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Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,338 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    The uk should have had Jonathan Powell leading their negotiating team if he would have agreed to do it, he seems to have all the traits of a good negotiator and has a certain charm as well


    He stuck the GFA for 10 years. Some stamina! He is very much a straight talker who knows his detail. Similar type to Sabine.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    I think we’re likely to see the WA pushed through parliament against the government’s wishes, with a general election triggered as a result. Without mass deselections of dissenting MPs, it will be just another can-kicking exercise, of course.
    This is unlikely I'm afraid. Parliament were the ones against the WA when the Tory government under May were trying to get it through. Johnson actually voted for it the last time is was put to parliament and rejected. It is not just the ERG; Labour are the biggest bloc. voting against the WA in favour of their own solution which is also unacceptable to the EU.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    eire4 wrote: »
    If you took a group photo of the 45 Republican senators they would look very very white and very very male. White supremacist's are part of their voter base so the only work they will be doing in regard to the rise of white supremacists killings will be to offer "thoughts and prayers".

    Just wondering how many MEPs Ireland has from minority ethnic backgrounds, could someone tell me? I'm sure that it must be a fair number because otherwise you'd be white supremacists.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,983 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    Just wondering how many MEPs Ireland has from minority ethnic backgrounds, could someone tell me? I'm sure that it must be a fair number because otherwise you'd be white supremacists.

    Over 50% of our MEPs are female so I think we are safe from being classified as white supremacists.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 900 ✭✭✭sameoldname


    Just wondering how many MEPs Ireland has from minority ethnic backgrounds, could someone tell me? I'm sure that it must be a fair number because otherwise you'd be white supremacists.

    The Taoiseach is half Indian and gay. Is that why you specifically asked about MEP's I wonder?


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    There’s a video going around everyone’s raving about it or ranting about it.
    an interview with Tony Blair. And he’s talking about the good Friday agreement and how we can’t stand by and let it be undone by brexit etc etc

    6 beer rant I’m sorry, but it pisses me off no end you never ever see Mo Mowlam mentioned or given the respect and credit due for her vast efforts in the GFA. She had the toughest job of any of them by a long way and navigated it all so naturally without any prejudice or judgement.
    And she’s been totally forgotten. Over there and here.

    I’d donate firstborn to give either side even one person of her caliber and political savvy and humanity. Either side.

    She doesn’t even get mentioned.
    When was the last time any of us heard her name even?
    They should be ashamed of themselves for that as well as everything else.
    Sorry. Rant over.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,523 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I wonder has anyone modelled how much Brexit will be worth to the Irish exchequer.
    It will be severely detrimental both to the national finances and to the government finances.
    It seems to be assumed that there will be goods flooding across from NI into the south. But if the economy in Britain tanks the very real likelihood is goods will be flooding north, as things get more expensive and scarce there surely?
    There will be smuggling both ways, in different goods. The preferrred direction of smuggling will alter from time to time in response to exchange rate movements and changes in UK and Irish tax policy. The smuggling market is extremely responsive.

    I doubt if there will, initially, be a deluge of goods moving northwards. Sterling will tank, which will reduce the capacity of people in sterling-land to buy goods from euro-land. This will apply to smuggled and legit goods alike. Plus, significant shrinking of employment in NI, with consquent downward pressure on wages, will tend to reduce purchasing capacity anyway.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    It will be severely detrimental both to the national finances and to the government finances.


    There will be smuggling both ways, in different goods. The preferrred direction of smuggling will alter from time to time in response to exchange rate movements and changes in UK and Irish tax policy. The smuggling market is extremely responsive.

    I doubt if there will, initially, be a deluge of goods moving northwards. Sterling will tank, which will reduce the capacity of people in sterling-land to buy goods from euro-land. This will apply to smuggled and legit goods alike. Plus, significant shrinking of employment in NI, with consquent downward pressure on wages, will tend to reduce purchasing capacity anyway.



    In relation to the smuggling aspect, the top three things that are currently ‘smuggled’ (meaning people crossing the border right now innocently and otherwise) are Fuel(diesel petrol) tobacco/ cigarettes


    And...

