Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas · 06-07-2019 02:38PM

eagle eye wrote: »

It doesn't matter which sides win a referendum, they will not want another one. It's ridiculous to use that argument against anybody.

It's not ridiculous. Three years have passed, the thing they voted for has still not been implemented and opinion polls have swung against the option.

That is a glaring problem right there. Trying to shut down talk of a second referendum in these quite exceptional circumstances and even accusing people of being "traitors" for asking for one shows they are no democrats.

Sam Russell · 06-07-2019 03:01PM

Strazdas wrote: »

It's not ridiculous. Three years have passed, the thing they voted for has still not been implemented and opinion polls have swung against the option.

That is a glaring problem right there. Trying to shut down talk of a second referendum in these quite exceptional circumstances and even accusing people of being "traitors" for asking for one shows they are no democrats.

Democracy is a stranger in the UK (because of FPTP and pseudo devolution).

A very large proportion of UK MPs are elected in safe seats, and most are elected with less than 50% of the popular vote. The UK has not elected a single party Gov that has a majority of the popular vote since 1932. The second chamber (House of Lords) is made up of hereditary peers, Bishops of the CoE, and political appointments by the major parties. The head of state is a hereditary Monarch. The HoC, although notionally sovereign, is tied by procedures that the executive can override even though they do not have a majority using the equivalent of the US executive order - the statuary instrument - so called Henry VIII powers.

The West Lothian Question suggests that the English MPs want the HoC to be the devolved assembly for England by disallowing any non-English MPs the right to vote of purely English matters. If they want a devolved assembly for England, they should set one up - preferably away from Westmister.

We can take lessons on democracy from the UK when they start exhibiting it.

06-07-2019 03:38PM

Good news for the UK car industry for a change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1c-ir_E2EM

The boss of Jaguar Land Rover has told this programme the government must support investment in low-carbon technologies if it wants to speed up the shift to greener cars. Today the company announced a massive investment at its Castle Bromwich plant in Birmingham to allow it to build new electric versions of its Jaguar range. That should secure 2,500 jobs and will provide some reassurance that the possibility of a no-deal Brexit will be less damaging than feared for the car industry. But he warned that there could still be tough decisions to come on Brexit.

brickster69 · 06-07-2019 05:35PM

Deleted User wrote: »

This means that they have to satisfy both conditions for the decision to cease to apply, they have satisfied one condition but not the other.
They did not ratify the withdrawal agreement but they did hold elections.
So therefore the conditions that cancel the agreement do not apply, the agreement is still in place.

Try reading it again in English.

What you are saying is " they have to satisfy both conditions for the decision to cease to apply " but they have only fulfilled one, so in that case they have then completed both ?

Nody · 06-07-2019 07:47PM

For those wondering how a Brexit mindset looks like here including:

We are crying out for a strong person. It is their strength that we are seeking. Boris offers that. We want someone strong. We haven’t had a strong leader since Margaret Thatcher. Boris is the nearest and the best. He is a strong man. He is a heavyweight.”

“There is this feeling that we’ve lost our identity,” Linda says. She is not young, but she is fiercely articulate. She is well-informed about politics, and she is anything but stupid. She spent 22 years working at Carl Zeiss research, the world-leading optical lens manufacturers.

“We were the postwar generation. My parents went through two world wars and they were horrified at the EU. Your identity is sapped out of you. And in the end, you don’t feel any pride in your own country. It’s our identity, and it will get worse and worse and worse.”

cml387 · 06-07-2019 08:00PM

There was a remarkable interview with the ex-head of MI-6 on Today this morning.

Sir John Sawyers said that the the British political scene was a having a nervous breakdown, and that Cameron was very unwise to call the election in the first place.

More details here.

It strikes me that if the Labour party had pushed an ideology of the extreme left as far as the Conservatives are now cleaving to the far right, there would have been tanks on the streets.

06-07-2019 08:09PM

cml387 wrote: »

There was a remarkable interview with the ex-head of MI-6 on Today this morning.

