Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

gooch2k9 · 25-07-2019 10:01AM

Swinson has laid down a motion of no confidence. Challenging Corbyn to back it, no prizes for guessing what he'll do.

Leroy42 · 25-07-2019 10:01AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

What would you blame the government for if no deal happens?

If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?

So you think Brexit, and the results of it, are the government's fault?

What would have them do differently?

FreudianSlippers · 25-07-2019 10:02AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?

Global recession looking very likely Q2 2020. Mitigation of loss will be the question of Governmental performance, not the wild concept that the Irish Government can somehow control the planet's economy.

LuckyLloyd · 25-07-2019 10:03AM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The Single Market is more important to Ireland as a nation than a United Ireland will ever be.

As an ardent Republican, I agree with this.

FrancieBrady · 25-07-2019 10:06AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?

Are you in favour of Irexit? Because you don't seem to give Ireland any latitude to do anything else here.

I live on the border and I cannot see a win for Ireland here if we are to protect the Single market which I think it is imperative we play our part in doing.

Currently, I am coming around to the position that we may have to pull on the green jersey (over our EU one) and seal the border as best we can.

It's cuts both ways here if there is no border controlling what is going into the north. Never minding the rest of the UK, the effect of cheaper goods (if things go predictably pear shaped in the UK, then things will be cheaper here) flooding northwards will destroy the already fragile economy of the north.

FreudianSlippers · 25-07-2019 10:07AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Leo has guaranteed no border on the island “full stop” so we are all grand.

For anyone interested in the truth, here's what Varadkar actually said:

"We can’t shift on the issue of there being no hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That is the outcome that we need. We have said it from day one that Brexit cannot result in a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. We have made that commitment to the people of Ireland, north and south. And the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom Government has made that commitment to the people of Ireland, north and south, so it needs to be honoured."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ireland-cannot-shift-on-hard-border-after-brexit-varadkar-1.3759832

[A no-deal Brexit would] “leave us with no guarantee in relation to there not being a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. It would leave us with no protections around citizens’ rights and freedoms and it would have a major impact on jobs and the economy.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/varadkar-confirms-plans-for-hard-brexit-now-being-implemented-1.3760008

FreudianSlippers · 25-07-2019 10:09AM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

As an ardent Republican, I agree with this.

I consider myself a Republican as well, but I've come to realise that we cannot force the UK and/or the people of Northern Ireland to act in their best interest. We shouldn't compromise ourselves to the benefit of a Northern Ireland populous that does not want to be part of a United Ireland.

LuckyLloyd · 25-07-2019 10:09AM

The rerouting of supply chains is very real. It’s hard work and we’re still going to have a significant minority of goods trade that depends on the land bridge come Oct 31st but we’ve significantly reduced our volumes in that regard over the past three years. We’re also down to 11% as a whole for direct exports to Britain.

My expectation is that the detailed plans will involve funding for increased ferry services directly to France. That’s not a solution for everything and it takes longer but Ireland is clearly decoupling from the UK as every month passes.

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 10:10AM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

For anyone interested in the truth, here's what Varadkar actually said:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ireland-cannot-shift-on-hard-border-after-brexit-varadkar-1.3759832

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/varadkar-confirms-plans-for-hard-brexit-now-being-implemented-1.3760008

May 2018

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/leo-varadkar-offers-guarantee-of-no-border-on-island-of-ireland-1.3496592%3fmode=amp

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 10:12AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are you in favour of Irexit? Because you don't seem to give Ireland any latitude to do anything else here.

I live on the border and I cannot see a win for Ireland here if we are to protect the Single market which I think it is imperative we play our part in doing.

Currently, I am coming around to the position that we may have to pull on the green jersey (over our EU one) and seal the border as best we can.

It's cuts both ways here if there is no border controlling what is going into the north. Never minding the rest of the UK, the effect of cheaper goods (if things go predictably pear shaped in the UK, then things will be cheaper here) flooding northwards will destroy the already fragile economy of the north.

I am in favour of serious reform of EU. Right now would I vote leave no however in 5-6 years time and nothing changes then yes I would vote out.

VinLieger · 25-07-2019 10:12AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

May 2018

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/leo-varadkar-offers-guarantee-of-no-border-on-island-of-ireland-1.3496592%3fmode=amp

Ohh you mean when no deal was not being discussed as a real possibility by anyone credible and the Backstop was 6 months from being signed off on?

Have you ever noticed how things can change given new information or events?

FreudianSlippers · 25-07-2019 10:14AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

May 2018

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/leo-varadkar-offers-guarantee-of-no-border-on-island-of-ireland-1.3496592%3fmode=amp

You didn't bother reading that article did you?

“We stand by the backstop, we stand by the text of Northern Ireland Irish protocol as it is and we must insist that it be included in the withdrawal agreement unless there is a better alternative,”

Wonder what has changed since May 2018? Oh that's right... everything has changed including the PM being unable to get the agreed deal past parliament on multiple occasions. Varadkar has zero control as to whether there is a hard border on this island.

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 10:15AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Ohh you mean when no deal was not being discussed as a real possibility by anyone credible and the Backstop was 6 months from being signed off on?

Have you ever noticed how things can change given new information or events?

Which is why you don't make such promises when nothing was agreed by all sides.

FreudianSlippers · 25-07-2019 10:15AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Which is why you don't make such promises when nothing was agreed by all sides.

He. Didn't. Make. Any. Promises.

