Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

fash · 23-07-2019 04:28AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

We are an independent nation. Ireland is independent within the EU, as opposed to Northern Ireland which is dependent within the UK. The comparison is instructive.

I believe the current GDP difference between the 2 is "the United States compared to Mexico" - and growing in Ireland's favour.

IAmTheReign · 23-07-2019 07:47AM

trellheim wrote: »

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

None whatsoever. In fact had they done any research the Swiss immigration referendum in 2014 would have shown them exactly what to expect. The Swiss voted to end free movement and were told by the EU that if they did they would lose single market access and that all bilateral agreements between Switzerland and the EU would be terminated. The Swiss government were forced into a fairly embarrassing climbdown after years of failed negotiations. I'd say there's quite a few in Brussels who are hoping that the British will do the same but it's looking increasingly unlikely to happen.

McGiver · 23-07-2019 07:48AM

Nody wrote:

Now I do believe that some really want that but it's for more personal reasons (i.e. vulture funds offering lucrative jobs after they leave etc. as a return for the faovur) but they can't really state "I want to UK to crash out so I can make millions" as an argument for such a stand.

I think the ones with financial interests are a tiny minority. Most of the ultra Brexiteers are nothing but deluded and really want no deal, no FTA and even destruction of the EU as a whole. That's not going to change, I'm afraid. They deny facts and reality, and when facing the cliff edge on 31st October they'll choose to believe the nonsense and won't suddenly accept any facts and methodologically sound predictions from BoE, basically all reputable economists, IMF, WB, EU or any other expert.

And I think significant part of them would deny reality even after the crash out with the help of gutter press and charlatan politicians, so I see UK reapplying as very unlikely, especially if UK economically gravitates towards the US. You would need at least 10% swing to the Remain side and a politically engaged population which just isn't there (and in fact is one of the causes of Brexit), plus even the Remain side is to a high degree lukewarm pro-EU at best, even they are affected by the sort of an exceptionalism. We hear "Remain and Reform", do you seriously think that after crashing out, reapplying, getting into the EU, anyone would take them seriously and let them drive any reform with their track record?

UK: No deal!
EU: OK, bye.
UK: We don't need you! You need us.
UK: erm... Can we reapply?
EU: Sure, sign here.
UK: Signed. We want a Reform!
EU: Right...but what's the reform?
UK: UK to be the boss, of course.
EU: No, thanks

leitrim4life · 23-07-2019 08:38AM

IAmTheReign wrote: »

None whatsoever. In fact had they done any research the Swiss immigration referendum in 2014 would have shown them exactly what to expect. The Swiss voted to end free movement and were told by the EU that if they did they would lose single market access and that all bilateral agreements between Switzerland and the EU would be terminated. The Swiss government were forced into a fairly embarrassing climbdown after years of failed negotiations. I'd say there's quite a few in Brussels who are hoping that the British will do the same but it's looking increasingly unlikely to happen.

The EU allowed Swiss to ring fence areas where unemployment was higher than Swiss average, thus effectively excluding EU citizens from getting jobs in those areas it would be like us ringfencing Mayo and telling rest of EU you can get work in any county but Mayo.

Nody · 23-07-2019 08:49AM

leitrim4life wrote: »

The EU allowed Swiss to ring fence areas where unemployment was higher than Swiss average, thus effectively excluding EU citizens from getting jobs in those areas it would be like us ringfencing Mayo and telling rest of EU you can get work in any county but Mayo.

Not even close; what the law states is:

Under the rules, firms will be legally required to advertise open positions in occupations with high unemployment via regional unemployment (RAV/ORP) offices for five working days before they are advertised publicly.

The so-called ‘job registration requirement’ will initially affect occupations with an unemployment level of 8 percent and over. As of 2020, that figure will drop to 5 percent.

There are 19 occupations currently affected including warehouse workers, kitchen staff and marketing professionals, among others.

Vacancies for these occupations will have to be published exclusively on an online portal that can only be accessed by people officially registered as unemployed in Switzerland.

