Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Shelga · 02-08-2019 12:57PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

British people working in Ireland sending money home, will be quite the historical turn around. UK government has worse case scenario for sterling as losing another 25%. Worse case scenario obvs but would be astonishing to see impacts if it lost even another 10%.

Ha, well I was more picturing people in their 20s who want to escape what Britain has become, at least for a few years, or people with families who work in the City, who will now think they would have a better and more stable standard of living in somewhere like Berlin or Dublin.

I think there could be all sorts of reasons people could look to leave, whereas it wouldn't have entered their heads 5 years ago.

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 12:57PM

Shelga wrote: »

But I’m not basing my judgement on just the media. I went back to England recently, for a visit to some old colleagues from my team, one of whom was leaving. A lot of them are middle-aged men, they all voted for the Brexit Party.

They work for an automotive company, for god’s sake.

I came away feeling really unsettled. It’s honestly like they’ve been brainwashed.

These people cannot be helped. A shock to the system is the only thing that will do it, and even then, I think they will blame other factors rather than admit they were fooled.

That's fair enough. I get the same feeling talking to my family who are Unionists and Trump admirers.

The thing is that the Tory-DUP alliance today has a majority of one vote. Johnson's position is perilous and it looks like Europe will claim the scalp of a fifth consecutive Conservative PM.

Calina wrote: »

The UK will not do this. They will campaign on the need to reform the EU from within.

The need for substantial reform in the UK is not discussed.

I would hope that the campaign, should it happen would focus on British leadership of the EU and on reforming both the EU and the UK. The latter I have close to no hope for.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'd be curious to know how many of those are informed of the pros & cons of leaving and the different impact on the UK from either remaining, the WA and from a no-deal exit.
I'd put money down that they still largely don't know or understand the details and would vote in whatever way their Facebook feed tells them.

The amount of pro-Brexit voters I know is incredibly small. My aunt is obsessed with Turkey joining the EU so she voted Leave. I've explained Turkey's stalled bid to her numerous times after but she's still obsessed with it. She's also fairly wealthy and has the whole "Sure, we've survived worse" mentality. Not encouraging.

I don't think the majority would be that well informed if it were not for the sheer farce the Conservatives have made of things and everyone at least would agree on that. There is nobody here who voted Leave in 2016 with the Withdrawal Agreement in mind (I've not a source for this so you can take that or leave it).

BobbyBobberson · 02-08-2019 01:00PM

Shelga wrote: »

Ha, well I was more picturing people in their 20s who want to escape what Britain has become, at least for a few years, or people with families who work in the City, who will now think they would have a better and more stable standard of living in somewhere like Berlin or Dublin.

I think there could be all sorts of reasons people could look to leave, whereas it wouldn't have entered their heads 5 years ago.

Absolutely, I have spoken to some who just want to leave because they cannot be arsed with it all. People looking at moving abroad pre Oct 31st as they "have had enough of this ****e". It is lead the headlines every day for over three years, its brutal.

BonnieSituation · 02-08-2019 01:03PM

newport2 wrote: »

No.

The whole problem with Brexit is that it was all about preserving the Tory party, which should have split in the 90's because it was divided on the fundamental issue of Europe. Cost John Major back then. Once the Tories were back in power again after Blair, it resurfaced. The Brexit referendum was called by Cameron to see off the UKIP party under Farage and stop Tory members from going to them. Once May was in power all her red lines were drawn trying to keep both sides of the Tory party happy - impossible. Now Johnson has built a totally pro-leave party, in large get Tory votes back from the Brexit party. Everything stems back to the division in the Tories that has been there for decades. Hopefully they will eventually split.

Hopefully they'll be destroyed.

Oddly, they will be destroyed of they win the GE imho.

Rjd2 · 02-08-2019 01:10PM

https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1157190562983944192

The Brexit Party don't seem to understand there presence in the next election will probably mean Brexit is even less likely as it will hurt the only party who genuinely want Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/mark-francois-tory-rebels-vow-to-block-brexit-deal-even-without-backstop

Then you get this,,,its wild,,,yet again a supposed committed Brexiter is again threatening to block Brexit.

BonnieSituation · 02-08-2019 01:20PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1157190562983944192

The Brexit Party don't seem to understand there presence in the next election will probably mean Brexit is even less likely as it will hurt the only party who genuinely want Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/mark-francois-tory-rebels-vow-to-block-brexit-deal-even-without-backstop

Then you get this,,,its wild,,,yet again a supposed committed Brexiter is again threatening to block Brexit.

