Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

pixelburp · 05-08-2019 02:27PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes, a country of some 60 million is not exactly a minnow in the global trading environment.

If politics is presentation, then Westminster is presenting an image of chaotic and slipshod governance, coupled with an eagerness to tear up existing trade deals (the existing exit agreement, and, more critically, the GFA). Hardly a smart move when approaching other nations to organise trade. It effectively says "we can't be trusted to honour a deal".

Their relative population is immaterial when the heads of state are showing themselves as out of touch and incapable of dealing with the realities of being "a 3rd country". There's a presumption at play that may cost their economy dearly.

road_high · 05-08-2019 02:37PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, a country of some 60 million is not exactly a minnow in the global trading environment.

That didn’t stop Russia imploding in on itself post USSR. Some would argue that it’s never really recovered from the fallout. Was the worlds second biggest economy st the time

MarinersBlues · 05-08-2019 02:49PM

joe40 wrote: »

The British press and even Eoghan Harris in the independent are very critical of the Irish government stance on the backstop, with Varadker coming in for particular scorn.
But is the backstop purely an Irish concern.

I mean if the Irish government were to say ok abolish the backstop, would the rest of the EU say ok that will be fine amend the WA and trust the British promise of no need for a border.

Surely border integrity and single market standars are vital for all EU countries.

Harris refers to "Vardakers backstop" as if Leo is unliaterly imposing this agreement on the UK on his own.
Both Harris and large elements of the British press are delibertly diverting debate away from the fact that the backstop was negotiated by both the UK and the EU.

It is part of a broad pro Brexit campaign strategy that builds most of their arguements on a false premise.
For example:
the "undemocratic backstop" was negotiated and agreed to by a democratically elected British gevernment.
There has never been a border - There was
No-one will implement a border - It will have to be implemented if there is no deal

The premise for many of the Brexit campaign arguements rarley get challenged on current affairs programs in Britain, which means most debates become a farce not remotley grounded in the real world.

ancapailldorcha · 05-08-2019 02:52PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, a country of some 60 million is not exactly a minnow in the global trading environment.

Of course it is. Look at the world's powers - the US, India and China along with the development of large regional trading blocs in Latin America and Africa. Post Brexit Britain won't have much to offer when you consider the devastation that's about to be wrought on its citizens so the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg can make another million or two.

Leroy42 · 05-08-2019 03:09PM

But the argument is not whether Brexit Britain will continue to trade, but what level and on what basis it does so.

It comes down to ones understanding of whether being in the EU has actually benefited the UK in terms of trade. From everything that I have looked at it would appear that it certainly has gained significantly from its membership of the EU.

That is tacitly accepted by Brexiteers since they want a FTA with the EU, thus acknowledging that having a FT relationship with the EU is something even they accept as beneficial.

So will leaving the EU be detrimental to the economy of the UK? Yes, I have still yet to head a reasonable argument that says that Brexit will be beneficial to the UK economy.

On the while narrative around No Deal, and the attached we must respect the 'will of the people'. IT is very much saying that the politicians have failed to actually achieve anything but rather than accept failure they will simply give up and let the country pay the price. It is a very odd situation to be in.

Enzokk · 05-08-2019 03:14PM

Just a few tweets I found interesting this morning. The first one has been posted by ancapailldorcha already about Crispin Odey being a donor to Boris Johnson but he has also bet against UK firms in a no-deal Brexit. He made a lot of money betting against the GBP during the referendum as well.

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1157967925925597184?s=20

To continue on the theme on Boris Johnson, here we have his promise of Brexit money to the NHS being nothing more than the NHS was promised before but held back. Apparently the NHS was promised £1.1b if they cut costs to spend on infrastructure but then when it was time to pay the money was withheld. So now Johnson has released this money again and it is the bulk of the extra money he has promised to the NHS. Some sneaky politicking going on here from the Tories. This is a thread if you want to open and read it.

https://twitter.com/sallygainsbury/status/1158041665736761344?s=20

And a final tweet to just get frustrated by,

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1158277729223159809?s=20

So Matt Hancock was of the opinion that parliament could stop no-deal. Seems that he has received new information and now he has changed his mind and is of the opinion that it cannot be stopped by parliament any longer.