That's it; nothing else. They can still hire a non Swiss person without any problem; they simply need to wait a bit longer to make it public that they are looking to hire and that's it. There is zero requirement to hire Swiss first but employments groups with high unemployment will get a chance to get their CVs in first to the companies.

Zubeneschamali · 23-07-2019 08:54AM

IAmTheReign wrote: »

I'd say there's quite a few in Brussels who are hoping that the British will do the same but it's looking increasingly unlikely to happen.

Everyone sensible hopes Brexit will never happen, but there is an upside for the EU to a hard Brexit - it will be an utter shambles for the UK and a very clear demonstration to all leavers/nationalists/chancers that EU membership is really valuable.

leitrim4life · 23-07-2019 09:34AM

Nody wrote: »

Not even close; what the law states is:
That's it; nothing else. They can still hire a non Swiss person without any problem; they simply need to wait a bit longer to make it public that they are looking to hire and that's it. There is zero requirement to hire Swiss first but employments groups with high unemployment will get a chance to get their CVs in first to the companies.

Seems to me that locals get a distinct 5 day advantage, https://www.youtube.com/embed/T3-UlSe-AqM

Leroy42 · 23-07-2019 09:38AM

Doesn't the recent vote in the HoC, coupled with the increasing number of Tory MPs saying they cannot support No Deal mean that the real centre of crisis is the UK rather than the EU?

It continues to surprise me that people like IDS are allowed parrot the line that the EU will have when all the politics points to Johnson having to adjust.

On the likes of Brexitcast they continually claim that the EU could move (and of course there is always the possibility they might) but never seem to reflect on the actual political situation in the UK.

20silkcut · 23-07-2019 09:42AM

McGiver wrote: »

I think the ones with financial interests are a tiny minority. Most of the ultra Brexiteers are nothing but deluded and really want no deal, no FTA and even destruction of the EU as a whole. That's not going to change, I'm afraid. They deny facts and reality, and when facing the cliff edge on 31st October they'll choose to believe the nonsense and won't suddenly accept any facts and methodologically sound predictions from BoE, basically all reputable economists, IMF, WB, EU or any other expert.

And I think significant part of them would deny reality even after the crash out with the help of gutter press and charlatan politicians, so I see UK reapplying as very unlikely, especially if UK economically gravitates towards the US. You would need at least 10% swing to the Remain side and a politically engaged population which just isn't there (and in fact is one of the causes of Brexit), plus even the Remain side is to a high degree lukewarm pro-EU at best, even they are affected by the sort of an exceptionalism. We hear "Remain and Reform", do you seriously think that after crashing out, reapplying, getting into the EU, anyone would take them seriously and let them drive any reform with their track record?

UK: No deal!
EU: OK, bye.
UK: We don't need you! You need us.
UK: erm... Can we reapply?
EU: Sure, sign here.
UK: Signed. We want a Reform!
EU: Right...but what's the reform?
UK: UK to be the boss, of course.
EU: No, thanks

That’s why I think any second referendum should be just on the no deal issue. That is the biggest issue. And the original vote is still respected.

They should be asked :
Do you wish that the Uk exit the Eu without an agreement?

Yes/no

Surely the vast majority could be trusted to understand that question.
If so, No would probably win. Then there is a mandate to revoke article 50. Start a debate about what they want over a longer time period without an insane hard deadline. And then trigger article 50 again when they clearly know and have a clear road map to what it is they want.

If on the other hand, yes wins then so be it at least all doubt is removed about the will of the people.

Peregrinus · 23-07-2019 09:52AM

20silkcut wrote: »

That’s why I think any second referendum should be just on the no deal issue. That is the biggest issue. And the original vote is still respected.

They should be asked :
Do you wish that the Uk exit the Eu without an agreement?

Yes/no

Surely the vast majority could be trusted to understand that question.
If so No would probably win. Then there is a mandate to revoke article 50. Start a debate about what they want over a longer time period without an insane hard deadline. And then trigger article 50 again when they clearly know what it is they want.

If yes wins then so be it at least all doubt is removed about the will of the people.

