Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas · 07-07-2019 02:45PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, of course not. Governments should only ever hold referendums seeking approval for policies which they wish to implement (and which they know how to implement). The current sh!tshow in the UK demonstrates and underlines the importance of that.

If you want a referendum on a policy not supported by the current government, you need to start by lobbying the political parties to get one of them to adopt the policy, or start a party of your own. Then support that party and try to help it win a majority in an election. Then you'll get your referendum.

It's nearly unheard of in fact for a country to hold a referendum in a "you decide for us what we should do" manner. Referendums are supposed to merely ratify or hold up government legislation.

Brexit was a disaster waiting to happen in the way it set the people against the wishes of the Parliament

Nody · 07-07-2019 02:54PM

trellheim wrote: »

The numbers in the House do not allow for it ! Without the DUP they can not win a vote of confidence ; thats a big bet that money will keep them onside or the fear of a Corbyn administration, when you are a single issue party like the DUP

It depends on two things; a) how many Tories are willing to go against their new PMs direction and b) how many Labour brexiteers are willing to go against Labour's whip. He may very well be planning/hoping that he can get enough Labour Brexiteers oven (DUP only have 10 seats after all) to get the deal through (what ever deal he thinks he'll be able to get back from the land of Unicorns that is).

This assumes of course that Corbyn will call a no-confidence vote immediately a PM is elected because if he does not he has to wait till the house comes back from the break . Since the DUP wont know what level of shenanigans the new PM will get up to they will support the PM until later

Corbyn will ho and ha about it and threaten this and that while talking about social justice and do feck all as always; nothing to see here.

I suspect a no-confidence then will come in late september/early October as the DUP will be hung out to dry at that stage if that is what is going to happen and that means 14 days to a dissolution and GE call - you then need to factor in Labour not wanting to take up the reins and bringing the whole show down at the worst possible moment , with the only way out of no-deal being a revoke a50 ?

See above; if he can swoon enough Labour brexiteers over with a threat of cancelling Brexit if it fails...

I still stand by my earlier prediction; crash out brexit by accident due to incompetence rather than intent. Nothing that these clowns have shown me gives me any reason to back away from that prediction nor do I think they got the personal integrity to cancel Brexit when they see they can't get their new deal through hoping for EU to throw them a miracle.

trellheim · 07-07-2019 03:21PM

One thing to remember is that by having the UK government take no action , the Brexiteers will achieve their aim, as 31 October they are out if nothing else happens

(it is always harder to get action taken than do nothing)

Therefore

1. A huge set of interests - the Brexiteers - win by stymying any deal or extension
2. In order for anything different to happen, the PM must either get a deal, revoke A50 or request an A50 extension
3. All three of those options are as unlikely (to me) as anything else thats been bandied about for any number of reasons we've talked about them all here.
4. therefore Hard Brexit is by far the most likely option - someone prove me wrong !

Professor Moriarty · 07-07-2019 03:25PM

trellheim wrote: »

One thing to remember is that by having the UK government take no action , the Brexiteers will achieve their aim, as 31 October they are out if nothing else happens

(it is always harder to get action taken than do nothing)

Therefore

1. A huge set of interests - the Brexiteers - win by stymying any deal or extension
2. In order for anything different to happen, the PM must either get a deal, revoke A50 or request an A50 extension
3. All three of those options are as unlikely (to me) as anything else thats been bandied about for any number of reasons we've talked about them all here.
4. therefore Hard Brexit is by far the most likely option - someone prove me wrong !

Parliament blocks No Deal or, failing that, brings down the government with a vote of no confidence. It's probable that the numbers are there for either option.

Strazdas · 07-07-2019 03:31PM

trellheim wrote: »

One thing to remember is that by having the UK government take no action , the Brexiteers will achieve their aim, as 31 October they are out if nothing else happens

(it is always harder to get action taken than do nothing)

Therefore

1. A huge set of interests - the Brexiteers - win by stymying any deal or extension
2. In order for anything different to happen, the PM must either get a deal, revoke A50 or request an A50 extension
3. All three of those options are as unlikely (to me) as anything else thats been bandied about for any number of reasons we've talked about them all here.
4. therefore Hard Brexit is by far the most likely option - someone prove me wrong !

There was a columnist on the Sky papers last night discussing how Johnson might simply try and deliberately run down the clock to October 31 and No Deal, but he thinks Remain MPs will be very alert to this and do everything to thwart him.

07-07-2019 04:01PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Finally, a depressing story if I am honest. It's a piece about the voters who will be deciding the next PM.

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1147466437214253056

The quote from that tweet is from this article.

