Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ambro25 · 02-08-2019 02:28PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

<...>

The amount of pro-Brexit voters I know is incredibly small. My aunt is obsessed with Turkey joining the EU so she voted Leave. I've explained Turkey's stalled bid to her numerous times after but she's still obsessed with it. She's also fairly wealthy and has the whole "Sure, we've survived worse" mentality. Not encouraging.

(...)

As you know I lived and worked in the North until last year and, comparatively, we accidentally knew loads: I say "accidentally", because we never used to talk politics with them much (little to no interest for younger ones, 'things improper to discuss' for elderer ones), so their positions about the 2016 ref. were all broadly unknown to me.

It wasn't until the weeks and months later, as Brexit was beginning to become fashionably all-consuming (summer and late 2016, long before Brexit fatigue started to set in) that friends and family came out about their Leave vote, in dicussions at parties or BBQ and such.

Turns out it was the vast majority of them, from normal people I'd known and had very friendly relations with over decades. Even my (elderly, but smart, well-travelled and broadminded) mother-in-law of 23 years, and our best friends of 26 years (to the point I gave her a way on her wedding day)! And I do mean 'normal': not particularly opinionated, not an ounce of xenophobia, no UKIP-like stances in chats or anything, a few degree-educated, even an MBA in there..

It was a shock to me, let me tell you. And I took it bad, a betrayal in the purest, literal sense of the word.

Shelga is right, btw. Which won't be any news to you, ancap, nor any consolation for the Irish held hostage to this crisis against their will, just as much as the 5millions: I've long, long been convinced (mid-2017) that the Brits need to go through the hardships of a no deal, to come to realise what their EU membership ever did for them. Both Leavers and the larger body of apathetic types.

Tell me how · 02-08-2019 02:29PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's what happens with extremists. When you found an alliance based on hatred and ignorance, you can't be surprised when those forces are turned on each other.

Cummings hates Farage. So much so that he vetoed Vote Leave collaborating with Leave.EU in 2016 which was a shrewd move on his part.

I'd be backing Farage to persevere. Cummings will be out 0.3 seconds after Johnson starts to slip.

Strazdas · 02-08-2019 02:34PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's what happens with extremists. When you found an alliance based on hatred and ignorance, you can't be surprised when those forces are turned on each other.

Cummings hates Farage. So much so that he vetoed Vote Leave collaborating with Leave.EU in 2016 which was a shrewd move on his part.

It's definitely intriguing. We have Johnson-Cummings on the one side and Farage, Baker and the ERG on the other. It's anyone's guess how this will play out in the coming months and what way the right wing press will spin it.

volchitsa · 02-08-2019 02:36PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Brexit is purely an internal British (English) crisis at this stage. It has nothing to do with the EU or Ireland. The country seems to be going through some sort of collective nervous breakdown.

If it was really about EU membership and nothing else, people would be acting normally and rationally and be open to persuasion. It's more that the country is deeply, deeply divided on a whole load of things and struggling with its identity.

I think that may well be true. We had the various referenda here about marriage equality and abortion and now divorce, and while those are deeply divisive issues, and there was indeed significant division among people, at least there were arguments being had on both sides.

in the UK people seem to have bought into the Brexit idea without knowing why, it's like they just "feel it in their waters" or something. There's no argument to be had, it's just a fact. Like saying you don't like a group and don't want to go to their concert.

Strazdas · 02-08-2019 02:41PM

volchitsa wrote: »

I think that may well be true. We had the various referenda here about marriage equality and abortion and now divorce, and while those are deeply divisive issues, and there was indeed significant division among people, at least there were arguments being had on both sides.

in the UK people seem to have bought into the Brexit idea without knowing why, it's like they just "feel it in their waters" or something. There's no argument to be had, it's just a fact. Like saying you don't like a group and don't want to go to their concert.

Yes, if it was purely about whether membership of the EU is a good idea or whether the UK should remain or leave in the wake of the referendum result, you would expect the Brexit debate to be much more sane and rational and logical. There seems to be something much deeper going on.....perhaps a society that was already deeply divided even before the referendum was held.