Funny that, receiving new information and being allowed to change your mind. I bet he doesn't even see the irony of him using this as justification.

McGiver · 05-08-2019 03:18PM

murphaph wrote:

The Danes do it as well. Rare enough to see a Europlate Danish car.

They are "English lite" in fact. Many similarities to the English - former colonial empire, maritime nation as well, almost all their colonies gone, somewhat nationalist and exceptionalist as the English. Not a coincidence that they have an opt-out from the Euro (albeit it's only a show in reality)

But unlike England, they are much smaller, they are totally tied to the Single Market, thelargest EU economy at their doorstep, they have solid manufacturing base actually and hence they understand that the EU is a necessity. Key differences.

Not sure if the lack of EU plates is linked to this or not, but I'd say it is follows some of the Danish patterns I've observed.

BonnieSituation · 05-08-2019 03:26PM

murphaph wrote: »

The Danes do it as well. Rare enough to see a Europlate Danish car.

Fair. I don't see a lot of Danish cars. But still, it's not quite on the level of British exceptionalism.

reslfj · 05-08-2019 04:23PM

murphaph wrote: »

The Danes do it as well. Rare enough to see a Europlate Danish car.

Denmark has a new IT system for car registration under development for many years and Euro plates were not possible before the new IT system was ready in late 2009.
Car owners can choose between the new Euro and the original design (plus DK label) as nobody wanted to hurt emotions with eurosceptic voters. Today most new plates in Denmark seems to be of the Euro model.

As cars are very highly taxed in Denmark the have an average lifetime of 14-18 years (depending on make and model). Many cars registered before late 2009 will be on the roads for years to come.

Lars

BluePlanet · 05-08-2019 04:27PM

EU buyers said to be shunning long-term contracts with UK meat suppliers over no-deal Brexit fears

European Union-based buyers are not committing to long-term contracts with UK meat suppliers over fears of no-deal Brexit tariffs, according to industry body the British Meat Processors Association (BMPA).

"This means that, come 31 October, British meat companies, who are now being forced to export day to day at 'spot prices', could have the rug pulled from under them and see orders simply cease with no long-term supply contracts to soften the blow."

https://www.just-food.com/news/eu-buyers-said-to-be-shunning-long-term-contracts-with-uk-meat-suppliers-over-no-deal-brexit-fears_id141978.aspx?utm_source=article-feed&utm_medium=rss-feed&utm_campaign=rss-feed

Looks as though the meat industry are already moving business in advance of Brexit.

brickster69 · 05-08-2019 04:40PM

Ireland the worst performing stock market on earth since BJ got in.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/markets/for-ireland-plc-pain-of-no-deal-brexit-is-starting-to-hit-home/ar-AAFjpMH?ocid=st

jm08 · 05-08-2019 04:47PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Fair. I don't see a lot of Danish cars. But still, it's not quite on the level of British exceptionalism.

I think the issue for English people in particular is that their culture has been adopted by everyone else, so that they are basically left with the blue passports, and the £ that provides them with a unique identity. Everyone speaks English, everyone plays soccer (and are better than they are at it), many countries play cricket (and are usually better than they are).

The Welsh have their own language and rugby is the national game. The Scots (and Irish) are also quite distinctive in that they have a distincive national dress (kilt), music (bagpipes) and their own language as well.

We are lucky that we have our language and our gaelic sports, traditional music and dance, that losing the green passport and the IR£ wasn't really a big deal to us. As for the EC car stickers - I think Irish people were happy to have those during the troubles when travelling abroad.

declanflynn · 05-08-2019 04:47PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

The same can be said for Britain outside the EU.

Yes, a country of some 60 million is not exactly a minnow in the global trading environment.

I wonder?

Kermit.de.frog · 05-08-2019 05:01PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Ireland the worst performing stock market on earth since BJ got in.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/markets/for-ireland-plc-pain-of-no-deal-brexit-is-starting-to-hit-home/ar-AAFjpMH?ocid=st

Sterling the worst performing currency.

