Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

04-07-2019 05:00PM

Question:

Whats the mechanics of revoking A50? Does it really have to be put to a common s vote, or could May just turn around and revoke it of her own accord?

reslfj · 04-07-2019 05:04PM

Some of the EU27 countries expected to be hardest hit by a 'No Deal' Brexit - Ireland, Netherlands, Denmark and France - will be hit to a large degree by an estimated fall in UK's import of farm products.

But due to the outbreak of African swine fever in China the price of pork is 30-40% higher now than a few months ago. More important there is buyers on the world market that can replace the current export of ham and bacon to the UK market.

The 'African swine fever' outbreak in China and the higher price is expected to last at least 2 or 3 years. Large sectors of e.g. Danish farming might prefer to get a Brexit 'No Deal' over with now rather than an extension and having it later.

High prices on pork often have a positive effect on other farm products as well.

I am not sure how this will play out in Ireland ?

Lars

reslfj · 04-07-2019 05:08PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Question:

Whats the mechanics of revoking A50? Does it really have to be put to a common s vote, or could May just turn around and revoke it of her own accord?

It should be revoked by the same UK constitutional process used to send the original A50 notification.

Seems it needs approval in parliament. But I expect there might be more or less dirty tricks the PM can use.

Lars

Joe_ Public · 04-07-2019 05:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Question:

Whats the mechanics of revoking A50? Does it really have to be put to a common s vote, or could May just turn around and revoke it of her own accord?

Am no UK constitutional expert, but I would assume that she could do this in theory at least. But i doubt the EU would accept it, assuming they're not duty bound to do so, unless it was the express will of parliament.

I also believe the PM can be bypassed when it comes to revocation, but it would require a lengthy passage of a bill through both houses so time would appear to be very against it.

trellheim · 04-07-2019 05:29PM

UK can revoke A50 on its own, doesnt require EU27 assent but would create a worse firestorm in uk politics (although on saying that I find that actually difficult to believe it could get worse but I would probably be proven wrong ! )

MrMusician18 · 04-07-2019 05:33PM

trellheim wrote: »

UK can revoke A50 on its own, doesnt require EU27 assent but would create a worse firestorm in uk politics (although on saying that I find that actually difficult to believe it could get worse but I would probably be proven wrong ! )

I don't think anyone is arguing that the UK cant revoke unilaterally. The question is the about the process to produce a revocation that is valid.

trellheim · 04-07-2019 05:35PM

same way they invoked it ... letter from PM to Head of European Council

Joe_ Public · 04-07-2019 05:38PM

trellheim wrote: »

UK can revoke A50 on its own, doesnt require EU27 assent but would create a worse firestorm in uk politics (although on saying that I find that actually difficult to believe it could get worse but I would probably be proven wrong ! )

You could be right but i have read that the EU council has to ratify it. Now, may well be almost certain that they wont oppose it, but i was of understanding thats the procedure anyway.

Charles Babbage · 04-07-2019 05:40PM

trellheim wrote: »

same way they invoked it ... letter from PM to Head of European Council

The orginal letter had the support of parliament. A new one would have to have too.

04-07-2019 05:55PM

Imo, no extension. Let the cards fall where they may.

I reckon Parliament would revoke or accept current deal. PM may prorogue? Parliament and that would be a fantastic sort of affront to "taking the power back" and would help in the long run. The UK electorate losing all power instantly.

Giving an extension has its merits but only if Ireland is actively gaining from it during it. Real preparation. Companies moving. Our produce getting into new markets effectively with the help of new trade deals.

But imo, just put it to them. Let Boris eat it. I don't even want the UK to stay anymore. The harder they get hit because of no extension, the better it will be for the Irish border. If we give them too much time to prepare, NI will be less and less important.

Joe_ Public · 04-07-2019 06:04PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The orginal letter had the support of parliament. A new one would have to have too.

