Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

20silkcut · 01-08-2019 07:02PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Did Jack Lynch abandon the north ? What would have happened had he sent the Irish army over the border into the north at that time ? It wouldn't have been a good outcome.

There was a feasibility study done on this at the time and the conclusion was the Irish army would have held the town of newry for about 24 hours. Utterly futile.

Kaybaykwah · 01-08-2019 07:10PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The argument that "we're not going to put up a hard border, so if the EU do that's up to them" is one of the more pathetic examples of abandoning responsibility that I've seen in this whole process from Brexit supporters. They literally campaigned under the slogan 'take back control of our land and borders'.

It's a bit like a fellow who leaves his wife and kids to shack up with his mistress. When he's later asked what's to be done about taking care of the family he's walking away from, his solution is that the ex-wife and kids should live together with him and the mistress.

"Don't worry, kids. It's not me that's looking to break up the family. If your mother chooses for us to live apart, well, that's her call, not mine. There's no reason why we can't all live together as one big happy family under the one roof."

In reality, the chancer that would put forward such an argument to try and manipulate his kids knows full well that his original decision to leave is what is necessitating the changes.

Funny that you should use such an analogy about brexiteerism. Following Boris Johnson's victory, very much a microcosmic example of traitorous private/public life pantomime, it is no wonder the UK is headed for disaster, Sun/Mirror style.

FrancieBrady · 01-08-2019 07:13PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Did Jack Lynch abandon the north ? What would have happened had he sent the Irish army over the border into the north at that time ? It wouldn't have been a good outcome.

As well as having a plan to re-partition the north into Catholic and Protestant enclaves the Heath government papers show that they also had plans to sanction the Dublin government if they didn't play along.

These included identity cards and work permits for the Irish in Britain and freezing Ireland's sterling balances and exchange controls.

Lynch backed down, of that there is no doubt.

Will they try it again? No, because they don't have that power any more.

As good an example of how far Ireland has come in a few years because of our membership of the EU as you will get.

Laois_Man · 01-08-2019 07:19PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I am more pesimistic, if Johnson calls an election I think he will win and I think the momentum to a no-deal Brexit will be too hard to break at this point. There is massive, even if not majority, support for no-deal in the UK at this point, and it seems to be far more motivated than those who should be putting a stop to it.

We will have a no-deal crash and a Johnson lead government trying to lead Britain through a disasterous Brexit with the "Blitz Spirit". A much damaged UK will emerge in a few years time having been forced to pick up the peices and only then will a moderate leadership emerge to do a reasonable deal.

The HoC reconvene's on Sept 3rd

Even if a no confidence motion is tabled on day 1, is debated on and voted on and passes before the end of that week, and given the 2-week lag before Parliament is dissolved, plus the 25 day minimum campaign timeline, it means it would be the week of October 14th at the earliest before there would be a general election - realistically, the week of October 21st.

There wouldn't be a new government formed and the Queen's speech out of the way in time for October 31st.

Also, Tory+Brexit does not have a polling lead over labour + Lib Dems + either SNP or Greens

01-08-2019 07:23PM

By election today and the Tories are expected to lose, which will give Conservatives (& Unionists) a majority of -1.
How does he plan to win anything with a negative majority.

Enzokk · 01-08-2019 07:24PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

The HoC reconvene's on Sept 3rd

Even if a no confidence motion is tabled on day 1, is debated on and voted on and passes before the end of that week, and given the 2-week lag before Parliament is dissolved, plus the 25 day minimum campaign timeline, it means it would be the week of October 14th at the earliest before there would be a general election - realistically, the week of October 21st.

There wouldn't be a new government formed and the Queen's speech out of the way in time for October 31st.

Also, Tory+Brexit does not have a polling lead over labour + Lib Dems + either SNP or Greens

I was about to link this tweet that sets out just about the timetable you have as well.

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1154780737301819395?s=20

He has the earliest time for an election for the week of the 28th October.

You suspect that if Labour would campaign on a second referendum and remaining and they were to be in power the EU would offer an extension for this to happen. If the Tories win on no-deal then no offer for an extension would be forthcoming.

BobbyBobberson · 01-08-2019 07:24PM

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1156989930477953025

Leaked document from Whitehall. Nothign new in there really is there? Everyone knew these were the possibilities.

Water John · 01-08-2019 07:25PM

Really hard to read a GE result with FPTP. A minority vote for one party can far outweigh the combined vote for a number of other parties.
With Johnson running ATM, Brexit Party will get nothing, so it's the Tories versus the Others.

Lb could demand an Ext in return for supporting the calling of a GE. Johnson could blame LB for not leaving on Oct 31st. His campaign strategy laid out for him.

