Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

20silkcut · 25-07-2019 04:55AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

To be honest I don't know how it is going to work either. I believe that Johnson will probably be able to do physical border checking away from the border. How well it is going to work I don't know but I believe it is his intention and it makes sense politically for him to do this.

Therefore it is not going to look good if the South has physical infrastructure right up to the border itself. That is where the international press is going to be if brexit occurs. It's going to be a political problem for Coveney to solve.

By not agreeing to a back stop the UK government is frankly adopting a menacing position with an absolute careless and wreck less disregard for creating disastrous divisions on this island. That is the only narrative that should surround this issue in my opinion.
Entirely the fault of the UK and DUP.

volchitsa · 25-07-2019 05:39AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Chlorinated chicken isn't any more unhealthy than it's non chlorinated counterpart. Chlorinated chicken, and the EUs opposition to it is more an animal welfare measure as well as a protectionist measure.

There are many more deaths in the US from poultry-related food poisoning than in the EU, so it seems there is an effect on human health too, and that chlorination just doesn't work as well as the EU's stricter animal husbandry standards.

maynooth_rules · 25-07-2019 07:09AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

"we" will be the major downfall of Leo stint as leader. Ireland overplayed it's hand.

Ah the Sammy Wilson line. Little old Ireland should remember it's place. It's literally killing the UK and the minority of staunch unionists in the North that we have this power in the negotiations alongside out European friends. If 'over playing' our hand means protecting peace that was hard fought on this island, and protecting the will of the large majority in Norther Ireland, then we are quite happy with that.

Headshot · 25-07-2019 07:10AM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Wow his brother has taken a job having resigned less than a year ago, calling for a second referendum.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1154148705555099649

What a family.

You got to love them nepotism here

listermint · 25-07-2019 07:37AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Chlorinated chicken isn't any more unhealthy than it's non chlorinated counterpart. Chlorinated chicken, and the EUs opposition to it is more an animal welfare measure as well as a protectionist measure.

Bathing your food in chlorine isn't any more unhealthy than not.

Says guy on the internet with no qualifications to back it up.

Zubeneschamali · 25-07-2019 07:52AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I can't get my head around how it will work without massive blind eyes being turned.

It won't work for long, and both sides know it.

The Brexiteers think the EU will force Ireland to put up a hard border, and that they will be off the hook since we did it first.

Leo & co. think the Channel ports will collapse and the next PM will be in Brussels begging for a deal before Christmas, and then the backstop will be back.

They are playing a game called Chlorinated Chicken.

EKRIUQ · 25-07-2019 07:55AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Chlorinated chicken isn't any more unhealthy than it's non chlorinated counterpart. Chlorinated chicken, and the EUs opposition to it is more an animal welfare measure as well as a protectionist measure.

Chlorinated is only part of the problem, it's the reason why it needs to be chlorinated that's what the EU objects too.

First Up · 25-07-2019 07:58AM

FrancieBrady wrote:

I make 1000's of crossing a year as do many many more. What is to stop us taking un-regulated products across and slipping them into containers originating in the south? I can't get my head around how it will work without massive blind eyes being turned.

Quite the opposite; many eyes - human and otherwise. There are ways to check/ensure the contents of containers without physically looking at every item.

I'm not saying the odd item won't get across but nobody will be able to operate a smuggling business without anyone noticing.

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 08:07AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It won't work for long, and both sides know it.

The Brexiteers think the EU will force Ireland to put up a hard border, and that they will be off the hook since we did it first.

Leo & co. think the Channel ports will collapse and the next PM will be in Brussels begging for a deal before Christmas, and then the backstop will be back.

They are playing a game called Chlorinated Chicken.

Its fact the EU will force Ireland, they have already discussed. Leo and Simon will bow to the EU and put Irish peoples interests second.

Beechwoodspark · 25-07-2019 08:09AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Its fact the EU will force Ireland, they have already discussed. Leo and Simon will bow to the EU and put Irish peoples interests second.

Any link for this?

25-07-2019 08:13AM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Any link for this?

We'll probably have to wait a few months for this policy to come out.

VinLieger · 25-07-2019 08:13AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Its fact the EU will force Ireland, they have already discussed. Leo and Simon will bow to the EU and put Irish peoples interests second.

Its in all of our interests North and South to secure our position in the single market, anything that jeopordises that should be dealt with quickly and efficiently.

