Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs · 03-08-2019 08:18AM

Panrich wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.3972121?mode=amp

Some out of the box thinking here. It would be delicious to see the angst this would cause in Westminster

I think Fintans great but this is a bit mad.
Maybe borne out of Mary Lou being asked on Marr a few months back why SF don’t take their seats.
She replied nobody in her party has any business taking seats in the Parliament of another country. Which opens up the ‘well then...why run in the elections?’

It is out of the box thinking but as others have said, the way things are and are headed suits SF completely.

No way they’ll agree to anything like this.

Oh. Then this. He has a point.

https://twitter.com/fotoole/status/1157547812269240320?s=21

lawred2 · 03-08-2019 09:00AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I can’t get over this tweet.
It should be shown to every DUP member and hardcore loyalist. This is what they think of you. They don’t care about you or the peace in the north at all.
When bombs start going off in Belfast and London, brexit fanatics like this guy should be held directly accountable.

It is truly a cult fanaticism at this stage

Do the DUP care about peace? They stood against the GFA. Their words and actions in general aren't those of a peace loving party. They stand for Brexit against the wishes of NI as a whole.

I don't think British army regiments on the streets of NI would upset them too much. Given that they see them as being on 'their' side after all.

Brendan Filone · 03-08-2019 09:01AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Full interview with Jonathan Powell on newsnight. It’s so sad they don’t have even one among them who can compare with him.

‪ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPIGq_eiRBU‬

I sent this to a pro-Brexit colleague, his response:

"Powell is wrong and is simply regurgitating the Remain tactic of insisting there has to be hard border. Emily failed to challenge him on ROI/EU No Deal planning that already has theoretical discreet checks well away from the border, yep, no hard border. Someone will build hard border infrastructure when all sides say they won't? This is the kind of bollocks that has to be challenged, Maitlis swerved it, as she would. Her role was to facilitate Powell, not to rip him a new one."

Stop moaning ffs · 03-08-2019 09:06AM

Brendan Filone wrote: »

I sent this to a pro-Brexit colleague, his response:

"Powell is wrong and is simply regurgitating the Remain tactic of insisting there has to be hard border. Emily failed to challenge him on ROI/EU No Deal planning that already has theoretical discreet checks well away from the border, yep, no hard border. Someone will build hard border infrastructure when all sides say they won't? This is the kind of bollocks that has to be challenged, Maitlis swerved it, as she would. Her role was to facilitate Powell, not to rip him a new one."

There’s no getting through to that sort of hard headed brexiter

Enzokk · 03-08-2019 09:41AM

reslfj wrote: »

The 45.000 tons is a very small amount into a post Brexit - 450mill Single Market

Its 100 gram of beef per EU citizen per year.

The US has now 35.000 tons reserved out of the 45.000 tons.

Canada and Mercosur/Mercosul are no longer 3. countries after CETA and the new EU-Mercosur trade agreement has been signed.

Mercosur should get a 100.000 tons quota for beef (comments earlier in this thread)

But the history of the size of the 45.000 3. country quota or e.g. whether AR/BR/UY had their own quota or was included, is unknown to me.

I think, it is more interesting, who will have to share the just 10.000 tons beef, that remains of the 3. country quota.

Lars

Yeah, I thought that the meaning of 3rd country would mean any country that doesn't have a trade deal with the EU that would have quotas of goods included already.

So it could be that the US increase is more to do with other countries concluding their deals with the EU and allowing more space for the US to take up the existing quota that is spread among fewer countries.

As for the origin and quality of the beef, as long as the checks are done properly on the beef coming in, the same with the South American beef, it will be safe.

54and56 · 03-08-2019 10:54AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Some of those aren't in government. However you have the brains trust of Liz Truss, Dominic Raab, Priti (£1,000/hr) Patel, Nicky Morgan, Andrea Leadsom (shudder) and Steve Barclay to name but a few, I think it's worse than you are suggesting.

Yes, correct. Your list of actual govt participants is a better like for like comparison than mine. There are so many of them to choose from!!

Sam Russell · 03-08-2019 11:02AM

Brendan Filone wrote: »

I sent this to a pro-Brexit colleague, his response:

"Powell is wrong and is simply regurgitating the Remain tactic of insisting there has to be hard border. Emily failed to challenge him on ROI/EU No Deal planning that already has theoretical discreet checks well away from the border, yep, no hard border. Someone will build hard border infrastructure when all sides say they won't? This is the kind of bollocks that has to be challenged, Maitlis swerved it, as she would. Her role was to facilitate Powell, not to rip him a new one."

This just reflects Napoleon's view that England is a nation of shopkeepers. To the Little Englanders, everything is about trade.

