Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2 · 19-07-2019 01:57PM

What is stopping him dropping some of TM's stupidly limiting red lines?

Stop moaning ffs · 19-07-2019 02:02PM

lawred2 wrote: »

What is stopping him dropping some of TM's stupidly limiting red lines?

I would hope he’d agree to the border in the sea and special status that’s on offer for NI. Only the DUP feel threatened and objecting to that.
Their British identity threatened so easily by some livestock in transit.
You couldn’t make it up.

Sam Russell · 19-07-2019 02:35PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I would hope he’d agree to the border in the sea and special status that’s on offer for NI. Only the DUP feel threatened and objecting to that.
Their British identity threatened so easily by some livestock in transit.
You couldn’t make it up.

Would the DUP be able to keep their blood red lines if faced with the threat of (1) a border poll, or (2) an assembly election called now, or (3) a recalculation of the UK subvention to NI.

I am not sure which would be worse. Perhaps he could do all three.

Stop moaning ffs · 19-07-2019 02:46PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Would the DUP be able to keep their blood red lines if faced with the threat of (1) a border poll, or (2) an assembly election called now, or (3) a recalculation of the UK subvention to NI.

I am not sure which would be worse. Perhaps he could do all three.

It sounds like tin foil hat stuff but there’s been a lot of stuff in sequence quite quickly that suggests a border poll is being organised through back channels.
The marriage equality and abortion amendments going through parliament effectively FU DUP
Coveney meeting regularly with SoS in NI
HSE being broken back down into regional health boards.

Whatever way this all shakes out the DUP are going to be punished by Johnson and the Tories or whatever coalition forms after the next GE.

Matter of time before the tabloids in tandem turn the focus onto any fo we spend £11 billion a year of NI too.

The whole of NI wants the backstop apart from the DUP. They’re ignoring their main backers who have withdrawn support apparently.

Events are moving on without the DUP owing to their intransigence and they’ll s on be made to suffer. And that’s exactly what’s they deserve.

They’re holding this whole show up and Johnson especially won’t think twice about sacrificing them because he knows even if they’re pull support he’ll have delivered brexit and it’ll see him reinstalled as pm post brexit

Water John · 19-07-2019 02:50PM

Johnson losing the DUP could continue with a minority Govn't. It would require all others to align to bring it down.

Zubeneschamali · 19-07-2019 03:02PM

Water John wrote: »

Johnson losing the DUP could continue with a minority Govn't. It would require all others to align to bring it down.

Not only would all the others line up, Johnson will lose tens of Tories if he goes for No Deal.

trellheim · 19-07-2019 03:15PM

Boris Johnson is teflon

He remained Foreign Secretary until he resigned, remember - he was not pushed out or fired.

This despite an atrocious performance in the job, and in his own constituency of Uxbridge being elected on opposition to a 3rd Heathrow runway eloping to Afghanistan on the day of said runway vote.

Yet he remains MP.

Boris will like trump, be the bad smell we cant get rid of.

Inquitus · 19-07-2019 03:41PM

So the winner will be announced on the 23rd July, which is Tues of next week, voting closes on the 22nd and then counting begins. Interesting times, interesting times.......

BluePlanet · 19-07-2019 04:33PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Would the DUP be able to keep their blood red lines if faced with the threat of (1) a border poll, or (2) an assembly election called now, or (3) a recalculation of the UK subvention to NI.

I am not sure which would be worse. Perhaps he could do all three.

I think we are underestimating the tribal loyalties at play here.

While a few Tories have suggested threatening Ireland over the border, i have yet to hear one threaten the DUP as you suggest, despite that you correctly point out they have some leverage there.

20silkcut · 19-07-2019 04:56PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It sounds like tin foil hat stuff but there’s been a lot of stuff in sequence quite quickly that suggests a border poll is being organised through back channels.
The marriage equality and abortion amendments going through parliament effectively FU DUP
Coveney meeting regularly with SoS in NI
HSE being broken back down into regional health boards.

