Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Ted_YNWA · 21-07-2019 05:24PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Is this the sea border between Ireland and the rest of the EU? Why would it upset the DUP?

He is referring to a sea border between the island of Ireland & the UK.

DUP would have a fit that they have a border between them & rest of UK.

Ireland & EU is a non-starter as effectively we are out of single market too.

Thargor · 21-07-2019 05:37PM

We dont want the Sea Border either, giving NI dual status would suck investment out of the Republic.

Sam Russell · 21-07-2019 05:55PM

Thargor wrote: »

We dont want the Sea Border either, giving NI dual status would suck investment out of the Republic.

I do not think dual status is on offer.

There is just those matters wrt the 'all Ireland economy, the GFA, and an open border'.

VAT is a problem that must be sorted to prevent a smugglers paradise. Currently, both jurisdiction work in harmony to prevent VAT fraud. This must be maintained. Tariffs are small beer in comparison (if the agriculture is sorted).

McGiver · 21-07-2019 06:50PM

Thargor wrote:

We dont want the Sea Border either, giving NI dual status would suck investment out of the Republic.

Dual NI status is just a continuation of the status quo and a state which has been in place since the GFA was signed.

Hence, I don't Follow the DUP headbangers' logic and motives - special status for NI doesn't make any difference to the current state, state they have been living in for 20 years and makes UI prospect much less likely. If there is no border on the Island of Ireland and if the whole Ireland is part of the whole Ireland economy as well as NI de iure under British control there's little need for UI because this state is very close to the actual UI state. Especially with devolution and power sharing in NI which gives nationalists limited control of affairs and makes the hassle of undergoing through the UI process less palatable.

On the other hand, hard Brexit and no deal Brexit will ruin the NI economy and likely open door to the UI in medium term.

I suspect their motive is to unroll the GFA using Brexit as the opportunity, but it's a high stake gamble - they may end up with nothing and higher likelihood of UI than now. They ate overlaying their hand. Notwithstanding that if they think that an international treaty with RoI gov, HMG, US gov and the EU ad guarantors can be broken easily they are really deluded.

Stop moaning ffs · 21-07-2019 06:55PM

Post GFA it was supposed to be an equal balance open door to foreign investment both sides of the border. Ireland benefitted to an incomparible level than NI. It didn’t benefit from it at all.

That won’t change with a border in the sea, no corporation is going to invest in the UK/NI in the aftermath. until you see reunification then it’s all go.

Foghladh · 21-07-2019 07:07PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I know twitter isn’t a reliable gauge but a great many Brits seem really impressed with him with many wishing they had anyone like as capable and articulate as him in all this mess.
On the other hand he’s annoying a great many of them simply because he’s bursting their fantasy and some of the stuff being said really exposes that good old colonial imperial delusion and some outright anti Irish sentiment.
And some of them trying to present ‘facts’ about us and what we ‘owe’ Britain really make for a poor display of not only our history with Britain but their lack of education on their own history. Even recent events.

Looking st the interview and the reaction you can see the blame game is in ramping up.

With all respects to Simon Coveney I'd doubt that a great many Brits have ever heard of him. If I walked into the office in the morning and mentioned his name I don't think too many would know of him, certainly not as many as would know of Michel Barnier or Donald Tusk. That's because the optic in the UK is quite different to that at home. The UK hasn't been in negotiations with Ireland, it has with the EU though. And frankly the references to "colonial imperial delusion" are a little ridiculous. There aren't too many alive today who remember the days of Empire and I can't say that I've met any British person with a hankering to reestablish the Raj.

Lackadaisical · 21-07-2019 07:09PM

Unfortunately, it's not really painting a great picture for anyone who would like to invest. It just looks politically unstable both because of the UK and Brexit mess and because of local political issues.

They don't really ever ask themselves what exactly are they offering to people who might want to invest there? It doesn't really seem like a very attractive pitch.