Sir John Sawyers said that the the British political scene was a having a nervous breakdown, and that Cameron was very unwise to call the election in the first place.

More details here.

It strikes me that if the Labour party had pushed an ideology of the extreme left as far as the Conservatives are now cleaving to the far right, there would have been tanks on the streets.

There might well be tanks in the future, but the traffic wardens are quicker!

Foghladh · 06-07-2019 10:49PM

Nody wrote: »

For those wondering how a Brexit mindset looks like here including:

It's the viewpoint of two people who support Brexit certainly but then there are many different types of people who voted to leave. Just as there were in those who voted to remain. Given the fact that it's an opinion piece in The Independent I wouldn't exactly stamp it non biased. It ticks all the boxes for the readership though through its references: Old people, Union Jack, Maggie Thatcher.

Foghladh · 06-07-2019 11:00PM

cml387 wrote: »

There was a remarkable interview with the ex-head of MI-6 on Today this morning.

Sir John Sawyers said that the the British political scene was a having a nervous breakdown, and that Cameron was very unwise to call the election in the first place.

More details here.

It strikes me that if the Labour party had pushed an ideology of the extreme left as far as the Conservatives are now cleaving to the far right, there would have been tanks on the streets.

What constitutes the far right of the Conservatives? Really.

Spanish Eyes · 06-07-2019 11:09PM

We are living through a history where no one has a clue what to do about it.

They really don't.

First Up · 06-07-2019 11:24PM

Foghladh wrote:

It's the viewpoint of two people who support Brexit certainly but then there are many different types of people who voted to leave. Just as there were in those who voted to remain. Given the fact that it's an opinion piece in The Independent I wouldn't exactly stamp it non biased. It ticks all the boxes for the readership though through its references: Old people, Union Jack, Maggie Thatcher.

Anyone who feels their identity is threatened by being in the EU doesn't have much of an identity.

eagle eye · 06-07-2019 11:26PM

Strazdas wrote:

It's not ridiculous. Three years have passed, the thing they voted for has still not been implemented and opinion polls have swung against the option.
That is a glaring problem right there. Trying to shut down talk of a second referendum in these quite exceptional circumstances and even accusing people of being "traitors" for asking for one shows they are no democrats.

The only way you get a second referendum is if the government are unhappy with the result. Remember Lisbon here? We got a second referendum but we never got a third.

Strazdas · 07-07-2019 12:06AM

eagle eye wrote: »

The only way you get a second referendum is if the government are unhappy with the result. Remember Lisbon here? We got a second referendum but we never got a third.

You cannot "unratify" an EU treaty after it has been ratified. It can only be ratified once.

Governments are perfectly entitled to be unhappy with a referendum result, they are the ones who decide to hold them and the public have no say. In the case of the Brexit one, Farage and UKIP didn't even want a referendum and never called for one. It was purely down to Cameron.

Zubeneschamali · 07-07-2019 06:31AM

How many abortion referendums did we have? 6?

And Governments didn't want to touch that one with a barge pole.

fash · 07-07-2019 07:12AM

Strazdas wrote: »

You cannot "unratify" an EU treaty after it has been ratified. It can only be ratified once.

Governments are perfectly entitled to be unhappy with a referendum result, they are the ones who decide to hold them and the public have no say. In the case of the Brexit one, Farage and UKIP didn't even want a referendum and never called for one. It was purely down to Cameron.

Another issue is that governments are privy to information that the general public are not and have access to understanding of complex matters that the public do not have and are not willing to acquire.
An example is the Mercosur deal which is actually extraordinarily limited in the access given to South American beef to the European market. Yet pointing that out strongly would embarrass the Mercosur negotiators:

https://www.politico.eu/article/mercosur-europe-trade-deal-commission-scrambles-to-defend/
That is even on matters which the public could potentially understand - as seen in previous EU treaty referendums in Ireland, people vote "no" for lots of silly reasons (I'm sure some vote yes for silly reasons too - which merely reinforces the point).

