Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

brickster69 · 28-07-2019 10:42PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’m going into a betting shop for the first time In my life tomorrow.
Can you with your considerable foresight let me know exactly what day or moment the Eu are going to ‘blink’ and this isolation of Ireland happens?

They won't blink, they can't whatever the consequences. Shame about the citizens like but there you go.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 10:43PM

brickster69 wrote: »

They won't blink, they can't whatever the consequences. Shame about the citizens like but there you go.

Not even sure what that means but hello anyways.

Water John · 28-07-2019 10:44PM

Well Johnson plan wipes out the Tories in Scotland. It's a dozen seats down then at the start of a GE.

Headshot · 28-07-2019 10:47PM

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Ruth Davidson sticking it to Boris by telling him she will not support no-deal Brexit.

Davidson is hugely popular and I doubt this is going down well in the Boris camp. Double trouble waiting for him when he visits Scotland next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/28/support-no-deal-brexit-scottish-ruth-davidson-boris-johnson

She hates Boris as well so I suspect Boris as PM will go down like a lead ballon in Scotland where the Tories will lose their seats

54and56 · 28-07-2019 10:49PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I think you underestimate the financial markets.

I think you overestimate the London based financial markets.

Capital and talent are highly mobile.

Fragmentation of The City around EU capitals would be a no deal dividend for the EU.

brickster69 · 28-07-2019 10:50PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Not even sure what that means but hello anyways.

It means the EU will not blink regardless of what the outcome will be.

Strazdas · 28-07-2019 10:50PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I think you underestimate the financial markets.

Even if No Deal was causing all sorts of problems, the Single Market would still be operating as normal with all borders open between the 27 states.

The one exception would be the UK which would have no trade deal with any SM country and would be at serious risk of ports and airports having to close.

Water John · 28-07-2019 10:54PM

Whilst the ports issues kick in immediately, a lot of others seem to come to a crunch at the end of the year, in the event of a No Deal.
One country that certainly won't be accommodating, is France.

lawred2 · 28-07-2019 10:55PM

It's incredulous that someone could be so wrong about something so freely in the public domain.

90% of our exports go to the UK!?

Where was that sourced from? Some Victorian journal?

Idiotic

Water John · 28-07-2019 10:59PM

It shows when you start telling porkies, stay away from stats and figures, instead use generalisations. Haven't fully got the Trump messaging right, yet.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 10:59PM

brickster69 wrote: »

It means the EU will not blink regardless of what the outcome will be.

Oh that’s a certainty. Sorry I understand your post now.
They never were going to and won’t.
When will boris and co realise?

Everyone else has.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 11:02PM

lawred2 wrote: »

It's incredulous that someone could be so wrong about something so freely in the public domain.

90% of our exports go to the UK!?

Where was that sourced from? Some Victorian journal?

Idiotic

He’s getting torn apart in the replies with facts.
He’ll never see the replies though. It’s a propaganda account.

brickster69 · 28-07-2019 11:05PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Even if No Deal was causing all sorts of problems, the Single Market would still be operating as normal with all borders open between the 27 states.

The one exception would be the UK which would have no trade deal with any SM country and would be at serious risk of ports and airports having to close.

Why would ports and airports have to close ?

brickster69 · 28-07-2019 11:14PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Oh that’s a certainty. Sorry I understand your post now.
They never were going to and won’t.
When will boris and co realise?

Everyone else has.

They do. That's why the UK will leave the EU in a couple of months. If both parties try to limit the damage to either side in the meantime all well and good. If not life goes on.

McGiver · 28-07-2019 11:25PM

fash wrote:

Although the EU dislikes the precise Switzerland solution based on the complexity of loads of agreements which are constantly being tinkered with, the real reason why the Switzerland solution is not acceptable is the UK red lines:

There are only "10" treaties replicating the EEA treaty. So it's not so bad, but still easier to have one EEA treaty than 10, of course.

fash wrote:

Specifically the UK's refusal to accept freedom of movement, refusal of ongoing financial support of the single market and refusal to submit to ECJ jurisdiction. I strongly suspect that the UK is big enough and important enough that (subject to having a backstop), the EU would love to give the UK such a deal.

Yep. It would possible.
BTW ECJ has no jurisdiction in Switzerland. ECJ has also no jurisdiction in the other EFTA countries, EFTA Court settles disputes instead.

It boils down the free movement UK red line. And then general unwillingness to be part of any sort of supranational body wherein UK doesn't have a final say. Guess the WTO with upto 140 countries to object UK's actions will be a rather rude awakening.

Strazdas · 28-07-2019 11:29PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Why would ports and airports have to close ?

