Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell wrote: »

The BP are a single issue party that has no manifesto, no track record, and once the issue they stand for is dealt with, have no real future.

I mostly agree with you, but there are a few things that raise some concerns:

1. It would seem reasonably clear that Brexit isn't really about the EU. The slogans like "taking back control", "our money, our borders and our laws" etc, the anti-foreign* rhetoric, the anti-establishment rhetoric etc and the parrallells with the rise of Trump and other populist movements** are all matters that are not going to go away. They have promised that everything will be better after Brexit, but Brexit won't deal with these issues, so there will still be a large segment of British voters in this area.

2. For instance, even after Brexit, there is likely to be support for an anti-migration, anti-large corporation, anti-bank, anti-trade deals retro workers party. But these people are currently sitting cheek by jowl on the pro-Brexit side with those people who want Britain post Brexit to be Singapore on Thames. We could see two different populist movements spring up, one on the left, one on the right. Or, more worryingly, we could see both tribes unified under the next big issue.

3. Because of the strategy of promising undeliverable outcomes and then blaming others when these are not achieved, or not achieved quickly enough, it is hard to see how this generalised anger, which is currently focussed on what they perceive to be the evil EU, they will need either another scapegoat, or potentially they will keep blaming the EU long after they have left.

4. There has always been an authoritarian streak in the UK. One of the first non-royal autocrats of modern times, Oliver Cromwell, is widely hailed as some sort of democrat in England and parts of Wales. Thus, the authoritarians could rise, stating that now that Brexit is achieved, they need to obtain a true democracy (which, in fact, will be the opposite of democracy).

5. As an aside, it is not unknown for parties to retain a name long after they have achieved their goal e.g. independence parties etc. Brexit could become a byword for what they are subtly representing, together with a reference back to their big "achievement".




*Foreign states and international/multinational organisations primarily, although immigration is obviously a big issue for them.

**While populism is a somewhat vague phrase, what I mean here specifically are those parties that take a mix of traditional left wing and right wing values and put them together, e.g. like 5 Star and Liga in Italy forming a government.