LordBasil · 02-08-2019 02:49PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The attempt to create a divide here by saying there is a divide in Ireland and lack of support for leo and the backstop, failed spectacularly as far as I can tell. It’s had the opposite effect of galvanising support.
I wonder are we impervious to that sort of manipulation via media here as the Brits are so obviously and easily manipulated, or is it more a case of bloody Brits at it again, and we’re not going to be pushed around anymore?

*numerous versions of ‘please for the love of god stop making me defend Leo’ tweets and posts all over the place

Yeah, It's united the country in defending FG's position!!

I think after all the scandals that have been revealed over the past 30 years or so in Ireland, (e.g Clerical Sexual Abuse, Magdalene Laundries, Tuam Babies, Planning Corruption, Banking Crisis, Anglo and so on) people here are maybe more cynical about claims politicians or media outlets make and question things more? I don't think we are immune from populism but I think we are less likely to fall into it than the British.

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 02:49PM

ambro25 wrote: »

As you know I lived and worked in the North until last year and, comparatively, we accidentally knew loads: I say "accidentally", because we never used to talk politics with them much (little to no interest for younger ones, 'things improper to discuss' for elderer ones), so their positions about the 2016 ref. were all broadly unknown to me.

It wasn't until the weeks and months later, as Brexit was beginning to become fashionably all-consuming (summer and late 2016, long before Brexit fatigue started to set in) that friends and family came out about their Leave vote, in dicussions at parties or BBQ and such.

Turns out it was the vast majority of them, from normal people I'd known and had very friendly relations with over decades. Even my (elderly, but smart, well-travelled and broadminded) mother-in-law of 23 years, and our best friends of 26 years (to the point I gave her a way on her wedding day)! And I do mean 'normal': not particularly opinionated, not an ounce of xenophobia, no UKIP-like stances in chats or anything, a few degree-educated, even an MBA in there..

It was a shock to me, let me tell you. And I took it bad, a betrayal in the purest, literal sense of the word.

Shelga is right, btw. Which won't be any news to you, ancap, nor any consolation for the Irish held hostage to this crisis against their will, just as much as the 5millions: I've long, long been convinced (mid-2017) that the Brits need to go through the hardships of a no deal, to come to realise what their EU membership ever did for them. Both Leavers and the larger body of apathetic types.

I believe you. I lived in Manchester until the end of 2013. This was well before the referendum of course and I hadn't many ties to the area. I did know an ardent Tory free marketeer who surprisingly voted remain given his libertarian leanings though.

My job can be surmised as ACD providing high end technical services to EU researchers based in London so I'm obviously highly biased against leaving with no deal. I've tried to prepare contingencies against it such as trying and failing to learn Python. That leaves me with either learning an EU language to fluency by Hallowe'en or heading home to collect benefits as my job doesn't exist in Ireland. I've had to postpone a career change that I've discussed with your good self as well as a potential family investment in property here.

The Turk-obsessed aunt and myself were reduced to screaming at each other in the lead up to the referendum while her posh friend wailed about "too many n****ers" as the height of my attempts to engage with wealthy Tory types. I know good people who voted Brexit though not too many. I'm younger than yourself so that might be biasing the sorts of people I associate with.

BobbyBobberson · 02-08-2019 03:09PM

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1157287550714884096

This is the type muck bandied around by Tories. It is Brexit it all costs. And when it does go tits up, there will be two parties to blame. The EU and The Irish.

A Dub in Glasgo · 02-08-2019 03:23PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

The sight of English Labour MPs parading around Scotland campaigning for a vote for a continuance of English dominance over Scottish independence was galling.

The most cringing part of that was the group of English Labour MPs who all travelled on the same train from England and walked en mass from Glasgow Central station. This guy managed to capture them well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiMXuEmqAHA&t

Water John · 02-08-2019 03:31PM

The biggest lesson Johnson and Farage will take from yesterday's byelection is that, one leave candidate would have won it. That will not be lost on them. So Farage can pile on the pressure if there is a likelyhood of a GE before leaving. He'll only stand back if Johnson assures him.
The counter to that is Johnson knows he's cooked if Brexit Party runs candidates.