BonnieSituation · 21-07-2019 07:10PM

Foghladh wrote: »

With all respects to Simon Coveney I'd doubt that a great many Brits have ever heard of him. If I walked into the office in the morning and mentioned his name I don't think too many would know of him, certainly not as many as would know of Michel Barnier or Donald Tusk. That's because the optic in the UK is quite different to that at home. The UK hasn't been in negotiations with Ireland, it has with the EU though. And frankly the references to "colonial imperial delusion" are a little ridiculous. There aren't too many alive today who remember the days of Empire and I can't say that I've met any British person with a hankering to reestablish the Raj.

With all due respect to the Brits, I'd doubt they barely know who Tusk or Barnier are either. Not the most politically engaged are our neighbours.

Foghladh · 21-07-2019 07:20PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

With all due respect to the Brits, I'd doubt they barely know who Tusk or Barnier are either. Not the most politically engaged are our neighbours.

I've found otherwise but no doubt you know best.

mickoneill31 · 21-07-2019 07:22PM

Foghladh wrote: »

With all respects to Simon Coveney I'd doubt that a great many Brits have ever heard of him. If I walked into the office in the morning and mentioned his name I don't think too many would know of him, certainly not as many as would know of Michel Barnier or Donald Tusk. That's because the optic in the UK is quite different to that at home. The UK hasn't been in negotiations with Ireland, it has with the EU though. And frankly the references to "colonial imperial delusion" are a little ridiculous. There aren't too many alive today who remember the days of Empire and I can't say that I've met any British person with a hankering to reestablish the Raj.

I don't think you need the with all due respect bit. A percentage of Brits barely know that we're a separate country and Id suspect you'd have a hard time getting many English to identify many politicians in the other regions of the UK (their own country).

.

brickster69 · 21-07-2019 07:23PM

Notwithstanding that if they think that an international treaty with RoI gov, HMG, US gov and the EU ad guarantors can be broken easily they are really deluded.

I think you should get your facts right. The UK & Ireland are the only guarantors of the GFA.

Seen as the GFA has no mention of taxes or goods being collected at the border why would it be broken ?

BonnieSituation · 21-07-2019 07:26PM

Foghladh wrote: »

I've found otherwise but no doubt you know best.

With all due respect, you're not exactly giving us anything to work with here. We know very well what the average Brit is like.

Stop moaning ffs · 21-07-2019 07:39PM

Foghladh wrote: »

With all respects to Simon Coveney I'd doubt that a great many Brits have ever heard of him. If I walked into the office in the morning and mentioned his name I don't think too many would know of him, certainly not as many as would know of Michel Barnier or Donald Tusk. That's because the optic in the UK is quite different to that at home. The UK hasn't been in negotiations with Ireland, it has with the EU though. And frankly the references to "colonial imperial delusion" are a little ridiculous. There aren't too many alive today who remember the days of Empire and I can't say that I've met any British person with a hankering to reestablish the Raj.

Can’t agree. Ireland is closely tied for enemy number 1 in certain people’s media outlets and and forums minds. And they don’t have to be aware of their British colonial imperial history to be under its delusion. Most of them aren’t aware of the history. But It’s prevalent in their society and media down to a microscopic degree and up to the macro also.

You obviously haven’t seen some of the clueless ‘why don’t we take Ireland out with us/ why doesn’t ireland leave with us/them bloody paddies owe us’ nonsense out there. But there’s any amount of it. And now it’s coming from the bbc directly if you parse Marrs language today. And many other of his colleagues in ‘journalism’ over there.

Charles Babbage · 21-07-2019 07:48PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Notwithstanding that if they think that an international treaty with RoI gov, HMG, US gov and the EU ad guarantors can be broken easily they are really deluded.

I think you should get your facts right. The UK & Ireland are the only guarantors of the GFA.

Seen as the GFA has no mention of taxes or goods being collected at the border why would it be broken ?

The GFA doesn't state that all nationalists may not be required to wear green by the British, but such a requirement would break it nonetheless.

Leroy42 · 21-07-2019 07:54PM

On Coveney interview, I felt he started to get really frustrated during it, but he held it in check very well. It must be really hard not to scream "this is all your fecking fault, stop blaming others because you guys had no plan."