FT report some international firms have this week begun refusing to be paid in sterling.

reslfj · 05-08-2019 05:10PM

declanflynn wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, a country of some 60 million is not exactly a minnow in the global trading environment.

I wonder?

Don't - declanflynn is - wildly - over estimating the UK's post-Brexit impact on the world scene.

The UK alone will be very, very alone in trade talks and other talks where size is almost all that matters.

Lars

trellheim · 05-08-2019 05:12PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Ireland the worst performing stock market on earth since BJ got in.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/markets/for-ireland-plc-pain-of-no-deal-brexit-is-starting-to-hit-home/ar-AAFjpMH?ocid=st

Incorrect - article specifically only refers to ISEQ vs EMEA, not the whole world. As for the rest the index is tracking the STOXX index but lower - precisely due to the exposure due to uncertainty of our closest neighbour changing its PM to a risky option.

bob mcbob · 05-08-2019 05:59PM

reslfj wrote: »

Oil is a dead commodity in the longer time frame needed to asses the viability of a state.

By 2050 Europe should be 'fossil free' and others will follow. Demand for oil will be lower and the expensive to produce oil from offshore sources will likely be of little value.

Lars

Yes but in the reverse of the current process, these oil / gas wells can be used for carbon capture and storage. This is injecting liquified CO2 into the same rock formations that used to hold the oil / gas.

Enzokk · 05-08-2019 06:01PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Ireland the worst performing stock market on earth since BJ got in.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/markets/for-ireland-plc-pain-of-no-deal-brexit-is-starting-to-hit-home/ar-AAFjpMH?ocid=st

What I got from your link is, Ireland will be influenced by Brexit and the market is preparing for it. I did see a few interesting paragraphs in there, like the following:

Smurfit Kappa Group Plc said British demand is among the weakest in the packaging company’s 35 markets and its UK spending is about 20% to 25% lower than it would otherwise have been because of the political uncertainty, suggesting no deal would be “disastrous” for the country and hit Ireland’s trade with its neighbour.

...

A no-deal Brexit “could have a very damaging effect, particularly on our UK bases and on some of our Irish bases, which are heavily dependent on people travelling between Ireland and the UK,” CEO Michael O’Leary told staff.

So there we have 2 quotes that state what we know, Brexit will be damaging to Ireland. What I also see is that it would be more damaging to the UK though and that is the important caveat that people seem to miss. We will bleed, but at least we have a bandage to stop the bleeding, the UK will not have that luxury and they are hoping we will bail them out.

reslfj · 05-08-2019 06:32PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes but in the reverse of the current process, these oil / gas wells can be used for carbon capture and storage. This is injecting liquified CO2 into the same rock formations that used to hold the oil / gas.

Scotland can't get anything in terms of credit ratings for such futuristic plans.

And I just pointed out that expensive North Sea oil will not improve the credit ratings either.

An independent Scotland must base its medium and long term businesses and finances on non-oil activities.

Oil will continue to be used, but the world market will be much smaller and oil from inexpensively producing wells will likely meet all demands.

Lars

Capt'n Midnight · 05-08-2019 06:45PM

Water John wrote: »

The UK has only 4 coal plants operating now. RWE plant closing March 2020, SSE plant March 2020, EDF Sept 2020.

Isn't Drax still operating two coal units as well as the four they converted to Biomass ?

99% of the Biomass and 76% of the coal is imported.
so falls in Sterling will hurt.

Enzokk · 05-08-2019 06:52PM

Okay, seems like we should prepare for the brace position. It is not going to end well on Halloween.

Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating Brexit deal, EU told

Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating the withdrawal agreement and a no-deal Brexit is his “central scenario”, EU diplomats have been briefed following a meeting between the prime minister’s chief envoy and officials in Brussels.

David Frost, who replaced Olly Robbins as the government’s chief Europe adviser, was said to have instead sought to discuss how negotiations could be reset after the UK crashes out on 31 October, during his recent talks with senior EU figures.

“It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan. A no deal now appears to be the UK government’s central scenario.”