Maybe the Tory candidate was popular, I think he was, despite the false invoices. Otherwise the Leave vote in that constituency hasn't changed since 2016.

J Mysterio · 02-08-2019 03:32PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The most cringing part of that was the group of English Labour MPs who all travelled on the same train from England and walked en mass from Glasgow Central station. This guy managed to capture them well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiMXuEmqAHA&t

Oh my god, that is absolutely hilarious.

BluePlanet · 02-08-2019 03:55PM

volchitsa wrote: »

in the UK people seem to have bought into the Brexit idea without knowing why, it's like they just "feel it in their waters" or something. There's no argument to be had, it's just a fact. Like saying you don't like a group and don't want to go to their concert.

Yes, this is really dark stuff going on.
It's as though a mass brainwashing has been occurring, slowly ticking away over the last couple decades.

It's the sort of irrational hyper-patriotism thing you see in USA when you have anything remotely negative to say about the US, say about healthcare; people get all red-faced and react emotionally.

People have learned these emotional triggers.

Kaybaykwah · 02-08-2019 04:09PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Yes, this is really dark stuff going on.
It's as though a mass brainwashing has been occurring, slowly ticking away over the last couple decades.

It's the sort of irrational hyper-patriotism thing you see in USA when you have anything remotely negative to say about the US, say about healthcare; people get all red-faced and react emotionally.

People have learned these emotional triggers.

You have to realize that there are the nefarious Powers that be, those pulling the strings in both the UK, the US steering the candidacies of party leaders outside of the popular will.

Bernie Sanders was isolated by the DNC in the last campaign, and will again be sunk by those who are beholdened to massive special interests. Who needs Russian inteference when Goldman Sachs and Davos creeps have got it all down?

Stop moaning ffs · 02-08-2019 04:19PM

Brilliant interview with Billy Bragg on brexit on the it podcast.
Such an insightful mind.

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/irish-times-inside-politics/id794389685?i=1000445935266

Water John · 02-08-2019 04:19PM

A new poster, but well accuainted with, whataboutery.
The purge of the voting register might be more worthy of concern;
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/01/voter-purges-us-elections-brennan-center-report

prawnsambo · 02-08-2019 04:20PM

Kaybaykwah wrote: »

You have to realize that there are the nefarious Powers that be...

I thought this was satirical...

Anyhow, the link between the US and UK is the similarity in the political systems. Two tribes essentially and a winner takes all mentality. "You lost, get over it" pretty much sums it up. Fintan O'Toole's book expands on this.

Valhallapt · 02-08-2019 04:30PM

You couldn’t make this stuff up

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1157197235597250561

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1157197235597250561

Sorry not sure how to embed tweet from mobile

FrancieBrady · 02-08-2019 04:33PM

Fintan O'Toole with an interesting proposal. Hard to see how Westminister wouldn't see this as anything other than the 'RA in sheep's clothing though.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.3972121?fbclid=IwAR0MMOmRebJyRLWKXAo5LU3MXyt4DBVi_vdIzrbzi2qNr09SsEIv-1_MGmY

farmchoice · 02-08-2019 04:42PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Fintan O'Toole with an interesting proposal. Hard to see how Westminister wouldn't see this as anything other than the 'RA in sheep's clothing though.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.3972121?fbclid=IwAR0MMOmRebJyRLWKXAo5LU3MXyt4DBVi_vdIzrbzi2qNr09SsEIv-1_MGmY

in fairness to fintan it is an original and imaginative proportion. i ca see many reasons why sinn fein might not go for it but even if they did i'm not sure it would make a difference.

as it stands johnson does not have a working majority on brexit, any vote that may take place to stop a no deal brexit will pass.

whether or not such a vote will occur is the question.

DOCARCH · 02-08-2019 04:42PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Fintan O'Toole with an interesting proposal. Hard to see how Westminister wouldn't see this as anything other than the 'RA in sheep's clothing though.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.3972121?fbclid=IwAR0MMOmRebJyRLWKXAo5LU3MXyt4DBVi_vdIzrbzi2qNr09SsEIv-1_MGmY

Interesting proposal! Can you imagine Adrian Dunbar in the HoC....hey fella!