ILoveYourVibes · 07-07-2019 08:24AM

When is the new pm to be decided it can't be too long?

Then they break for summer no?

Walter Bishop · 07-07-2019 09:32AM

July 22nd I believe, then the summer break starts the 24th. This gave rise to some rumours of 'Boris will be PM for one day before losing an immediate vote of confidence'.

Peregrinus · 07-07-2019 09:40AM

eagle eye wrote: »

The only way you get a second referendum is if the government are unhappy with the result. Remember Lisbon here? We got a second referendum but we never got a third.

Well, of course not. Governments should only ever hold referendums seeking approval for policies which they wish to implement (and which they know how to implement). The current sh!tshow in the UK demonstrates and underlines the importance of that.

If you want a referendum on a policy not supported by the current government, you need to start by lobbying the political parties to get one of them to adopt the policy, or start a party of your own. Then support that party and try to help it win a majority in an election. Then you'll get your referendum.

Joe_ Public · 07-07-2019 09:44AM

The basis for another referendum seems fairly clear cut to me anyway, as just very well explained by Sam Gyimah on the Sophy Ridge programme. As things stand, the UK leaves without a deal on 31 October for which i've never heard anybody say they voted for back in 2016, not one single person. It is quite possibly the most undemocratic option available of all those talked about, despite all the blathering about betrayal and will of the people by the hard leavers side. The other option is to revoke for which there is no democratic mandate either.

So, in those imperfect circumstances, a second referendum doesn't just seem worth considering, but a fairly logical choice. Nobody has to pretend it's the ideal way out, but by definition, there can be nothing undemocratic about putting a vote to the people. The hard brexiteers will be getting a chance to vote for their preferred option of a no deal for the first time. How can they complain about that?

Tikki Wang Wang · 07-07-2019 09:45AM

Raab on Sophie Ridge now. He’s as hopeless as ever. “Can do spirit” will get them through ! You’d have to despair....

Professor Moriarty · 07-07-2019 10:14AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The basis for another referendum seems fairly clear cut to me anyway, as just very well explained by Sam Gyimah on the Sophy Ridge programme. As things stand, the UK leaves without a deal on 31 October for which i've never heard anybody say they voted for back in 2016, not one single person. It is quite possibly the most undemocratic option available of all those talked about, despite all the blathering about betrayal and will of the people by the hard leavers side. The other option is to revoke for which there is no democratic mandate either.

So, in those imperfect circumstances, a second referendum doesn't just seem worth considering, but a fairly logical choice. Nobody has to pretend it's the ideal way out, but by definition, there can be nothing undemocratic about putting a vote to the people. The hard brexiteers will be getting a chance to vote for their preferred option of a no deal for the first time. How can they complain about that?

There are many cogent and coherent arguments against this fallacy. A second referendum would be undemocratic. We need to take back control. The EU are bullies. The will of the people. A No Deal will free us from regulations that kill entrepreneurship. Unicorns for everyone. Rinse and repeat ad nauseam.

Joe_ Public · 07-07-2019 10:31AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There are many cogent and coherent arguments against this fallacy. A second referendum would be undemocratic. We need to take back control. The EU are bullies. The will of the people. A No Deal will free us from regulations that kill entrepreneurship. Unicorns for everyone. Rinse and repeat ad nauseam.

And has to be said the oddsmakers dont lend it much traction either, think it was around 7/1 last time i checked for a second referendum to be held before end of year. Seems a little big to me, compared with the low odds for no deal at least. Problem is, we can all see the path to no deal, but the one to second ref is not so easy to foresee. Its procedurally quite tricky. Other than it being tabbed on to another attempt to pass the WAB, i'm not at all certain how we'd get there.