FrancieBrady · 25-07-2019 10:18AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I am in favour of serious reform of EU. Right now would I vote leave no however in 5-6 years time and nothing changes then yes I would vote out.

So, as somebody who thinks we should stay in. How do we protect the Single Market?

Never mind what the UK is or isn't doing. How do WE fulfill our obligation to protect the fundamental core of the EU?

Russman · 25-07-2019 10:19AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

May 2018

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/leo-varadkar-offers-guarantee-of-no-border-on-island-of-ireland-1.3496592%3fmode=amp

So, what does it matter if events (a no-deal crash out) lead to us being obligated to put up a border, and someone says "....but you said" to Leo ?
I don't really think anyone cares tbh. Everyone knows that's what must happen if the UK crashes out, its certainly not by choice that we'd erect a border. The world doesn't stop because of the sensibilities of a few who don't get it.

FreudianSlippers · 25-07-2019 10:20AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I am in favour of serious reform of EU. Right now would I vote leave no however in 5-6 years time and nothing changes then yes I would vote out.

I find that people who say this normally can't list 5 reforms they'd like to see. I'll soft-ball it for you and ask for 3.

First Up · 25-07-2019 10:20AM

There won't be a hard border but there won't be un-fettered access to the EU via Ireland either. Procedures at Irish ports will see to that.

Some slippage across the Irish border will probably happen but nobody is losing sleep over that and surveillance of paper trails will catch enough of it to be commercially un-viable.

Nobody is bothered if Mrs A in Newry gives a few eggs to Mrs B in Dundalk.

FreudianSlippers · 25-07-2019 10:21AM

Russman wrote: »

So, what does it matter if events (a no-deal crash out) lead to us being obligated to put up a border, and someone says "....but you said" to Leo ?
I don't really think anyone cares tbh. Everyone knows that's what must happen if the UK crashes out, its certainly not by choice that we'd erect a border. The world doesn't stop because of the sensibilities of a few who don't get it.

I'm not sure anyone thought we'd be where we are now in May 2018... such simpler times!

FreudianSlippers · 25-07-2019 10:22AM

First Up wrote: »

There won't be a hard border but there won't be un-fettered access to the EU via Ireland either. Procedures at Irish ports will see to that.

Some slippage across the Irish border will probably happen but nobody is losing sleep over that and surveillance of paper trails will catch enough of it to be commercially un-viable.

Nobody is bothered if Mrs A in Newry gives a few eggs to Mrs B in Dundalk.

How do procedures at Irish ports prevent movement of goods to the EU across the border?

Valhallapt · 25-07-2019 10:28AM

On sky news twice this morning that Dublin/ Brussels considering a 10 year time limit on the backstop, anyone see any other source for this?

Lackadaisical · 25-07-2019 10:38AM

I would generally take any rumors in the UK media about Irish-EU relations and discussion with not only a pinch of salt but a few buckets of the stuff

Time and time again these tend to turn out to be wishful thinking by Brexiteers.

What happens is someone speculates and it gets reported as fact. That’s been a repeating phenomenon for the last couple of years.

I wouldn’t pay much attention to it unless confirmed by a more reliable non UK source.

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 10:41AM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I find that people who say this normally can't list 5 reforms they'd like to see. I'll soft-ball it for you and ask for 3.

* Migration
* Elections & Top Jobs
* Budget Reform
* Legislation Process
* Individual Member State Power Restored

FrancieBrady · 25-07-2019 10:41AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

On sky news twice this morning that Dublin/ Brussels considering a 10 year time limit on the backstop, anyone see any other source for this?

Which would mean Ireland completely surrendering on it's 'A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop' position and Boris surrendering on his 'we want the entire backstop gone' position.

Dubious about that report to say the least.

Lackadaisical · 25-07-2019 10:44AM

There are two simple figures that Irish commentators speaking to the UK need to keep hammering: 11% of Irish exports go to the UK but 46% of UK exports go to the EU. We are not the ones who are highly exposed in this mess.

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 10:46AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So, as somebody who thinks we should stay in. How do we protect the Single Market?

Never mind what the UK is or isn't doing. How do WE fulfill our obligation to protect the fundamental core of the EU?

If it avoids a border then all Irish goods have checks entering mainland Europe however they are given priority to reduce disruption unlike those from UK/NI or rest of world.

FreudianSlippers · 25-07-2019 10:47AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

* Migration
* Elections & Top Jobs
* Budget Reform
* Legislation Process
* Individual Member State Power Restored

What does any of this mean?

LuckyLloyd · 25-07-2019 10:50AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

If it avoids a border then all Irish goods have checks entering mainland Europe however they are given priority to reduce disruption unlike those from UK/NI or rest of world.

So we exit the single market? No thanks.

VinLieger · 25-07-2019 10:50AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

If it avoids a border then all Irish goods have checks entering mainland Europe however they are given priority to reduce disruption unlike those from UK/NI or rest of world.

This is absolute insanity, separating ourselves like this and reducing our competitiveness will kill our economy.

Also without a border there's no point in treating us differently to the UK/NI or rest of the world as thanks to the tariff free state of the UK for the foreseeable future if the go no deal literally anything can come through Ireland via the open border in the north and the EU will have to treat us like everyone else.

lawred2 · 25-07-2019 10:51AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I am in favour of serious reform of EU. Right now would I vote leave no however in 5-6 years time and nothing changes then yes I would vote out.

Can you detail these reforms?

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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