Whatever way this all shakes out the DUP are going to be punished by Johnson and the Tories or whatever coalition forms after the next GE.

Matter of time before the tabloids in tandem turn the focus onto any fo we spend £11 billion a year of NI too.

The whole of NI wants the backstop apart from the DUP. They’re ignoring their main backers who have withdrawn support apparently.

Events are moving on without the DUP owing to their intransigence and they’ll s on be made to suffer. And that’s exactly what’s they deserve.

They’re holding this whole show up and Johnson especially won’t think twice about sacrificing them because he knows even if they’re pull support he’ll have delivered brexit and it’ll see him reinstalled as pm post brexit

Scotland would like some of that backstop too I’m sure. It’s more remain than NI. How would you placate them.
The EU would have to refuse to recognize or foster any push for Scottish independence as part of the deal??

Lackadaisical · 19-07-2019 05:24PM

Well, if Catalonia's anything to go by, the EU isn't likely to foster or recognise Scottish independence unless the UK does.

The situation with Northern Ireland's quite unique as it's basically one of the success stories of the EU in dealing with physical conflict. It's far from a normal region and that's why the EU was willing to make major concessions to allowing some kind of special customs status. The DUP effectively turned their noses up at that and drew 'blood red lines', hence the problem with the UK-wide Backstop.

Capt'n Midnight · 19-07-2019 05:43PM

Water John wrote: »

Johnson losing the DUP could continue with a minority Govn't. It would require all others to align to bring it down.

You mean like they did in multiple votes ?

There's Tories who'd vote against the whip so it doesn't need all others.
Safe seat Tories don't have to worry about getting re-elected.

Labour could buy the SNP by offering independence.

Northern Ireland is 10 votes against them, vs maybe one for, and the SDLP took down a labour government before so reunification works for Labour. And for the Tories who feel £10Bn a year could be spent better.

Leroy42 · 19-07-2019 05:50PM

Labour has a number of MP's that will vote for Brexit, and thus for Johnson.

Leroy42 · 19-07-2019 05:56PM

I see Piers Morgan is out ranting again claiming that a major flaw with TM and Brexit was in failure to prepare for no deal.

Paraphrasing a bit but basically he said 'everyone knows that in a negotiation you need to be prepared to walk away'

But this is nonsense. Its like going into a pay review meeting and walking away with no job because they wouldn't give you a pay rise. It sounds great and you feel great, until the next day when you have no job, no money and a crap reference. And even if you do get a new job, it will have gone from a full time, senior position, pensionable job to a Zero Hours contract.

And as usual, nobody pulls him up on the ignorant nature of his position.

Stop moaning ffs · 19-07-2019 06:19PM

20silkcut wrote: »

Scotland would like some of that backstop too I’m sure. It’s more remain than NI. How would you placate them.
The EU would have to refuse to recognize or foster any push for Scottish independence as part of the deal??

Eu would not encourage or even mention Scotland and it’s push for independence. That’s an internal matter. NI has been guarahteed it has automatic entry into the EU in case of either remaining in the customs and single market or reunification post border poll.
Not so the case for Scotland. It would have to probably go through the usual stress tests and process to join, Spain has said it would have no objection to it joining avoiding the whole Catalonia debate within Spain.

Valhallapt · 19-07-2019 06:38PM

I hope the WA is signed off, but I’m more and more happy to accept a no deal and let Ireland finally free of its over dependence on Britain.

Is there any thread on here dealing with the practicalities of a no deal Brexit. I know there was a discussion a fair bit back about new ferry routes, but seeing as we are overly dependent on imports via Britain, something like 25%, what is the break down on this, is a lot of it tesco/ Argos lorries or is it mainly raw goods or is it some other mix??

Looking at the shelves of my local Dunnes stores is full of British made goods, what’s the plan in a no deal hope the goods eventually come via the customs checks?? It would be interesting to see supermarkets come together around certain brand replacements e.g. we know you love mcvities choc chip, but thanks the brexit we’ve upgraded this to LU choc chip etc etc Or is it more simple than that, bringing in head and shoulders via France instead of U.K.?