Professor Moriarty · 07-07-2019 10:40AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

And has to be said the oddsmakers dont lend it much traction either, think it was around 7/1 last time i checked for a second referendum to be held before end of year. Seems a little big to me, compared with the low odds for no deal at least. Problem is, we can all see the path to no deal, but the one to second ref is not so easy to foresee. Its procedurally quite tricky. Other than it being tabbed on to another attempt to pass the WAB, i'm not at all certain how we'd get there.

A GE would be a second referendum's only chance. If all the 'Remain' parties were to campaign with it in their manifesto then it could possibly get through parliament after the GE. But Corbyn's dreadful leadership will scupper that too.

10000maniacs · 07-07-2019 10:54AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

And has to be said the oddsmakers dont lend it much traction either, think it was around 7/1 last time i checked for a second referendum to be held before end of year. Seems a little big to me, compared with the low odds for no deal at least. Problem is, we can all see the path to no deal, but the one to second ref is not so easy to foresee. Its procedurally quite tricky. Other than it being tabbed on to another attempt to pass the WAB, i'm not at all certain how we'd get there.

Yes, the drop in Sterling recently reflects that. It at its lowest point against the Dollar in 3 years.

Enzokk · 07-07-2019 11:20AM

Some interesting stories and tweets this morning. Firstly, remember how Sajid Javid said he wanted a more compassionate Home Office? Seems like he was telling lies like Amber Rudd before him and like May as well.

Secret plan to use charities to help deport rough sleepers

The Home Office has drawn up a secret programme using homelessness charities to acquire sensitive personal data that could result in the deportation of non-UK rough sleepers, the Observer can reveal.

A chain of emails from senior Home Office officials from December 2018 to May 2019 also shows that the clandestine programme ignores European privacy laws by passing rough sleepers’ sensitive personal information directly to the Home Office without their consent.

The scheme, which is still in a trial phase, is seen by charities and campaigners as the latest manifestation of the Home Office’s much maligned “hostile environment” policy. A previous plan to deport EU rough sleepers was defeated 18 months ago when the high court deemed it unlawful and discriminatory.

Then Stephen Kinnock thinks the best way to get a second referendum is to vote for the WAB. He is obviously not the sharpest bulb in the box.

Stephen Kinnock: Corbyn should order MPs to back May’s Brexit deal

A prominent Labour MP today calls on Jeremy Corbyn to order his MPs to back the legislation required to implement Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement on Brexit – in order to avoid a “catastrophic” no-deal departure from the European Union.

In a move that further exposes bitter divisions between Labour MPs over Brexit, Stephen Kinnock says supporting the withdrawal agreement bill (WAB) is now the only realistic way out of the impasse for those who want to leave with a deal, while offering hope to those supporting another referendum.

Talk about a wolf in sheep's clothing. He is one of those Labour MPs that has been angling for the UK to leave the EU, now trying to tell you that the way to get a second referendum is to leave the institution you want a second referendum on.

Finally, a depressing story if I am honest. It's a piece about the voters who will be deciding the next PM.

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1147466437214253056

The quote from that tweet is from this article.

Well what did we have two world wars for? Fun?’ Leaving the EU is the only issue for Tory leadership voters

“As postwar children we had nothing, we only had what we worked for. You struggle and you get things,” she says, beginning a story all too familiar to anyone who has seen The Four Yorkshiremen comedy sketch, which is itself 52 years old. “When you see what’s happening now, all these youths, with their hats, and their sweatshirts, with Stussy on it. I had one come to my house to fix the boiler. He looked at my house and said, ‘You’re lucky.’ I said, ‘Luck had nothing to do with it.’ It’s all there for you to grab, but you have to grab it. I said, ‘Look at your trainers, they must be worth a hundred pounds.’ We were lucky just to have a pair of shoes.”

