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Aussie dollar falling

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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    niva*sis wrote: »
    Forecast for the dollar to hit the .50cent mark for the euro next year. Pretty frightening for those planning on moving home.

    But great for those planning on going in the other direction. :D

    Every cloud has a silver lining.

    Those heading back to Ireland could do worse than plonk their money into Australian investments, keep their bank accounts and enable online banking and then only shift money back when the exchange rate improves.

    Be aware that once you move back you will no longer be able to open any new accounts or term deposits once back.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,325 ✭✭✭✭ Peregrinus


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Those heading back to Ireland could do worse than plonk their money into Australian investments, keep their bank accounts and enable online banking and then only shift money back when the exchange rate improves.
    Assuming, of course, that their powers of future-predicting are good enough that they can be confident that it will improve! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Assuming, of course, that their powers of future-predicting are good enough that they can be confident that it will improve! :D

    Very true.

    The next financial markets meltdown likely isn't far off so it would probably drop even lower than it is at present, judging by the last one. The next one will be worse I think because Chinese debt pigeons will come home to roost and what's bad for China will be bad for Oz. Still, i think it might pop a bit before then.

    AUD_EUR_2006_2018.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭ lg123


    niva*sis wrote: »
    Forecast for the dollar to hit the .50cent mark for the euro next year. Pretty frightening for those planning on moving home.
    Hi niva, where'd you get this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 304 ✭✭ niva*sis


    The rate at the moment is shocking!!! 😭


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  • Registered Users Posts: 468 ✭✭ Brianb8802


    The dollar was going quite bad at the end of June when it was at its lowest point for 4 years skirting around at 0.60, outlook was pretty bleak. Now it's back up to 0.62 after a good two weeks trading, still pretty bad historically mind you but positive none the less.

    After 10 years we're going to move back to Ireland next year and now have to toss up the gamble of transferring the lump sum savings back now or this time next year.

    I know the basis of the economies are very different but I find it hard not to compare Australia's to Ireland's back in the day. Especially the construction and property sectors.

    How is everybodies else's crystal ball looking.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    I'm an Australian who has been in Ireland the past 20 years and I can't wait to get out and go back to Australia.

    I wouldn't begin to profess to have a crystal ball regarding future exchange rates but my gut feeling is I doubt the A$ will fall further. It might if Trump succeeds in jump starting the next recession and China's economic activity declines for a while, but long term I would expect China and Australia to bounce back.

    Make sure you don't close your Australian bank accounts and I might suggest opening an Ozforex account to transfer any funds back to Ireland with. It might also be an idea to open an online share trading account via ANZ or Commonwealth bnk before moving, as I don't think you will ever find any investment vehicle over here that can begin match Oz share market dividends.

    As for transferring the funds, you could always do half now and half next year to cover your bases.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭ pearcider


    Brianb8802 wrote: »
    The dollar was going quite bad at the end of June when it was at its lowest point for 4 years skirting around at 0.60, outlook was pretty bleak. Now it's back up to 0.62 after a good two weeks trading, still pretty bad historically mind you but positive none the less.

    After 10 years we're going to move back to Ireland next year and now have to toss up the gamble of transferring the lump sum savings back now or this time next year.

    I know the basis of the economies are very different but I find it hard not to compare Australia's to Ireland's back in the day. Especially the construction and property sectors.

    How is everybodies else's crystal ball looking.

    My opinion I’d get out now as AUD is going a lot lower. The property crash is only getting started there but end result will be worse than Ireland. As we were tied to the euro, we were forced to take the pain instead of devaluation which is the RBA policy since before this thread got started. However the central bankers have only postponed the pop and blown more air into the credit bubble. Thus making the inevitable correction even more painful. The mortgage stress hasn’t even begun in Oz. When it does, it will sink the big banks. The writing is on the wall. Watch this video.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fn0UdhisePw

    The AUD will truly tank when the government is forced to recapitalize and more than likely nationalise them. It’s going to be an absolute sh*tshow. Think Ireland in late 2008. And then some. Except we had the EU to bail us out. Oz has the printing press...The Oz government went nuts with their tax incentives negative gearing and that. My guess is the big 4 banks are all one credit crisis away from insolvency just like Anglo Irish bank was. The fact only one of them passed on the full recent rate cut is telling. Get out now. If you’re converting to EUR put 10% into gold and 10% into USD as a hedge. It sucks that we are in this situation where our own hard earned cash is at risk by reckless governments and central bankers. But you have the tools to protect yourself. Best of luck.


  • Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭ Low Energy Eng


    Or China could stimulate like last time and commodity prices go nuts which would be bullish.
    Just putting it out there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,222 ✭✭✭ yagan


    Or China could stimulate like last time and commodity prices go nuts which would be bullish.
    Just putting it out there.
    That's a good point, but even then commodity capacity has been expanded significantly since 08 and the boon has been reabsorbed into Australia's domestic debt bubble.

    A long slow debt deflation with defaults, devalutions and nationalisations seem inevitable.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 473 ✭✭ FernandoTorres


    pearcider wrote: »
    My opinion I’d get out now as AUD is going a lot lower. The property crash is only getting started there but end result will be worse than Ireland. As we were tied to the euro, we were forced to take the pain instead of devaluation which is the RBA policy since before this thread got started. However the central bankers have only postponed the pop and blown more air into the credit bubble. Thus making the inevitable correction even more painful. The mortgage stress hasn’t even begun in Oz. When it does, it will sink the big banks. The writing is on the wall. Watch this video.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fn0UdhisePw

    The AUD will truly tank when the government is forced to recapitalize and more than likely nationalise them. It’s going to be an absolute sh*tshow. Think Ireland in late 2008. And then some. Except we had the EU to bail us out. Oz has the printing press...The Oz government went nuts with their tax incentives negative gearing and that. My guess is the big 4 banks are all one credit crisis away from insolvency just like Anglo Irish bank was. The fact only one of them passed on the full recent rate cut is telling. Get out now. If you’re converting to EUR put 10% into gold and 10% into USD as a hedge. It sucks that we are in this situation where our own hard earned cash is at risk by reckless governments and central bankers. But you have the tools to protect yourself. Best of luck.




    What scenario are you predicting where the Australian economy crashes, along with the property market and banks yet Europe/Ireland continues as normal? The only thing that will crash the Australian economy is a large, global crash which would affect Ireland and Europe even more. Australia has very low national debt in comparison and has a lot more tools to weather a storm.


    Just look back to the start of this thread where people were predicting the Australian collapse 6 years ago. The reality is, nobody has a clue.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,222 ✭✭✭ yagan


    What scenario are you predicting where the Australian economy crashes, along with the property market and banks yet Europe/Ireland continues as normal? The only thing that will crash the Australian economy is a large, global crash which would affect Ireland and Europe even more. Australia has very low national debt in comparison and has a lot more tools to weather a storm.


    Just look back to the start of this thread where people were predicting the Australian collapse 6 years ago. The reality is, nobody has a clue.
    You only have to see the effect on the Aus$ once China announced its stimulus splurge in Oct 2008, it rocketed.

    Essentially the Australian economic wagon switched to the Chinese car and left avoided the worst effects of the GFC, becoming in the transition effectively an extension of the Chinese economy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭ pearcider


    What scenario are you predicting where the Australian economy crashes, along with the property market and banks yet Europe/Ireland continues as normal? The only thing that will crash the Australian economy is a large, global crash which would affect Ireland and Europe even more. Australia has very low national debt in comparison and has a lot more tools to weather a storm.


    Just look back to the start of this thread where people were predicting the Australian collapse 6 years ago. The reality is, nobody has a clue.

    The oz collapse should have happened 6 years ago but the central banks dropped the interest rates to near zero. The collapse has been postponed. The collapse will still happen. It’s just going to be much worse now.

    Look at the stats pal, people can’t pay their mortgages and oz cities are full of half finished developments. The game is over.


  • Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭ Low Energy Eng


    I've seen Brisbane absorbing a freakish amount of over supply of apartments and it seems to be fine.
    Sydney and melbs have been correcting for 2 years but with recent rate drops, apra loosening requirements and government giving tax handouts, I reckon this show has some more stream in it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 473 ✭✭ FernandoTorres


    pearcider wrote: »
    The oz collapse should have happened 6 years ago but the central banks dropped the interest rates to near zero. The collapse has been postponed. The collapse will still happen. It’s just going to be much worse now.

    Look at the stats pal, people can’t pay their mortgages and oz cities are full of half finished developments. The game is over.


    What stats are you looking at? The mortgage delinquency rate in Australia is 1.5% for over 90 days arrears. This compares to 6% in "booming" Ireland.



    I live in Melbourne and am not seeing many abandoned developments anywhere near the city. I'm sure there are many in the outskirts but that's always the case with property booms. I'm not disputing that the economy will slow but I think many Irish are too quick to jump to the doomsday scenario due to the experience there. The Australian economy is a lot more diversified and most recessions are a lot less explosive.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,727 ✭✭✭ Sexual Chocolate


    From a construction worker point of view the industry did quiteten down slightly after September last year in Sydney I found and others actually believe that it starting going that way at the beginning of (ozzy) winter. Still fairly much happening though, especially out towards the western suburbs.

    However what Sydney might consider quite Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth would call a boom.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭ AngryHippie


    What stats are you looking at? The mortgage delinquency rate in Australia is 1.5% for over 90 days arrears. This compares to 6% in "booming" Ireland.
    .


    Ghost estates everywhere Ted


  • Registered Users Posts: 185 ✭✭ someday2010


    It’s tanking...


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    Can you define tanking for me, as it's up 0.95% against the Euro the past 24hrs?


  • Site Banned Posts: 136 ✭✭ rainybillwill


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Can you define tanking for me, as it's up 0.95% against the Euro the past 24hrs?

    To be fair it had dropped a lot when they posted. Started to recover after, maybe they effected the markets :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 311 ✭✭ johnnyfruitcake


    What's the near future for the dollar? Will it freefall after brexit or will it matter?

    Have a large sum still in oz, any advice what to do with it?


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    The UK is only 8th in trade rankings, so I don't see that Brexit should have any bearing on the AU$, whatsoever. I don't see any reason for the AU$ to 'freefall' unless some idiot lobs nukes at China.

    If you are not risk averse, you could plonk your money in Vanguards VHY ETF and enjoy over 7% annual dividend, paid quarterly. For my money that's a safer bet than trying to guess currency trading with a raving belligerent loon at the helm of the world's largest economy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    To be fair it had dropped a lot when they posted. Started to recover after, maybe they effected the markets :D

    With such an unprecedented ability to pick the exact bottom of a market like that, he should be a currency trader. :D

    In the preceding 24 hrs, the AU$ fell about 1 cent vs the € - a 1.6% change is hardly tanking. Look to yesterdays US share market if you want to see tanking. :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,710 ✭✭✭ Tigerandahalf


    The trade war between China and the US seems to be getting worse which should weaken both currencies. That you would think will also draw the Oz dollar lower. If there is less demand from China it will drag it lower again. No major crisis days have happened yet with bank and other company shares.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,433 ✭✭✭ mandrake04


    The trade war between China and the US seems to be getting worse which should weaken both currencies.

    Part of the Perfect storm which will send Europe into recession, Germany sells a disproportionate amount of goods to both countries and its industrial output is down 5% compared to last year. If you google they were down in the first quarter just waiting on the results of the 2nd and with likely no deal on brexit not good for the €


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    Let's face it, there is pretty much nothing to be optimistic about anywhere. It's a case of pick your poison.


  • Registered Users Posts: 468 ✭✭ Brianb8802


    Seems to be some significant gains going on for the Aussie dollar over the last few months. Any idea what's driving it?

    AUD to USD is performing even better.

    544539.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,826 ✭✭✭✭ cnocbui


    Huge iron ore sales to China and the country's near covid free state, would be my guess.

    I wasn't too far off: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/02/22/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-Rising-Iron-and-Copper-Prices-to-Bolster-AUDUSD.html


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