Lackadaisical · 19-07-2019 07:08PM

A lot of processed food products would be potentially impacted, and you'd be looking at either finding like-for-like replacements with Irish or other EU equivalents e.g. I don't think we'll be short of good pasta sauces and so on, but you'll have a few that are UK-specific like curry sauces for example, where we will probably just end up paying import duties and seeing higher prices.

Most fresh fruit and veg definitely don't come from the UK, almost no meat does and the majority of dairy is local, with a few exceptions around things like yogurts.

The vast majority of non-food items e.g. household cleaners, shampoos etc are definitely not made in the UK. If you look at the barcodes on the back you won't see many 50... codes and most of them are made by big multinationals or global operators like P&G, Unilever, Reckitt-Benkeiser, Coltage-Pamolive, L'Oreal, Beiersdorf, Henkel etc etc a lot of those products are made on the continent and just distributed via the UK.

Even some products that are nominally made in the UK may only be localised / packaged there.

If you take something like Ariel Liquid or Pods, the country of origin is France, even though you'll get a lot of people assuming they're British products.

Head and Shoulders is also made in France (just checked). So you should be dandruff free after Brexit.

The most at-risk products for tariffs are almost all highly processed foods like biscuits, sauces etc. Also the Irish market is the UK's largest food export destination by a country mile. It's a far more significant market to them than say China and this will have serious implications for jobs in quite a few UK industries. They have a bit of a false assumption that the relationship is all one way i.e. Ireland exporting to the UK. Trade very much flows both directions and as an export market, due to proximity, we are very significant to UK business.

The Irish supermarkets are also not insignificantly sized and should be able to switch over to continental supply chains for a lot of products quite quickly. That alone will have massive implications in Britain as suppliers lose literally billions of £ of sales overnight.

Stop moaning ffs · 19-07-2019 07:11PM

A nuts and boots break down of the ordinary day to day stuff that will become more expensive or unavailable would be good.
I can’t think of any but I’m sure there’s a boat load

Lackadaisical · 19-07-2019 07:13PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

A nuts and boots break down of the ordinary day to day stuff that will become more expensive or unavailable would be good.
I can’t think of any but I’m sure there’s a boat load

I think you'll see initial inertia and attempts to hike prices by some lazier retailers but they'll have the floor wiped with them by retailers who are capable of shopping around.

I also wouldn't worry that much about Tesco being British owned. It's a major supermarket chain in its own right in Ireland and would be quite capable of operating independently of the UK mothership.

Retailers aren't going to make massive and costly changes to supply chains though until they see hard-Brexit as an inevitability and I think even then you'll see some who will act too late.

E.g. I have no idea how M&S Ireland will survive, certainly on their food products as they're potentially all going to be behind a tariff barrier as they basically import almost everything from the UK. They'd probably be OK on non-food items and clothing though as most of that's not made in the UK.

However, your average generic supermarket here should be OK once they retune things a bit. Most of the fashion retailers and so on are also capable of just moving Ireland into the Benelux or French region or something like that for supply. The majority of them have presence around Europe, not just in the UK.

Joe_ Public · 19-07-2019 07:13PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Labour has a number of MP's that will vote for Brexit, and thus for Johnson.

From what i've read there are somewhere in the region of 5-6 Labour mps who could support Johnson in a vote of confidence and thus help the no deal cause. Kate Hoey is an absolute cert and Sarah Champion and Caroline Flint have both hinted at it. I've heard Denis Skinners name mentioned too, but we're surely plunging through the deepest rabbit hole to imagine the beast of so many hard left battles of the past voting to help prop up a right wing tory eton oxbridge bumpkin. I just cant see that, but in this climate you never know.