A UI wont ever happen if we are dumped from the single market, our economy will tank harder than the UK's in the case of a no deal and we will be screwed.

If we secure the single market access and thanks to a hard border being erected a UI will be far more likely to occur, and possibly even occur successfully without destroying our eonomy, which ultimately is actually putting the interests of all irish citizens both north and south of the border first, the fact people like yourself are unable to see the longterm strategy or benefits is kind of sad.

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 08:21AM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Any link for this?

There have been several reports of EU putting pressure on Ireland to protect single market in a no deal. I remember reading France, Germany, Netherlands and rather surprisingly Denmark. The border is a shared problem however Irish Government have ignored that dispute UK causing it.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-denies-merkel-is-piling-on-pressure-over-nodeal-border-plans-37946911.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hogan-accuses-amateurish-uk-of-trying-to-force-eus-hand-on-border-issue-37937527.html

If they leave in October and there is no deal nothing will change for a few months, both sides will agree to this.

The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

L1011 · 25-07-2019 08:25AM

It's not 39bn anymore as the UK has been making its regular payments during the extension. The reduced figure should be being shouted from the rooftops as it goes down as it damages the fantasy economics of Johnson etc

murphaph · 25-07-2019 08:29AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Its fact the EU will force Ireland, they have already discussed. Leo and Simon will bow to the EU and put Irish peoples interests second.

Irish peoples interests are best served by maintaining the integrity of OUR single market. It's painful to have to harden the border but needs must.

Tell me how · 25-07-2019 08:29AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

There have been several reports of EU putting pressure on Ireland to protect single market in a no deal. I remember reading France, Germany, Netherlands and rather surprisingly Denmark. The border is a shared problem however Irish Government have ignored that dispute UK causing it.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-denies-merkel-is-piling-on-pressure-over-nodeal-border-plans-37946911.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hogan-accuses-amateurish-uk-of-trying-to-force-eus-hand-on-border-issue-37937527.html

If they leave in October and there is no deal nothing will change for a few months, both sides will agree to this.

The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

None of those articles are evidence of EU pressure.
One says no EU pressure is being applied.
Another says the UK is trying to put pressure on for change.
The 3rd discusses Irish contingency conversations which already Coveney said was simply a conversation.

The Daily Mail, Express, Sun etc talk about EU pressure in an effort to suggest it is happening but it is non-existent.

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 08:30AM

L1011 wrote: »

It's not 39bn anymore as the UK has been making its regular payments during the extension. The reduced figure should be being shouted from the rooftops as it goes down as it damages the fantasy economics of Johnson etc

Not really been following the make up of the 39b. Yes they are continuing payments and still receiving whatever they were before 29 March. Equally latest EU elections will cost a lot with pensions. So is it really going down?

Beechwoodspark · 25-07-2019 08:32AM

Jeffry Donaldson on RTÉ asking for pragmatism and compromise from the Irish Govt....

kuro68k · 25-07-2019 08:33AM

The most frustrating thing, as a Brit, is that Labour is so useless. Where is the no confidence motion this morning?

VinLieger · 25-07-2019 08:39AM

kuro68k wrote: »

The most frustrating thing, as a Brit, is that Labour is so useless. Where is the no confidence motion this morning?

They are going to wait till the 2 week session in september prior to the conferences.

Why? Nobody has a clue beyond corbyn loves sitting on that fence and being indecisive as fvck, hes as bad if not worse than Clement Attlee for his "wait and see" attitude

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 08:41AM

VinLieger wrote: »

They are going to wait till the 2 week session in september prior to the conferences.

Why? Nobody has a clue beyond corbyn loves sitting on that fence and being indecisive as fvck, hes as bad if not worse than Clement Attlee for his "wait and see" attitude

Calling one today would be pointless as its guaranteed to fail.

ambro25 · 25-07-2019 08:43AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Not really been following the make up of the 39b. Yes they are continuing payments and still receiving whatever they were before 29 March. Equally latest EU elections will cost a lot with pensions. So is it really going down?

How so? New Brit MEPs will have been in their job for a whole 4 months or so, if the UK Brexits on Halloween. For returning MEPs, just an extra 4 months worth of accrued rights. Or did you think an MEP just has to be in the job for a single day, to qualify for a full EU pension?

Moreover, the volume of UK MEP pensions pales in comparison to that of the Brit retirees from EU institutions.