Yes, and that was only because Gina Miller instituted and won a court case forcing the government to introduce legislation before notification of A50. There is a theory that because that legislation was passed, it means there would be no need to pass new legislation for a revocation, that the initial act will do. In the same way Theresa May did not need to pass a new act in order to seek an extension. The problem is, though, any move to revoke without new legislation would almost certainly be challenged in the courts so the whole thing would be in danger of being bogged down and, basically, filibustered.

Capt'n Midnight · 04-07-2019 08:57PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Rather amusing that Brexit was initially to happen for April Fools Day and is now scheduled to take place on Halloween: the day the dead roam free in our plain of existence.

The new date means that warehouse would need to be filled again.

except they are already full

and

more space is needed for the run up to Christmas

Shelga · 04-07-2019 11:11PM

Young Leave guy on the panel on QT retorts “but the EU is bad too” when an audience member pointed out that the British empire caused untold evils around the world.

Please can they just leave. They are ignorant of their own history, uncooperative, arrogant and rude to an extreme degree. I’m sick to the back teeth of them.

Frank Bullitt · 04-07-2019 11:34PM

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1146902512437514241

It's going well on Question Time so. Getting the plank from Guideo Fawks on...no wonder the place is a mess.

hometruths · 04-07-2019 11:39PM

If BoJo who wins the Tory leadership, I think he is capable of breaking the impasse, one way or the other. This is how think it may pan out...

For all his buffoonery, Johnson is well above average intelligence. He knows there is no way out of the current situation whilst the DUP are propping up the Tory party. The only way to be free of them is a general election. With that in mind I'd say he is watching the polls closely and will be delighted with the rise of the Brexit party.

Broadly speaking, this is a continuation of the trend we have seen over the past few months of a movement away from two-party politics and towards a fairly even four-way split between Labour, Conservative, Lib Dems and the Brexit Party.

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/04/voting-intention-labour-falls-4th-place

I think Johnson will ask Parliament to vote for a snap General Election - which they will.

If Johnson convincingly campaigns on "I will deliver Brexit, deal or no deal, the EU won't know what hit them" - he should get the core Tory vote and pick up a big chunk of the Tory Brexit party vote, who when push comes to shove won't vote for a single issue party in a GE.

Labour with Corbyn will be decimated, they won't campaign convincingly on either Leave or Remain, hence their strong Brexit votes will go to Brexit party and strong Remain votes to Lib Dems.

I think Johnson will back himself to get a majority under these circumstances, and he'll be able to whip the party into agreeing to put the customs border down the Irish sea. The EU will agree to this. The DUP will go ballistic but nobody will give a damn about them once their Westminster votes count for nothing.

In this scenario Johnson will be PM, saved the Tories, and delivered the will of the people. Job done in his eyes.

If he fails to get a majority he can make a confidence/supply deal with Lib Dems, price being a second referendum, dress it up as uniting the country.

Offer the Lib Dems a second referendum with Revoke and Remain as an option. And agree a WA variation type deal that the Lib Dems committed to support if Leave won that referendum again. Realistically this would be something akin to the current WA, probably again with the customs border down the Irish Sea.

Lib Dems would have to say yes, as it is the only chance they'd have of potentially stopping Brexit.

Then put it to the people:

Vote either:

Revoke Article 50 and Remain in the EU
or
Leave the EU - NB if our coalition WA is rejected by the EU, we will leave with No Deal.

If remain wins referendum Johnson will be PM, have 5 years of the fixed term parliament act to save the Tories and delivered the will of the people. Job done.

If leave wins referendum Johnson will be PM, saved the Tories and delivered the will of the people. Job done.

I suspect Johnson is considering an election thinking that the only way it is not his best option, is if suddenly someone like Starmer/Cooper/Benn becomes Labour leader. But there is no way they'll have the time to replace Corbyn.

The snap Tory election failed for May, but Johnson will be a far better campaigner, and like him or loathe him, a proven election winner.

If Johnson becomes Tory leader I am expecting a GE in the UK to be announced within weeks.

Lackadaisical · 05-07-2019 12:09AM

The problem is they don’t have anything like a consensus in the UK. The EU isn’t preventing them from leaving. The entire time it has been facilitating a smooth exit. It can’t magic real practical issues out of existence and you can’t snap your fingers and just make everything alright.