Maybe SF would be more worried their MPs would not get re-elected!!!

FrancieBrady · 02-08-2019 04:44PM

farmchoice wrote: »

in fairness to fintan it is an original and imaginative proportion. i ca see many reasons why sinn fein might not go for it but even if they did i'm not sure it would make a difference.

as it stands johnson does not have a working majority on brexit, any vote that may take place to stop a no deal brexit will pass.

whether or not such a vote will occur is the question.

Can you imagine the ERG's response to it though. Thinking about it, although novel, it would only serve to harden middle ground opinion in the wrong direction. Counterproductive.

FrancieBrady · 02-08-2019 04:45PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

Interesting proposal!

Maybe SF would be more worried their MPs would not get re-elected!!!

Well, wouldn't any party for that matter. Voters might not be impressed either and abstain.

Kaybaykwah · 02-08-2019 04:47PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I thought this was satirical...

No, it was a straightpipe intro, I'm afraid.

prawnsambo wrote: »

Anyhow, the link between the US and UK is the similarity in the political systems. Two tribes essentially and a winner takes all mentality. "You lost, get over it" pretty much sums it up. Fintan O'Toole's book expands on this.

Yes, in France, the last election sort of created the same kind of questioning about the future of the old system of Right and Leftist parties that got the boot. Macron is definitely the product of a steerage committee from the new Imperialists; the dismantlers of Nation states; i.e.; Corporate interests. That is the sad thing about the E.U. The leadership is less concerned with local interests by definition and on the street, as it were.

farmchoice · 02-08-2019 04:51PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Can you imagine the ERG's response to it though. Thinking about it, although novel, it would only serve to harden middle ground opinion in the wrong direction. Counterproductive.

ya at best it i think it would achieve little and at worst it could alienate some pro eu tory mp's.

Strazdas · 02-08-2019 04:53PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

You couldn’t make this stuff up

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1157197235597250561

The Irish Govt wouldn't even be allowed negotiate Britain's relationship with the Single Market "bilaterally" with the UK. It's purely a negotiation between the UK and the EU.

Tell me how · 02-08-2019 05:01PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The Irish Govt wouldn't even be allowed negotiate Britain's relationship with the Single Market "bilaterally" with the UK. It's purely a negotiation between the UK and the EU.

It's Arlene Foster talking to JHB.
It's for a target audience. It's not public discussion.

Kermit.de.frog · 02-08-2019 05:03PM

Northern Ireland is bailed out every single year to a tune so large they don't want UK taxpayers to know.

Plus UK bilateral contribution to Irish bailout was a small percentage of the overall bailout from bilateral loans, IMF and EU.

A Dub in Glasgo · 02-08-2019 05:04PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Fintan O'Toole with an interesting proposal. Hard to see how Westminister wouldn't see this as anything other than the 'RA in sheep's clothing though.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.3972121?fbclid=IwAR0MMOmRebJyRLWKXAo5LU3MXyt4DBVi_vdIzrbzi2qNr09SsEIv-1_MGmY

Now that is a new take on things

The one thing to be cautious of is the myriad and archiac rules regarding parliament so would have to be pretty certain that there is no way the knowledgable folk in the HoC can stop it

FrancieBrady · 02-08-2019 05:05PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

You couldn’t make this stuff up

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1157197235597250561

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1157197235597250561

Sorry not sure how to embed tweet from mobile

What does Arlene believe Johnson and Leo can achieve would be an interesting question. Is Boris holding something back from the EU that he might offer Leo?

Tell me how · 02-08-2019 05:08PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What does Arlene believe Johnson and Leo can achieve would be an interesting question. Is Boris holding something back from the EU that he might offer Leo?

He is in his bleep.

A bilateral conversation would allow UK to try to bully Ireland in to some acceptance of a hypothetical joint effort to come to a solution.

It's playground tactics of a bully telling the guy who owns the football, ' come here till I talk to you'.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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