On the other side, i'm wager you could hang your hat on Guto Bebb voting to take the pm down if he gets the chance. He's retiring, hates brexit, hates Johnson even more so he'll vote no confidence with relish. Dominic Grieve wont be found wanting either and I'd suspect Margot James (though in a 70% Leave voting constituency) will stay the course as well. When it comes down to it, i'd definitely fancy more Conservatives rebelling than Labour.

Johnson could avoid the risk of avoiding a humiliating defeat by calling an early election. Think this must be a definite possibility now.

Indestructable · 19-07-2019 07:17PM

Just have to give credit to our own politicians who have played a blinder on Brexit so far. Credit to Simon Coveney and Helen Mcentee today again.
They may be average enough on home issues but they honestly have done us proud in these horrific negotiations so far.

Bit cynical · 19-07-2019 07:18PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see Piers Morgan is out ranting again claiming that a major flaw with TM and Brexit was in failure to prepare for no deal.

Paraphrasing a bit but basically he said 'everyone knows that in a negotiation you need to be prepared to walk away'

But this is nonsense. Its like going into a pay review meeting and walking away with no job because they wouldn't give you a pay rise.

I'm not sure that makes sense. Walking away with no job if the negotiation fails is more like not preparing for no deal. The correct analogy of full preparation for no deal would be having an alternative job lined up.

Piers Morgan is correct. You do need to be fully prepared for the situation where the deal falls through. Otherwise you don't have leverage and your counterparts can take advantage.

Spanish Eyes · 19-07-2019 07:36PM

So a diversion appears in a timely fashion.

UK OIL tanker seized by Iran earlier. I wonder what the fallout from that will be. Nothing or something for new PM to divert attention away from No Deal?

Valhallapt · 19-07-2019 07:43PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

A lot of processed food products would be potentially impacted, and you'd be looking at either finding like-for-like replacements with Irish or other EU equivalents e.g. I don't think we'll be short of good pasta sauces and so on, but you'll have a few that are UK-specific like curry sauces for example, where we will probably just end up paying import duties and seeing higher prices.

Most fresh fruit and veg definitely don't come from the UK, almost no meat does and the majority of dairy is local, with a few exceptions around things like yogurts.

The vast majority of non-food items e.g. household cleaners, shampoos etc are definitely not made in the UK. If you look at the barcodes on the back you won't see many 50... codes and most of them are made by big multinationals or global operators like P&G, Unilever, Reckitt-Benkeiser, Coltage-Pamolive, L'Oreal, Beiersdorf, Henkel etc etc a lot of those products are made on the continent and just distributed via the UK.

Even some products that are nominally made in the UK may only be localised / packaged there.

If you take something like Ariel Liquid or Pods, the country of origin is France, even though you'll get a lot of people assuming they're British products.

Head and Shoulders is also made in France (just checked). So you should be dandruff free after Brexit.

The most at-risk products for tariffs are almost all highly processed foods like biscuits, sauces etc. Also the Irish market is the UK's largest food export destination by a country mile. It's a far more significant market to them than say China and this will have serious implications for jobs in quite a few UK industries. They have a bit of a false assumption that the relationship is all one way i.e. Ireland exporting to the UK. Trade very much flows both directions and as an export market, due to proximity, we are very significant to UK business.

The Irish supermarkets are also not insignificantly sized and should be able to switch over to continental supply chains for a lot of products quite quickly. That alone will have massive implications in Britain as suppliers lose literally billions of £ of sales overnight.

Very informative thank you.

Valhallapt · 19-07-2019 07:44PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

A lot of processed food products would be potentially impacted, and you'd be looking at either finding like-for-like replacements with Irish or other EU equivalents e.g. I don't think we'll be short of good pasta sauces and so on, but you'll have a few that are UK-specific like curry sauces for example, where we will probably just end up paying import duties and seeing higher prices.

Most fresh fruit and veg definitely don't come from the UK, almost no meat does and the majority of dairy is local, with a few exceptions around things like yogurts.