The British are fighting with themselves and they will tear themselves apart. There’s no parliamentary mandate for leaving without a trade deal and the Brexit referendum was only won by a few percent and was highly contentious.

None of those issues are ever going to go away.

View · 05-07-2019 12:12AM

schmittel wrote: »

If BoJo who wins the Tory leadership, I think he is capable of breaking the impasse, one way or the other. This is how think it may pan out...

For all his buffoonery, Johnson is well above average intelligence. He knows there is no way out of the current situation whilst the DUP are propping up the Tory party. The only way to be free of them is a general election. With that in mind I'd say he is watching the polls closely and will be delighted with the rise of the Brexit party.

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/04/voting-intention-labour-falls-4th-place

I think Johnson will ask Parliament to vote for a snap General Election - which they will.

If Johnson convincingly campaigns on "I will deliver Brexit, deal or no deal, the EU won't know what hit them" - he should get the core Tory vote and pick up a big chunk of the Tory Brexit party vote, who when push comes to shove won't vote for a single issue party in a GE.

Labour with Corbyn will be decimated, they won't campaign convincingly on either Leave or Remain, hence their strong Brexit votes will go to Brexit party and strong Remain votes to Lib Dems.

I think Johnson will back himself to get a majority under these circumstances, and he'll be able to whip the party into agreeing to put the customs border down the Irish sea. The EU will agree to this. The DUP will go ballistic but nobody will give a damn about them once their Westminster votes count for nothing.

In this scenario Johnson will be PM, saved the Tories, and delivered the will of the people. Job done in his eyes.

If he fails to get a majority he can make a confidence/supply deal with Lib Dems, price being a second referendum, dress it up as uniting the country.

Offer the Lib Dems a second referendum with Revoke and Remain as an option. And agree a WA variation type deal that the Lib Dems committed to support if Leave won that referendum again. Realistically this would be something akin to the current WA, probably again with the customs border down the Irish Sea.

Lib Dems would have to say yes, as it is the only chance they'd have of potentially stopping Brexit.

Then put it to the people:

Vote either:

Revoke Article 50 and Remain in the EU
or
Leave the EU - NB if our coalition WA is rejected by the EU, we will leave with No Deal.

If remain wins referendum Johnson will be PM, have 5 years of the fixed term parliament act to save the Tories and delivered the will of the people. Job done.

If leave wins referendum Johnson will be PM, saved the Tories and delivered the will of the people. Job done.

I suspect Johnson is considering an election thinking that the only way it is not his best option, is if suddenly someone like Starmer/Cooper/Benn becomes Labour leader. But there is no way they'll have the time to replace Corbyn.

The snap Tory election failed for May, but Johnson will be a far better campaigner, and like him or loathe him, a proven election winner.

If Johnson becomes Tory leader I am expecting a GE in the UK to be announced within weeks.

There is absolutely no evidence that Johnson is “well above average intelligence” - the evidence of his time in office contradicts that.

And, the Lib Dem’s aren’t going to trust any promises from the Conservative about another referendum. They haven’t forgotten their experience with the vote reform one, where they first got landed with an AV one and then shafted during that referendum campaign by the Conservatives.

10000maniacs · 05-07-2019 12:31AM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1146902512437514241

It's going well on Question Time so. Getting the plank from Guideo Fawks on...no wonder the place is a mess.

That guy keeps cropping up as a Brexit talking head. James O'Brien had him virtually reduced to anger and tears a few months ago. He seems to be very emotionally unstable.

hometruths · 05-07-2019 12:40AM

View wrote: »

And, the Lib Dem’s aren’t going to trust any promises from the Conservative about another referendum. They haven’t forgotten their experience with the vote reform one, where they first got landed with an AV one and then shafted during that referendum campaign by the Conservatives.

If that scenario in fact arose the Lib Dems would be right to be cautious and sure to seek cast iron assurances but I believe they could not refuse.

