Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Beechwoodspark · 19-07-2019 08:16PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Choppers brexit podcast from the telegraph is an infuriating but also essential listen.
The delusion seems to snowball and get bigger rather than entering reality at any single talking point.

Have they realized yet that they are very much the weak party in the negotiation?

Spanish Eyes · 19-07-2019 08:22PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I would worry about Johnson's temperament in moments like this. Might he think picking a fight with Iran would be his Thatcher '82 moment and offer a moment of national unity away from Brexit?

The Falkland did come to mind when I heard this.

Let’s see how it develops. The current FS Hunt will be gone by Wednesday with his insider knowledge up to now.

I wouldn’t rate Johnson as previous incumbent. He is quite volatile.

Beechwoodspark · 19-07-2019 08:27PM

My read on BJ is he always takes the soft easy option.

Lackadaisical · 19-07-2019 08:58PM

I wonder if this crisis in Iran could now potentially May's departure? It seems a very inopportune moment to be mid-PM.
(A 2nd vessel has been taken)

blanch152 · 19-07-2019 09:15PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

A lot of processed food products would be potentially impacted, and you'd be looking at either finding like-for-like replacements with Irish or other EU equivalents e.g. I don't think we'll be short of good pasta sauces and so on, but you'll have a few that are UK-specific like curry sauces for example, where we will probably just end up paying import duties and seeing higher prices.

Most fresh fruit and veg definitely don't come from the UK, almost no meat does and the majority of dairy is local, with a few exceptions around things like yogurts.

The vast majority of non-food items e.g. household cleaners, shampoos etc are definitely not made in the UK. If you look at the barcodes on the back you won't see many 50... codes and most of them are made by big multinationals or global operators like P&G, Unilever, Reckitt-Benkeiser, Coltage-Pamolive, L'Oreal, Beiersdorf, Henkel etc etc a lot of those products are made on the continent and just distributed via the UK.

Even some products that are nominally made in the UK may only be localised / packaged there.

If you take something like Ariel Liquid or Pods, the country of origin is France, even though you'll get a lot of people assuming they're British products.

Head and Shoulders is also made in France (just checked). So you should be dandruff free after Brexit.

The most at-risk products for tariffs are almost all highly processed foods like biscuits, sauces etc. Also the Irish market is the UK's largest food export destination by a country mile. It's a far more significant market to them than say China and this will have serious implications for jobs in quite a few UK industries. They have a bit of a false assumption that the relationship is all one way i.e. Ireland exporting to the UK. Trade very much flows both directions and as an export market, due to proximity, we are very significant to UK business.

The Irish supermarkets are also not insignificantly sized and should be able to switch over to continental supply chains for a lot of products quite quickly. That alone will have massive implications in Britain as suppliers lose literally billions of £ of sales overnight.

Would there be a one-off inflationary impact from getting new sources of supply?

Surely, if purchasing and shipping from other destinations was cheaper, then we would be doing it already. That means any likely alternatives are bound to be dearer, even if only by small amounts.

looksee · 19-07-2019 09:26PM

Tesco do a lot of own brand though, which presumably is at least packed in the UK. If they have to pay to bring it into Ireland could they realistically compete? M&S food has deteriorated imo, and it is expensive so maybe the writing is on the wall for them anyway.

Water John · 19-07-2019 09:50PM

EU willing to give an interesting ext. Johnson can sell it as preparing for exit, EU as further negotiations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/19/brussels-to-offer-boris-johnson-extension-on-no-deal-brexit

Lackadaisical · 19-07-2019 10:21PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Would there be a one-off inflationary impact from getting new sources of supply?

Surely, if purchasing and shipping from other destinations was cheaper, then we would be doing it already. That means any likely alternatives are bound to be dearer, even if only by small amounts.

There might / might not be. I'm hearing some businesses that are actually finding better and cheaper products on the continent. They hadn't around before. There's a lot of ending of inertia.

Some products might see prices go up and other products may still just continue to come in from the UK, particularly if sterling collapses, as they'll be relatively cheap, even with tarrifs.

There are a lot of variables, so it's very hard to really say if there'll be significant inflation.

Capt'n Midnight · 19-07-2019 10:50PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Most fresh fruit and veg definitely don't come from the UK, almost no meat does and the majority of dairy is local, with a few exceptions around things like yogurts.