You can only import and export goods with the right documentation and a No Deal would mean the instant introduction of tariffs. As of midnight on the night of leaving, UK importers and exporters would need reams of documents to accompany the goods and all produce would have to be inspected by customs officials. This would cause massive delays and tailbacks at the ports and could well close the ports completely.

Professor Moriarty · 28-07-2019 11:35PM

Strazdas wrote: »

You can only import and export goods with the right documentation and a No Deal would mean the instant introduction of tariffs. As of midnight on the night of leaving, UK importers and exporters would need reams of documents to accompany the goods and all produce would have to be inspected by customs officials. This would cause massive delays and tailbacks at the ports and could well close the ports completely.

In fact, if they crash out, on November 1st the UK will be the only country in the world trading solely on WTO terms.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-07-2019 11:42PM

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

brickster69 · 28-07-2019 11:48PM

Strazdas wrote: »

You can only import and export goods with the right documentation and a No Deal would mean the instant introduction of tariffs. As of midnight on the night of leaving, UK importers and exporters would need reams of documents to accompany the goods and all produce would have to be inspected by customs officials. This would cause massive delays and tailbacks at the ports and could well close the ports completely.

What would it do to Calais in that situation considering the UK imports more than it exports. I don't think you understand how global trade works to be honest.

If you think that a container ship coming from China for example, suddenly gets inspected by hundreds of inspectors going through boxes and boxes of goods checking paperwork for compliance you live in another world.

Less than 3% of goods entering the EU get physically checked. Huge ramifications if one nations goods are singled out as opposed to others under WTO regs.

The WTO's job is to ensure the free flow of trade between nations.

Professor Moriarty · 28-07-2019 11:56PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

The Telegraph isn't a newspaper. It's a mouthpiece for the Tory party. So this 'opinion' isn't opinion at all. It's what the Tory spin doctors told Timothy to write and he dutifully writes it. It suits the Tories to create a narrative where Ireland is the problem because it means the Tories aren't the problem. So The Telegraph creates the narrative.

A Dub in Glasgo · 28-07-2019 11:56PM

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Ruth Davidson sticking it to Boris by telling him she will not support no-deal Brexit.

Davidson is hugely popular and I doubt this is going down well in the Boris camp. Double trouble waiting for him when he visits Scotland next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/28/support-no-deal-brexit-scottish-ruth-davidson-boris-johnson

She is not hugely popular and has lost every election in Scotland. She is a media construct who flip flops over the issues and has sniffed out the knuckle dragging loyalist support in Scotland

Enzokk · 29-07-2019 12:00AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

That is from Nick Timothy, who we should not forget is the reason why the Conservatives needs the DUP to get anything through parliament. Here is a couple of paragraphs, in relation to Leo Varadkar.

Instead, he gambled, and exhorted the EU to take the hardest line possible. Before the UK and EU could negotiate their future relationship, he insisted, the border question must be decided. Never mind that this was nonsensical and everybody knew the border could only be fixed in a future trade agreement.

And then later he blames May as well,

Books will be written about why Britain allowed Ireland and the EU to abuse the peace process in this way. My judgment is that Theresa May liked and wanted the backstop. She believed she had succeeded in splitting the EU’s fabled “four freedoms” – of goods, services, capital and people – by remaining in a customs territory with the EU while allowing Britain to control immigration. But this misunderstood the meaning of Brexit.

The purpose of the piece is just to pamper Johnson's ego though,

Under Theresa May, the UK almost succumbed. But now Boris Johnson is holding firm. When he visits Northern Ireland this week he should not be shy in pointing out who is risking a no-deal outcome and a hard border in Ireland. It is not the United Kingdom, but Leo Varadkar.

The backstop is supposed to stop a hard border, but by making the Withdrawal Agreement unratifiable, it is making no-deal and a hard border more likely. There can only be one solution: the backstop must go.

Really it is just more of the same. It is Ireland's fault for not giving the UK the deal they want to have frictionless trade with the EU but to be aligned with EU rules and regulations. The EU has used the GFA to ensure this happens and Leo Varadkar is the tool being used.

There is no blame on the UK, for leaving the EU and expecting the same benefits, or not having a plan.

Strazdas · 29-07-2019 12:07AM

Enzokk wrote: »

That is from Nick Timothy, who we should not forget is the reason why the Conservatives needs the DUP to get anything through parliament. Here is a couple of paragraphs, in relation to Leo Varadkar.

Instead, he gambled, and exhorted the EU to take the hardest line possible. Before the UK and EU could negotiate their future relationship, he insisted, the border question must be decided. Never mind that this was nonsensical and everybody knew the border could only be fixed in a future trade agreement.

Downright lies from this spiv. Sir Ivan Rogers confirmed recently that it was Enda Kenny in January 2017 who toughened up Ireland's position on the border, not Varadkar.