Laois_Man · 01-08-2019 07:29PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I was about to link this tweet that sets out just about the timetable you have as well.

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1154780737301819395?s=20

He has the earliest time for an election for the week of the 28th October.

You suspect that if Labour would campaign on a second referendum and remaining and they were to be in power the EU would offer an extension for this to happen. If the Tories win on no-deal then no offer for an extension would be forthcoming.

If the election happened as outlined, or even a week earlier, Boris Johnson would still be acting PM on Oct 31 regardless of the election results. Is he going to request an extension? I doubt it! Especially if the election result means he's about to lose power.

Leroy42 · 01-08-2019 07:35PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The border is a red herring, used cynically as a negotiating ploy etc etc etc. One could reasonably ask to what end? Are they saying that the EU really want a No deal and are using the border to scupper the deal? Or is it the whole trapping them in the EU nonsense again?

I ask into an empty vaccuum because there is no real answer and for their rabble rousing purposes there doesnt need to be.

Aerlene Foster was out yesterday claiming that the whole plan was to break up the union. Those dastardly EU's boffins, unelected of course, somehow created the UKIP and the ERG to force poor old Cameron into a referendum, which despite telling him was a terrible idea secretly wanted the UK to Brexit and then arranged for nobody in the UK to actually have a plan and even what they wanted.

They then enginereed TM to submit notice of A50, which I assume they somehow tricked her into doing also then convinced Davis to agree to their timetable and furthermore then made sure that TM called a GE and ran one of, if not the most, inept campaigns in democratic history to ensure that the DUP would have the balance of power.

Of course before all of that they rigged the labour party system to allow 1 member 1 vote so that JC could get in and ensure that Labour were almost unelectable.

I'll tell you what, if the EU really are behind all that and the plan has been to break up the UK all this time, then the UK have been strung like like a kipper and it only leads to the idea that sticking with such a devious and clearly genius organisation is the way to go.

Sam Russell · 01-08-2019 07:38PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

If the election happened as outlined, or even a week earlier, Boris Johnson would still be acting PM on Oct 31 regardless of the election results. Is he going to request an extension? I doubt it! Especially if the election result means he's about to lose power.

If the result is clear by Friday night, he is gone on Saturday - not like here.

Laois_Man · 01-08-2019 07:49PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the result is clear by Friday night, he is gone on Saturday - not like here.

The result is only clear that he is gone if Labour has a majority

Not in your nelly will they get one!

Capt'n Midnight · 01-08-2019 07:51PM

20silkcut wrote: »

There was a feasibility study done on this at the time and the conclusion was the Irish army would have held the town of newry for about 24 hours. Utterly futile.

If we had invaded a NATO country then thanks to treaties we'd be up against a couple of nuclear powers and the armed forces of the US, Canada and most of Western Europe apart from France. And Turkey who have one of the world's largest armies. And all of them at peak cold war strength. And us a non-industrial country economically dependant on the UK where 74% of our exports went in 1960.

There's no way we could afford to feed that many prisoners

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/operation-armageddon-would-have-been-doomsday-for-irish-aggressors-1.728983

MrMusician18 · 01-08-2019 07:52PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the result is clear by Friday night, he is gone on Saturday - not like here.

Unless a coalition (likely) needs to be formed

Sam Russell · 01-08-2019 07:55PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

The result is only clear that he is gone if Labour has a majority

Not in your nelly will they get one!

No - if the Labour Party are the largest party, then he is gone if it is clear he cannot form a Gov. For example, if LibDems plus Labour can get a majority, they can form a Gov, he is gone.

Laois_Man · 01-08-2019 07:59PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

No - if the Labour Party are the largest party, then he is gone if it is clear he cannot form a Gov. For example, if LibDems plus Labour can get a majority, they can form a Gov, he is gone.

They don’t form a government until they agree to. The Queen cannot invite Corbyn to become PM until she knows he will command a majority in the HoC

Stop moaning ffs · 01-08-2019 08:00PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Referenda do not have to be and will not be on the same day. It makes no sense for them to be.

The north will vote.
The south will then vote if needed.
If the north vote to reunify you're not gonna get a negative vote in the south. No chance.

That would be Jack Lynch level of abandonment.

As far as I know a border poll like the GFA referendum would be held simultaneously. It wouldn’t work at all in fact it would affect the outcome if either were held after the other.

Fairly sure it’s in the GFA they’ll be held same day simultaneously

FrancieBrady · 01-08-2019 08:04PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

As far as I know a border poll like the GFA referendum would be held simultaneously. It wouldn’t work at all in fact it would affect the outcome if either were held after the other.

Fairly sure it’s in the GFA they’ll be held same day simultaneously

It stands to reason if you think about it that they have to be simultaneous. If the north votes No, the southern one becomes academic and pointless.
It will be 'same day' as the GFA referendums were.