A lot of meat and dairy comes from the North. But it's a two way trade so not that bad.

Here the grocery trade is
Two ninths each
Dunnes 23%
Tesco 21.6%
Supervalu 21.3%

One ninth each
Aldi 11.2%
Lidl 11%
Others 11.9%

As others have posted all apart from Marks and Spencer can easily change to non-UK suppliers. Heavy, perishable stuff like milk and fruit and veg are usually sourced locally. Many brand name goods have different lines made in different countries. Some will change price more than others across the range.

10000maniacs · 19-07-2019 10:59PM

That annoying brexiter whinger Tom Harwood is back on Newsnight predicting that the EU are going to cave into British demands to scrap the backstop because Boris is leaving no deal on the table. Why do the BBC keep getting these guys on?

Headshot · 19-07-2019 11:07PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

That annoying brexiter whinger Tom Harwood is back on Newsnight predicting that the EU are going to cave into British demands to scrap the backstop because Boris is leaving no deal on the table. Why do the BBC keep getting these guys on?

Yup cannot stand the man, peddles so much ****e and lies

I'm happy he didnt get much air time but why the BBC even have the likes of him in the panel says alot about brexiters as a whole

I'm confident at this stage that the EU would goodbye to the UK and let them rot than caving in

I think the EU is well prepared for a no deal and yes it will hurt Ireland alot but our EU friends will help us

Strazdas · 19-07-2019 11:16PM

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names

10000maniacs · 19-07-2019 11:18PM

Yeah, the BBC journalists are probably so sick of Brexit they want it sorted, deal or no deal. They have picked their horse and it ain't remain.

Strazdas · 19-07-2019 11:21PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

That annoying brexiter whinger Tom Harwood is back on Newsnight predicting that the EU are going to cave into British demands to scrap the backstop because Boris is leaving no deal on the table. Why do the BBC keep getting these guys on?

Given that Johnson's cabinet and negotiating team looks like it will be even worse and more inept than May's one, I would say the chances of the EU offering them any major concessions are absolutely zero.

Water John · 19-07-2019 11:28PM

Yeah, it looks like the UK will have left by the 31st Oct, but not really. Schrodinger cat comes to mind.

10000maniacs · 19-07-2019 11:47PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names

David Davis's Brexit manifesto.
"Our trade will almost certainly continue with the EU on similar to current circumstances. In the highly improbable event that it will not, we can accommodate that with domestic policies using the money released by Brexit, the independence dividend.”

54and56 · 20-07-2019 12:12AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names

Please let him get the Chancellor job. Nothing bites harder or faster than financial reality.

Stop moaning ffs · 20-07-2019 10:08AM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Have they realized yet that they are very much the weak party in the negotiation?

Absolutely not. But it’s glaring how the language being used has changed and the declamatory statements of easy glorious victory are no longer present.

ancapailldorcha · 20-07-2019 10:12AM

Topnotch, please read the charter before posting here again.

Call me Al · 20-07-2019 10:21AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Absolutely not. But it’s glaring how the language being used has changed and the declamatory statements of easy glorious victory are no longer present.

I think such was their lack of understanding and inflated level of self-belief they fully believed they'd get their cake when they started out in this process.

But when i hear David Davis spouting on about them needing to believe enough I think the penny has dropped with him. That's where the rhetoric has arrived at. Deep down he knows they are not in control of a destiny to anything positive. That choice is out of their hands. They can only pull the plug that brings them over a cliff.
He just can't bring himself to say it. British stiff upper lip and all that nonsense.

amacca · 20-07-2019 10:51AM

Call me Al wrote: »

I think such was their lack of understanding and inflated level of self-belief they fully believed they'd get their cake when they started out in this process.

But when i hear David Davis spouting on about them needing to believe enough I think the penny has dropped with him. That's where the rhetoric has arrived at. Deep down he knows they are not in control of a destiny to anything positive. That choice is out of their hands. They can only pull the plug that brings them over a cliff.
He just can't bring himself to say it. British stiff upper lip and all that nonsense.

A significant proportion of the population might be that insular (hence brexit) but I'd have a hard time believing most of those politicians can't smell their own so to speak.