The vast majority of non-food items e.g. household cleaners, shampoos etc are definitely not made in the UK. If you look at the barcodes on the back you won't see many 50... codes and most of them are made by big multinationals or global operators like P&G, Unilever, Reckitt-Benkeiser, Coltage-Pamolive, L'Oreal, Beiersdorf, Henkel etc etc a lot of those products are made on the continent and just distributed via the UK.

Even some products that are nominally made in the UK may only be localised / packaged there.

If you take something like Ariel Liquid or Pods, the country of origin is France, even though you'll get a lot of people assuming they're British products.

Head and Shoulders is also made in France (just checked). So you should be dandruff free after Brexit.

The most at-risk products for tariffs are almost all highly processed foods like biscuits, sauces etc. Also the Irish market is the UK's largest food export destination by a country mile. It's a far more significant market to them than say China and this will have serious implications for jobs in quite a few UK industries. They have a bit of a false assumption that the relationship is all one way i.e. Ireland exporting to the UK. Trade very much flows both directions and as an export market, due to proximity, we are very significant to UK business.

The Irish supermarkets are also not insignificantly sized and should be able to switch over to continental supply chains for a lot of products quite quickly. That alone will have massive implications in Britain as suppliers lose literally billions of £ of sales overnight.

Very informative thank you.

Mr.Nice Guy · 19-07-2019 07:50PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

So a diversion appears in a timely fashion.

UK OIL tanker seized by Iran earlier. I wonder what the fallout from that will be. Nothing or something for new PM to divert attention away from No Deal?

I would worry about Johnson's temperament in moments like this. Might he think picking a fight with Iran would be his Thatcher '82 moment and offer a moment of national unity away from Brexit?

Stop moaning ffs · 19-07-2019 07:53PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

So a diversion appears in a timely fashion.

UK OIL tanker seized by Iran earlier. I wonder what the fallout from that will be. Nothing or something for new PM to divert attention away from No Deal?

And trump saying the US has shot down an Iranian drone.

All a bit convenient both sides of the Atlantic.

Enzokk · 19-07-2019 07:54PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

From what i've read there are somewhere in the region of 5-6 Labour mps who could support Johnson in a vote of confidence and thus help the no deal cause. Kate Hoey is an absolute cert and Sarah Champion and Caroline Flint have both hinted at it. I've heard Denis Skinners name mentioned too, but we're surely plunging through the deepest rabbit hole to imagine the beast of so many hard left battles of the past voting to help prop up a right wing tory eton oxbridge bumpkin. I just cant see that, but in this climate you never know.

On the other side, i'm wager you could hang your hat on Guto Bebb voting to take the pm down if he gets the chance. He's retiring, hates brexit, hates Johnson even more so he'll vote no confidence with relish. Dominic Grieve wont be found wanting either and I'd suspect Margot James (though in a 70% Leave voting constituency) will stay the course as well. When it comes down to it, i'd definitely fancy more Conservatives rebelling than Labour.

Johnson could avoid the risk of avoiding a humiliating defeat by calling an early election. Think this must be a definite possibility now.

I cannot imagine that any Labour MPs will have any future in the party if they supported Johnson in a vote of no-confidence. That would be some crazy thinking to go there.

Stop moaning ffs · 19-07-2019 07:59PM

Choppers brexit podcast from the telegraph is an infuriating but also essential listen.
The delusion seems to snowball and get bigger rather than entering reality at any single talking point.

Joe_ Public · 19-07-2019 08:14PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I cannot imagine that any Labour MPs will have any future in the party if they supported Johnson in a vote of no-confidence. That would be some crazy thinking to go there.

More likely they'd abstain i'd have thought, so they could at least say they didn't actively support Johnson. They're in a pretty bad bind, of course, as by not voting for Brexit they believe they're signing their political death warrants anyway as they're all in heavily pro-leave voting constituencies.

When it comes down to it, i remain confident we'll see more tories choosing country over party than labour mps choosing their own careers over their party. Only needs a small handful and Johnson would be toast.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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