In reference to a mention in your earlier post, the £39bn (or however much) has nothing to do with the RoI/NI border/GFA, btw. It's a completely distinct head of negotiation (long agreed by the UK, moreover).

VinLieger · 25-07-2019 08:43AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Calling one today would be pointless as its guaranteed to fail.

LOL the way you speak in absolutes without any evidence is quite ridiculous.

Considering the already razor thin margin and all the people Boris has just thrown into the backbenches how can you be so sure?

positron · 25-07-2019 08:45AM

Priti Patel, that Priti Patel who said Irish should remember the food shortages and agree to a better border deal?

It's like Trump & cronies just moved in next door. Absolute nightmare.

Thanks feck for EU, we would be toast without them. Even with them, it looks like we are about to get shafted. What kinda border would pollinators understand once they bring GM crops in the north?

Nody · 25-07-2019 08:52AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

There have been several reports of EU putting pressure on Ireland to protect single market in a no deal. I remember reading France, Germany, Netherlands and rather surprisingly Denmark. The border is a shared problem however Irish Government have ignored that dispute UK causing it.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-denies-merkel-is-piling-on-pressure-over-nodeal-border-plans-37946911.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hogan-accuses-amateurish-uk-of-trying-to-force-eus-hand-on-border-issue-37937527.html

If they leave in October and there is no deal nothing will change for a few months, both sides will agree to this.

The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

Oh Jamie what to say. For starters the 39 billion is pocket change for EU; no seriously it really is. To put this in perspective this is 39 billion over about 40 years; the 2018 budget alone was 168 billion. To put that in perspective it's 0.5% of the budget for the time period; that's below inflation levels. However; EU is a rule based organization and will ask for their money before any FTA is done simply because UK agreed to pay for certain programs etc. and they want the funding accordingly. It's not going to cripple EU like the UK seems to thinks but they want it because it's what UK agreed to.

Secondly yes Ireland will expected to sort out the border for the same reason as any other country would; it's now an external border and that sets a requirement for it to be controlled. However unlike what you appear to think the Irish government has been aware about this since before Brexit as well as worked on the plans on how to handle it. However EU is also aware that this whole issue is caused by the UK and hence things such as additional funding will be there such as is done for the Baltic states due to Russia etc. That's part of the whole point of being part of EU; you have obligations (protect external borders) but you also get significant benefits (single market access, support for weak regions, ongoing support as part of a larger more powerful group etc.). As a bonus the hard border will also drive unification forward like a truck going downhill simply because of the disparity of how things will go on each side of the border. It's nice to be a unionist but if your choice becomes food on the table or being a unionist for a majority of people the choice becomes quite easy.

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 08:53AM

VinLieger wrote: »

LOL the way you speak in absolutes without any evidence is quite ridiculous.

Considering the already razor thin margin and all the people Boris has just thrown into the backbenches how can you be so sure?

Thin majority yes, no Tory remainer would bring him down on day one. They will wait and see over the summer. Now closer to a no deal yes they would vote against him.

KildareP · 25-07-2019 09:02AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

There have been several reports of EU putting pressure on Ireland to protect single market in a no deal. I remember reading France, Germany, Netherlands and rather surprisingly Denmark. The border is a shared problem however Irish Government have ignored that dispute UK causing it.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-denies-merkel-is-piling-on-pressure-over-nodeal-border-plans-37946911.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hogan-accuses-amateurish-uk-of-trying-to-force-eus-hand-on-border-issue-37937527.html

If they leave in October and there is no deal nothing will change for a few months, both sides will agree to this.

The EU not receiving its 39 billion over the Irish border, only one solution to solve that and it will be left to Dublin...

The Irish Government have not been ignoring it, but equally they haven't been revealing their plans in public either - and rightly so.

The moment the Irish government reveal they have plans to erect a hard border it lets the UK off the hook. The UK can sit back and let the EU do all the work.

Whereas the UK wouldn't last a wet week if, as they claim they will, their border is just left wide open - Canada only last week demonstrated this by refusing to either roll over or negotiate a FTA because a border-free, tariff-free arrangement will always be infinitely better than a bilateral trade deal.

Every other country will be thinking the same, especially those that might be looking to offload cheap, low quality product - it wouldn't ever get to a FTA stage but with WTO Most Favoured Nation rules and no-tarriffs it can easily get through. And even if they do want to levy tarriffs, with no UK border, how are they going to apply them?