Capt'n Midnight · 01-08-2019 08:05PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1156989930477953025

Leaked document from Whitehall. Nothign new in there really is there? Everyone knew these were the possibilities.

Bank of England cuts UK growth forecast

The Bank's boffins have had to continue to assume that there will be a smooth Brexit, as that, officially, is the government's policy.

The Bank did not choose to outline the detailed implications of a no-deal Brexit.

So even with officially prescribed rose tinted glasses things the UK economy is sliding. 1.3% growth this year and next year , IF there's a deal.

UK annual population growth is 0.6%, so that leaves per capita growth of 0.7%. Inflation is 2%.

Mr Micawber's famous, and oft-quoted, recipe for happiness:
"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen [pounds] nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."
- Charles Dickens.

Britain has a 33% probability of falling into recession by the end of the first quarter of 2020 even if a Brexit deal is reached, the bank said, because of the impact from heightened uncertainty.

Stop moaning ffs · 01-08-2019 08:06PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1156989930477953025

Leaked document from Whitehall. Nothign new in there really is there? Everyone knew these were the possibilities.

What’s ‘kingfisher’?

Bottom right /last panel

Strazdas · 01-08-2019 08:13PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

What’s ‘kingfisher’?

Bottom right /last panel

A secret bailout fund apparently (it's in one of the replies underneath)

Joe_ Public · 01-08-2019 08:13PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

What’s ‘kingfisher’?

Bottom right /last panel

Think thats Hammonds emergency fund, the 27 billion Johnson was using to justify all his spending pledges during the leadership campaign. Or whatever the amount is.

Spanish Eyes · 01-08-2019 08:19PM

There may be trouble ahead,

But while there's a Government here who will speak for us all is good.

Feck the anti Irish propaganda from the usual suspects across the pond now please. It is the last sting of a dying wasp IMO. But what do I know.

Brexit was nothing to do with us, we will preserve our place in the EU. With EU assistance. hopefully

BonnieSituation · 01-08-2019 08:19PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Did Jack Lynch abandon the north ? What would have happened had he sent the Irish army over the border into the north at that time ? It wouldn't have been a good outcome.

Ah now. You are resorting to the notion that abandonment amounted to not "invading".

Cmon now.

ancapailldorcha · 01-08-2019 08:24PM

Mod: No memes here please. Post deleted.

Capt'n Midnight · 01-08-2019 08:28PM

Limpy wrote: »

Brittish online retail sales will surge and holidays to the UK will also. If the pound stays weak that is.

On the other hand UK exports to places like Africa haven't gone up in real terms when you consider the drop in Sterling.

The biggest change is that UK workers have had their pay packet devalued.

Tourism to the UK is down 8%, here its down 4% but that's after a record year. The drop in Sterling just isn't translating into extra visits.
https://www.visitbritain.org/latest-monthly-data-1

Water John · 01-08-2019 08:33PM

One would suspect people might feel they wouldn't be welcome. It's all about perception.

BobbyBobberson · 01-08-2019 08:36PM

Water John wrote: »

One would suspect people might feel they wouldn't be welcome. It's all about perception.

Would seem to be mirrored elsewhere.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/travel/tourism-u-s-down-trump-took-office-costing-4-6-n840326

Capt'n Midnight · 01-08-2019 08:40PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Interesting idea.
This £2 billion no deal brexit fund they’ve just pulled out from the back of the sofa is more about election promises than it is preparedness for brexit.

It's only £1.1Bn the rest is only "if needed"

trellheim wrote: »

Any time someone posts about 500 million for some Brexit thing, someone comes along on twitter and points out its just money already allocated being called Brexit money. There's been no budget to vote through more cash yet

I'm still trying to find the EXACT words Boris used about the 20,000 "new" police officers because that's the same number of new police officers needed to maintain existing headcount.

I am loosing faith in UK investigative reporting.

54and56 · 01-08-2019 09:51PM

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Ok guys, excellent thread, and I only occasionally dip in and out.

From what I am hearing, it would seem that the most likely upcoming scenario (most likely but not a cert) we are facing could be a border in the Irish sea.

I would assume this would be the best possible scenario we could hope for? And in layman's terms, how "bad" would this be for us in the long run, if at all?

Thanks in advance.

I don't disagree and think this may well be why Britain Trump is keeping the Deeee Youuuu Peeeee so close initially and why the new UK govt are steadfastly referring to the backstop as the "undemocratic" backstop so at the opportune moment they can offer NI a vote on whether to keep (and democratise) the backstop and thus put a border down the Irish sea or reject the backstop and leave on no deal with the rest of the UK.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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