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Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • #5642
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    There have been several reports of EU putting pressure on Ireland to protect single market in a no deal. I remember reading France, Germany, Netherlands and rather surprisingly Denmark. The border is a shared problem however Irish Government have ignored that dispute UK causing it.

    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-denies-merkel-is-piling-on-pressure-over-nodeal-border-plans-37946911.html

    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html

    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hogan-accuses-amateurish-uk-of-trying-to-force-eus-hand-on-border-issue-37937527.html

    If they leave in October and there is no deal nothing will change for a few months, both sides will agree to this.

    The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...
    The Single Market is more important to Ireland as a nation than a United Ireland will ever be.


  • #5643
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,986 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    FreudianSlippers wrote: »
    The Single Market is more important to Ireland as a nation than a United Ireland will ever be.


    In fact its absolutely integral to the success of a UI.


  • #5644
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,550 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    I suspect like most of there no deal planning they have no plan to reveal. UK know the EU will do the work anyway.
    The truth is that in a no-deal situation both UK and EU need to police their borders. Since they will be policing them for different purposes, one side starting to do so will not remove the need for the other to do so.

    Neither wants to admit that they will need to police their borders, but both will need it. And neither wants to say how exactly they will police their borders, since they want to retain flexibility to do so in the least intrusive way as the situation develops. Above all, neither wants to be first to police the border; each will hope that circumstances compel the other to do it first. And each, when they do start to do it, will do so gradually, starting with minimal measures and then stepping them up as the situation deterioriates, hoping to blame the need for the step-up on the other side.

    All this is pretty well inevitable, unless there is an agreement on measures to avoid a hard border.

    Varadkar could (and should) have managed expectations a bit better on this. But I'm pretty confident that, when the border hardens, regardless of which side moves first to harden it, Irish public opinion will overwhelmingly, and quite rightly, put the blame on the UK.


  • #5645
    kunst nugget
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,375 ✭✭✭✭kunst nugget


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    Just wait and see how Ireland sorting out the border goes down with the electorate...no body in Government or opposition will want to be responsible.

    Nobody in Government will be responsible for the border. The Republic of Ireland did not create the situation we now face. That is entirely the fault of Britain.


  • #5646
    InTheShadows
    Closed Accounts Posts: 727 ✭✭✭InTheShadows


    kunst nugget wrote: »
    Nobody in Government will be responsible for the border. The Republic of Ireland did not create the situation we now face. That is entirely the fault of Britain.

    What a ridiculous statement. Of course we are responsible for enforcing our borders.


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  • #5647
    Jamie2k9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,845 ✭✭✭✭Jamie2k9


    kunst nugget wrote: »
    Nobody in Government will be responsible for the border. The Republic of Ireland did not create the situation we now face. That is entirely the fault of Britain.

    Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.


  • #5648
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,517 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    I suspect like most of there no deal planning they have no plan to reveal (in-depth details). UK know the EU will do the work anyway.
    Except EU (and Ireland) will do nothing to prevent smuggling into the UK; only out of the UK. I used this example before but take cigarettes as an example. Exporting one container/truck out of Ireland / EU (i.e. get back full VAT, duties etc. as the product is not going to be sold in Ireland/EU) would net you about a million GBP (this is based on retail 8 GBP per pack with 80% tax (up to 90% on cheaper brands) and then selling them at half price of 4 GBP with a truck/container taking about 475.000 packs). Remember no border controls on the UK side so it's risk free million per truck/container...


  • #5649
    mickoneill31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 855 ✭✭✭mickoneill31


    InTheShadows wrote: »
    What a ridiculous statement. Of course we are responsible for enforcing our borders.

    Did you misrepresent what he posted on purpose or by accident?


  • #5650
    kunst nugget
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,375 ✭✭✭✭kunst nugget


    InTheShadows wrote: »
    What a ridiculous statement. Of course we are responsible for enforcing our borders.

    We will enforce an border but we are not responsible for the border going up.


  • #5651
    Sparko
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,224 ✭✭✭Sparko


    L1011 wrote: »
    It's not 39bn anymore as the UK has been making its regular payments during the extension. The reduced figure should be being shouted from the rooftops as it goes down as it damages the fantasy economics of Johnson etc

    It was just mentioned on Sky that the amount will stand at 33 billion at 31 October 2019.


