Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Lackadaisical · 03-08-2019 06:03PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Frans Timmermans made this point on BBC's Panorama. The Brexiteers thought they could negotiate with the EU on the basis of trade and balancing the books, as if money and economics would be the sole priority for the EU in such a negotiation. No understanding at all that there might be political, cultural and societal elements to the negotiations.

That's also the absolute crux of the British problem with their EU relationship. They have never really seem to have seen it as anything other than "the common market", certainly not the right leaning Tory element of British politics and media anyway.

Ireland's relationship with the EU has largely been one of being treated with respect, dignaty and an equal partner for the first time in centuries. For Ireland the EU has been something that's been extremely empowering and has been about both exerting our independence and being accepted on the world stage with a great degree of solidarity from other members of the EU.

Also, we stand in the EU as a modern country and without all baggage of British inspired tabloid paddywhackery and jingoism. That stuff tends not to cross the channel. How we're viewed from the continent is very different to how we're seen from Britain or even from the US.

Basically what we like about the EU are the very things that are alien to those passionately supporting Brexit.

Joe_ Public · 03-08-2019 06:12PM

firemansam4 wrote: »

I've no doubt that there is a hard core of remain voters out there, but the Brexit crowd just seem more noisy and motivated.
I was over in England with relatives a few weeks and listening to conversations between their friends I noticed that the outrage of people who voted for Brexit shone through, while anyone who may have voted remain didn't say much at all on the matter.

I just have a feeling that if there was a second referendum a much higher percentage of people who want Brexit will turn out and vote compared to remainers. I really hope I am wrong on that, but it just seems that way to me.

You could be right. The polls dont offer much clarity on it, the latest i've seen is 52-48 in favour of Remain, a swing which might be explained by the trend of older, more leave orientated voters dying and younger, likely remainers coming into voting age. It would be another close call, depending on what exactly was on the ballot sheet. But you're right about the brexiteers making noise, its what they are good at and they have the benefit too, i think, of a majority of the mainstream media. Not to underestimate the value of social media to them which, in my view, unfairly rewards the crude repetition of bluster and outright lying.

As the clock winds down, though, and the spectre of a no deal exit - which commands no majority - grows larger, i believe the remain side will be mobilised like never before. Thats what happened in march and come september, october i think we'll see it rise from its slumber. As to what it can achieve, well remains to be seen i suppose.

road_high · 03-08-2019 06:28PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

You could be right. The polls dont offer much clarity on it, the latest i've seen is 52-48 in favour of Remain, a swing which might be explained by the trend of older, more leave orientated voters dying and younger, likely remainers coming into voting age. It would be another close call, depending on what exactly was on the ballot sheet. But you're right about the brexiteers making noise, its what they are good at and they have the benefit too, i think, of a majority of the mainstream media. Not to underestimate the value of social media to them which, in my view, unfairly rewards the crude repetition of bluster and outright lying.

As the clock winds down, though, and the spectre of a no deal exit - which commands no majority - grows larger, i believe the remain side will be mobilised like never before. Thats what happened in march and come september, october i think we'll see it rise from its slumber. As to what it can achieve, well remains to be seen i suppose.

Seems to be this thing alright where they get cold feet close and closer to each exit date. It’s like as if brexit is utopia in theory but the reality a lot less appealing

briany · 03-08-2019 06:49PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

You could be right. The polls dont offer much clarity on it, the latest i've seen is 52-48 in favour of Remain, a swing which might be explained by the trend of older, more leave orientated voters dying and younger, likely remainers coming into voting age. It would be another close call, depending on what exactly was on the ballot sheet. But you're right about the brexiteers making noise, its what they are good at and they have the benefit too, i think, of a majority of the mainstream media. Not to underestimate the value of social media to them which, in my view, unfairly rewards the crude repetition of bluster and outright lying.

As the clock winds down, though, and the spectre of a no deal exit - which commands no majority - grows larger, i believe the remain side will be mobilised like never before. Thats what happened in march and come september, october i think we'll see it rise from its slumber. As to what it can achieve, well remains to be seen i suppose.

It's the great fallacy of Brexit to say that Remain have no voice in how Brexit should be shaped. If anyone thinks that Brexiteers wouldn't be campaigning for another referendum in the scenario of 52-48 for Remain, well that's a shaky supposition, given what Farage had said about that in May 2016, but if anyone thinks that Leave wouldn't have, at the very least, been looking at 52-48 for Remain as a massive mandate to keep an arms-length relationship to the EU, then they're either lying or a fool.