In my view, the GFA can be summed up by this short maxim:

'Those that wish to look South see no border, while those that look East also see no border.'

The GFA is all about equality - equality of respect, equality of identity, equality of opportunity, etc. It is not about trade.

To the Brexiteers, Brexit is not about trade either, it is much more important than that - (whatever it is really about, if only they knew what is was really about).

Stop moaning ffs · 03-08-2019 11:09AM

Great read on the inevitable outcome of brexit for us.

https://twitter.com/johndurkan1/status/1157576476495101953?s=21

10000maniacs · 03-08-2019 11:23AM

Duplicate post

jm08 · 03-08-2019 12:58PM

brickster69 wrote: »

I never knew the US did hormone free beef. The guy said that the EU will be importing hormone free Beef

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1157354257689059331

This is a bone from the EU to Trump who is under fierce pressure from US farmers over Chinese tariffs.

This is a very good overview of the EU beef (hormone free) imports and how there has been a dispute with WTO over it.

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/wheres-the-hormone-free-beef

Joe_ Public · 03-08-2019 01:49PM

firemansam4 wrote: »

I've been keeping an eye on this thread for a while now, more as just a lurker.

I notice many here are hoping that if an election is called it may bring about another referendum.
But I don't think that another referendum would solve this brexit mess at all.
I just can't see any other outcome other than another majority for brexit.

The brexit crowd over there are treating this like a religion at this stage and you can guarantee that the vast majority of them would be out voting again on force in a 2nd referendum, its almost militant to them at this stage.

Where is all the opposition to brexit over there from remainers? I get the feeling that the turnout for remain voters would be a lot less. And it will end up just being a bigger margin for brexit in a second referendum leaving us all in the same mess we are at now.

Sorry to go back a bit, but i think in answer to your question, the remain vote remains vibrant but has had the wind taken out of its sails a bit by the recent concentration on the tory leadership contest and all the brouhaha over the border. I am certain it is there, just lying a bit dormant at the moment, for one reason or another. Dont forget the 1m who marched to parliament square last march or the many more millions who signed the petition. They haven't gone away, you know :-)

Strazdas · 03-08-2019 02:06PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Farage's Brexit party would love for, say, Corbyn to come out and say that he doesn't respect the referendum result, the people got it wrong and, if made PM, he Corbyn would revoke A50.

That is why it is not realistic to expect that to happen. We here in Ireland must deal with what is realistically going to happen and act accordingly in our interests.

Where is the leadership though? It is a government's duty and the duty of politicians in general to tell the public when they have messed up. They cannot be led from the bottom up, with the public formulating all policies (if that was the case, you'd probably have mob rule and the reintroduction of the death penalty).

There are plenty of times when the public need to be protected from themselves and their own stupidity. We're now in the bonkers scenario of some politicians claiming the UK electorate voted for No Deal.

Lackadaisical · 03-08-2019 02:38PM

jm08 wrote: »

This is a bone from the EU to Trump who is under fierce pressure from US farmers over Chinese tariffs.

This is a very good overview of the EU beef (hormone free) imports and how there has been a dispute with WTO over it.

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/wheres-the-hormone-free-beef

Not to derail the thread but the big issue with that in the EU isn’t simply a trade barrier. It’s about consumer choice and political pressure about food quality. It’s a pretty clear demonstration of powerful corporate lobbies in the US and a public that have totally different priorities vs powerful democratic consumer lobbies in the EU. There’s simply no political will to do that in the EU because the people don’t want it and express that through how they vote and also how they protest and lobby.

If the EU were to just cave into the US industry lobby they’d be seen as nothing but corporate shills and if anything, it's stuff like this that proves the European institutions very definitely have a mandate from the electorates of Europe.

You’ve also a totally different view of farming seen as a part of culture in much of Europe vs farming purely an industry in the US.

Guns and God may trigger Americans but food standards tend to trigger Europeans.

It’s also why I think the British will struggle to swallow American food standards - they’re more European in attitudes than the Brexiteers care to admit. Food quality and animal welfare are huge issues in reality in the UK.

Sam Russell · 03-08-2019 03:01PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

You’ve also a totally different view of farming seen as a part of culture in much of Europe vs farming purely an industry in the US.

Guns and God may trigger Americans but food standards tend to trigger Europeans.

It’s also why I think the British will struggle to swallow American food standards - they’re more European in attitudes than the Brexiteers care to admit. Food quality and animal welfare are huge issues in reality in the UK.