Well what did we have two world wars for? Fun?’ Leaving the EU is the only issue for Tory leadership voters

Seems to me that the elder voters are upset the young generation had it so well, and now they want them to share the misery they think they had. Of all the reasons to vote for Brexit, this seems right up there with the most misguided.

Strange comments when you consider that many of the "baby boomer" generation have actually had the best of all worlds when it comes to living through a period of growth that will never be repeated and many have acquired property and pensions that will be denied to future generations.

cml387 · 07-07-2019 04:56PM

If this doesn't prove that the UK has lost its mind nothing will.

The Three Choirs Festival,a celebration of music held in August this year in Gloucester, is facing calls for a boycott.
Why? Because they intend to include Beethoven's Ninth symphony in the programme.

Brexiteers are up in arms that this is also the anthem of the European union and therefore must be banned.

Source

(Pedantic point: it was music originally composed by Friedrich Schiller which Beethoven,in modern parlance, "sampled" in his choral symphony No. 9).

Joe_ Public · 07-07-2019 04:56PM

Nody wrote: »

It depends on two things; a) how many Tories are willing to go against their new PMs direction and b) how many Labour brexiteers are willing to go against Labour's whip. He may very well be planning/hoping that he can get enough Labour Brexiteers oven (DUP only have 10 seats after all) to get the deal through (what ever deal he thinks he'll be able to get back from the land of Unicorns that is).

Corbyn will ho and ha about it and threaten this and that while talking about social justice and do feck all as always; nothing to see here.

See above; if he can swoon enough Labour brexiteers over with a threat of cancelling Brexit if it fails...

I still stand by my earlier prediction; crash out brexit by accident due to incompetence rather than intent. Nothing that these clowns have shown me gives me any reason to back away from that prediction nor do I think they got the personal integrity to cancel Brexit when they see they can't get their new deal through hoping for EU to throw them a miracle.

The one thing i would be certain of - and i'm not certain of a whole lot - is that there are far more potential Tory rebels on a no deal brexit than there are Labour ones. Far more. Right now, i think we can name at least 20 Tory MPs who would never brook a no deal exit on any terms and there are likely many more on top of that. As things stand, i cant name one single hard brexiteer on the Labour side, though some think Corbyn himself is among their number. The so-called gang of Labour 26 who wrote the letter are not necessarily hard brexiteers and i fancy for some of them it is just an insurance policy to show their leave voters they are fighting for them in the secure knowledge that no deal will never happen.

If Parliament cant actually block no deal, as much as the will is there to do so, then any no deal seeking PM will be brought down, as mentioned above. I dont have any doubts about that at all.

First Up · 07-07-2019 04:59PM

Joe_ Public wrote:

If Parliament cant actually block no deal, as much as the will is there to do so, then any no deal seeking PM will be brought down, as mentioned above. I dont have any doubts about that at all.

So what? They still crash out, with all the fallout that will bring.

What happens in the weird world of Tory and UK politics is a minor side show.

Sam Russell · 07-07-2019 05:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Strange comments when you consider that many of the "baby boomer" generation have actually had the best of all worlds when it comes to living through a period of growth that will never be repeated and many have acquired property and pensions that will be denied to future generations.

Indeed. Baby boomers (born between 1945 and 1955) were born into the NHS from its inception so get very good health service from birth. They escaped National Service, and suffered very little rationing. There was no real war either. They also lived through a period of plenty such the MacMillan could declare 'You have never had it so good!' in the 1959 GE.

The real troubles started as the loss of Empire and the poor performance of the economy began to bite in the 1960s and 1970s. This is what drove the decision to join the EEC (later the EU). Britain attempted to continue its position in in the word as if the sun continued to not set on its empire when it clearly had.

It is the dream of a return to those heady days of their youth and the 'never had it so good' promise of a long forgotten GE that they are looking for - a dream long gone to those sunny uplands where unicorns graze contentedly.

It is normal for old ones to regret the youth for their youth when they have long lost theirs. However, they should not be allowed to poison the well.

Joe_ Public · 07-07-2019 05:09PM

First Up wrote: »

So what? They still crash out, with all the fallout that will bring.

What happens in the weird world of Tory and UK politics is a minor side show.

The so what is that there will be a GE to follow and a likely extension granted to facilitate it. Of course, the EU doesnt have to oblige if or when it is requested, but i think thats highly unlikely. Of course, goes without saying i could be wrong. Just an opinion.

reslfj · 07-07-2019 05:37PM

Deleted User wrote: »

... many have acquired property and pensions that will be denied to future generations.