    Washing up powder.

    Seriously. There’s a substantial difference in cost on the last one between here and up there. So imagine the post brexit scenario.
    The difference in price in the two regions will affect thousands of products. All of them.

    Posting this again cos it’s fascinating. Brilliant sadly short podcast on what happens in NI post brexit from two experts.

    ‘University College London professor Ronan McCrea reflects on going viral in a media interview, and tells us why giving the straight facts is no longer working in public debate. Northern Ireland Retail Consortium director Aodhán Connolly explains what the impact will be on ordinary families the day after Brexit. We also hear from Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok on why checks on goods cannot be avoided.’

    https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-irish-passport/id1246162545?i=1000444975590


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭fash


    I didn't hear all of it but it was probably Ray Bassett who has been a backer of "Irexit".


    The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.
    The German car industry literally released a press statement recently telling the EU not to back down on the withdrawal agreement. It would be quite astonishing if they were saying different things in private to the EU and how would Power be aware of it if it were happening?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,711 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    reslfj wrote: »
    Freedom of movement for people has nothing to do with movement in mi/hour or km/hour.
    It in not at all about people flying, walking, sailing, driving, going by train or whatever.


    FoM for people is about the right to move your main/permanent address to another EU/EEA country with an obligation to have a paid job no later than 90 days after you started staying at your new address.

    FoM is also about rights to seek and take a paid job in any EU/EEA country independently of which member state you live in.

    If you say: "I move from London to Bristol next week" you are not going to tell about driving on the A4, but about you new job and new house in Bristol.

    The house is likely not actually new, only new to you.

    Free in the EU FoM has nothing to do with not costing money. It will cost you to move from e.g. Dublin to Paris. You will just be charged the the same as a French or any other EU citizen will be charged.

    Lars :)

    PS! FoM for goods will normally include some actual 'km/hour movement', while FoM for services very often, nowadays, are just delivered via computer or telecommunication fibres. Likewise is FoM for capital.

    PSS! FoM for people has other rules too - for rich people, pensioners and for students.
    I'm not sure if you think you're disagreeing with me (that's how it comes across to me) but this was exactly my point.

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    jm08 wrote:
    I would presume that the Santander route is for fresh fruit and veg coming from Spain. Sailing time is 26.5 hours.


    Among other things. I'd imagine Musgraves will be a big customer.

    We get "fresh" fruit and vegetables from New Zealand, South America and Africa so we should be able to cope with Northern Spain.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,160 ✭✭✭declanflynn


    First Up wrote: »
    jm08 wrote:
    I would presume that the Santander route is for fresh fruit and veg coming from Spain. Sailing time is 26.5 hours.


    Among other things. I'd imagine Musgraves will be a big customer.

    We get "fresh" fruit and vegetables from New Zealand, South America and Africa so we should be able to cope with Northern Spain.
    Your 100% correct, I had forgot about perishable goods coming here from much further away than Europe


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,980 ✭✭✭Lucy8080


    It seems that Scotland is trending because a new poll is suggesting that the Scots would vote for independence rather than leave the E.U.

    Leaving out the undecided ,the poll shows (ironically) 52% v 48 % in favour of independence.

    According to the Ashcroft poll - 46% said they would vote for Independence

    - 43% would vote against.

    Excluding those who did not know or who would not vote-this amounted to a 52% v 48% majority for Independence.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,277 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Who does this guy think he is ? Can someone tell him it is over.

    UK must not be allowed "to go off and do their own trade deals with other countries"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/uk-must-not-be-allowed-pursue-cheap-food-policy-after-brexit-1.3802972

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,523 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Who does this guy think he is ? Can someone tell him it is over.

    UK must not be allowed "to go off and do their own trade deals with other countries"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/uk-must-not-be-allowed-pursue-cheap-food-policy-after-brexit-1.3802972
    What he actually says, if you read the report, is that "very important that the UK in any deal wouldn’t be able to go off and do their own trade deals with other countries".