They campaign in a general election saying a vote for us is a vote for a second referendum, and then the Tories offer them one, you think they would say “no thanks, we haven’t forgotten the AV fiasco”?

I think that unlikely. Particularly if Johnson says “fine, if I cannot get my confidence and supply deal with the Lib Dems by promising a second referendum, I’ll have a chat to the Brexit party and see what they want.”

Kermit.de.frog · 05-07-2019 12:45AM

Hard not to notice that as the US celebrates it's independence day today we are having ours taken from us.

I don't recall Irish people seeking a European army, anthem, flag, centralisation of decision making in Brussels, a parliament, a president...

We are on the wrong course.

The UK will be sovereign, we won't be after Brexit. This fact is slowly dawning and we just saw France and Germany divy out the spoils of power in EU for themselves.

This is only going to get a lot worse.

I know people find it hard to understand what is happening because it is being done by stealth.

The new president of the EU commission is adamant the EU army is being created.

Will this be the straw that breaks it for Irish people when it dawns on them?

We are in the head in the sand phase.

listermint · 05-07-2019 12:50AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Hard not to notice that as the US celebrates it's independence day today we are having ours taken from us.

I don't recall Irish people seeking a European army, anthem, flag, centralisation of decision making in Brussels, a parliament, a president...

We are on the wrong course.

The UK will be sovereign, we won't be after Brexit. This fact is slowly dawning and we just saw France and Germany divy out the spoils of power in EU for themselves.

This is only going to get a lot worse.

I know people find it hard to understand what is happening because it is being done by stealth.

The new president of the EU commission is adamant the EU army is being created.

Will this be the straw that breaks it for Irish people when it dawns on them?

We are in the head in the sand phase.

Go to bed Kermit

You've been proven wrong on all these points multiple times. The country doesn't have any appetite for your irexit guff.

I suggest you close your Facebook account and the twitter one too. The circles you are moving in have your outlook hilariously polarised. And you don't even know it .

Frightening.

MrMusician18 · 05-07-2019 01:04AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Hard not to notice that as the US celebrates it's independence day today we are having ours taken from us.

I don't recall Irish people seeking a European army, anthem, flag, centralisation of decision making in Brussels, a parliament, a president...

We are on the wrong course.

The UK will be sovereign, we won't be after Brexit. This fact is slowly dawning and we just saw France and Germany divy out the spoils of power in EU for themselves.

This is only going to get a lot worse.

I know people find it hard to understand what is happening because it is being done by stealth.

The new president of the EU commission is adamant the EU army is being created.

Will this be the straw that breaks it for Irish people when it dawns on them?

We are in the head in the sand phase.

Ireland was asked. It has voted for the treaties that has established the anthem, commission, parliament etc. You are wrong. If it's being done by stealth, why do we get to vote on this stuff?

In case you missed it, the German choice for commission president, Timmermans, did not succeed. Scuppered in no small part by Varadkar seemingly.

An EU army is not on the cards as so many member states do not want it because they're either fundamentally against the proposal or feel it will undermine NATO.

Irexit guff indeed.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-07-2019 01:05AM

listermint wrote: »

Go to bed Kermit

You've been proven wrong on all these points multiple times. The country doesn't have any appetite for your irexit guff.

I suggest you close your Facebook account and the twitter one too. The circles you are moving in have your outlook hilariously polarised. And you don't even know it .

Frightening.

My view is backed up by evidence. Yours seems to be emotion.

Let's pick one.

Tell us about the new Commission president and her view on how the EU armed forces are being created.

Is she a total liar? The battlegroups are just ineffective window dressing is it?

The embryo of the EU armed forces is already there for those who care to acknowledge it.

I don't have any social media accounts. I judge the evidence as it exists and form my own view. I suggest you try and do the same.

MrMusician18 · 05-07-2019 01:12AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

My view is backed up by evidence. Yours seems to be emotion.

Let's pick one.

Tell us about the new Commission president and her view on how the EU armed forces are being created.

Is she a total liar? The battlegroups are just ineffective window dressing is it?

The embryo of the EU armed forces is already there for those who care to acknowledge it.

