list must be in the hundreds by now - you can count the sensible Tories on one hand, for starters).

What weasel words will they use when the house of cards falls and their lies upon lies are exposed?

trellheim · 05-08-2019 10:18PM

I was drawing some parallels between the stock market in the US today, and the UK economy in a post-31-october , US stocks have fallen at a huge rate today, All china had to do was devalue their own currency.

reality hit the bluster like the iceberg hit the Titanic

As for stopping no-deal I cant see a procedural way forward without a lot more unity and even then SF would need to resign their seats, let remainers win the byes, thus neutralizing the DUP and freeing Johnsons hand to accept the WA although thats a massive stretch

With Steve Baker and other hawks sitting above the fray the positions are now hardened.

Here's the numbers

Government side
311 (con) + DUP (10)= 321

All the rest

Labour (247) +SNP (35) + LibDem (13) = 295

295 + 16 Independent + 5 Ind for change = 316

Add 4 Plaid Cymru + 1 Green Party = 321

All Adds up to 642. There are 650 seats, of which the eight missing are SF and the Speaker

Water John · 05-08-2019 10:25PM

Conservative do not have 311. Would be under 300 IWT on the precipice.

declanflynn · 05-08-2019 10:32PM

Ben Done wrote: »

lawred2 wrote: »

Time to let them go now. They are intent on self destruction at the behest of disaster capitalism.

I never thought I'd see such madness.

Much as I dread the fallout that will affect friends and family here and in the UK, I look forward to the reckoning that awaits the ones for whom "there's a special place in hell", in Donald Tusk's memorable phrase (the list must be in the hundreds by now - you can count the sensible Tories on one hand, for starters).

What weasel words will they use when the house of cards falls and their lies upon lies are exposed?

Agree fully, we will have a few cuts but the brits will have open wounds all over their bodies

road_high · 05-08-2019 10:42PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The pro Brexit UK media are feverish tomorrow.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/05/no-deal-brexit-now-expected-boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-sets/

They sense no deal is inevitable and their time has come.

Trying to paint it as if the EU are the ones bothered about the whole thing. All they’re doing is very sensibly preparing for no deal damage limitation. Can the same be said of the loons they are supposed to have as representatives? I doubt it

strandroad · 05-08-2019 10:43PM

Water John wrote: »

It's going full Brexit unless HOC stops it. EU recognise its what's going to happen.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/05/no-deal-brexit-is-boris-johnsons-central-scenario-eu-told

I'm afraid that Boris Johnson is just the person to deliver a no deal Brexit; there is a reason why he is where he is right now. If you want to profit from a nuclear Brexit and all the subsequent tremors plus eventual deregulation, it's an inspired move to install a PM with no integrity, who stands for nothing and who walked away from various disasters in his past absolutely unperturbed but surely happy to collect new amusing stories to tell. That Time When Boris Banjaxed Brexit: for him it's just another comic routine.

trellheim · 05-08-2019 10:43PM

Water John wrote: »

Conservative do not have 311. Would be under 300 IWT on the precipice.

I'm quoting official numbers https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/

Russman · 05-08-2019 10:45PM

So, let’s say the worst happens and they crash out on 31st Oct. How long do we
think before it really bites and they need a deal ASAP ? And given how they’ve carried on, would the EU be minded or likely to say “fine, pay your dues, fix the border, then take a ticket and get in line, we’ll get back to you in, ohh, let’s call it 2 years.......” ?
Surely the Brexiters can’t seriously expect the last 3 years to be forgotten and go straight into FTA discussions ?

Water John · 05-08-2019 10:55PM

All depends and everything will wait until after a GE.

L1011 · 05-08-2019 10:55PM

trellheim wrote: »

I'm quoting official numbers https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/

One of those "Independents" is a suspended Tory who votes with them at all times. Another is Brexit supporter Frank Field

Hoey amongst others could not be trusted to vote against Boris in a confidence vote either

trellheim · 05-08-2019 11:08PM

Granted. But on the other side of that fence is Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve for example so I am hoping the rebels on each side balance out

upupup · 05-08-2019 11:12PM

Leaving with no deal may be the best option now for the Tories and for us.
Leave without a deal and they are out of the EU and the Brexit party is no more.
The Tories get back their power and win an election.NI backstop agreed and proceed to the trade talks.
A few weeks of madness at Dover and all settled for xmas

Uk happy:)
EU happy:)
Arlene and co:mad:

prawnsambo · 05-08-2019 11:21PM

upupup wrote: »

Leaving with no deal may be the best option now for the Tories and for us.
Leave without a deal and they are out of the EU and the Brexit party is no more.
The Tories get back their power and win an election.NI backstop agreed and proceed to the trade talks.
A few weeks of madness at Dover and all settled for xmas

Uk happy:)
EU happy:)
Arlene and co:mad:

A trade deal will take years. The madness will continue.

trellheim · 05-08-2019 11:21PM

Leaving with no deal may be the best option now for the Tories and for us.
Leave without a deal and they are out of the EU and the Brexit party is no more.
The Tories get back their power and win an election.NI backstop agreed and proceed to the trade talks.
A few weeks of madness at Dover and all settled for xmas

What ? If they are out no-deal its a new trade deal no grandfathering, the fishing rights alone will take years to work out not to mentioning the governing law , theres no upside at all ...