Ha. Good luck campaigning in the likes of Foyle and South Down! Or most of Scotland!

20silkcut · 02-08-2019 01:20PM

Shelga wrote: »

Also, Irish people are used to emigrating when times get tough. Britain has never experienced that before. I’m not saying it’s a good thing, but we’ve all done it, and you adapt.

Was there a lot of emigration from England during the Callaghan Labour government of the late 70’s. Always found that strange at a time when Irish people were emigrating in their droves to England. Although a lot of Irish people came home in the late 70’s too.
The 50’s /60’s and 80’s were the peak years of Irish emigration to England.

Enzokk · 02-08-2019 01:21PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I disagree based on what I've seen with my English friends who voted Brexit, then regretted it, and are now keen for No Deal.

I'm aware you live there so you have a better handle on the local sentiment. But I do think the rerun would be painted so negatively, it would still be against Remain or anything sensible.

I think the remain camp in a new referendum would have to get the message across that the facts surrounding Brexit has changed and this is not the same referendum as before. They will need to quote the likes of Gove and Farage and Johnson and Hannan on their pronouncements of not leaving the single market or getting a deal. The option in front of the British people is not that so it is only natural that a new referendum is held with these new facts. Yes it will not penetrate to all voters, but hopefully just enough that this is not just a re-run of the previous referendum but about 2 options open to the UK.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If in the event that an election comes about and the Lib Dem’s get in with some form of coalition with ______ and they revoke article 50 and cancel the whole thing, what would public reaction be? I can see that bringing about trouble.
The most vocal leavers online are the very sort to cause ructions from what I can tell

If the Lib Dem's run on a manifesto of overturning article 50 and they secure a majority then they have a mandate to do that. If they are a major partner in a coalition then I suspect they will happily settle for a second referendum of no-deal vs remain. They will not be negotiating a Brexit deal and if they were to lose the referendum on those terms I suspect another election would be on the cards.

Strazdas · 02-08-2019 01:23PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1157190562983944192

The Brexit Party don't seem to understand there presence in the next election will probably mean Brexit is even less likely as it will hurt the only party who genuinely want Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/mark-francois-tory-rebels-vow-to-block-brexit-deal-even-without-backstop

Then you get this,,,its wild,,,yet again a supposed committed Brexiter is again threatening to block Brexit.

Most of the Brexit Party candidates will be virtually unelectable. They have a high number of loons and cranks among their ranks (given that their leader is one). As you say, they will merely damage the Tories.

Rjd2 · 02-08-2019 01:23PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Ha. Good luck campaigning in the likes of Foyle and South Down! Or most of Scotland!

The funny thing is I'd cut them some slack if I thought the likes of Francois and Farage's opposition was 100% driven by a dream of this "pure" Brexit,,but lets be honest its also motivated by the fact that these guys know there 15 minutes of fame would be over if Johnson somehow was to get a deal passed. :rolleyes:

lawred2 · 02-08-2019 01:30PM

Shelga wrote: »

But I’m not basing my judgement on just the media. I went back to England recently, for a visit to some old colleagues from my team, one of whom was leaving. A lot of them are middle-aged men, they all voted for the Brexit Party.

They work for an automotive company, for god’s sake.

I came away feeling really unsettled. It’s honestly like they’ve been brainwashed.

These people cannot be helped. A shock to the system is the only thing that will do it, and even then, I think they will blame other factors rather than admit they were fooled.

My in-laws visit regularly and while they are open to debate pretty much the only stuff I get in return are sound bytes clearly sourced from the Mail and Telegraph.

All of it - complete bollocks of course but read this stuff enough times and you subconsciously begin to think that it 'can't all be bollocks surely'

Well - it is all bollocks. Every single bit of it.

Tell me how · 02-08-2019 01:31PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

The Brexit Party don't seem to understand there presence in the next election will probably mean Brexit is even less likely as it will hurt the only party who genuinely want Brexit.

If Brexiteers think Remainers are going to strategise at a GE, like Plaid Cymru did yesterday, I think we could see Tory-Brexit Party alliances if sorts to deliver Brexit.

It's a country in a mess at the moment.