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  • #5652
    kunst nugget
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,375 ✭✭✭✭kunst nugget


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.

    Ireland or the EU are not imposing a border - border controls to protect the single market are a response to Britain leaving the single market. That is not something that Ireland or the EU wanted so why should we be held responsible for that?


  • #5653
    Valhallapt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭Valhallapt


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

    The U.K. will pay the remaining 33bn quietly, if they defaulted on this they would effectively lock themselves out of international debt markets, by having to pay extortionate interest rates, at a time when they are going to need to borrow a lot.


  • #5654
    Dytalus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 459 ✭✭Dytalus


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.

    "Blaming the Brits" is perfectly fair to do in this situation. Part of our requirements as members of the WTO demands that we police goods coming into our nation (or rather, into the Single Market). The same is true of Britain - they must also police goods coming into the UK.

    They voted to leave the Single Market, necessitating both parties to put up border controls under our obligations as part of the World Trade Organisation. Unless Her Majesty's Government was outrageously ignorant on the matter, they knew this would be the case but refused (or forgot, if we assume incompetence rather than callous disregard) to account for the Good Friday Agreement.

    They then refused every possible legal option presented to them for maintaining an open border without breaking any laws or rules of international trade.

    We will be required to put up a border at some point, yes. But it's entirely the UK's fault that it is necessary.


  • #5655
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭Russman


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    Just wait and see how Ireland sorting out the border goes down with the electorate...no body in Government or opposition will want to be responsible.

    I think the vast majority of Irish people (bar a few head bangers) are aware of, and up to date with, current affairs enough that they know we wouldn't be putting a border up for the craic, its simply something we must do in the event of a no-deal crash out.
    Single market access is way more important to the country as a whole than any perception of "who put up the first checkpoint".


  • #5656
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭Russman


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.

    Won't wash with who ?


  • #5657
    Lackadaisical
    Closed Accounts Posts: 518 ✭✭✭Lackadaisical


    It’s a bit like a bully punching you in the face and then trying to blame you, claiming you ran into their fist.

    The logic of the brexiteers is to rant, rave and bully and simultaneously claim to be the victim.


  • #5658
    Tacitus Kilgore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,128 ✭✭✭Tacitus Kilgore


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.

    kunst nugget wrote: »
    Ireland or the EU are not imposing a border - border controls to protect the single market are a response to Britain leaving the single market. That is not something that Ireland or the EU wanted so why should we be held responsible for that?


    The poster seems to carry a post colonial inferiority complex to match the British superiority complex.


    Said blame only exists in the british tabloids anyway, the adults (EU) in the other room will be too busy keeping their shit together to be worried about daily mail headlines.


  • #5659
    KildareP
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,673 ✭✭✭KildareP


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    Just wait and see how Ireland sorting out the border goes down with the electorate...no body in Government or opposition will want to be responsible.
    I don't think it will have the effect you think (hope?) it will.

    It will be seen as the Irish government once again in our long history of being forced to do something because of the British. This will NOT sit well either side of the border.
    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    I suspect like most of there no deal planning they have no plan to reveal (in-depth details). UK know the EU will do the work anyway.
    Neither you nor I are privy to any such plan to say categorically whether it exists or not.

    However, apart from the fact the Irish government know how much is at stake not to have a plan, the EU simply wouldn't allow a situation to develop whereby the Irish government sat idle with no plan at all. So I think it's safe to say there is a plan, likely with great detail.

    Certainly on the ground I've noticed changes to supply chains in recent months.

    I put in an order for computers recently - ordered the same computers many times before, same manufacturer, same spec, same supplier - which previously came from Warrington in the UK through Dublin Port. This time round it came from Germany via Cork.
    I've ordered a few items recently off Amazon UK using Prime Shipping to Ireland, I would have exptected them to come from the UK since they were fulfilled by Amazon, but they were shipped from Germany.
    Lidl and Aldi have been changing product ranges recently - some have been replaced with alternatives, some have disappeared entirely, others have English packaging but German labelling on the inside.