So the plan is not to open negotiations on a new deal, but to start negotiations on the 1st November on a FTA. There would also be a change in what deal they are pursuing as the UK would now not be looking for a close alignment with Brussels. This in turn would affect what type of deal they would get. It is stated later in the article that a basic free trade agreement will not get rid of tariffs but merely reduce them.

So what is the plan here. I get that they are going hard and if the intention is to get the EU to blink then they are really playing their hand here. All communication at the moment shouts no-deal and there isn't even a hint of compromise from the UK. The problem I see with this is two-fold for the UK.

One, you crash out without a deal because that is what you say you want. Ivan Rogers is proven correct when he said this could happen not due to a lack of will to find a deal but due to the rhetoric and misunderstanding between the 2 sides (paraphrasing a lot here from my side). Two, you don't crash out and have to compromise on either accepting the deal on offer or an extension. You are ruined as leader and as a party in the UK.

The other option is the EU actually blinks, but what good does that do to the EU and what about our place in the EU if they cave or pressure us to cave?

Strazdas · 05-08-2019 07:09PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Okay, seems like we should prepare for the brace position. It is not going to end well on Halloween.

Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating Brexit deal, EU told

So the plan is not to open negotiations on a new deal, but to start negotiations on the 1st November on a FTA. There would also be a change in what deal they are pursuing as the UK would now not be looking for a close alignment with Brussels. This in turn would affect what type of deal they would get. It is stated later in the article that a basic free trade agreement will not get rid of tariffs but merely reduce them.

So what is the plan here. I get that they are going hard and if the intention is to get the EU to blink then they are really playing their hand here. All communication at the moment shouts no-deal and there isn't even a hint of compromise from the UK. The problem I see with this is two-fold for the UK.

One, you crash out without a deal because that is what you say you want. Ivan Rogers is proven correct when he said this could happen not due to a lack of will to find a deal but due to the rhetoric and misunderstanding between the 2 sides (paraphrasing a lot here from my side). Two, you don't crash out and have to compromise on either accepting the deal on offer or an extension. You are ruined as leader and as a party in the UK.

The other option is the EU actually blinks, but what good does that do to the EU and what about our place in the EU if they cave or pressure us to cave?

This theory has been around for a while, that the Brexiteers think they can pressgang the EU into negotiating side deals with them once No Deal is enacted.

It seems incredibly high risk though and fraught with dangers. The situation in a No Deal scenario would be so chaotic that nobody knows what way things would go.

BobbyBobberson · 05-08-2019 07:19PM

So are Brexiteers thinking, they leave with No Deal on Halloween and a hard border goes up.

Then go for an FTA with the EU? FTA does happen there is a border, FTA doesn't happen there is a border? Their argument is regardless what happens there is a border so may as well have an agreement. Have I cracked it?

Have i finally worked out their thinking?! :pac::pac:

BluePlanet · 05-08-2019 07:26PM

This is a good read.
A Unionist Perspective On The DUP And Brexit.
It's penned by an normal UUP Unionist i think, and they speculate that the DUP are using Brexit and the backstop as a way to tank the GFA.

Despite their efforts, though, a clear majority in Northern Ireland voted to Remain. But far from the party then adjusting its position to reflect the wishes of the NI electorate, it has continued to pursue Brexit with added zeal. It’s not as if this is some meaningless grandstanding exercise on the part of the DUP. They are crucial to the delivery of Brexit. Such is the political arithmetic at Westminster, there can be no Brexit without their support. Since the referendum the DUP has, in effect, been engaged in bringing about a fundamental change to the constitutional position of Northern Ireland contrary to the democratically expressed wishes of a majority of its people. So much for self-determination for the people of Northern Ireland. So much for the principle of consent.

The DUP must be delighted that all eyes remain so unwaveringly fixed on the backstop. For they have indeed identified what, for them, is a major benefit to leaving the EU, but one they dare not name. The truth is, the DUP see in Brexit a golden opportunity to finally destroy the Good Friday Agreement. Or, more specifically, to destroy the gateway it provides to a united Ireland

https://ansionnachfionn.com/2019/07/30/a-unionist-perspective-on-the-dup-and-brexit/

Stop moaning ffs · 05-08-2019 07:31PM

We all have wondered just what the bloody hell the DUP are at.