52-48 for Leave is saying 'We want to leave, but we want to keep close ties'. You can paint it any other way you want, but undertaking any other course completely obliterates your electoral chances with around half the UK electorate. OK, in fairness, leaving but maintaining close ties is going to hurt, too, but this is the no-win game the UK is playing. I would say, though, that in the latter case, if you could sell the benefits of a leave-but-stay-close deal to either side of the electorate, you could salve the worst of the outrage.

Strazdas · 03-08-2019 06:50PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

That's also the absolute crux of the British problem with their EU relationship. They have never really seem to have seen it as anything other than "the common market", certainly not the right leaning Tory element of British politics and media anyway.

Ireland's relationship with the EU has largely been one of being treated with respect, dignaty and an equal partner for the first time in centuries. For Ireland the EU has been something that's been extremely empowering and has been about both exerting our independence and being accepted on the world stage with a great degree of solidarity from other members of the EU.

Also, we stand in the EU as a modern country and without all baggage of British inspired tabloid paddywhackery and jingoism. That stuff tends not to cross the channel. How we're viewed from the continent is very different to how we're seen from Britain or even from the US.

Basically what we like about the EU are the very things that are alien to those passionately supporting Brexit.

The funny thing is that they see all the good stuff with the EU like workers rights, EU citizenship, environmental laws, freedom of movement, open borders, Erasmus etc as a major nuisance and a hindrance and a big negative. They just want it to be about trade and money.

They're a very strange crowd.....stuck in a bygone era (the 1950s or something).

briany · 03-08-2019 06:54PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The funny thing is that they see all the good stuff with the EU like workers rights, EU citizenship, environmental laws, freedom of movement, open borders, Erasmus etc as a major nuisance and a hindrance and a big negative. They just want it to be about trade and money.

They're a very strange crowd.....stuck in a bygone era (the 1950s or something).

It's the mindset of the true-blue Brexiteer that they would accept a crappy law from London over a good one from Brussels any day.

20silkcut · 03-08-2019 07:15PM

road_high wrote: »

Seems to be this thing alright where they get cold feet close and closer to each exit date. It’s like as if brexit is utopia in theory but the reality a lot less appealing

In fairness is there anything stopping them from leaving immediately bar themselves??? They could leave tomorrow if they really really wanted to?
There are not exactly mass protests on the street demanding brexit.
Boris et al know that the masses in favour of Brexit now could disappear like a fart in the wind if things go south post hard Brexit. He needs a deal. He needs a ladder to climb down hence the pressure on us.
You can’t depend on the public. Especially a fickle rabble roused public like in Britain at the moment.

They will be tomorrow’s angry mob protesting any hardship caused by brexit.

In 2008 we were the most anti European country in the EU in terms of official vote. 12 months later we were back in love again as if nothing happened.
There is nothing as fickle as the electorate and that is even more the case when it comes to the EU.
It’s either a protest vote or vote for a candidate who has a nice smile like Brian Crowley.
Same in Britain most of them didn’t even realize they could vote for MEPs until this year.

First Up · 03-08-2019 07:36PM

road_high wrote:

It was a choice they made alright because theyâ€™re so insular and wrapped up in the Union flag they couldâ€™ve see the benefits until much later. It does gaul them itâ€™s been a success in spite of them and the Germans are the lead country despite both world wars where GB see themselves as nothing but the goodies in it all.

I think it was even more parochial than that. The first post war step was the European Coal and Steel Union - a German/French initiative to take the means of military production out of the hands of individual countries.

The UK refused to join because the then Minister in charge represented the coal mining constituency of Durham and feared the unions would object.

That left them out of the process that led to creating the EEC and they watched from the outside as the whole European movement gained strength. They have never quite gotten over that it succeeded without them.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-08-2019 08:08PM

According to pro Brexit commentators in the UK on TV and radio in the last couple of days the Irish are turning against our govt because we are all increasingly terrified of no deal.

Even the poll they point to as evidence had 27% of respondents having no opinion.

Is there any more solid evidence of public opinion shifting?

I don't detect a big shift, maybe a minor one.

