Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton · 28-07-2019 09:06PM

trellheim wrote: »

This reinforces my view she was put in as a bogeyman .... hats off to Cummings here its a belter of a plan . I can only wait for the isolation of little old Ireland when a reasonable offer from the uk or whatever comes over ... that has to be the plan I cant see any alternative

Why does a reasonable offer from the UK have to involve the isolation of Ireland?

Spanish Eyes · 28-07-2019 09:07PM

Terrible times ahead, and I wish I didn't have to denigrate the UK Government under Johnson. But anyone in Ireland would have to be off the wall to think that there is any hope for us at all now.

Unless...... well give us a clue!

Zubeneschamali · 28-07-2019 09:08PM

brickster69 wrote: »

WTO rules state that checks can be carried out away from frontier.So if EU / IRE insist on checks at the border that is up to them.

If the UK leaves with no deal, they won't be worried about their border in Ireland. Their border with France and the motorway jam leading to it from London will be the issue.

And any deal which makes Dover Calais work will make the border in Ireland invisible again.

Beechwoodspark · 28-07-2019 09:14PM

I’ve read a bit of the Dominic Cummings blog today

As Tim shipman said- he comes across as a very intense man indeed

He’s obsessed with topics like artificial intelligence, the rise of China and how data models should be utilized more in govt. He sees the civil service machine as unfit for purpose.

Very little practical politics.

He goes on rants about how useless politicians and civil servants are regularly though.

Sam Russell · 28-07-2019 09:20PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the UK leaves with no deal, they won't be worried about their border in Ireland. Their border with France and the motorway jam leading to it from London will be the issue.

And any deal which makes Dover Calais work will make the border in Ireland invisible again.

If it gets nasty, which it looks like it will, then Dover might be chaotic, but Heathrow, Gatwick ans Stansted will be at a standstill. The EU can just stop UK aircraft from landing at all EU airports by simply not allowing their proposed moratorium of the forth and fifth freedom rights. That alone will bring air travel to a halt in the UK.

The current proposal is to allow planes to travel to EU airports, but not carry on to a second EU airport. (This is an EU proposal to help the EU - not an agreement with the UK but if things get nasty .... ). They could just not allow UK aircraft to land at any EU airport if a trade war is declared by Johnson - as he is now making noises about.

He has a few big bazookas in his arsenal to silence the DUP, so his insistence that there be no infrastructure in Ireland only requires a border in the Irish sea which is simple to effect. A lot simpler to implement than his other strategies.

beggars_bush · 28-07-2019 09:29PM

Every utterance from the pro Brexit side now has to be checked against actual facts

You cannot trust a word that comes out of their mouths

BobbyBobberson · 28-07-2019 09:31PM

I am after going down a rabbits warren of Brexiteer accounts on Twitter and it is beyond baffling. A mix of baby boomers, retirees (both who have made their money and own their homes) and then working class individuals. All with this bizarre hate for the EU. Do these people lack a cause or an interest in their lives? Does Brexit and hate of the EU fill some type of gap?

I mentioned my uncle here previously being a brexiteer and how he wanted less EU laws and it is just so baffling. What EU law do you think about when you drive in your Audi or sit in Old Trafford ya sweaty bag of shyte. I find the whole mentality so weird.

BobbyBobberson · 28-07-2019 09:31PM

beggars_bush wrote: »

Every utterance from the pro Brexit side now has to be checked against actual facts

You cannot trust a word that comes out of their mouths

Even when proven wrong it does not matter. Check out Lord Digby's tweets today.

ThePanjandrum · 28-07-2019 09:34PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the UK leaves with no deal, they won't be worried about their border in Ireland. Their border with France and the motorway jam leading to it from London will be the issue.

And any deal which makes Dover Calais work will make the border in Ireland invisible again.

So Calais wants to become a ghost town?

Enzokk · 28-07-2019 09:36PM

beggars_bush wrote: »

Every utterance from the pro Brexit side now has to be checked against actual facts

You cannot trust a word that comes out of their mouths

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Even when proven wrong it does not matter. Check out Lord Digby's tweets today.

Here is the tweet in question,

https://twitter.com/Digbylj/status/1155424393700548609?s=20

So we do 90% of our trade with the UK now apparently. And it will just be a matter of time before those German car makers jump in, I know they have said everything to the contrary but just wait until they realize Johnson is serious. Then they will act.

Spanish Eyes · 28-07-2019 09:41PM

August is a dead month for news.

So we then have the Conference Season. What will Jeremy no comment have to say I wonder?

We all know that the Tory Conference will be full of hurrahs and all that.

I'd be looking at Labour, Lib Dems TBH for a decent counterpoint.