Also, when Marr mentions the impact to the Irish economy, I would be hard pressed not to say that that should be troubling the UK the fact they are prepared to damage a friendly nation like that for some idea.

I thought he did really well, and made a very strong point, a number of times, that this was all down to decisions the UK will make. The deal is on the table, so No Deal is purely down to them (not that they are listening).

But whatever happens, Coveney has done his future prospects no harm at all during this.

Stop moaning ffs · 21-07-2019 07:57PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

On Coveney interview, I felt he started to get really frustrated during it, but he held it in check very well. It must be really hard not to scream "this is all your fecking fault, stop blaming others because you guys had no plan."

Also, when Marr mentions the impact to the Irish economy, I would be hard pressed not to say that that should be troubling the UK the fact they are prepared to damage a friendly nation like that for some idea.

I thought he did really well, and made a very strong point, a number of times, that this was all down to decisions the UK will make. The deal is on the table, so No Deal is purely down to them (not that they are listening).

But whatever happens, Coveney has done his future prospects no harm at all during this.

Absolutely agree.

Unless he decides to fall off a swing and claim for it this is good for his cv.

He’s the one I can see getting one of the big jobs in Europe. Way ahead of Leo

Water John · 21-07-2019 08:00PM

And he's well in with the big boys in Davos.

fash · 21-07-2019 08:03PM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

I don't think you need the with all due respect bit. A percentage of Brits barely know that we're a separate country and Id suspect you'd have a hard time getting many English to identify many politicians in the other regions of the UK (their own country).

.

Indeed - there was a poster in an earlier version of this thread whose English geography teacher friend was explaining to his Asian girlfriend that Ireland was a part of the UK.

listermint · 21-07-2019 08:05PM

Netflix Documentary out 24th July. The Great Hack.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1152652950239662080?s=20

More interesting brexit related Cambridge Analytica information

brickster69 · 21-07-2019 08:47PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The GFA doesn't state that all nationalists may not be required to wear green by the British, but such a requirement would break it nonetheless.

Who cares what an International treaty does not state. What is written down in black and white is all that matters.

Foghladh · 21-07-2019 09:09PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Can’t agree. Ireland is closely tied for enemy number 1 in certain people’s media outlets and and forums minds. And they don’t have to be aware of their British colonial imperial history to be under its delusion. Most of them aren’t aware of the history. But It’s prevalent in their society and media down to a microscopic degree and up to the macro also.

You obviously haven’t seen some of the clueless ‘why don’t we take Ireland out with us/ why doesn’t ireland leave with us/them bloody paddies owe us’ nonsense out there. But there’s any amount of it. And now it’s coming from the bbc directly if you parse Marrs language today. And many other of his colleagues in ‘journalism’ over there.

As one who lives and works in the UK I've yet to come across any mainstream idea that Ireland is Enemy #1. Or even a non-mainstream one. As for the notion that colonial imperialism is so engrained in British culture, from the macro to the micro, that the populace are unaware of their delusions to rebuild the Empire? I don't know what you do with that. How do you counter an unconscious bias of that magnitude? Incidentally is is only inhabitants of the former British Empire who possess this or all former Empires such as the French, Spanish, Ottoman etc?

Foghladh · 21-07-2019 09:14PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

With all due respect, you're not exactly giving us anything to work with here. We know very well what the average Brit is like.

I'm not the one generalising an entire country. I doubt that your idea of the average Brit is anywhere near accurate anymore than a British person could know what the average Irish person is like

McGiver · 21-07-2019 09:14PM

brickster69 wrote:

Notwithstanding that if they think that an international treaty with RoI gov, HMG, US gov and the EU ad guarantors can be broken easily they are really deluded.

The EU and the US were heavily involved.

Joe_ Public · 21-07-2019 09:16PM

The US definitely keeping a close eye on brexit developments re the GFA. Didn't Nancy Pelosi send a warning to the UK about future potential bilateral trade deals in the event of a hard brexit when she visited here a while back? The democrats have our backs, it seems, and they control congress so there's at least some reassurance in that.