A "no" vote doesn't create a mandate to revoke. All it tells you is that the majority does not want to leave with no agreement; it tells you nothing about what they do want. They might, for example, want to leave on the terms of the WA as negotiated. Or on some yet softer terms that are readily negotiable, if only the UK modifies its red lines.

If you want a mandate to revoke Article 50, seek a mandate to revoke article 50.

Tell me how · 23-07-2019 09:53AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Doesn't the recent vote in the HoC, coupled with the increasing number of Tory MPs saying they cannot support No Deal mean that the real centre of crisis is the UK rather than the EU?

It continues to surprise me that people like IDS are allowed parrot the line that the EU will have when all the politics points to Johnson having to adjust.

On the likes of Brexitcast they continually claim that the EU could move (and of course there is always the possibility they might) but never seem to reflect on the actual political situation in the UK.

Because UK participants (and in many cases commentators (Leave and remain)) have allowed themselves to transition into saying more often what they want to happen as opposed to what they think will happen.

Leroy42 · 23-07-2019 09:53AM

But No Deal was never the will of the people. It was never suggested. By no one at all.

So why should No Deal be afforded this level of official acceptance? If the will is to be respected then surely the deal must be the only option (if only one option to be voted on/).

The WA meets all the criteria of the ref. End FoM, leave EU, end annual payments, leave ECJ.

No Deal has been dreamt up by those that can see that any deal is clearly worse than EU membership and so won't to torch the whole lot rather than face the truth

ancapailldorcha · 23-07-2019 09:56AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I thought you claimed to be an independent nation. Did no-one tell Leo?

Next snarky comment will net you a ban. Stop it, please.

20silkcut · 23-07-2019 09:57AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

A "no" vote doesn't create a mandate to revoke. All it tells you is that the majority does not want to leave with no agreement; it tells you nothing about what they do want. They might, for example, want to leave on the terms of the WA as negotiated. Or on some yet softer terms that are readily negotiable, if only the UK modifies its red lines.

If you want a mandate to revoke Article 50, seek a mandate to revoke article 50.

Perhaps the EU could offer an unlimited extension???

As long as any perceived mandate for no deal is removed then such an extension could not be as damaging.
The deadlines looming every few months with no deal on the table is what’s doing the most damage in my opinion.

Tell me how · 23-07-2019 09:59AM

I think we have yet to see the implications of the Brexit process thus far.
For 3 years, it seems that UK government has put all attention in to Brexit (while the Labour opposition focus on looking amateurish).

This at a time when their austerity program should have come to an end. Issues with crime, policing, education, healthcare, housing etc seem to have had no serious conversation or action from a government perspective and while you still have departments responsible for these, the news at the top surely has meant things haven't been operating as they should be.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-07-2019 10:00AM

Hermy wrote: »

Is the exact nature of the antisemitism known? While there is much mention of it in the news I haven't yet heard anything of the specific nature of it.

Slightly OT but I think it’s wll a very obvious campaign to take down Corbyn and it’s not worked.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-07-2019 10:01AM

The UK finding out it’s special relationship with the US isn’t that special. And a taste of whts to come in those trade deals too I’d imagine

https://twitter.com/jonsnowc4/status/1153400045825384453?s=21

reslfj · 23-07-2019 10:01AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Everyone sensible hopes Brexit will never happen, but there is an upside for the EU to a hard Brexit - it will be an utter shambles for the UK and a very clear demonstration to all leavers/nationalists/chancers that EU membership is really valuable.

And as I have written earlier if the UK will try a hard /'No Deal' Brexit the timing - Oct 31. - is near optimum for the EU27.

UK's dependency on imported food is highest in the the winter/early spring period.
The world market demands for and prices on pork is very, very high now and in the next 24-48 months due to African Swine Fever in China. High prices on pork will ensure demand and acceptable prices on many other meat products e.g. beef.
Large parts of the Danish, Dutch, Belgian and French farmers will not - the coming 2-4 years - be hit much by an Oct. 31 Brexit.
Farmers are very important voter groups in e.g. France.