Professor Moriarty · 29-07-2019 12:08AM

Enzokk wrote: »

That is from Nick Timothy, who we should not forget is the reason why the Conservatives needs the DUP to get anything through parliament. Here is a couple of paragraphs, in relation to Leo Varadkar.

And then later he blames May as well,

The purpose of the piece is just to pamper Johnson's ego though,

Really it is just more of the same. It is Ireland's fault for not giving the UK the deal they want to have frictionless trade with the EU but to be aligned with EU rules and regulations. The EU has used the GFA to ensure this happens and Leo Varadkar is the tool being used.

There is no blame on the UK, for leaving the EU and expecting the same benefits, or not having a plan.

When Johnson visits Belfast on his whistle stop tour, I wonder if he'll mention that Northern Ireland will suffer more than Great Britain and Ireland in the event of a no deal exit and that 40,000+ jobs are likely to go. Probably.

BobbyBobberson · 29-07-2019 12:12AM

Fair play to Nick Timothy. Imagine absolutely shagging your bosses open goal at an election, getting sacked, being ridiculed and still thinking you have all the answers. You have to admire that lack of self awareness. Ignorance is bliss.

Just watching the two part Brexit:Behind Closed Doors on BBC catch up. What a great insight.

reslfj · 29-07-2019 12:15AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Certainly, the original post claimed that the EU could bring UK airports to a halt, I was pointing out that every plane flying in and out of your country has to pass through a UK FIR. If the EU tried to damage Britain then Ireland could also suffer, as would the EU..

The use of threats is ridiculous, either side could cripple the other.

Convention on International Civil Aviation of 1944, known as the Chicago Convention allows all parties the first two freedoms of the air -

The right to fly over a foreign country without landing
The right to refuel or carry out maintenance in a foreign country without embarking or disembarking passengers or cargo.

But the freedoms 3, 4 landing and takeoff and 5-9 must be agreed bi-/multi-laterally - and this can only happen as a part of a deal with the EU27 (WA required)

The EU27 has announced just before March 29. 2019 that in case of a 'No Deal' Brexit the EU27 planned unilaterally to accept freedoms 3 and 4 for UK planes until April 2020 (direct flights UK <-> EU27) and accept security EASA safety certificates for UK planes until the end of 2019.

The EU has also said it would allow (on Brexit day) existing flight schedules to continue for a few months to avoid total chaos in flight reservations.

Short: The UK has no leverage whatsoever over EU27 flights.

Lars

%
Freedoms of the air:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedoms_of_the_air

Countries:
https://www.icao.int/secretariat/legal/List%20of%20Parties/Chicago_EN.pdf

J Mysterio · 29-07-2019 12:16AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

May's former Guru, Nick Timothy. That is a horrendously twisted piece and an obvious incitement.

UK seems to be full of these nasty little schemer's at the moment. Shame he wasnt smart enough to not call a GE at such an inopportune time, and then fail hard in the campaign before being forced to resign.

Strazdas · 29-07-2019 01:12AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

May's former Guru, Nick Timothy. That is a horrendously twisted piece and an obvious incitement.

UK seems to be full of these nasty little schemer's at the moment. Shame he wasnt smart enough to not call a GE at such an inopportune time, and then fail hard in the campaign before being forced to resign.

There's going to be tons more of this garbage for weeks to come. Ireland should not get involved in a slanging match though......all of this bile is aimed at winning over the Brexit disciples, it's not really about the Irish at all.

An Claidheamh · 29-07-2019 02:39AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Opinion piece in tomorrow's Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/28/varadkar-can-blame-britain-likes-real-threat-peace/

Some weird mental gymnastics going on.

British Brexiters are so bankrupt of ideas that they just being childish with the Good Friday Agreement, such a whiff of desperation.

Jeepers, ended up reading the comments below.

Same old British stuff, a very sad group of people :

"Why can't them Éire join our commonwealth"

"Ireland caused their border, wanting their country back innit"

"up until now we were best friends....." (except for.... everything up to now)

(following Anti-Irish nonsense, patronising stuff, delusions...)"why them Paddies not like us, they are in the EU just to attack us"

"Varadkar is a foreigner, Ireland can't be listening to foreigners (sic except British ones)"

"they've overplayed their hand" (3 years now, like a slogan or something )

"EU tax, they need our market, banking loan, the IRA, they will get punished, German cars, etc"

"Moan, moan, moan, moan, moan, Rule Britannia"

It's actually rather transfixing, rather relieved that some of the commenters appreciated we despise them, their empire and aren't their "friends".

Varadkar "is a Republican extremist" that was my favourite.

Peregrinus · 29-07-2019 02:45AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I think you underestimate the financial markets.

What have the financial markets got to do with it? Serious question.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Comments