Stop moaning ffs · 02-08-2019 01:33PM

Tell me how wrote: »

If Brexiteers think Remainers are going to strategise at a GE, like Plaid Cymru did yesterday, I think we could see Tory-Brexit Party alliances if sorts to deliver Brexit.

It's a country in a mess at the moment.

Johnson and Farage both said they wouldn’t go into coalition.
Farage said trump told him he should get to work with Boris.

I can actually see it happening. That said brexit party is largely made up of unelectables.

Strazdas · 02-08-2019 01:41PM

Shelga wrote: »

But I’m not basing my judgement on just the media. I went back to England recently, for a visit to some old colleagues from my team, one of whom was leaving. A lot of them are middle-aged men, they all voted for the Brexit Party.

They work for an automotive company, for god’s sake.

I came away feeling really unsettled. It’s honestly like they’ve been brainwashed.

These people cannot be helped. A shock to the system is the only thing that will do it, and even then, I think they will blame other factors rather than admit they were fooled.

Brexit is purely an internal British (English) crisis at this stage. It has nothing to do with the EU or Ireland. The country seems to be going through some sort of collective nervous breakdown.

If it was really about EU membership and nothing else, people would be acting normally and rationally and be open to persuasion. It's more that the country is deeply, deeply divided on a whole load of things and struggling with its identity.

Seth Brundle · 02-08-2019 01:47PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1157190562983944192

The Brexit Party don't seem to understand there presence in the next election will probably mean Brexit is even less likely as it will hurt the only party who genuinely want Brexit.

Any sign of some policies in areas other than "we will leave the EU"?

Rjd2 · 02-08-2019 01:48PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Johnson and Farage both said they wouldn’t go into coalition.
Farage said trump told him he should get to work with Boris.

I can actually see it happening. That said brexit party is largely made up of unelectables.

Cummings who is pretty much dictating everything loathes Farage and the feeling is mutual. They may form a pact but I'd be shocked.

Boris is hoping he can somehow get Brexit through and that would mean a collapse in the support of the brexit party.

Best of luck with that Boris.:pac:

Rjd2 · 02-08-2019 01:48PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Any sign of some policies in areas other than "we will leave the EU"?

I've been reliably informed that Brexit means Brexit and the will of the people must be respected:)

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 01:52PM

Tell me how wrote: »

If Brexiteers think Remainers are going to strategise at a GE, like Plaid Cymru did yesterday, I think we could see Tory-Brexit Party alliances if sorts to deliver Brexit.

It's a country in a mess at the moment.

A Tory-Brexit party alliance can't really happen. If Johnson successfully leaves the EU by 31 October then the Brexit party will just die away. If he doesn't, then there is no chance that the Tories will stand down in any seat they think they have a reasonable chance of winning. The Brexit party might stand down for the likes of Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker but that'd be the height of it. The Tory party still has its liberal and one nation wings so they need to win big in a GE as well.

Strazdas · 02-08-2019 01:58PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

Cummings who is pretty much dictating everything loathes Farage and the feeling is mutual. They may form a pact but I'd be shocked.

Boris is hoping he can somehow get Brexit through and that would mean a collapse in the support of the brexit party.

Best of luck with that Boris.:pac:

There's an interesting split going on at the moment. The Sun were praising Cummings to high heaven yesterday and slagging off Farage.

Keep an eye on this Cummings - Farage feud....we could end up with two distinct Brexit camps at war with each other.

Tell me how · 02-08-2019 02:00PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A Tory-Brexit party alliance can't really happen. If Johnson successfully leaves the EU by 31 October then the Brexit party will just die away. If he doesn't, then there is no chance that the Tories will stand down in any seat they think they have a reasonable chance of winning. The Brexit party might stand down for the likes of Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker but that'd be the height of it. The Tory party still has its liberal and one nation wings so they need to win big in a GE as well.

It's not about the seats they've a chance of winning, it's about the seats they are likely just going to lose.
That's where I think we may see Brexit Party supporting the Tory's so as not to dilute the leave vote. With some form of an understanding, if not outright published joint manifesto.

Since May left, the Tories top table is much less 'Party first' than it was. It's government is now Brexit first, then party but a distant second I think. (I understand the Tory membership is still Tory first but the government isn't really going to be affected by their opinions for a while)

Calina · 02-08-2019 02:01PM

I would be interested for now to know how the Bannon-Cummins relationship is.