Irish Praetorian · 03-08-2019 08:08PM

20silkcut wrote: »

In fairness is there anything stopping them from leaving immediately bar themselves??? They could leave tomorrow if they really really wanted to?
There are not exactly mass protests on the street demanding brexit.
Boris et al know that the masses in favour of Brexit now could disappear like a fart in the wind if things go south post hard Brexit. He needs a deal. He needs a ladder to climb down hence the pressure on us.
You can’t depend on the public. Especially a fickle rabble roused public like in Britain at the moment.

They will be tomorrow’s angry mob protesting any hardship caused by brexit.

In 2008 we were the most anti European country in the EU in terms of official vote. 12 months later we were back in love again as if nothing happened.
There is nothing as fickle as the electorate and that is even more the case when it comes to the EU.
It’s either a protest vote or vote for a candidate who has a nice smile like Brian Crowley.
Same in Britain most of them didn’t even realize they could vote for MEPs until this year.

My own impression of our various 'didn't work the first time lets try again' votes on various European treaties is that they struck out the first time because there was a lot of complacency around and people were expecting them to pass and thus didn't vote, whereas second time around not only was turnout higher but the voters tended to be either more informed/motivated on the issue, or they were swayed by a a pro-EU campaign which got itself up to the level of lies and dishonesty that the anti-EU campaigns tend to start at. Say what you will about 'Vote Yes for Jobs' it's marginally less embarrasing than 'the EU loves control' or 'Goodbye UN hello NATO'.

Seth Brundle · 03-08-2019 08:10PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is there any more solid evidence of public opinion shifting?

I don't detect a big shift, maybe a minor one.

I haven't seen any polls on how the Irish view the EU but anybody I've talked to (from various backgrounds) is of the view that the UK are going to damage their own economy and whilst there will be some collateral damage here, we're doing all we can and the EU has our back.

Jim2007 · 03-08-2019 08:23PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I haven't seen any polls on how the Irish view the EU.

The Eurobarometer has been running since 1974. Knock yourself out.

BluePlanet · 03-08-2019 08:25PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I can’t get over this tweet.
It should be shown to every DUP member and hardcore loyalist. This is what they think of you. They don’t care about you or the peace in the north at all.
When bombs start going off in Belfast and London, brexit fanatics like this guy should be held directly accountable.

It is truly a cult fanaticism at this stage

I love the creative thinking there.
But SF would never go along with it.
The quickest route to a UI is a hard brexit and hard border and they know it.

Strazdas · 03-08-2019 08:26PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

According to pro Brexit commentators in the UK on TV and radio in the last couple of days the Irish are turning against our govt because we are all increasingly terrified of no deal.

Even the poll they point to as evidence had 27% of respondents having no opinion.

Is there any more solid evidence of public opinion shifting?

I don't detect a big shift, maybe a minor one.

That poll in the Indo had dissatisfaction with Varadkar in general at the exact same level with his handling of Brexit (there were two questions). I would read nothing into it.....any talk that Irish people want us to ditch the backstop is obviously utter nonsense.

road_high · 03-08-2019 08:38PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

According to pro Brexit commentators in the UK on TV and radio in the last couple of days the Irish are turning against our govt because we are all increasingly terrified of no deal.

Even the poll they point to as evidence had 27% of respondents having no opinion.

Is there any more solid evidence of public opinion shifting?

I don't detect a big shift, maybe a minor one.

Yes a minor one in the direction of further support of the backstop and the government position I’d say! The English have never understood the Irish - the more they try undermine, belittle and threaten us the more galvanized we become. We’ve had it for hundreds of years, Brexit is chicken feed compared to some of their past exploits here. This time is very different as we are out in the big bad world on our own two feet these days, with trade and political alliances all over the world. A hard Brexit would be inconvenient and damaging but certainly not something we fear or couldn’t overcome. That’s also why the threats are falling on deaf ears

J Mysterio · 03-08-2019 08:55PM

The Financial Times are reporting that artists at the Edinburgh Intrrnational Festival are refusing to be paid in Sterling.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1157669385743605761

This should be a fairly strong signal that you're not doing it right yet tonight, tomorrow and the next day, we will have people on BBC and elsewhere saying that this is fear or propaganda or some other nonsense.