    The UK are being quietly routed out.


  • #5660
    Valhallapt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭Valhallapt


    KildareP wrote: »

    The UK are being quietly routed out.

    I this this is going to accelerate in the coming days after what’s happened in London. At the last deadline that passed a lot of stock piling went on, seems like now the risk of a disorderly brexit is now too high to not start executing plans to change supply chains.


  • #5661
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,550 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    Again, blaming the Brits wont wash if its Ireland or EU imposing a border.
    Neither Ireland nor the EU will impose a border. They will operate a border which the UK will impose by its free, unconstrained, unilateral choices to (a) withdraw from the mutual arrangements that currently keep the border open, and (b) refuse to enter into agreed replacement arrangements to keep the border open.


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  • #5662
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,726 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    First Up wrote: »
    Quite the opposite; many eyes - human and otherwise. There are ways to check/ensure the contents of containers without physically looking at every item.

    I'm not saying the odd item won't get across but nobody will be able to operate a smuggling business without anyone noticing.

    Can you give detail on this, was a part of my question?


  • #5663
    Duane Dibbley
    Closed Accounts Posts: 418 ✭✭Duane Dibbley


    I think its time for the Irish Government to start informing people of the possibility of Border controls between ROI & UK in the case of No deal.

    Most are well aware of it anyway.


  • #5664
    Jamie2k9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,845 ✭✭✭✭Jamie2k9


    KildareP wrote: »
    I don't think it will have the effect you think (hope?) it will.

    It will be seen as the Irish government once again in our long history of being forced to do something because of the British. This will NOT sit well either side of the border.


    Neither you nor I are privy to any such plan to say categorically whether it exists or not.

    However, apart from the fact the Irish government know how much is at stake not to have a plan, the EU simply wouldn't allow a situation to develop whereby the Irish government sat idle with no plan at all. So I think it's safe to say there is a plan, likely with great detail.

    Certainly on the ground I've noticed changes to supply chains in recent months.

    I put in an order for computers recently - ordered the same computers many times before, same manufacturer, same spec, same supplier - which previously came from Warrington in the UK through Dublin Port. This time round it came from Germany via Cork.
    I've ordered a few items recently off Amazon UK using Prime Shipping to Ireland, I would have exptected them to come from the UK since they were fulfilled by Amazon, but they were shipped from Germany.
    Lidl and Aldi have been changing product ranges recently - some have been replaced with alternatives, some have disappeared entirely, others have English packaging but German labelling on the inside.

    The UK are being quietly routed out.

    A border combined with no deal will have a significant impact and the Government will take there share of the blame.

    Why would I hope for such a reaction?


  • #5665
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,076 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    So you want an information campaign on what most people already know on an issue we don't know the outcome of?

    You only have to see the reaction to Coveneys piece in the Times last week to see that anything the Irish say will be pounched on by the UK to try to drive a wedge.


  • #5666
    Jamie2k9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,845 ✭✭✭✭Jamie2k9


    Duane Dibbley wrote: »
    I think its time for the Irish Government to start informing people of the possibility of Border controls between ROI & UK in the case of No deal.

    Most are well aware of it anyway.

    Leo has guaranteed no border on the island “full stop” so we are all grand.


  • #5667
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,076 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    What would you blame the government for if no deal happens?


  • #5668
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,550 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    Leo has guaranteed no border on the island “full stop” so we are all grand.
    Linketty-link?


  • #5669
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,076 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    Duane Dibbley wrote: »
    I think its time for the Irish Government to start informing people of the possibility of Border controls between ROI & UK in the case of No deal.

    Most are well aware of it anyway.

    Leo has guaranteed no border on the island “full stop” so we are all grand.
    Based on a guarantee from the UK government. Seems reasonable position to have taken.


  • #5670
    Jamie2k9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,845 ✭✭✭✭Jamie2k9


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    What would you blame the government for if no deal happens?

    If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?


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  • #5671
    kunst nugget
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,375 ✭✭✭✭kunst nugget


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    If we enter another recession do you think the Government will come up smelling of roses?

    What are we to blame the Government for exactly in the event of a No Deal?


This discussion has been closed.
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