I think some might sniff personal opportunity in Brexit if they could precipitate it (either in a business sense or political ambition) but most of them realised from the start the position they were in ..... or should I say the position those less fortunate than them would be in, they'll never get the brunt of the economic consequences of brexit

It's a bubble where their personal pockets/lives don't stand to be impacted not one where their brains have completely ceased to function.

Sam Russell · 20-07-2019 10:57AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names

Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall.

If the new cabinet does not have places for remain minded Tories, they will find places for themselves in opposition from either the Gov bench or they will cross the floor of the house.

Reality means either the new PM realises this or the new PM will very soon become the previous PM.

The Iran business might actually intervene and give TM a little more time.

Strazdas · 20-07-2019 01:29PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall.

If the new cabinet does not have places for remain minded Tories, they will find places for themselves in opposition from either the Gov bench or they will cross the floor of the house.

Reality means either the new PM realises this or the new PM will very soon become the previous PM.

The Iran business might actually intervene and give TM a little more time.

The article speaks of David Davis as Foreign Secretary or Chancellor and a big Treasury job for Rees-Mogg.

A Shropshire Lad · 20-07-2019 01:43PM

Interestingly the markets are favouring a General Election to happen before Brexit happens
I wonder where a General Election in the UK would leave Brexit now. There would almost certainly be no overall majority party, so a coalition of chaos probably, with no nearer end in sight to the Brexit saga.

Joe_ Public · 20-07-2019 01:51PM

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Interestingly the markets are favouring a General Election to happen before Brexit happens
I wonder where a General Election in the UK would leave Brexit now. There would almost certainly be no overall majority party, so a coalition of chaos probably, with no nearer end in sight to the Brexit saga.

Early GE looks unavoidable to me anyway, unless Johnson has some trick up his sleeve which i doubt. Its hardly a great choice for the hard brexiteers, but what good choices do they have anyway? They're always telling us about Johnson the great campaigner who is the only one who can save the party, so lets see him get out there and earn his spurs.

Stop moaning ffs · 20-07-2019 01:51PM

Does it happen by default if there’s no majority ?

Strazdas · 20-07-2019 01:57PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Does it happen by default if there’s no majority ?

Not by default, no....I believe a PM has to actually call a GE, it cannot happen unless he / she does so

Leroy42 · 20-07-2019 02:23PM

Johnsons cabinet will be made up entirely of Brexiteers. TM, badly, tried the both sides approach and the cabinet tore itself apart. All the key positions at the very least will be hard Brexiteers.

Mainly because that is where Johnson has got his support from.

I do find it rather fascinating the comments from EU leaders the last few days. Nothing actually any different from before, but leaving more room for interpretation. IMO the EU are seeing the political mood in the UK, seeing that Johnson basically promised to Brexit by 31 Oct but HoC also getting ready to fight No Deal, and are looking for a way to give Johnson a 'Win' that he can sell.

Of course it won't fundamentally change anything but it gives Johnson the appearance of getting something whilst avoiding No Deal.

Zubeneschamali · 20-07-2019 02:29PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I do find it rather fascinating the comments from EU leaders the last few days. Nothing actually any different from before, but leaving more room for interpretation. IMO the EU are seeing the political mood in the UK, seeing that Johnson basically promised to Brexit by 31 Oct but HoC also getting ready to fight No Deal, and are looking for a way to give Johnson a 'Win' that he can sell.

You could look at it that way, or they could be motivating Remain/Soft Brexiters to get their act together and give Johnson the instant heave-ho.

Strazdas · 20-07-2019 02:33PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Johnsons cabinet will be made up entirely of Brexiteers. TM, badly, tried the both sides approach and the cabinet tore itself apart. All the key positions at the very least will be hard Brexiteers.

Mainly because that is where Johnson has got his support from.

I do find it rather fascinating the comments from EU leaders the last few days. Nothing actually any different from before, but leaving more room for interpretation. IMO the EU are seeing the political mood in the UK, seeing that Johnson basically promised to Brexit by 31 Oct but HoC also getting ready to fight No Deal, and are looking for a way to give Johnson a 'Win' that he can sell.

Of course it won't fundamentally change anything but it gives Johnson the appearance of getting something whilst avoiding No Deal.

A hard Brexit government may not be the nirvana that Leave voters imagine. They are rapidly running out of time and options and there might be no hiding place for a government full of hard Brexiteers.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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