Jonathan Powell, the GFA negotiatior, said in the times today he’s fairly sure Johnson is going to work be rid of them. I wonder do they realise this?

Leroy42 · 05-08-2019 08:34PM

They are basing the side deals thinking on the basis that the EU already stated that a number of areas would carry on as is for a period of time after no deal. Of course these aren't really deals, they are EU decisions, but they will be sold as side deals.

But they still haven't explained how they are going to ever agree to a FTA. Who will decide the regulations, who will deal with any disputes? The very same issues they have now will be faced later.

My thinking is that they underestimated the union of the 27 and throughout, and still, they appear to be focused on targeting individual countries. So perhaps the plan is to try to put pressure on stalling countries by virtue of countries like Ireland needing a FTA ASAP.

I think the UK have accepted that they have 'lost' this fight and want to move to the next round to try and restart.

Seth Brundle · 05-08-2019 08:40PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

My thinking is that they underestimated the union of the 27 and throughout, and still, they appear to be focused on targeting individual countries. So perhaps the plan is to try to put pressure on stalling countries by virtue of countries like Ireland needing a FTA ASAP.

Traditionally when the UK "allowed" a colonial member to leave they would apply a divide and conquer approach which left some dependency on mother England.
This is what's happening with the EU. They are trying to divide the union under the belief that they are needed more by the EU than vice versa.

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think the UK have accepted that they have 'lost' this fight and want to move to the next round to try and restart.

To be honest, I don't think they even realise they've lost.

Irish Praetorian · 05-08-2019 08:41PM

Strazdas wrote: »

This theory has been around for a while, that the Brexiteers think they can pressgang the EU into negotiating side deals with them once No Deal is enacted.

It seems incredibly high risk though and fraught with dangers. The situation in a No Deal scenario would be so chaotic that nobody knows what way things would go.

Strikes me as being the ultimate salami slicer Brexit move or a good example of the sunken cost fallacy;

We can do Brexit with all the benefits of the EU and none of the cost.
Well we don't want all of the benefits of the EU we want our muh freedom.
Of course we don't want the economic obligations of it either but we can trade.
Of course they will jump at us for a trade deal, it will be sorted before we leave.
Well now they will have to come to us with a deal, we buy all that French wine and German cars (lovely vivid imagery).
If we want to be serious about getting a good deal we need to risk saying no deal.
We need to get a bit more serious about offering no deal, I mean its a better outcome than a bad deal.
Alright it's time to go right up to the wire and surely the EU will blink at the last moment.
OK we've gotten an extension this time we'll get our deal!
Alright we've got another extension, now were SURE to get a good deal!
Look if it comes to it we might want to opt for no-deal

To come:
Alright we have to do no deal, but don't worry, we can have all the benefits of an EU trade deal and none of the cost!
Sure this time the French vintners and German car makers are going to help us!

Infini · 05-08-2019 08:43PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

I see that the GBP is still sliding and is now testing 92p = €1.

That is quite a psychological number.

Was looking at it earlier it was 91.5 for a few days and now has slid another cent, as time wears on it will get worse, 97p I believe was the highest in '08 so once we cross 95 were heading for parity. Im just waiting for the moment that €1 is breached....

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

So are Brexiteers thinking, they leave with No Deal on Halloween and a hard border goes up.

Then go for an FTA with the EU? FTA does happen there is a border, FTA doesn't happen there is a border? Their argument is regardless what happens there is a border so may as well have an agreement. Have I cracked it?

Have i finally worked out their thinking?! :pac::pac:

The border in truth is going to be a side show for a while the REAL show is going to be Dover and such if there's no deal that;s where the real shítshow will be, No deal isnt a strategy it will be the beginning of the End of the UK, wether they can end this farce before that point were sill waiting to see on that but breaking the GFA will most certainly have political and diplomatic consequences.

lawred2 · 05-08-2019 08:45PM

I know the likes of Ryanair take a nice slice of commission for the convenience of booking in your own currency for a non EUR flight but even with that I just booked a flight with Ryanir where the EUR to GBP conversion was parity..

I've never seen that before

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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