Foghladh · 28-07-2019 09:41PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

If it gets nasty, which it looks like it will, then Dover might be chaotic, but Heathrow, Gatwick ans Stansted will be at a standstill. The EU can just stop UK aircraft from landing at all EU airports by simply not allowing their proposed moratorium of the forth and fifth freedom rights. That alone will bring air travel to a halt in the UK.

The current proposal is to allow planes to travel to EU airports, but not carry on to a second EU airport. (This is an EU proposal to help the EU - not an agreement with the UK but if things get nasty .... ). They could just not allow UK aircraft to land at any EU airport if a trade war is declared by Johnson - as he is now making noises about.

He has a few big bazookas in his arsenal to silence the DUP, so his insistence that there be no infrastructure in Ireland only requires a border in the Irish sea which is simple to effect. A lot simpler to implement than his other strategies.

What noises are being made about a trade war? Engaging on WTO terms if necessary?

ThePanjandrum · 28-07-2019 09:44PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

If it gets nasty, which it looks like it will, then Dover might be chaotic, but Heathrow, Gatwick ans Stansted will be at a standstill. The EU can just stop UK aircraft from landing at all EU airports by simply not allowing their proposed moratorium of the forth and fifth freedom rights. That alone will bring air travel to a halt in the UK.

The current proposal is to allow planes to travel to EU airports, but not carry on to a second EU airport. (This is an EU proposal to help the EU - not an agreement with the UK but if things get nasty .... ). They could just not allow UK aircraft to land at any EU airport if a trade war is declared by Johnson - as he is now making noises about.

He has a few big bazookas in his arsenal to silence the DUP, so his insistence that there be no infrastructure in Ireland only requires a border in the Irish sea which is simple to effect. A lot simpler to implement than his other strategies.

Have you ever studied the UK's FIRs?

https://www.nats.aero/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/UKFIRs2-1.png

Strazdas · 28-07-2019 09:44PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I am after going down a rabbits warren of Brexiteer accounts on Twitter and it is beyond baffling. A mix of baby boomers, retirees (both who have made their money and own their homes) and then working class individuals. All with this bizarre hate for the EU. Do these people lack a cause or an interest in their lives? Does Brexit and hate of the EU fill some type of gap?

I mentioned my uncle here previously being a brexiteer and how he wanted less EU laws and it is just so baffling. What EU law do you think about when you drive in your Audi or sit in Old Trafford ya sweaty bag of shyte. I find the whole mentality so weird.

Ivan Yates said the other evening that Brexit now has all the trappings of a religious cult. They've dispensed with facts and logical arguments.....it now comes down to whether you believe in the religion or not (making it impossible to debate such a person or win an argument with them).

Enzokk · 28-07-2019 09:48PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Have you ever studied the UK's FIRs?

https://www.nats.aero/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/UKFIRs2-1.png

I am sorry, what is your point? Your link is a picture so I am not sure what your point is, care to expand?

Professor Moriarty · 28-07-2019 09:54PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

August is a dead month for news.

So we then have the Conference Season. What will Jeremy no comment have to say I wonder?

We all know that the Tory Conference will be full of hurrahs and all that.

I'd be looking at Labour, Lib Dems TBH for a decent counterpoint.

Johnson got a bounce in the polls. The Tories lead Labour 31% to 21%. Under anyone but Corbyn, that would swivel to Labour leading the Tories 34% to 28%. That's how awful Corbyn is as a leader. Apart from the fact that they have a disastrous electoral system that allows loons like the ERG to seize power, the Leader of the Opposition is a waste of space. There is no effective opposition to Johnson et al.

ThePanjandrum · 28-07-2019 09:59PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I am sorry, what is your point? Your link is a picture so I am not sure what your point is, care to expand?

Certainly, the original post claimed that the EU could bring UK airports to a halt, I was pointing out that every plane flying in and out of your country has to pass through a UK FIR. If the EU tried to damage Britain then Ireland could also suffer, as would the EU..

The use of threats is ridiculous, either side could cripple the other.

Spanish Eyes · 28-07-2019 10:02PM

No effective opposition is all down to the Labour Party. They seem happy enough to carry on as they are now.

Why I do not know, maybe Momentum are pulling the strings, but even they should see that having a decent stab at a GE is in Labour's favour with a different leader now? Cannot understand it myself. But someone may educate me.

Strazdas · 28-07-2019 10:04PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Certainly, the original post claimed that the EU could bring UK airports to a halt, I was pointing out that every plane flying in and out of your country has to pass through a UK FIR. If the EU tried to damage Britain then Ireland could also suffer, as would the EU..

The use of threats is ridiculous, either side could cripple the other.

UK at far greater risk in such a scenario. The Single Market would still be functioning as normal : Germany is bordered by nine countries for example (none of whom are the UK)

brickster69 · 28-07-2019 10:07PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the UK leaves with no deal, they won't be worried about their border in Ireland. Their border with France and the motorway jam leading to it from London will be the issue.

