Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

1…222223225227228…330

Comments

  • #6722
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,977 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    If Sterling keeps going the way it has in recent days , the bill is getting cheaper for them if nothing else..


    Fully expect this logic to start being used by them in the next day or two


  • #6723
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,191 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    If Sterling keeps going the way it has in recent days , the bill is getting cheaper for them if nothing else..


    Getting more expensive I would have thought.

    The commitments would presumably be in Euro, and as the pound is becoming weaker against the Euro, less bang for the buck.


  • #6724
    Robert McGrath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 438 ✭✭Robert McGrath


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    Getting more expensive I would have thought.

    Only if the amount is fixed in € rather than GBP - that was actually why I asked the question. Google doesn’t give a straightforward answer


  • #6725
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    If Sterling keeps going the way it has in recent days , the bill is getting cheaper for them if nothing else..

    What is farcical about Sterling tumbling is that the main concern across the media is that holidays will be a little more expensive. Deckchairs, Titanic.


  • #6726
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,895 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Robert McGrath wrote: »
    Only if the amount is fixed in € rather than GBP - that was actually why I asked the question. Google doesn’t give a straightforward answer

    I tried looking as well. If I were involved on the EU's side, I'd be insisting on Euros.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Advertisement
  • #6727
    seraphimvc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,358 ✭✭✭seraphimvc


    i come here to ask did anyone watch that John Oliver's video on Boris Johnson? That is a good video damn. I am not a fan of John Oliver but the video caught my attention when my mates in london ask me to if i could watch it on youtube - apparently the video is banned/not accessible in England.
    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    What's gone nearly completely uncommented on is the terrifying precedent the referendum sets.

    Let's assume that the whole thing was played out fairly, ie there were no malign foreign influences involved. Ok. Now what we're left with is the fact that the government tried to address a split in its party by kicking the issue to the electorate who then proceeded to kick it right back.

    There was a legitimate reason to hold the 1975 referendum though it was called for the same reason, to allay the growing schism in the Labour party. However, both parties supported EEC membership and the decision to call a referendum was not made lightly.

    The concern now is that future governments will kick complicated issues to the electorate in order to protect themselves. The country is divided and I'm a tad worried that any future government with a tiny majority might be tempted to use this option.

    The brexit referendum produced the least democratic outcome if you look at it now in 2019. Literally 49% of the population need to obey the will of 51% of the other population. This is not how democracy works - public referendum can never be fair (not like this anyway).

    We are in the era of populism and if thats what the people want then so be it.


  • #6728
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,977 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    What is farcical about Sterling tumbling is that the main concern across the media is that holidays will be a little more expensive. Deckchairs, Titanic.


    TBH its probably the only way for the average brit to in anyway understand why its a bad thing, especially due to the time of year. Just telling them imports will be more expensive simply wont register with them as they seem unable and in some cases refuse to connect the dots when things are explained to them due to how unengaged they insist on being with anything outside their little englander bubble


  • #6729
    Ultimate Seduction
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,464 ✭✭✭Ultimate Seduction


    Funny reading this thread and on Twitter.

    The same people who say brexit will be devastating for Ireland, are praying and hoping that it's a hard brexit with terrible consequences.


  • #6730
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,130 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    If Sterling keeps going the way it has in recent days , the bill is getting cheaper for them if nothing else..

    It won't. It's denominated in euro.

    The UK loans to Ireland were dominated in Sterling so those are getting cheaper for us.


  • #6731
    Robert McGrath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 438 ✭✭Robert McGrath


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    It won't. It's denominated in euro.

    The UK loans to Ireland were dominated in Sterling so those are getting cheaper for us.

    The ones that they wouldn’t allow us to repay early? When GBP was stronger against the €? The irony ...


  • Advertisement
  • #6732
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,695 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    The odd thing is that the same is true for brexiters, they believe a hard Brexit will be devastating for Ireland but relatively benign for the UK.

    Truth is the consequences will mean deep recessions in both countries, especially with global growth slowing and the business cycle ending.