Strazdas · 02-08-2019 02:04PM

Calina wrote: »

I would be interested for now to know how the Bannon-Cummins relationship is.

Cummings and the right wing press is another one. It almost sounds like he is telling them what articles to write.

Sam Russell · 02-08-2019 02:08PM

Tell me how wrote: »

It's not about the seats they've a chance of winning, it's about the seats they are likely just going to lose.
That's where I think we may see Brexit Party supporting the Tory's so as not to dilute the leave vote. With some form of an understanding, if not outright published joint manifesto.

Since May left, the Tories top table is much less 'Party first' than it was. It's government is now Brexit first, then party but a distant second I think. (I understand the Tory membership is still Tory first but the government isn't really going to be affected by their opinions for a while)

It is what the voters think, not what the Tory Party members think.

I could never understand why working class voters ever would vote Tory. It is just wrong for a working class voter to vote for the likes of JRM, or Boris, or Cameron. Why do they do it?

Stop moaning ffs · 02-08-2019 02:11PM

The attempt to create a divide here by saying there is a divide in Ireland and lack of support for leo and the backstop, failed spectacularly as far as I can tell. It’s had the opposite effect of galvanising support.
I wonder are we impervious to that sort of manipulation via media here as the Brits are so obviously and easily manipulated, or is it more a case of bloody Brits at it again, and we’re not going to be pushed around anymore?

*numerous versions of ‘please for the love of god stop making me defend Leo’ tweets and posts all over the place

Tell me how · 02-08-2019 02:12PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is what the voters think, not what the Tory Party members think.

I could never understand why working class voters ever would vote Tory. It is just wrong for a working class voter to vote for the likes of JRM, or Boris, or Cameron. Why do they do it?

Think it depends on your definition of working class.

If it's those at lower end if scale in terms of employment, earnings, education then I doubt many do vote Tory.

If it's medium scale earners with college education then I'd imagine the Labour message felt a bit too socialist for them and so they vote Tory.

Same here, many give out about FF/FG but the perception of AAA/PBP etc is less appealing.

Strazdas · 02-08-2019 02:13PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is what the voters think, not what the Tory Party members think.

I could never understand why working class voters ever would vote Tory. It is just wrong for a working class voter to vote for the likes of JRM, or Boris, or Cameron. Why do they do it?

I suppose Tories vs Labour would be like FF vs FG say 50+ years ago. Your family would be traditionally one or the other

All of that seems to be totally fragmenting with Brexit though. We may very well be watching the permanent end of two party politics in the UK

Sam Russell · 02-08-2019 02:19PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I suppose Tories vs Labour would be like FF vs FG say 50+ years ago. Your family would be traditionally one or the other

All of that seems to be totally fragmenting with Brexit though. We may very well be watching the permanent end of two party politics in the UK

That will only occur if they go for STV type voting and ditch the undemocratic FPTP.

Their whole system is based on two party carve up.

If Labour had realised they would lose all their seats in Scotland after the IndyRef, would they have either not campaigned, or gone for Indy, hoping to benefit in the subsequent Scottish Gov?

The sight of English Labour MPs parading around Scotland campaigning for a vote for a continuance of English dominance over Scottish independence was galling.

abff · 02-08-2019 02:22PM

Why can't they just ditch the DUP and go back to having Brexit with no land border in Ireland, but border controls between NI and the rest of the UK? Surely there's a chance this would get enough support from members of other parties to leave them no longer relying on the DUP.

Although I guess this would then lead to a general election as there is no way they could win a vote of no confidence if they turn the DUP against them.

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 02:23PM

Strazdas wrote: »

There's an interesting split going on at the moment. The Sun were praising Cummings to high heaven yesterday and slagging off Farage.

Keep an eye on this Cummings - Farage feud....we could end up with two distinct Brexit camps at war with each other.

That's what happens with extremists. When you found an alliance based on hatred and ignorance, you can't be surprised when those forces are turned on each other.

Cummings hates Farage. So much so that he vetoed Vote Leave collaborating with Leave.EU in 2016 which was a shrewd move on his part.

FrancieBrady · 02-08-2019 02:28PM

abff wrote: »

Why can't they just ditch the DUP and go back to having Brexit with no land border in Ireland, but border controls between NI and the rest of the UK?

It will eventually or they revoke the whole thing.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Comments