    In other words, he's not saying that the EU should simply dictate to the UK that it may not make trade deals with third countries. He's saying that, if the UK makes a deal with the EU, one of the terms of the deal should be that the UK mustn't make trade deals with other countries that commit it to lowering its food standards, so that EU producers selling into the UK face competition from producers in other countries who aren't required to meet the standards have to meet.

    Analagous demands will be made by the US in relation to any US/UK trade deal - except that, at least as regards food, the US will seek to get the UK to commit to not imposing higher standards than US producers are subject to.

    Provisions like this are a pretty common feature of trade deals between large trade powers like the US and the EU and smaller powers like the UK. Having embarked on Brexit for the specific purpose of making its own trade deals, the UK is opening itself to demands for such provisions and presumably intends to comply with them in at least some instances, as otherwise it won't be able to make many significant trade deals, which even Brexiters would have to concede would seem to make Brexit pretty pointless.

    Obviously, the UK can't accede to all such demands, since - as in the example just given - it will often be faced with inconsistent demands, and can only acceed to one of them. In most cases, the UK would tend to accede to the EU demand rather than the US, since an EU trade deal would be of far greater benefit to the UK than a US deal could ever be. A problem arises, though, if there's a no-deal Brexit followed by a frosty period during which no EU trade deal can be negotiated, because the UK is still refusing to address EU concerns about the financial settement, citizens rights or the Irish border. In that circumstance there'll be strong political pressure within the UK to proceed with a US deal, but a fear of agreeing to a US deal on terms that might permanently stymie the possiblity of a beneficial EU deal at some later point, when the frost has thawed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,857 ✭✭✭abff


    Lucy8080 wrote: »
    It seems that Scotland is trending because a new poll is suggesting that the Scots would vote for independence rather than leave the E.U.

    Leaving out the undecided ,the poll shows (ironically) 52% v 48 % in favour of independence.

    According to the Ashcroft poll - 46% said they would vote for Independence

    - 43% would vote against.

    Excluding those who did not know or who would not vote-this amounted to a 52% v 48% majority for Independence.

    Maybe that's where we're heading in any event.

    If we look at the history of Europe over the past forty years or so, a number of new independent nations have emerged from previously being part of a single entity. Why should the U.K. be any different?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,912 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Where would Scotland get revenue to function as an independent state?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,523 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Where would Scotland get revenue to function as an independent state?
    Same place any state gets revenue to function as an independent state - from taxpayers and, to the extent that it engages in deficit financing, from lenders.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    abff wrote: »
    Maybe that's where we're heading in any event.

    If we look at the history of Europe over the past forty years or so, a number of new independent nations have emerged from previously being part of a single entity. Why should the U.K. be any different?

    Not that it's a reason not to split, but the UK has been around for significantly longer than the other newly independent countries that have emerged in Europe recently. And their previous lack of Independence can be traced back to basically the same event 70 odd years ago so was still in living memory.

    It can't be claimed that anyone alive today remembers Scotland and England being independent countries, or even has a grandparent who did. It's not comparable situations for the reasons of looking for Independence.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,240 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    abff wrote: »
    Maybe that's where we're heading in any event.

    If we look at the history of Europe over the past forty years or so, a number of new independent nations have emerged from previously being part of a single entity. Why should the U.K. be any different?


    Because many lived under tyrannical regimes and the people overwhelming wanted Independence

    That is not the case here.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,682 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    It will be severely detrimental both to the national finances and to the government finances.


    There will be smuggling both ways, in different goods. The preferrred direction of smuggling will alter from time to time in response to exchange rate movements and changes in UK and Irish tax policy. The smuggling market is extremely responsive.

    I doubt if there will, initially, be a deluge of goods moving northwards. Sterling will tank, which will reduce the capacity of people in sterling-land to buy goods from euro-land. This will apply to smuggled and legit goods alike. Plus, significant shrinking of employment in NI, with consquent downward pressure on wages, will tend to reduce purchasing capacity anyway.

    When there is a border, people move across it for cheaper goods/fuel. When our economy was depressed and employment was low was the time when most went north, because it was a survival tool and our exchequer lost out. When droves of shoppers go north for cheaper goods the UK exchequer benefits.