I don't have any social media accounts. I judge the evidence as it exists and form my own view. I suggest you try and do the same.

Thank god for that. At least when you try and peddle that nonsense here you'll get challenged.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-07-2019 01:21AM

That's your opinion. I have formed my own and I am perfectly entitled to share my concerns.

05-07-2019 02:18AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

That guy keeps cropping up as a Brexit talking head. James O'Brien had him virtually reduced to anger and tears a few months ago. He seems to be very emotionally unstable.

Link?

fash · 05-07-2019 04:54AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

My view is backed up by evidence.
.

Clearly it is not because you think "Ireland wasn't asked". We were asked - I voted yes repeatedly.

And as for the nonsense about having a scary scary "flag": every 2 bit operation has a flag 6 my school had its own flag. Here is a list of international trade organisations with flags and anthems:
list of trade organisations with flags and anthems

Seriously, how cheap and crappy an organisation would you need to be not to have a flag and anthem - the economic community of West African states has one - why would we not have one?

Peregrinus · 05-07-2019 05:06AM

View wrote: »

And, the Lib Dem’s aren’t going to trust any promises from the Conservative about another referendum. They haven’t forgotten their experience with the vote reform one, where they first got landed with an AV one and then shafted during that referendum campaign by the Conservatives.

Well, it wouldn't be just a promise from the Tories. For this to work the UK would have to seek an extension of the Art 50 period to allow the referendum to be held. That would have to happen, obviously, before 31 October. The extension would be pretty short; just about long enough to conduct the referendum. So this wouldn't be a case of the Tory party committing to the LibDem party to hold a referendum; it would be a case of the UK government committing to the EU to hold a refeferendum by a specified, and quite near, date. If the Tories were going to welch on that commitment, we would all know pretty well immediately, and the government would collapse pretty instantly.

And while Johnson could then look for support from the Brexit Party to avoid a general election, he'd have damaged his stock with Brexiters pretty badly by seeking and obtaining an extension beyond 31 October, an act for which they would certainly have denounced him in ringing terms.

So I can't see that Johnson would gain anything by this. If he wants to make an agreement for government with the Brexit party, he can do that; he doesn't have to take the long way around via a failed agreement for government with the Lib Dems which collapses because of his evident bad faith. The only reason that he would make an agreement with the Lib Dems for a second referendum is if he actually intends to hold one.

murphaph · 05-07-2019 07:36AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

My view is backed up by evidence. Yours seems to be emotion.

Let's pick one.

Tell us about the new Commission president and her view on how the EU armed forces are being created.

Is she a total liar? The battlegroups are just ineffective window dressing is it?

The embryo of the EU armed forces is already there for those who care to acknowledge it.

I don't have any social media accounts. I judge the evidence as it exists and form my own view. I suggest you try and do the same.

There is no European army but I for one would welcome the idea. We currently rely on the mood swings of Donald J. Trump should Vladimir Putin become aggressive towards us. That is not a good situation to find ourselves in. We should be able to defend ourselves in the EU.

McGiver · 05-07-2019 07:41AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I know people find it hard to understand what is happening because it is being done by stealth.

Treaty of Rome, 1957, establishing the EEC

Treaty establishing the European Economic Community

HIS MAJESTY THE KING OF THE BELGIANS, THE PRESIDENT OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, THE PRESIDENT OF THE FRENCH REPUBLIC, THE PRESIDENT OF THE ITALIAN REPUBLIC, HER ROYAL HIGHNESS THE GRAND DUCHESS OF LUXEMBOURG, HER MAJESTY THE QUEEN OF THE NETHERLANDS,

DETERMINED to establish the foundations of an ever closer union among the European peoples,

DECIDED to ensure the economic and social progress of their countries by common action in eliminating the barriers which divide Europe,

General direction towards Federal Europe has always been the idea so any incremental move to that direction is not a surprise at all. All subsequent EU treaty changes were agreed by all the member states. There's nothing done by stealth.

One's Failure to follow political developments and or lack of political engagement does not mean anything was done by stealth.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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