Anything goes in the UK at the moment, it seems. Post experts, post truth, post diplomacy, post shame, post common sense.

road_high · 03-08-2019 09:01PM

Makes perfect sense. Anything in GBP is equivalent to an enormous cut in remuneration

Irish Praetorian · 03-08-2019 09:07PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

The Financial Times are reporting that artists at the Edinburgh Intrrnational Festival are refusing to be paid in Sterling.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1157669385743605761

This should be a fairly strong signal that you're not doing it right yet tonight, tomorrow and the next day, we will have people on BBC and elsewhere saying that this is fear or propaganda or some other nonsense.

Anything goes in the UK at the moment, it seems. Post experts, post truth, post diplomacy, post shame, post common sense.

Is it really that serious? I mean fair enough for a performer on an income they may not want to see that fluctuate 5-10%, but have we any such indications from big business?

Joe_ Public · 03-08-2019 09:08PM

Just for those wondering at the relative inaction of the remain side, a timely reminder that they haven't completely downed tools and abandoned all hope:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/03/peoples-vote-campaign-target-100-key-marginals-second-referendum-tactical-voting

Some juicy names on that list: Ian Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers, Zac Goldsmith.

Of course, it can work the other way too with some remain MPs under threat, but all in all, i think a GE should hold no fears whatsoever for remainers, regardless of the circumstances. Conservatives going to be wiped out in Scotland for a start, i would think, 13 seats down to likely half that or even less. Dont know how it works with Labour and the Lib Dems, possibly tearing strips off each other, but for the prospect of IDS and a few of his fellow travellers getting their comeuppance, i believe it is something to look forward to with some optimism if not relish.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-08-2019 09:17PM

Going to get more difficult to attract people to work in the UK with sterling getting pummelled.

Kaybaykwah · 03-08-2019 09:28PM

road_high wrote: »

Yes a minor one in the direction of further support of the backstop and the government position I’d say! The English have never understood the Irish - the more they try undermine, belittle and threaten us the more galvanized we become. We’ve had it for hundreds of years, Brexit is chicken feed compared to some of their past exploits here. This time is very different as we are out in the big bad world on our own two feet these days, with trade and political alliances all over the world. A hard Brexit would be inconvenient and damaging but certainly not something we fear or couldn’t overcome. That’s also why the threats are falling on deaf ears

Well put.

I have to say, I was in Ireland last week, I spent a little under two weeks visiting the country. I had lived in Dublin for a year in '87-'88, and did a short 3 week trip in 1981 before that. I was blown away by the change, and very proud of what the Irish people had managed to effect in thirty years. I hate to think that my departure had anything to do with the Celtic Tiger happening, but hey...

I also think that Ireland can overcome and maybe thrive post Brexit if it keeps t the course it has started on, that is, a more worldly, less insular gem of a country. When I lived in Dublin, there were no highways, and although the wealth of a sizable part of the populace was evident, the opportunities were still sorely lacking, and the culture of poverty engrained. I noticed a complete shift had occurred, and that was refreshing and encouraging. The fact that young Irish people could remain and expect to thrive, and moreover, that immigrants could set up new comfortable roots in a democratic, booming republic was remarkable to me.

In spite of the bumps ahead, Ireland has a lot of advantages over the UK. It is more nimble, still connected to the EU, has the respect of a Nations, and the use of the English language has an edge that opens more opportunities.

Ireland is also a very temperate country, not prone to the kinds of disasters that many other countries have to deal with punctually, and that is not a negligible factor, I am hoping it remains somewhat protected from Man-made become slash Natural upheavals. I also hope that political leaders choose wisely when faced with sourcing Energy, and protecting the environment.

The more iffy question remains; in the wake of Brexit, will the GFA be undermined by the heritage of discontent, segregation and poverty that the British created, perpetuated and seem ever unable to come to terms with?

CarPark2 · 03-08-2019 09:31PM

Quick question:
All of the focus is on UKs difficulty trading with EU in event of no deal brexit, because there will be no trade deal in place, so we will have to trade on WTO rules. But my understanding is that UK doesn’t have trade deals with any other country either. At the moment, they trade on the basis of EU trade deals.
So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

Nody · 03-08-2019 09:38PM

CarPark2 wrote: »

Quick question:
All of the focus is on UKs difficulty trading with EU in event of no deal brexit, because there will be no trade deal in place, so we will have to trade on WTO rules. But my understanding is that UK doesn’t have trade deals with any other country either. At the moment, they trade on the basis of EU trade deals.
So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

Yes; some countries have said they will consider to roll over the existing trade deals (see the trip May did to South Africa and paying several billions for them to consider it) but most countries will not roll things over simply because they can screw over UK instead of signing the deal done for a region the size of EU. Why give UK same deal as EU when they can get a significantly better deal by holding out on UK (who'll be desperate and are a smaller market which don't warrant as good of a deal if you look at it neutrally)?