There could easily be a "let's get the hard Brexit over with" autumn-mood in one or more EU27 member states - and one member is enough for a 'No Deal' to happen.

I think, it will not happen if there is a reasonable hope for the WA being ratified or an A50 revoke.
But I do say, the mood can easily get into pessimistic territory by October.

Lars

Tell me how · 23-07-2019 10:04AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Slightly OT but I think it’s wll a very obvious campaign to take down Corbyn and it’s not worked.

I'm not sure if it's as strategic as that.
It has been used (to some degree) for this purpose but surely if it was entirely intentional, they wouldn't have picked something so damaging to the party image.

History is going to rip Labour to shreds during the Brexit A50 period.

Professor Moriarty · 23-07-2019 10:05AM

Tell me how wrote: »

I'm not sure if it's as strategic as that.
It has been used (to some degree) for this purpose but surely if it was entirely intentional, they wouldn't have picked something so damaging to the party image.

History is going to rip Labour to shreds during the Brexit A50 period.

The electorate will do that, probably before Christmas. Unless they ditch Corbyn.

Nody · 23-07-2019 10:05AM

leitrim4life wrote: »

Seems to me that locals get a distinct 5 day advantage, https://www.youtube.com/embed/T3-UlSe-AqM

They can apply for certain jobs 5 days early without any limitations for the company to hire a non Swiss employee; how is that "effectively excluding EU citizens from getting jobs"? Most positions are open for at least two to three weeks if not longer...

Leroy42 · 23-07-2019 10:08AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Slightly OT but I think it’s wll a very obvious campaign to take down Corbyn and it’s not worked.

I have heard this argument before. But to believe it, and I don't for a second not think that certain segments of the media are hyping it up to put pressure on Corbyn/take pressure off Tory) but you then have to believe that a large amount of the members of the Labour party have also bought into this.

So what you then have is a political party with little or no faith in its leader. No matter how you look at it then is not a good idea for anyone.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-07-2019 10:12AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I have heard this argument before. But to believe it, and I don't for a second not think that certain segments of the media are hyping it up to put pressure on Corbyn/take pressure off Tory) but you then have to believe that a large amount of the members of the Labour party have also bought into this.

So what you then have is a political party with little or no faith in its leader. No matter how you look at it then is not a good idea for anyone.

the concerted and relentless onslaught against him across all media in the uk since even before he took up the leadership tells its own story I think.
It looks like a very definite attempt to take him down at all costs and has been rolling for years now. Even before brexit.

ancapailldorcha · 23-07-2019 10:12AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But No Deal was never the will of the people. It was never suggested. By no one at all.

So why should No Deal be afforded this level of official acceptance? If the will is to be respected then surely the deal must be the only option (if only one option to be voted on/).

The WA meets all the criteria of the ref. End FoM, leave EU, end annual payments, leave ECJ.

No Deal has been dreamt up by those that can see that any deal is clearly worse than EU membership and so won't to torch the whole lot rather than face the truth

"Leave the EU" is such a capacious mandate that it's meaningless so we now see vested interests manifesting their interests (though, crucially not themselves) via the equally vapid "Respecting the will of the people" mandate for a crash out Brexit. Norway is objectively not in the EU. It's in parts of the EU but "Leave the EU absolutely" was not on the ballot paper.

This is why May's deal failed so many times. Any attempt to define Brexit will collapse the coalition of angry seniors, foreign oligarchs, press barons, politicians and perpetually vexed nationalists. As a collective, they want mutually exclusive things from Brexit so it can never be defined as a result. No Deal is being presented as the only democratic way forward because it is as vague as Leave was in 2016.

Sam Russell · 23-07-2019 10:14AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, not quite.

Johnson will get the gig, lie, lie, and tell a few untruths, and fail horribly.

Forecast: GE in in October, extension granted by the EU. New Gov revokes Art 50 and vows to never speak about Brexit again, but draws up plans to strengthen the UK position within the EU by joining the Euro, and strengthen the EU military capabilities by providing two aircraft carriers that the UK has no planes that can land on them.