Look back at the founding ideas of the EEC, EC and EU. The basic philosophy was not trade, or growth or any economic benefit. The drive that created the EEC was to prevent war, and to prevent hunger and secure food supply. That is why 'ever closer union' is written into the treaties from the beginning. Just look at archive photos of roads filled with starving refugees pushing their few belongings in prams and carts on the march from one part of Europe to another to find safety, food and shelter in the aftermath of WW II. No-one could be unmoved by those scenes.

When Brexiteers invoke WW II, they think of plucky British soldiers and victory, not mass starvation, destruction and death. Mainland Europe has not forgotten - just look at the well kept war cemeteries.

It is this that the Brexiteers do not get. It is not trade, it is peace.

Rjd2 · 03-08-2019 03:05PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1157395907207450625

The UK is going to going to get absolutely rode in this US deal. If it even happens.

Hold up.....something not right here...

You mean to tell me Trump a protectionist and whose mantra is "America first" is going to squeeze the hell out of the UK?

An Claidheamh · 03-08-2019 03:11PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I can’t get over this tweet.
It should be shown to every DUP member and hardcore loyalist. This is what they think of you. They don’t care about you or the peace in the north at all.
When bombs start going off in Belfast and London, brexit fanatics like this guy should be held directly accountable.

It is truly a cult fanaticism at this stage

To be fair, he's a nobody, few followers, he may not even exist.

However, Brexit has showed and given a platform to so many xenophobes in the British ruling class - who with their adoration of their empire is probably not surprising.

Most of these Tories just repeat what they're told to, they have no idea what the GFA is, only that they were against it.

There is a whiff of desperation about their obstructionist strategy.

steddyeddy · 03-08-2019 03:14PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I can’t get over this tweet.
It should be shown to every DUP member and hardcore loyalist. This is what they think of you. They don’t care about you or the peace in the north at all.
When bombs start going off in Belfast and London, brexit fanatics like this guy should be held directly accountable.

It is truly a cult fanaticism at this stage

Don't forget the DUP didn't initially sign up to the GFA. They're supporters usually aren't much better.

Strazdas · 03-08-2019 03:34PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Look back at the founding ideas of the EEC, EC and EU. The basic philosophy was not trade, or growth or any economic benefit. The drive that created the EEC was to prevent war, and to prevent hunger and secure food supply. That is why 'ever closer union' is written into the treaties from the beginning. Just look at archive photos of roads filled with starving refugees pushing their few belongings in prams and carts on the march from one part of Europe to another to find safety, food and shelter in the aftermath of WW II. No-one could be unmoved by those scenes.

When Brexiteers invoke WW II, they think of plucky British soldiers and victory, not mass starvation, destruction and death. Mainland Europe has not forgotten - just look at the well kept war cemeteries.

It is this that the Brexiteers do not get. It is not trade, it is peace.

Frans Timmermans made this point on BBC's Panorama. The Brexiteers thought they could negotiate with the EU on the basis of trade and balancing the books, as if money and economics would be the sole priority for the EU in such a negotiation. No understanding at all that there might be political, cultural and societal elements to the negotiations.

Tell me how · 03-08-2019 03:47PM

This is actually real life.

01:30 for key part.

https://twitter.com/Kishan_Devani/status/1157624280273903618?s=19

I'm repeating myself now but this level of division and self-serving behavior was enough to start wars in the past. Thankfully we're beyond that in today's society but only just.

Igotadose · 03-08-2019 04:10PM

Tell me how wrote: »

I'm repeating myself now but this level of division and self-serving behavior was enough to start wars in the past. Thankfully we're beyond that in today's society but only just.

Are we beyond it? I wonder. Anyway, the worst I think was she could hardly keep from laughing. Doesn't take it seriously at all. Discouraging to say the least. At least JRM sounds like the talking cat from Sabrina the Teenage Witch who was always trying to sound serious.

ArmaniJeanss · 03-08-2019 04:12PM

Limpy wrote: »

50% voted for brexit party's. Will they make a pact? One wonders

I've been putting some thought (too much for a bh weekend) into the idea of a BXP/Tory pact.
Big problem I see is as follows.

I don't think it'll ever be consider acceptable for the Conservatives not to have a candidate in a constituency in a general election

Even in constituencies where they can't win they would expect to run a candidate for the 20% of people who represent their core vote. Often these campaigns are where they blood future MPs, i.e., you fight a losing campaign in some working class Merseyside constituency, do it well and next time you might be in line for a safe seat.

Even if they stood aside for BXP in some of these constituencies in urban northern/northeast areas, the Labour vote is still so traditionally solid that they may win regardless, albeit with reduced majorities.
The idea of the Conservatives standing aside in more southern areas seems even more implausible- this is their heartland really.