Strazdas · 03-08-2019 09:40PM

CarPark2 wrote: »

Quick question:
All of the focus is on UKs difficulty trading with EU in event of no deal brexit, because there will be no trade deal in place, so we will have to trade on WTO rules. But my understanding is that UK doesn’t have trade deals with any other country either. At the moment, they trade on the basis of EU trade deals.
So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

That appears to be the case, yes. Most of their trade deals are via the EU so No Deal would leave them trading via WTO rules and having to apply tariffs everywhere.

tuxy · 03-08-2019 09:41PM

CarPark2 wrote: »

Quick question:
All of the focus is on UKs difficulty trading with EU in event of no deal brexit, because there will be no trade deal in place, so we will have to trade on WTO rules. But my understanding is that UK doesn’t have trade deals with any other country either. At the moment, they trade on the basis of EU trade deals.
So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

With goods they sell to other countries tariffs will be at WTO rates.
On items they import they can set any rate they want once the rate is the same for every country.

I also believe a limited number of countries(Faore Islands, Switzerland) have agreed to replicate the deal the UK has while part of the EU. Only small countries, no large powerful country would agree to terms that are so favourable to the UK

Kermit.de.frog · 03-08-2019 09:42PM

CarPark2 wrote: »

So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

Yes. As of Halloween that would be the case with no trade deals in place and having exited all the existing EU trade agreements.

It will all be fine though. Boris and Nigel said so.

Sam Russell · 03-08-2019 09:44PM

CarPark2 wrote: »

Quick question:
All of the focus is on UKs difficulty trading with EU in event of no deal brexit, because there will be no trade deal in place, so we will have to trade on WTO rules. But my understanding is that UK doesn’t have trade deals with any other country either. At the moment, they trade on the basis of EU trade deals.
So am I correct to think that if they leave in October without a deal, all of their trade (with all countries) will be on WTO rules?

No, they have secured a valuable trade deal with the Faeroe Islands that allows the Faeroes to land fish into the UK without tariffs. They have secured a deal with Switzerland that allows the Swiss to repatriate their gold. A deal with Southern Africa which allows the UK to continue foreign aid.

Canada have not allowed their EU deal to be rolled over. Australia likewise.

Anyway, check it out here.

road_high · 03-08-2019 09:45PM

Nody wrote: »

Yes; some countries have said they will consider to roll over the existing trade deals (see the trip May did to South Africa and paying several billions for them to consider it) but most countries will not roll things over simply because they can screw over UK instead of signing the deal done for a region the size of EU. Why give UK same deal as EU when they can get a significantly better deal by holding out on UK (who'll be desperate and are a smaller market which don't warrant as good of a deal if you look at it neutrally)?

Indeed. Why on earth would a country roll over the EU trade deals on the same terms just because they were part of the Great British empire/colony fest back in the 1800s and really great chums? More of the fantasy land world Brexiters have been living in the past 3+ years. WTO/no deal terms are absolutely dreadful. The UK is already an expensive place to buy/sell goods. Lashing tariffs on top would surely torpedo things completely.

McGiver · 03-08-2019 09:50PM

BluePlanet wrote:

I love the creative thinking there. But SF would never go along with it. The quickest route to a UI is a hard brexit and hard border and they know it.

Quickest but also the most expensive. Because hard Brexit would throw NI into a deep recession, unemployment, debts, deficits, so going ahead with UI in the such condition is significantly more costlier and also difficult in terms of economic asset well as political integration.

road_high · 03-08-2019 10:18PM

McGiver wrote: »

Quickest but also the most expensive. Because hard Brexit would throw NI into a deep recession, unemployment, debts, deficits, so going ahead with UI in the such condition is significantly more costlier and also difficult in terms of economic asset well as political integration.

It would already be like that without the subvention. It’s a basket case long before Brexit appeared

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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