Stop moaning ffs · 21-07-2019 09:20PM

Foghladh wrote: »

As one who lives and works in the UK I've yet to come across any mainstream idea that Ireland is Enemy #1. Or even a non-mainstream one. As for the notion that colonial imperialism is so engrained in British culture, from the macro to the micro, that the populace are unaware of their delusions to rebuild the Empire? I don't know what you do with that. How do you counter an unconscious bias of that magnitude? Incidentally is is only inhabitants of the former British Empire who possess this or all former Empires such as the French, Spanish, Ottoman etc?

I will simply refer you to the entire behaviour, no, carry on of the British administration since this started and in the coming weeks.
This is Their disaster.
They haven’t gotten what they want.
They’re demanding everything agreed be scrapped to give them what they want.
And it’s about to get worse. Into blaming us and everyone else except themselves.

I don’t know what planet you’re living on but it doesn’t sound like the britain we’ve all been dealing with for the last 800 years never mind the last three.

McGiver · 21-07-2019 09:25PM

brickster69 wrote:

Seen as the GFA has no mention of taxes or goods being collected at the border why would it be broken ?

Why? Because for all Ireland economy to function frictionlessly and no physical border to exist, EU membership is required for both NI and RoI, or more specifically both NI and RoI to be in a regulatory alignment and both in the SM as well as the CU. This was all assumed to continue when the GFA was signed. The GFA is predicated on EU membership of both jurisdictions. Brexit completely disrupts the predicament and is almost impossible to achieve without breaking the GFA.

Basically, the only feasible Brexit option is a Norway style Brexit with CU alignment for NI. Or NI only backstop. There's no other solution possible.

FrancieBrady · 21-07-2019 09:30PM

McGiver wrote: »

Why? Because for all Ireland economy to function frictionlessly and no physical border to exist, EU membership is required for both NI and RoI, or more specifically both NI and RoI to be in a regulatory alignment and both in the SM as well as the CU. This was all assumed to continue when the GFA was signed. The GFA is predicated on EU membership of both jurisdictions. Brexit completely disrupts the predicament and is almost impossible to achieve without breaking the GFA.

Basically, the only feasible Brexit option is a Norway style Brexit with CU alignment for NI. Or NI only backstop. There's no other solution possible.

This is correct, the EU is critical to the GFA

the European Union forms the general political framework for relations between the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland under the GFA

https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/the-eu-and-good-friday-agreement_9405_pk

https://merrionstreet.ie/en/EU-UK/Key_Irish_Documents/Government_Approach_to_Brexit_Negotiations.pdf

20silkcut · 21-07-2019 09:32PM

McGiver wrote: »

Why? Because for all Ireland economy to function frictionlessly and no physical border to exist, EU membership is required for both NI and RoI, or more specifically both NI and RoI to be in a regulatory alignment and both in the SM as well as the CU. This was all assumed to continue when the GFA was signed. The GFA is predicated on EU membership of both jurisdictions. Brexit completely disrupts the predicament and is almost impossible to achieve without breaking the GFA.

Basically, the only feasible Brexit option is a Norway style Brexit with CU alignment for NI. Or NI only backstop. There's no other solution possible.

And in fairness before the referendum that was the only brexit that was really on the cards.

Lancaster house and the insane red lines it produced changed everything.

Strazdas · 21-07-2019 09:35PM

McGiver wrote: »

The EU and the US were heavily involved.

The US involvement was huge. George Mitchell was the chairman of the talks and Bill Clinton was on the phone constantly negotiating with the leaders.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 21-07-2019 10:04PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The US definitely keeping a close eye on brexit developments re the GFA. Didn't Nancy Pelosi send a warning to the UK about future potential bilateral trade deals in the event of a hard brexit when she visited here a while back? The democrats have our backs, it seems, and they control congress so there's at least some reassurance in that.

I wouldn't want to put my faith in the Democrats - despite German and Irish being the largest and second-largest self-reported ancestry groups in the United States. Think African Americans are third.

We have very little clout in Washington unfortunately. We have a St. Patrick's Day date and that's it.

You see Irish names pop up all the time. Generals, politicians, governors ect. ect. But they have no sincere connection with Ireland. Maybe 100 years ago it'd be different.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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