    A recession we have a route out of by virtue of being in the EU. The UK could labour for decades if it survives as a union at all.


  • #6733
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,130 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Robert McGrath wrote: »
    The ones that they wouldn’t allow us to repay early? When GBP was stronger against the €? The irony ...

    Indeed.

    Another interesting fact about those loans was that if Ireland exits the EU during the term, it is considered to be in default even making the payments


  • #6734
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,191 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    So, in the last hour, the leader of FF, FG and SF have all stated that nothing has changed. WA not being renegotiated, Backstop not being removed. Over to you, Boris.


  • #6735
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,587 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    From what I've been reading we are in a much better position financially with a hard Brexit than with a soft one.
    Apparently we'll get lots of help and funding from the EU in the case of a hard Brexit but we have to suffer the consequences of their withdrawal if a deal is struck between the UK and EU.
    Is this true?


  • #6736
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,977 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    So, in the last hour, the leader of FF, FG and SF have all stated that nothing has changed. WA not being renegotiated, Backstop not being removed. Over to you, Boris.


    Delighted common sense has overcome oppurtunism for once, wonder what they will try next


  • #6737
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,895 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    eagle eye wrote: »
    From what I've been reading we are in a much better position financially with a hard Brexit than with a soft one.
    Apparently we'll get lots of help and funding from the EU in the case of a hard Brexit but we have to suffer the consequences of their withdrawal if a deal is struck between the UK and EU.
    Is this true?

    That makes no sense to me. Soft or no Brexit means that the UK stays within the Single Market and Customs Union meaning no hard border and trade remains as it was without the Brexit Party trolling the European Parliament.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #6738
    Igotadose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,682 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    eagle eye wrote: »
    From what I've been reading we are in a much better position financially with a hard Brexit than with a soft one.
    Apparently we'll get lots of help and funding from the EU in the case of a hard Brexit but we have to suffer the consequences of their withdrawal if a deal is struck between the UK and EU.
    Is this true?

    No, you misunderstand what's on offing should there be a hard Brexit.

    But, I think you knew that, and are trolling. Have a nice day.


  • #6739
    54and56
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,861 ✭✭✭54and56


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    If Sterling keeps going the way it has in recent days , the bill is getting cheaper for them if nothing else..

    Nope, quite the opposite. They owe what they owe in Euro's, they have just been expressing it to their local UK audience in Sterling.

    £39b buys a lot less € today than it did a few weeks ago so it's going to cost them more £ to pay the € bill that's waiting for them.


  • #6740
    54and56
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,861 ✭✭✭54and56


    Robert McGrath wrote: »
    Only if the amount is fixed in € rather than GBP - that was actually why I asked the question. Google doesn’t give a straightforward answer

    I expect commitments to the EU are denominated in Euro's but I guess it's possible the UK contributions would have been agreed in Sterling and as a consequence their ultimate WA divorce bill could be in Sterling. If it is it doesn't get any cheaper for them, they still owe the same amount of Sterling but on receipt that amount of Sterling won't go as far as it would have prior to the recent slide in Sterling value.


  • #6741
    nc6000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭nc6000


    FrancieBrady wrote:
    It was £39 billion but has been revised down after negotiations to £33 Billion or €36 billion.

    It's interesting that any of the no deal or hard Brexit advocates are all still referring to the £39 billion. None of them seem to refer to the revised lower figure.


  • Advertisement
  • #6742
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,695 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    nc6000 wrote: »
    It's interesting that any of the no deal or hard Brexit advocates are all still referring to the £39 billion. None of them seem to refer to the revised lower figure.

    Like the cost of a UI, it is important to keep these figures as high as possible. Scare value.


  • #6743
    brickster69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,278 ✭✭✭brickster69


    eagle eye wrote: »
    From what I've been reading we are in a much better position financially with a hard Brexit than with a soft one.
    Apparently we'll get lots of help and funding from the EU in the case of a hard Brexit but we have to suffer the consequences of their withdrawal if a deal is struck between the UK and EU.
    Is this true?