We will see.

I wouldn't put too much money on that, some form of European exit had to take place now, unless there's a second vote. I think the only way out is some form of associate membership that sees the UK outside the political structures but inside the market structures of the EU.

It's the least harmful delivery of the referendum and you could probably engineer a decent grudging majority in the country and parliament for it.

Unfortunately for the UK such a scenario would see it's global influence very much diminished.

In my 'forecast' I predicted a GE. That is a second vote, and the new Gov is not going to be the Tories. So revoke becomes a sensible way out, and double down on that by becoming fervent Europhiles.

It is the only way of pulling Brexit out of the fire and regaining some of their good international reputation. Look what is happening in the Gulf. USA has refused to get involved, and now they are trying to get the EU involved - now that takes some neck.

We will see what unfolds. We have been waiting years but there is a sense of complete stasis about it.

Leroy42 · 23-07-2019 10:15AM

Tell me how wrote: »

I think we have yet to see the implications of the Brexit process thus far.
For 3 years, it seems that UK government has put all attention in to Brexit (while the Labour opposition focus on looking amateurish).

This at a time when their austerity program should have come to an end. Issues with crime, policing, education, healthcare, housing etc seem to have had no serious conversation or action from a government perspective and while you still have departments responsible for these, the news at the top surely has meant things haven't been operating as they should be.

FDI investment is down, GDP is slowing. Other countries are refusing to roll over agreements, the US is pushing hard to show the UK who is boss and what it expects.

The evidence is everywhere is one is willing to look. But I fully agree that the UK population seems almost accepting that after such a long period of austerity that Brexit will necessitate yeet another period. When other countries are looking at the other side, and even starting to talk about preparing for the next downturn, the UK seem actively want to precipitate it.

It terms of crime, etc. Crime is way up, knife crime in particular. This, in large part, is down to the massive reduction in police numbers. Schools are looking to shorten the school week to save some money. There is plenty of talk about the lack of housing, the lack of any chance of young people ever owning their own homes.

It is just that all of that, the terrible failure of TM to achieve anything, has been swept aside due to the talk about Brexit. It is why a party like BP can get such support when they offer absolutely nothing to deal with any of these problems. Not just that their ideas may not work, they simply have no ideas.

Tell me how · 23-07-2019 10:16AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

the concerted and relentless onslaught against him across all media in the uk since even before he took up the leadership tells its own story I think.
It looks like a very definite attempt to take him down at all costs and has been rolling for years now. Even before brexit.

He isn't a darling of the media, no question. And particularly those who may be of a more right aligned, conservative approach.

But, he has been an unmitigated disaster of an opposition leader who is supposed to challenge the government, and present a viable alternative to the people.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-07-2019 10:16AM

Really brilliant episode of the Irish passport on brexit. featuring
Northern Ireland Retail Consortium director Aodhán Connolly On what’s going to happen in NI and University College London professor Ronan McCrea and a clip from Paschal Donohue who dropped a serious nugget I wasn’t aware of.

Ireland is preparing a no deal budget for September, which suggests that the UK aren’t going to be getting any further extensions.

Brilliant listen for McRae especially though. Have a go

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-irish-passport/id1246162545?i=1000444975590

Mr.Wemmick · 23-07-2019 10:18AM

I am here in the UK and Brexit continues to be a farce. Kipper BJ with more of the same auld bluster and foolery - waiting for him to swear he will do right by the JAMs and end austerity, which I think he might've done already. We need the Brexit mess to end with an almighty bang, think BJ just might do it.. and inadvertently throw a big light on how much of the country is saturated with tory lies and Nigel Nonsense.

From Jon Snow.. reporting from Unicorn land.

https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/1153400045825384453

FrancieBrady · 23-07-2019 10:19AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ireland is preparing a no deal budget for September, which suggests that the UK aren’t going to be getting any further extensions.

That might be reading too much into it. I would imagine there are preparations going on for a number of scenarios. Imagine the roaring if they weren't.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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