    So if the northern economy tanks and employment falls surely the same will happen if we are cheaper.
    The unapproved roads around here will be busy again I suspect.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,523 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    robinph wrote: »
    Not that it's a reason not to split, but the UK has been around for significantly longer than the other newly independent countries that have emerged in Europe recently. And their previous lack of Independence can be traced back to basically the same event 70 odd years ago so was still in living memory.

    It can't be claimed that anyone alive today remembers Scotland and England being independent countries, or even has a grandparent who did. It's not comparable situations for the reasons of looking for Independence.
    Your analogy doesn't work. You shouldn't be asking "how long has the UK been around, compared to the newly emerged countries?", but "how long has the UK been around, compared to other countries from which new countries seceded?"

    The UK has been around since 1801. Poland emerged out of Russia, which has been around since 1547. Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and Croatia all emerged out of Habsburg Austria, around since 1287. Norway emerged out of the Kingdom of Denmark, around since about 980.

    So, the fact that a country has been around for a long time is not really an indication that it is not going to lose territory to newly-created.

    Besides, the history of the United Kingdom for the past hundred years has been of the steady loss of sovereign territory, starting with ourselves but carrying on through a succession of colonies escaping from UK sovereignty through struggle, or negotiation, or some combination of the two. There's no reason at all to think that the UK's sovereign reach cannot contract still more.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,813 ✭✭✭joe40


    The British press and even Eoghan Harris in the independent are very critical of the Irish government stance on the backstop, with Varadker coming in for particular scorn.
    But is the backstop purely an Irish concern.

    I mean if the Irish government were to say ok abolish the backstop, would the rest of the EU say ok that will be fine amend the WA and trust the British promise of no need for a border.

    Surely border integrity and single market standars are vital for all EU countries.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,856 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    There is a thing called Sunk Cost Fallacy, I think the Brexiteers are there now.

    I couldn't disagree more, I'm afraid. Brexit is, and always was a disaster capitalist project masquerading as a working class revolution. The Brexiters know that they are on slippery ground and that they were unbelievably fortunate to win a suitable vague mandate for their shock doctrine due to an unlikely alignment of factors including the Euro crisis, economic stagnation, austerity and a monumentally inept PM who opted to give an incensed nation the opportunity to give the establishment a kicking.

    Since the referendum, we have seen the Brexiters turn on every democratic institution in the land from the judiciary to the media to Parliament itself. For just one example, here is Leave.EU referring remainers as "vermin":

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1157695184970354688?s=19

    Meanwhile, we get another glimpse of the Brexit machine in action as Tory party donor Crispin Odey bets £300 million against 16 British firms including Royal Mail:

    https://inews.co.uk/news/tory-donor-bets-300-million-on-losses-for-uk-firms-after-no-deal-brexit/

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,523 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    When there is a border, people move across it for cheaper goods/fuel. When our economy was depressed and employment was low was the time when most went north, because it was a survival tool and our exchequer lost out. When droves of shoppers go north for cheaper goods the UK exchequer benefits.

    So if the northern economy tanks and employment falls surely the same will happen if we are cheaper.
    Why would we be cheaper if the northern economy tanks? Prices tend to languish in times of recession, so if anything this should make the north cheaper.

    The truth is that both economies will be badly hit by a no-deal Brexit, but the NI economy worse, so prices in the north will probably fall relative to the south. And this is likely to be exacerbated by the decline in sterling. I think that after a no-deal Brexit, at least in the short term, the flow of goods is more likely to be from north to south.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 882 ✭✭✭reslfj


    fash wrote: »
    The economist Jim Power...was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop.

    The German car industry literally released a press statement recently telling the EU not to back down on the withdrawal agreement....

    I posted in this forum on July 23
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110771320&postcount=5267

    and a direct link is here:
    https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/bdi-on-the-decision-of-the-british-conservatives-to-appoint-boris-johnson-as-party-leader-threats-from-london-are-harmful-and-will-come-back-like-a-boomerang--812518860.html

    Lars :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,682 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Why would we be cheaper if the northern economy tanks? Prices tend to languish in times of recession, so if anything this should make the north cheaper.

    Don't get you here. When we were in recession in the 80's and early 90's the flood of revenue across the border was at it's height.
    The truth is that both economies will be badly hit by a no-deal Brexit, but the NI economy worse, so prices in the north will probably fall relative to the south. And this is likely to be exacerbated by the decline in sterling. I think that after a no-deal Brexit, at least in the short term, the flow of goods is more likely to be from north to south.
    People watch sterling here, they have always been sensitive to fluctuations, you will see many shops displaying the daily rate, and less so in the north, but you do see it. We always have the 'sterling purse', and many others do too.
    The other thing retailers will tell you is that if there are significant savings to be made on a select number of items in a basket of goods people are more likely to shop for their entire basket of goods.
    I am not so sure you are fully right here Peregrinus.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,036 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Where would Scotland get revenue to function as an independent state?
    Fossil fuels, energy and food exports. Salmon and Whisky are worth billions. Services exported to the rest of the UK accounted for £9.1Bn

    ( also tariffs collected from imports from the UK )

    60% of Scotland's exports go the the rest of the UK , 18% to EU, 22% to the rest of the world.


    Scotland could remain in the European Economic Area by joining the EFTA, doing a Norway deal, or similar. It could be a "temporary" thing until Scotland diversifies, like we did, in which case joining the EU makes more sense, or the UK rejoins the EU.

    The CTA can be grandfathered in, we did that.

    The pound could be kept by pegging to it to Sterling, we did that from 1922 until 1979.

    Scottish - UK border would be easier to police than ours, less crossings, lower population density, fewer paramilitaries.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,036 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    reslfj wrote: »

    From September 2016. The only changes apart from the names of the people in those roles is that UK red lines and political infighting have removed many of their options.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/german-business-leader-warning-brexit-trade-uk
    The head of Germany’s largest business group has said German firms will not push for a free trade deal between the EU and Britain after Brexit, despite the number of cars and quantities of other goods they sell in the UK.
    ...

    He said the level of “political ill-will” against Britain on the continent was “much, much bigger than economic rationality” – in part because the bloc’s single market and eastward expansion had been “core UK strategies” and it was now “exactly those countries whose migrants are causing headaches in Great Britain”.

    Ultimately, Kerber said, there was “no difference, for the BDI, between the political view and the economic view”. Pointing to huge investments made by German carmakers in central Europe, he said: “For us, the single market, eastern Europe and freedom of movement – they are all one deal, that is inseparable.”


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,375 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Where would Scotland get revenue to function as an independent state?

    Fossil fuels, energy and food exports. Salmon and Whisky are worth billions. Services exported to the rest of the UK accounted for £9.1Bn

    ( also tariffs collected from imports from the UK )

    60% of Scotland's exports go the the rest of the UK , 18% to EU, 22% to the rest of the world.


    Scotland could remain in the European Economic Area by joining the EFTA, doing a Norway deal, or similar. It could be a "temporary" thing until Scotland diversifies, like we did, in which case joining the EU makes more sense, or the UK rejoins the EU.

    The CTA can be grandfathered in, we did that.

    The pound could be kept by pegging to it to Sterling, we did that from 1922 until 1979.

    Scottish - UK border would be easier to police than ours, less crossings, lower population density, fewer paramilitaries.

    Well, Scotland has a population much the same as Ireland, and an economy much the same. We survive, and in fact have done very well since we joined the EEC in 1973, and particularly since the Single Market came into being.

    We hit a speed bump in 2008, but we have recovered quite well, but unfortunately have collected a significant sovereign debt.

    There is no reason why Independent Scotland should not do well in the EU. There are smaller countries in the EU and they appear to manage quite well.

    Denmark is not in the Euro, but shadows the Euro very closely, and has a population of a similar size.

    Of course, if Scotland got saddled with a large share of the UK sovereign debt, they could struggle.


This discussion has been closed.
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