Edit : Prawnsambo got in with the same point first , people are badly miscategorizing the level of poo hitting the fan here

ThePanjandrum · 05-08-2019 11:23PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Worth a read. Explores the options open to stopping brexit.

https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1158359828760342528?s=21

I think I can safely say that Howarth's arguments are desperately weak. Probably the only way Brexit could be stopped is by revoking Article 50 and that is not going to happen. MPs in their hundreds would be signing their death warrants in a subsequent election. The Brexit party could well win a majority if this happened.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 05-08-2019 11:24PM

I think the government should plan for an early budget based on a no deal Brexit. Would also be a good move to put €1 billion aside for a no deal scenario (if that's possible).

If no deal doesn't happen then the budget can be reevaluated.

KildareP · 05-08-2019 11:26PM

upupup wrote: »

Leaving with no deal may be the best option now for the Tories and for us.
Leave without a deal and they are out of the EU and the Brexit party is no more.
The Tories get back their power and win an election.NI backstop agreed and proceed to the trade talks.
A few weeks of madness at Dover and all settled for xmas

Uk happy:)
EU happy:)
Arlene and co:mad:

Sadly I don't think it will be over and done with anytime soon.

Looks like No Deal is a dead cert at this stage - granted.
Let's go with your outline of events:

UK under severe pressure.
Seeks FTA with EU - goes with all demands laid down just to get a deal.
Calm restored again. Arlene & Co shafted.
Brexit Party align with DUP to attack Tories for delivering a "sell out Brexit".
Trade talks begin with USA in effort to show UK new found independence.
Demands set down by USA incompatible with limitations of EU FTA causing deadlock.
EU comes under attack once again for holding Britain to ransom with its rules and regs.

Brexit Season 2 begins

The alternatives:
Border in the Sea - ERG, BP and DUP denounce it as a "sell out Brexit". A pure Brexit exercise will begin in earnest.
No EU FTA can be done - continued attack on Ireland and EU in effort to achieve a climb down as are currently happening now.
WA is signed - temporary trade order restored, political crisis will start. Tories gone. BP, ERG, DUP, immediately start the process of compaigning to unravel the bits they dislike.
Revoke - Article 50 Take 2 will immediately start with more vengeance than ever before by the BP, ERG, DUP.

All roads lead to nowhere.

ThePanjandrum · 05-08-2019 11:30PM

trellheim wrote: »

I was drawing some parallels between the stock market in the US today, and the UK economy in a post-31-october , US stocks have fallen at a huge rate today, All china had to do was devalue their own currency.

reality hit the bluster like the iceberg hit the Titanic

As for stopping no-deal I cant see a procedural way forward without a lot more unity and even then SF would need to resign their seats, let remainers win the byes, thus neutralizing the DUP and freeing Johnsons hand to accept the WA although thats a massive stretch

With Steve Baker and other hawks sitting above the fray the positions are now hardened.

Here's the numbers

Government side
311 (con) + DUP (10)= 321

All the rest

Labour (247) +SNP (35) + LibDem (13) = 295

295 + 16 Independent + 5 Ind for change = 316

Add 4 Plaid Cymru + 1 Green Party = 321

All Adds up to 642. There are 650 seats, of which the eight missing are SF and the Speaker

For some reason you assume that all the independents would vote against no deal, they would not. Also Kate Hoey would not vote against no deal and neither would a number of Labour MPs who are vulnerable to the Brexit party.

Apart from that, MPs cannot prevent leaving with no deal unless they revoke Article 50 and they will not do this.

trellheim · 05-08-2019 11:31PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I think I can safely say that Howarth's arguments are desperately weak. Probably the only way Brexit could be stopped is by revoking Article 50 and that is not going to happen. MPs in their hundreds would be signing their death warrants in a subsequent election. The Brexit party could well win a majority if this happened.

This has been going through my mind as well. The vote to invoke A50 was 498 to 114

Revoking A50 would reset a two year clock though before they could go again but... as TP says above the carnage in the constituencies would be severe

Edit : As I said above there are rebels on both sides , plenty of horrified Tories

Stop moaning ffs · 05-08-2019 11:37PM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I think the government should plan for an early budget based on a no deal Brexit. Would also be a good move to put €1 billion aside for a no deal scenario (if that's possible).

If no deal doesn't happen then the budget can be reevaluated.

Government here are preparing a no deal brexit budget to be confirmed in September I believe. Heard paschal say this on that brexit podcast I linked to previously

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Comments