So I don't really see how a pact could work. Or at a specific level what sort of constituency it would apply to.

firemansam4 · 03-08-2019 04:36PM

Joe_ Public wrote:

Sorry to go back a bit, but i think in answer to your question, the remain vote remains vibrant but has had the wind taken out of its sails a bit by the recent concentration on the tory leadership contest and all the brouhaha over the border. I am certain it is there, just lying a bit dormant at the moment, for one reason or another. Dont forget the 1m who marched to parliament square last march or the many more millions who signed the petition. They haven't gone away, you know :-)

I've no doubt that there is a hard core of remain voters out there, but the Brexit crowd just seem more noisy and motivated.
I was over in England with relatives a few weeks and listening to conversations between their friends I noticed that the outrage of people who voted for Brexit shone through, while anyone who may have voted remain didn't say much at all on the matter.

I just have a feeling that if there was a second referendum a much higher percentage of people who want Brexit will turn out and vote compared to remainers. I really hope I am wrong on that, but it just seems that way to me.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-08-2019 05:38PM

Interesting contrast between Varadkar marching in public in Belfast today and the reception and Boris Johnson when he visited this week.

The latter literally flew in, had dinner with the DUP, and left. No public engagements at all.

road_high · 03-08-2019 05:44PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Look back at the founding ideas of the EEC, EC and EU. The basic philosophy was not trade, or growth or any economic benefit. The drive that created the EEC was to prevent war, and to prevent hunger and secure food supply. That is why 'ever closer union' is written into the treaties from the beginning. Just look at archive photos of roads filled with starving refugees pushing their few belongings in prams and carts on the march from one part of Europe to another to find safety, food and shelter in the aftermath of WW II. No-one could be unmoved by those scenes.

When Brexiteers invoke WW II, they think of plucky British soldiers and victory, not mass starvation, destruction and death. Mainland Europe has not forgotten - just look at the well kept war cemeteries.

It is this that the Brexiteers do not get. It is not trade, it is peace.

They always had a bee in their bonnets that they weren’t a founding member and bit players compared to France and Germany- “we can’t own the house so we’ll try destroy it instead”- that’s the Brexit mentality

joeysoap · 03-08-2019 05:51PM

I agree, lot of previous retainers are now saying ‘ just get on with it’ . Younger people in the main are not really that involved. And Corby didn’t show leadership when it was needed. Young people do look for leadership. Far too late now, best we can hope for is a managed Brexit. Truth is Corbin wants Brexit anyway, anything else is being forced on him .

Joe_ Public · 03-08-2019 05:52PM

road_high wrote: »

They always had a bee in their bonnets that they weren’t a founding member and bit players compared to France and Germany- “we can’t own the house so we’ll try destroy it instead”- that’s the Brexit mentality

But that was a choice they made, though, wasn't it? It wasn't that they were forced to stand on the margins while the continental powers proceeded surreptitiously without them, anymore than they are now facing entrapment through the cruel and undemocratic backstop. Churchill never seemed to make his mind up as to whether Britain would be a full, participating entity or remain sort of half in, like a benevolent overseer. That ambiguity has always been its default position, it seems.

road_high · 03-08-2019 05:52PM

They’re obsessed with other countries leaving and destroying the EU. Anyone I ever meet from the Continent doesn’t even comprehend such a ridiculous notion

road_high · 03-08-2019 05:55PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

But that was a choice they made, though, wasn't it? It wasn't that they were forced to stand on the margins while the continental powers proceeded surreptitiously without them, anymore than they are now facing entrapment through the cruel and undemocratic backstop. Churchill never seemed to make his mind up as to whether Britain would be a full, participating entity or remain sort of half in, like a benevolent overseer. That ambiguity has always been its default position, it seems.

It was a choice they made alright because they’re so insular and wrapped up in the Union flag they could’ve see the benefits until much later. It does gaul them it’s been a success in spite of them and the Germans are the lead country despite both world wars where GB see themselves as nothing but the goodies in it all.

road_high · 03-08-2019 06:01PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Do the DUP care about peace? They stood against the GFA. Their words and actions in general aren't those of a peace loving party. They stand for Brexit against the wishes of NI as a whole.

I don't think British army regiments on the streets of NI would upset them too much. Given that they see them as being on 'their' side after all.

Nothing would make them happier to see “their” army back on the Queens highways

Stop moaning ffs · 03-08-2019 06:02PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Don't forget the DUP didn't initially sign up to the GFA. They're supporters usually aren't much better.

There’s a thread on a United ireland in the current affairs forum. Clearly infected by bots but the real posters from the unionist side are even worse.

Don’t look for it unless you have eye and mind bleach.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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