And any deal which makes Dover Calais work will make the border in Ireland invisible again.

Sounds like a plan, should be really great for Ireland's exports going to the EU through that jam. Presumably Europe's businesses will also be over the moon with it's goods being blocked going into the UK also.

FrancieBrady · 28-07-2019 10:07PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Certainly, the original post claimed that the EU could bring UK airports to a halt, I was pointing out that every plane flying in and out of your country has to pass through a UK FIR. If the EU tried to damage Britain then Ireland could also suffer, as would the EU..

The use of threats is ridiculous, either side could cripple the other.

They are not 'UK' FIR's, responsibility for them lies with the ICAO.

Nody · 28-07-2019 10:08PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So Calais wants to become a ghost town?

Nice attempt to deflect away from the topic but once again you've misunderstood things. For starters Calais is not at the negotiation table; France is so their wants as a single town don't measure up for much. Secondly; their trade will do fine as the issue is the trucks leaving UK more so than entering and will have greatly improved sales due to the new smuggling opportunities (since UK said they are not going to check any trucks). But hey; want a second try?

Water John · 28-07-2019 10:11PM

Johnson might think he can control the narrative, but he has unleashed a force he has no control over. He certainly isn't going to tell Cummings. Johnson will end up the front of house puppet.

Sam Russell · 28-07-2019 10:12PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Certainly, the original post claimed that the EU could bring UK airports to a halt, I was pointing out that every plane flying in and out of your country has to pass through a UK FIR. If the EU tried to damage Britain then Ireland could also suffer, as would the EU..

The use of threats is ridiculous, either side could cripple the other.

Flying through airspace is OK, it is landing rights that could be denied. The UK could fly to anywhere outside the EU, but could be denied rights within the EU. Rights to land, rights to deliver passengers, rights to pick up passengers, etc. all are subject to current agreements that expire if the UK leaves without a deal.

Then there is certification, licences, insurance, etc.

If it gets nasty, ......

Enzokk · 28-07-2019 10:14PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Certainly, the original post claimed that the EU could bring UK airports to a halt, I was pointing out that every plane flying in and out of your country has to pass through a UK FIR. If the EU tried to damage Britain then Ireland could also suffer, as would the EU..

The use of threats is ridiculous, either side could cripple the other.

The post was not talking about overflying but departing from airports. In any case, as you say, if you get into a fight about overflight rights you wonder how UK airlines will fly anywhere but north. So all their flights to Asia and Africa will be shut. They could still fly to North America, but the flight time will be increased as going west will not be an option.

But that is not what we are talking about as those rights are not up for negotiation. So your post was not on point to what you were replying to. If it was an attempt to deflect I don't think it worked.

An Claidheamh · 28-07-2019 10:17PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is the tweet in question,

https://twitter.com/Digbylj/status/1155424393700548609?s=20

So we do 90% of our trade with the UK now apparently. And it will just be a matter of time before those German car makers jump in, I know they have said everything to the contrary but just wait until they realize Johnson is serious. Then they will act.

Whiff of gammon off him.

Irish trade, Northern France, German cars - Brexiters going around in circles.

Here is some light relief I saw one some headcases twitter :

(He was blaming the Remain side)

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1097007/spain-british-warships-contract-plymouth-portsmouth-gibraltar

ThePanjandrum · 28-07-2019 10:29PM

Strazdas wrote: »

UK at far greater risk in such a scenario. The Single Market would still be functioning as normal : Germany is bordered by nine countries for example (none of whom are the UK)

I think you underestimate the financial markets.

BobbyBobberson · 28-07-2019 10:31PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I think you underestimate the financial markets.

Please enlighten us.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 10:37PM

trellheim wrote: »

Sorry missed the last few pages but Priti Patel is beginning to ramp up the rhetoric on immigration in her Mail on Sunday interview

This reinforces my view she was put in as a bogeyman .... hats off to Cummings here its a belter of a plan . I can only wait for the isolation of little old Ireland when a reasonable offer from the uk or whatever comes over ... that has to be the plan I cant see any alternative

remains to be seen you folks know I'm a cynic but lets see what comes out

I’m going into a betting shop for the first time In my life tomorrow.
Can you with your considerable foresight let me know exactly what day or moment the Eu are going to ‘blink’ and this isolation of Ireland happens? I need a holiday.

Given your frankly ridiculous takes on brexit so far I reckon on balance the clock could possibly agree with your version of time and it’s worth a score.

My dms are open if you don’t want to affect the odds of your safe bet certainty.

Mr.Wemmick · 28-07-2019 10:39PM

Ruth Davidson sticking it to Boris by telling him she will not support no-deal Brexit.

Davidson is hugely popular and I doubt this is going down well in the Boris camp. Double trouble waiting for him when he visits Scotland next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/28/support-no-deal-brexit-scottish-ruth-davidson-boris-johnson

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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