Remember the older people will move into care and eventually die and their properties will come on the market where they must be sold.
The younger generations total financial ability and willingness to pay will in the end determine the prices.

Most countries in Europe have "baby boomer" generations retiring now and again when the kids of the original "baby boomers" retire in/after 2030 (births around 1962-68).
This combined with later small generations when women got into the educational system and birth control effectively allowed births to be postponed by many years (and for some forever)

Financially it will effect a 'pay as you go' state pension system when fewer 18-65 years old can provide services and pay taxes and the above 65 are/will be many more collecting pension and needing physical support and help.

Note however it isn't just money, money can be borrowed, taxed, or .... It's to a high degree the workforce that will be needed to work within the care, the NHS and other similar places ....

The Danish pork industry - Brexit or even no Brexit - is e.g. much more worried for its workforce in its UK factories than for the high tariffs and NTBs on imported pork, meant to be sliced into breakfast ham and bacon.

The UK is - quite apart from the trade economics of Brexit - being especially stupid, crazy or having it 'ill thought trough' - you name it - to incentivize any person working in the care and health sectors to leave the UK in the next 10-15 years - or more.

And you can likely use the same 'stupidity' words on trying to get other people now working in the UK to leave.

Leaving is what will happen when large parts of the press, too many politicians and more than a few ordinary people use foul and offensive language on and to these hardworking people.

There are or will soon be full employment in Eastern Europe and many governments will love to have their citizens coming back.

The real problem with EU's FoM is in the countries where the migrating people come from. For the Baltic countries, parts of Romania and Bulgarie and Poland migration out of the countries is a large problem. Poland has now a very large number of people originating in Ukraine and Belarus filling vacant jobs.

The countries receiving skilled and hard working migrants benefits on tther hand enormously in higher GDP, higher taxes ...

Lars

dr.fuzzenstein · 07-07-2019 05:45PM

trellheim wrote: »

One thing to remember is that by having the UK government take no action , the Brexiteers will achieve their aim, as 31 October they are out if nothing else happens

(it is always harder to get action taken than do nothing)

Therefore

1. A huge set of interests - the Brexiteers - win by stymying any deal or extension
2. In order for anything different to happen, the PM must either get a deal, revoke A50 or request an A50 extension
3. All three of those options are as unlikely (to me) as anything else thats been bandied about for any number of reasons we've talked about them all here.
4. therefore Hard Brexit is by far the most likely option - someone prove me wrong !

You cannot prove future events, there are just different scenarios with varying degrees of probability.
Deal, no deal, remain, you cannot prove either scenario with 100% certainty.
Or would you willing to bet your house and job on one scenario?

Nody · 07-07-2019 08:19PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The so what is that there will be a GE to follow and a likely extension granted to facilitate it. Of course, the EU doesnt have to oblige if or when it is requested, but i think thats highly unlikely. Of course, goes without saying i could be wrong. Just an opinion.

Extension can only be granted if it's asked for however; if the PM is not willing to ask for it then GE or not does not matter as the crash out happens on 31st Oct and all the Tory PM needs to do is stall it long enough to ensure the GE has to happen after that date to "win" and the parliament can stand around stomping their foot angrily about it to no effect.

Professor Moriarty · 07-07-2019 08:23PM

Nody wrote: »

Extension can only be granted if it's asked for however; if the PM is not willing to ask for it then GE or not does not matter.

The government could lose a vote of no confidence triggering a GE. In that situation, the EU would grant an extension.

Nody · 07-07-2019 08:35PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The government could lose a vote of no confidence triggering a GE. In that situation, the EU would grant an extension.

Who in the UK do you see having the authority to ask for it? The sitting government is still the only party allowed to ask for the extension as they still do represent the UK even if they lost a vote of confidence until the GE has been completed and a new government has been formed.

Strazdas · 07-07-2019 08:36PM

Nody wrote: »

Extension can only be granted if it's asked for however; if the PM is not willing to ask for it then GE or not does not matter as the crash out happens on 31st Oct and all the Tory PM needs to do is stall it long enough to ensure the GE has to happen after that date to "win" and the parliament can stand around stomping their foot angrily about it to no effect.

What would happen there though is Remain MPs would spot what Johnson was up to long before October 31 and would be taking drastic measures to sabotage him

Nody · 07-07-2019 08:43PM

Strazdas wrote: »

What would happen there though is Remain MPs would spot what Johnson was up to long before October 31 and would be taking drastic measures to sabotage him

Makes no difference; short of the remain MPs suddenly growing a pair and all deciding to oust the whole government AND somehow get a new pro EU government created by the Tory card carrying members the Brexiteers can simply keep forming new governments until the time runs out. This is the part that people seem to forget; there is no reason for the Tory party to call a GE (they know they would lose by a landslide) nor is there a reason for the Brexiteers to agree to one. Their card carrying members who'll vote for the new PM are all making Farage look wishy washy by comparison in their view on Brexit as well and will keep voting in Brexiteers as the new PM until they die. Hence short of a miracle there will not be a Tory PM or government that will want to cancel A50 or call a GE and the parliament has no way to force a GE to be held any more. The only party that wins by default are hardcore Brexiteers due to the default outcome which is time limited; hence all they need is stalling for a few months and they get what they want. To get another outcome requires a PM with integrity (good luck with that one) or a sudden realization by parliament what will happen and that they vote through what Brexit they do want and push the government to enact it (to date they have failed to agree what they want; only agreeing on what they don't want and only on rare occasions). That's sitting in the same category as Boris getting a new deal from EU in terms of chances of it happening.

Professor Moriarty · 07-07-2019 08:48PM

Nody wrote: »

Who in the UK do you see having the authority to ask for it? The sitting government is still the only party allowed to ask for the extension as they still do represent the UK even if they lost a vote of confidence until the GE has been completed and a new government has been formed.

There must be a GE within seven weeks of a lost confidence vote. Assuming a PM who doesn't want a No Deal is voted in then they could ask.

Alternatively, as the EU doesn't want No Deal, they could unilaterally offer a continuation of existing arrangements until a new government is in place. Of course, theoretically this could be refused by a government who has no mandate but that would be an extraordinary move that could be unconstitutional.

Nody · 07-07-2019 08:55PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There must be a GE within seven weeks of a lost confidence vote. Assuming a PM who doesn't want a No Deal is voted in then they could ask.

Alternatively, as the EU doesn't want No Deal, they could unilaterally offer a continuation of existing arrangements until a new government is in place. Of course, theoretically this could be refused by a government who has no mandate but that would be an extraordinary move that could be unconstitutional.

Article 50 wrote:

The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

The treaty don't allow that; without an counterpart asking for an extension they are out 31st Oct. If we use your 7 weeks as a basis that gives the parliament until 20th Sep. to somehow oust the sitting government and they are all going on vacation on 25th July (no chance it will happen by then) and return on 3rd of Sep. (or possibly later if he wants to delay them further). Hence your claim is that in the three weeks (or less) the parliament will somehow get together and get through a vote of no confidence? And that's assuming Boris would tip his hand that early in the first place which even with him is highly unlikely and beyond the fact that Corbyn would likely whip against such a vote of no confidence yet still the parliament will suddenly throw of all the whips etc. they obeyed previously to join together in a way they have not done in the three years before... Optimistic does not even start to cover that as an option.

Professor Moriarty · 07-07-2019 09:03PM

Nody wrote: »

The treaty don't allow that; without an counterpart asking for an extension they are out 31st Oct. If we use your 7 weeks as a basis that gives the parliament until 20th Sep. to somehow oust the sitting government and they are all going on vacation on 25th July (no chance it will happen by then) and return on 3rd of Sep. Hence your claim is that in the three weeks the parliament will somehow get together and get through a vote of no confidence? And that's assuming Boris would tip his hand that early in the first place which even with him highly unlikely...

I didn't say that they would grant an official extension, just that current arrangements would continue until the new government would be in place. Which would be a matter of weeks. Anyway, matters will come to a head well before then. Johnson will be asked to declare his hand in parliament and MPs will make their minds up based on his answer. Any obfuscation will be taken as a refusal to discount No Deal and matters will escalate from there. A large majority of MPs are vehemently against No Deal. Party loyalty to a populist versus crashing out will be the decision for many Tory MPs

Spanish Eyes · 07-07-2019 09:12PM

Both potential incumbents are total charlatans.

Remember they are only pitching themselves to 200k or so Tory members. That is DEMOCRACY, remember!

I doubt there will be a No Deal exit. If there is, the intelligence of either incumbent is non existent. But sure we know this already.

And they know this also, if they have have brains. So they are charlatans. End of story.

First Up · 07-07-2019 09:15PM

Professor Moriarty wrote:

The government could lose a vote of no confidence triggering a GE. In that situation, the EU would grant an extension.

No they wouldn't.

Professor Moriarty · 07-07-2019 09:16PM

First Up wrote: »

No they wouldn't.

Why?

Nody · 07-07-2019 09:18PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I didn't say that they would grant an official extension, just that current arrangements would continue until the new government would be in place. Which would be a matter of weeks. Anyway, matters will come to a head well before then. Johnson will be asked to declare his hand in parliament and MPs will make their minds up based on his answer. Any obfuscation will be taken as a refusal to discount No Deal and matters will escalate from there. A large majority of MPs are vehemently against No Deal. Party loyalty to a populist versus crashing out will be the decision for many Tory MPs

To put that in perspective the last two votes of no confidence to succeed were 1979 and 1923 respectively; yes they may be against a no deal but they need to move way beyond that inc. going against their respective leader & whip on the topic (as well as being accused of destroying the Tory party in the next GE and likely not be reelected as the party refuses to back them as they went against the party leadership). Now compare that to vote along party lines or simply abstain and ask yourself; do the politicians in parliament put the country or party first in general? That's the inertia you're talking about overcoming here.

First Up · 07-07-2019 09:25PM

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Why?

Several reasons;

1 - the UK would have to request one; that request would have to come from the sitting government and there is zero chance they will ask for one under either Bojo or Hunt.

2 - even if they did, the EU would be aware that there is almost no conceivable configuration that could emerge from a GE to put in place the steps needed to rescind A50.

3 - the EU has had enough of this sh*t and governments and industry need to get on with it. We are ready. Let's get on with it.

Professor Moriarty · 07-07-2019 09:33PM

Nody wrote: »

To put that in perspective the last two votes of no confidence to succeed were 1979 and 1923 respectively; yes they may be against a no deal but they need to move way beyond that inc. going against their respective leader & whip on the topic (as well as being accused of destroying the Tory party in the next GE and likely not be reelected as the party refuses to back them as they went against the party leadership). Now compare that to vote along party lines or simply abstain and ask yourself; do the politicians in parliament put the country or party first in general? That's the inertia you're talking about overcoming here.

There are 30 plus Tory MPs who are meeting regularly to form an anti No Deal group . They are already talking about various strategies. One is a bill on Northern Ireland. Another is an emergency debate. How many Tories would put country before party? In this case, quite a few if it stopped No Deal. Here's the thing. Many One Nation Tory MPs are feeling increasingly alienated from their own party and no longer see it as their natural home now that the ERG run it. A looming No Deal will be the final straw. Some will lose their seats, some may return with increased majorities as Remain voters switch to them. In fact, I think 30 is, ahem, a conservative estimate.

Professor Moriarty · 07-07-2019 09:37PM

First Up wrote: »

Several reasons;

1 - the UK would have to request one; that request would have to come from the sitting government and there is zero chance they will ask for one under either Bojo or Hunt.

2 - even if they did, the EU would be aware that there is almost no conceivable configuration that could emerge from a GE to put in place the steps needed to rescind A50.

3 - the EU has had enough of this sh*t and governments and industry need to get on with it. We are ready. Let's get on with it.

1. As I said, it's possible there could be a new government by October.
2. Indeed, finding a coalition that would rescind would be difficult. Finding a coalition that would want an orderly withdrawal agreement based on May's agreement should be much easier.
3. We are not ready. Crashing out will hammer Ireland's economy and destroy the GFA.

First Up · 07-07-2019 10:02PM

Professor Moriarty wrote:

1. As I said, it's possible there could be a new government by October. 2. Indeed, finding a coalition that would rescind would be difficult. Finding a coalition that would want an orderly withdrawal agreement based on May's agreement should be much easier. 3. We are not ready. Crashing out will hammer Ireland's economy and destroy the GFA.

An extension to implement the agreed WA is the only basis on which one might be granted. The EU isn't interested in byzantine UK politics. If the UK asks for one, it will be considered.

The EU is as ready as it will be. Crash out will hurt the Irish economy and complicate the GFA but we'll manage.

Professor Moriarty · 07-07-2019 10:15PM

First Up wrote: »

An extension to implement the agreed WA is the only basis on which one might be granted. The EU isn't interested in byzantine UK politics. If the UK asks for one, it will be considered.

The EU is as ready as it will be. Crash out will hurt the Irish economy and complicate the GFA but we'll manage.

We'll have to agree to disagree on the impact of a No Deal on Ireland. I'm sure the WA will be agreed. They will then get to work on agreeing a soft or no Brexit.

There's also an important political aspect that Johnson is overlooking or ignoring. Currently, only 32% of people want a No Deal Brexit. That figure will only decrease in the aftermath of Britain crashing out. Unless he wants to destroy the Tory party and his legacy, Johnson might want to think again about No Deal once the Tory membership has crowned him.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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