When asked what any this has to do with the European Union, she replies with real indignation. “Everything. Everything! It’s got everything to do with the EU. We have gone without too much, to now be piled into a big melting pot with everybody else. We want our identity. It’s what our forefathers worked for. The UK. England. It’s ours. We don’t want to be told, by them, what to do and what not to do, and paying a hell of a lot of money to do it. Everything is about them telling us, and our independence going. It’s like an elderly couple, coming to the point at which they are asked, ‘Do you want help?’ And they say ‘no’. We want our independence. And they’ll slave on. They want their independence. It is an instinct.”

Seems to me that the elder voters are upset the young generation had it so well, and now they want them to share the misery they think they had. Of all the reasons to vote for Brexit, this seems right up there with the most misguided.

trellheim · 07-07-2019 12:56PM

Seems to me that the elder voters are upset the young generation had it so well, and now they want them to share the misery they think they had. Of all the reasons to vote for Brexit, this seems right up there with the most misguided

We've been discussing this here for 3 and a half years now, since the referendum was first mooted .... theres a ton of misguided reasons !

But one thing it does illustrate clearly is that reason has left the argument, and it is now emotional ; If anyone can see a way out of this then I'm here to listen.

The Commons rises on 25 July until 3 September; a new PM will be in the chair who has vowed to exit on 31 October in all circumstances. We can nearly conclude already that the UK has wasted its extension.

No new proposals have been offered that have any chance of working and the commons did not vote to take no-deal off the table recently.

dr.fuzzenstein · 07-07-2019 01:21PM

It's always been emotional, sense and reason has nothing to do with Brexit.
It's either delusion or inability to grasp reality.
Which is why you can search through the entirety of the internet since 2015 and you will find not a single intelligent, rational, logical and well thought out argument in favour of Brexit which clearly lays out the benefits.

Stop moaning ffs · 07-07-2019 01:26PM

Piece in the SBP today outlining how and why Johnson will screw over the DUP and dump Northen Ireland in order to get brexit delivered.
I’ve long thought so too, it would make sense for him to do so.
Worth a read if you can find it.

lawred2 · 07-07-2019 01:28PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Some interesting stories and tweets this morning. Firstly, remember how Sajid Javid said he wanted a more compassionate Home Office? Seems like he was telling lies like Amber Rudd before him and like May as well.

Secret plan to use charities to help deport rough sleepers

Then Stephen Kinnock thinks the best way to get a second referendum is to vote for the WAB. He is obviously not the sharpest bulb in the box.

Stephen Kinnock: Corbyn should order MPs to back May’s Brexit deal

Talk about a wolf in sheep's clothing. He is one of those Labour MPs that has been angling for the UK to leave the EU, now trying to tell you that the way to get a second referendum is to leave the institution you want a second referendum on.

Finally, a depressing story if I am honest. It's a piece about the voters who will be deciding the next PM.

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1147466437214253056

The quote from that tweet is from this article.

Well what did we have two world wars for? Fun?’ Leaving the EU is the only issue for Tory leadership voters

Seems to me that the elder voters are upset the young generation had it so well, and now they want them to share the misery they think they had. Of all the reasons to vote for Brexit, this seems right up there with the most misguided.

Misguided? Spiteful and vindictive come to mind

trellheim · 07-07-2019 02:26PM

Piece in the SBP today outlining how and why Johnson will screw over the DUP and dump Northen Ireland in order to get brexit delivered.

The numbers in the House do not allow for it ! Without the DUP they can not win a vote of confidence ; thats a big bet that money will keep them onside or the fear of a Corbyn administration, when you are a single issue party like the DUP

This assumes of course that Corbyn will call a no-confidence vote immediately a PM is elected because if he does not he has to wait till the house comes back from the break . Since the DUP wont know what level of shenanigans the new PM will get up to they will support the PM until later

I suspect a no-confidence then will come in late september/early October as the DUP will be hung out to dry at that stage if that is what is going to happen and that means 14 days to a dissolution and GE call - you then need to factor in Labour not wanting to take up the reins and bringing the whole show down at the worst possible moment , with the only way out of no-deal being a revoke a50 ?

eeek is all I can say to that its playing with fireworks in a closed hand

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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