I'm sure even the most hardened Brexiteers in the UK realise this deep, deep, deeeeeep in the back of the mind. Everyone knows it will have to happen - but so long as the UK see there being no plan to do so they can't react and the current hope is they get Ireland/EU to cave first so that they can say it's not them.

As for the £39bn - the EU will get it one way or another, either up front or after the markets have deemed it a sovereign default and the UK credit rating goes through the floor - Boris is going to have borrow to meet all of yesterday's spending pledges from somewhere!

Somewhat related - I'd love to know that sort of public reaction it would get if anyone in the UK who thinks it's a Brexit dividend found out that the DUP have already swallowed up close to 5% of that dividend (between the cash-for-ash scandal, £500mn and the Confidence & Supply sweetener, £1bn) and that's probably going to go up again should a further confidence & supply deal be agreed.

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 09:05AM

Nody wrote: »

Oh Jamie what to say. For starters the 39 billion is pocket change for EU; no seriously it really is. To put this in perspective this is 39 billion over about 40 years; the 2018 budget alone was 168 billion. To put that in perspective it's 0.5% of the budget for the time period; that's below inflation levels. However; EU is a rule based organization and will ask for their money before any FTA is done simply because UK agreed to pay for certain programs etc. and they want the funding accordingly. It's not going to cripple EU like the UK seems to thinks but they want it because it's what UK agreed to.

Secondly yes Ireland will expected to sort out the border for the same reason as any other country would; it's now an external border and that sets a requirement for it to be controlled. However unlike what you appear to think the Irish government has been aware about this since before Brexit as well as worked on the plans on how to handle it. However EU is also aware that this whole issue is caused by the UK and hence things such as additional funding will be there such as is done for the Baltic states due to Russia etc. That's part of the whole point of being part of EU; you have obligations (protect external borders) but you also get significant benefits (single market access, support for weak regions, ongoing support as part of a larger more powerful group etc.). As a bonus the hard border will also drive unification forward like a truck going downhill simply because of the disparity of how things will go on each side of the border. It's nice to be a unionist but if your choice becomes food on the table or being a unionist for a majority of people the choice becomes quite easy.

Just wait and see how Ireland sorting out the border goes down with the electorate...no body in Government or opposition will want to be responsible.

VinLieger · 25-07-2019 09:09AM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Just wait and see how Ireland sorting out the border goes down with the electorate...no body in Government or opposition will want to be responsible.

The vast majority of Irish people actually understand that any border that needs to be erected is entirely the UK's fault for starting this whole insanity in the first place.

Im curious why you seem to think its somehow our fault though?

Jamie2k9 · 25-07-2019 09:09AM

KildareP wrote: »

The Irish Government have not been ignoring it, but equally they haven't been revealing their plans in public either - and rightly so.

The moment the Irish government reveal they have plans to erect a hard border it lets the UK off the hook. The UK can sit back and let the EU do all the work.

Whereas the UK wouldn't last a wet week if, as they claim they will, their border is just left wide open - Canada only last week demonstrated this by refusing to either roll over or negotiate a FTA because a border-free, tariff-free arrangement will always be infinitely better than a bilateral trade deal.

Every other country will be thinking the same, especially those that might be looking to offload cheap, low quality product - it wouldn't ever get to a FTA stage but with WTO Most Favoured Nation rules and no-tarriffs it can easily get through. And even if they do want to levy tarriffs, with no UK border, how are they going to apply them?

I'm sure even the most hardened Brexiteers in the UK realise this deep, deep, deeeeeep in the back of the mind. Everyone knows it will have to happen - but so long as the UK see there being no plan to do so they can't react and the current hope is they get Ireland/EU to cave first so that they can say it's not them.

As for the £39bn - the EU will get it one way or another, either up front or after the markets have deemed it a sovereign default and the UK credit rating goes through the floor - Boris is going to have borrow to meet all of yesterday's spending pledges from somewhere!

Somewhat related - I'd love to know that sort of public reaction it would get if anyone in the UK who thinks it's a Brexit dividend found out that the DUP have already swallowed up close to 5% of that dividend (between the cash-for-ash scandal, £500mn and the Confidence & Supply sweetener, £1bn) and that's probably going to go up again should a further confidence & supply deal be agreed.

I suspect like most of there no deal planning they have no plan to reveal (in-depth details). UK know the EU will do the work anyway.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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