    Not really true. Most countries would be quite badly hit in the event of a hard Brexit. You would imagine that these countries would require support also.

    Here is Belgium's impact report.

    https://www.fdfa.be/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Brexit%20impact%20study%202019.pdf

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #6744
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,695 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    brickster69 wrote: »
    Not really true. Most countries would be quite badly hit in the event of a hard Brexit. You would imagine that these countries would require support also.

    Here is Belgium's impact report.

    https://www.fdfa.be/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Brexit%20impact%20study%202019.pdf

    Boggles the mind that the UK thinks it can exit with No Deal and then think they will get a favourable deal off those they just caused a lot of hardship and grief to.


  • #6745
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,375 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    54&56 wrote: »
    Nope, quite the opposite. They owe what they owe in Euro's, they have just been expressing it to their local UK audience in Sterling.

    £39b buys a lot less € today than it did a few weeks ago so it's going to cost them more £ to pay the € bill that's waiting for them.

    I do not think that is right.

    All that is decided in the WA is the methodology of calculating the amount due for the net liabilities owed by the UK. In 2018, the UK contribution was 11.88% of the EU budget, and one would assume that is the level that would be the basis of the calculation.

    The amount due can only be in Euros as that is the only currency that the EU recognises. Before the Euro, the EEC, EC and EU dealt in ECUs, which translate to be equivalent to the current Euro - they just had not invented the name then.

    If the GBP falls in value (or rises), it does not affect the number of Euros due.

    The UK owes less now because they will have been in the EU for seven extra months of the budget cycle which ends in Dec 2020, not for any other reason.


  • #6746
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,895 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Boggles the mind that the UK thinks it can exit with No Deal and then think they will get a favourable deal off those they just caused a lot of hardship and grief to.

    The Withdrawal Agreement already gives the UK privileged access to the single market and customs union that other third countries don't get. Once they leave, if they leave then they're on the same playing field as Canada, Japan and everyone else who had to negotiate with the EU for a trade deal and they'll be on WTO terms while they wait.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #6747
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 43,021 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Apparently we'll get lots of help and funding from the EU in the case of a hard Brexit but we have to suffer the consequences of their withdrawal if a deal is struck between the UK and EU.
    Is this true?
    It is true but the only deal that will be struck between the UK and the EU is the WA.
    The EU ***WILL NOT*** shaft Ireland. If they did then the EU is over.


  • #6748
    Dymo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭Dymo


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    What is farcical about Sterling tumbling is that the main concern across the media is that holidays will be a little more expensive. Deckchairs, Titanic.

    That makes sense, until Joe Public is affected with Brexit they will believe everything said by Boris & co and have no reason to doubt them.
    Originally Posted by FrancieBrady
    It was £39 billion but has been revised down after negotiations to £33 Billion or €36 billion.

    Maybe I read it wrong somewhere, but isn't the lower figure (£33 Billion) because the UK haven't left yet and have been making payments all the time which has been reducing the burden they owed?


  • #6749
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Tell me how wrote: »
    That's why I've a lot of time for Micheal Martin.

    He could have stirred the pot a lot more over the last 18 months but has recognized the best interests of the country in terms of Brexit necessitated avoiding a GE.

    That will change but it's been in stark contrast to the shadow PM's behavior in the UK.

    Timmy had some sort of a brain freeze moment this morning.

    Absolute bull****!

    Martin has been delaying pulling the rug and causing an election until the polls tell him he has a chance of winning!


  • #6750
    BobbyBobberson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    Dymo wrote: »
    That makes sense, until Joe Public is affected with Brexit they will believe everything said by Boris & co and have no reason to doubt them.



    Maybe I read it wrong somewhere, but isn't the lower figure (£33 Billion) because the UK haven't left yet and have been making payments all the time which has been reducing the burden they owed?

    From the economics editor of the FT

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1154053316533350403


  • Advertisement
  • #6751
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,169 ✭✭✭trellheim


    I'm in USA cant access Paddy Power - blocked

    What are they quoting for no-deal odds at the moment ?


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement