WereWolf: A 13 player Seer game

kitten_k · 04-07-2019 11:51AM

Green&Red wrote: »

Just catching up now guys, what happened to a noon start SK??
Nice one getting Echo, figured that when she didn’t move off me yesterday.
Don’t be apologises at all QB, if we figured it out then so would the rest, i was always going to be lynched as her last vote. At least this was when I flip red it’ll give you great street cred.
You’ll be able to go after Baggly too, he’s being weak as water on me here, you can bring up him saying he’d never bus a teammate.
In the meantime I’ll latch onto what he’s saying, that Ecto didn’t go after me hard enough, can’t see it being bought though but it’ll give ye more ammo to go for Baggly tomorrow.
I hope there’s a speed day tomorrow, I’ll be raging being locked out of here

Hail mary?

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 11:53AM

sullivlo wrote: »

It was whippy I was considering over Ecto last night.

Regardless, the point being, Ecto was defending you. Possibly a hint to you being her N0.

sullivlo · 04-07-2019 11:54AM

quickbeam wrote: »

Regardless, the point being, Ecto was defending you. Possibly a hint to you being her N0.

Could be. I know I'm good so it would make sense.

kitten_k · 04-07-2019 11:55AM

quickbeam wrote: »

And yet, one hour since, and you haven't put forward your own theories??

In fairness she did say she was going to the hospital, a bit too early to be calling her out.

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 11:56AM

True.

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 12:02PM

Another way to look at things, if there's usually a high, middle and low posting wolf, break the players up to thirds:

tusk 224
quickbeam 224
Green&Red 133
Clarabel 126

Baggly 113
Ectoplasm 91
tritium 65
Whiplashy 64
sullivlo 55

Strawberry Milkshake 49
kitten_k 44
duffman13 43
Kolido 27

And I don't want to tunnel here, but my Wagonomics conclusion would fit this theory with Whippy being the middle and Duff being the low power wolf.

I know it's not guaranteed, but maybe....

Baggly · 04-07-2019 12:13PM

Interactions analysis on GNR.

Conclusions:

Avoiding talking to Kitten, Kolido and Whipper. This could be attributed to them not being around much, however.

Clara has been around and not many interactions there.

Conceivable he has bussed a teammate somewhat, and if thats the case; QB and myself would be the candidates. Dont mind saying this as i think the vote analysis helps me out here.

Big cool off on chat with QB yesterday. 30 posts between them D1, 3 yesterday.

Smaller post sample size but same with Duffman, down from 7 posts D1 to 4 in D2.

Conversely, big increase in posts between he and i. 5 on d1, 22 on d2.

Need to combine this with vote analysis now.

Baggly · 04-07-2019 12:14PM

Woops here is the analysis file.

Baggly · 04-07-2019 12:18PM

Combined with the vote analysis, im happier with a duff/whip/GNR team.

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 12:19PM

I can honestly say, I've had pretend fights with team-mates before, but I could not have had the arguments that I had with GnR and been his team-mate. Maybe others could, but I don't have the acting chops for that, I guarantee it!

Baggly · 04-07-2019 12:20PM

Thoughts on GNRs 'mispost'?

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 12:20PM

That table is super-impressive!

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 12:21PM

Baggly wrote: »

Thoughts on GNRs 'mispost'?

I've given mine.

Baggly · 04-07-2019 12:22PM

quickbeam wrote: »

Hee, hee!! One hour later, and this is the best the wolves have come up with. A fake "posted in the wrong forum" post. Must do better next time, GnR!

quickbeam wrote: »

I've given mine.

The above? Go deeper QB.

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 12:22PM

Also, remember GnR said there was 100% a wolf in me, Strawbs and Trit??

Not sure if that helps my cause or not, but pointing it out there anyway. With Strawbs and Trit gone, would he he really have had a team-mate as a 100% wolf?

Baggly · 04-07-2019 12:23PM

quickbeam wrote: »

That table is super-impressive!

Thank you. PITA to go through the thread, but its made me happier with some of my thoughts on Duffers. And whipper wasnt on my radar before now, so happier to go with your vote analysis for now.

Pending me doing an analysis without you cleared, of course.

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 12:24PM

Baggly wrote: »

The above? Go deeper QB.

He mentioned you and me. I know I'm good. And my wagonomics cleared you, so it's pure bullsh!t.

I now have to head out. I'll be back in a few hours.

Baggly · 04-07-2019 12:27PM

The question on my mind is whether its a bluff or a double bluff with regards to you QB.

Is he trying to get us at each other (i.e. baiting me to go after you when you are really vilage), is he trying to make people think im a wolf since he has effectively said im not a wolf (at face value) or are both of us village, and he is trying to deflect from other wolves coming under heat. Or are you really a wolf and he is banking on us dismissing you since he has you as wolf.

I shall muse on this over lunch. I think ill be going off my analysis rather than this post. Worth considering the above, though.

kitten_k · 04-07-2019 12:27PM

Baggly wrote: »

Thank you. PITA to go through the thread, but its made me happier with some of my thoughts on Duffers. And whipper wasnt on my radar before now, so happier to go with your vote analysis for now.

Pending me doing an analysis without you cleared, of course.

You must have the patience of a saint to do that!

The thread is too quiet for my liking considering the events of this morning and the likelihood of us having caught a wolf. BR strategising or just laying low?

kitten_k · 04-07-2019 12:41PM

Baggly wrote: »

The question on my mind is whether its a bluff or a double bluff with regards to you QB.

Is he trying to get us at each other (i.e. baiting me to go after you when you are really vilage), is he trying to make people think im a wolf since he has effectively said im not a wolf (at face value) or are both of us village, and he is trying to deflect from other wolves coming under heat. Or are you really a wolf and he is banking on us dismissing you since he has you as wolf.

I shall muse on this over lunch. I think ill be going off my analysis rather than this post. Worth considering the above, though.

So your query is did he include QB so that we would automatically clear her? Can you see them being on a team? I am not sure if I have seen two wolves pretend to fight that much on thread but its not impossible.

Clarabel · 04-07-2019 12:42PM

quickbeam wrote: »

He mentioned you and me. I know I'm good. And my wagonomics cleared you, so it's pure bullsh!t.

I now have to head out. I'll be back in a few hours.

If you and Bags are both werewolf I am quitting and never playing again.

But my spider senses are crawling here.

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 12:47PM

kitten_k wrote: »

You must have the patience of a saint to do that!

The thread is too quiet for my liking considering the events of this morning and the likelihood of us having caught a wolf. BR strategising or just laying low?

Definitely backroom strategising for GnR to come up with that post. Had to be some input from at least one of the other wolves.

Don't know why villagers are so quiet though. Like I said earlier, just happy we caught a wolf and not bothered to find the others today?

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 12:49PM

Baggly wrote: »

The question on my mind is whether its a bluff or a double bluff with regards to you QB.

Is he trying to get us at each other (i.e. baiting me to go after you when you are really vilage), is he trying to make people think im a wolf since he has effectively said im not a wolf (at face value) or are both of us village, and he is trying to deflect from other wolves coming under heat. Or are you really a wolf and he is banking on us dismissing you since he has you as wolf.

I shall muse on this over lunch. I think ill be going off my analysis rather than this post. Worth considering the above, though.

For my part, I’m happy to have you as Villager. Not Lock Clear but certainly Villager for the foreseeable future. That’s based on my own analysis and you being named in GnR’s post. What you do with me is up to you.

quickbeam · 04-07-2019 12:50PM

quickbeam wrote: »

Which also reminds me, he never answered this, and he's hardly likely to either, now that it could potentially be used to find his teammates. But can anyone else find it please?

Anyone found GnR’s FFA1? Sully, you compiled the votes? Bags, you recently looked at all his posts. Anyone?

kitten_k · 04-07-2019 12:52PM

Clarabel wrote: »

If you and Bags are both werewolf I am quitting and never playing again.

But my spider senses are crawling here.

We all know that once you become a WW player, there is no leaving :rolleyes:

kitten_k · 04-07-2019 12:53PM

quickbeam wrote: »

Definitely backroom strategising for GnR to come up with that post. Had to be some input from at least one of the other wolves.

Don't know why villagers are so quiet though. Like I said earlier, just happy we caught a wolf and not bothered to find the others today?

But it is just a wasted day. Just coz we have caught one doesn't mean we can't spend today looking for the others.

@sKeith - is tomorrow a speed day?

Green&Red · 04-07-2019 01:19PM

Have you ever considered the idea that it’s a triple bluff?

sullivlo · 04-07-2019 01:45PM

Green&Red wrote: »

Have you ever considered the idea that it’s a triple bluff?

No. Because it's a stupid idea.

Clarabel · 04-07-2019 01:46PM

Green&Red wrote: »

Have you ever considered the idea that it’s a triple bluff?

your reaction on D1 vs today about accusations are remarkably different. I know you said you're trying not to be defensive but you're almost horizonal with laidbackness now.

what's up with that?

Baggly · 04-07-2019 01:58PM

Okay, let's see if I can do wagonomics now based on me being N0 cleared and GnR being N1 found:

sKeith wrote: »

Day 1 is over.

Lynch results.

Votee|Voted by
Strawberry Milkshake|tritium, sullivlo, Clarabel, tusk, Green&Red
tusk|kitten_k, baggly, duffman13
kitten_k|Strawberry Milkshake, Whiplashy
quickbeam|kolido
Clarabel|Ectoplasm
Baggly|quickbeam

Strawberry Milkshake has been lynched. The were vanilla villager.

Night 1 commences.

No more posting until after munch results.

Thank you.

sKeith wrote: »

Day 2 is over.

Please cease posting.

Lynch results.

tusk : Baggly, duffman13, Clarabel
Baggly : Green&Red, Kolido
Clarabel : Whiplashy, kitten_k
kitten_k : tusk, sullivlo
Green&Red : Ectoplasm
Kolido : quickbeam

tusk was lynched, they were a vanilla villager.

Night 2 begins.

D1

Ok so why does GNR move onto SM on d1. Who is he trying to save? Comes back to Kitten again. On thread it wasnt very clear who was in the running. Reluctant to say it was Kitten he was trying to save. Could be he was hopping on a safe bulked out wagon. But why do so late and last?

Conceivable wolves split wagons. Id say likely. Duffers would be the next wolf if thats the case. It looks like he voted late but he didnt - Kitten and i just got in early on Tusk. This could have been a vote where he was expecting people to row in behiind him to obscure him in the wagon trail.

Whipper on Kitten. Well i dont see them both being wolves on a team. So if one is a wolf, the other isnt imo.

Kolido on QB and QB on me are throwaway votes and are very annoying. Cant really interpret them much.

Sully on SM is interesting. Early wagon joiner. Conceivable this was a village error. Could have been a d1 wolf stick no matter what type deal. Surprised Sully didnt twig SM not behaving wolfy tbh.

Clara on SM - for now i buy that it was a wagony throwaway vote. Its mid wagon, so insulated on both sides. Hard to read that vote by itself.

D2

Duffers on the tusk wagon. Got on early again. Hidden in the wagon trail.

GNR on me with Kolido. It would be ballsy to have two wolves on the one player; especially since i wasnt under much heat yesterday evening. No inconceivable. Could have been planned that way.

Kitten and Whipper on Clara - Hmmm this is tricky as i dont think they are on the same team as per above. Is the kitten vote on Clara self pres? She has been very fluffy otherwise.

Sully on Kitten - Kitten was under pressure yesterday. Not unreasonable to hop on Kitten for your vote. Sully was online last night trying to do a CFD however. Cant have been so gung ho on Kitten then. Reads like it doesnt matter where her vote goes, as everyone is a valid target. Ectos hint on sully keeps her away from wolf lean for me.

QB on Kolido. Another throwaway vote ALMOST LIKE SOMEONE IS TRYING TO INVALIDATE VOTE ANALYSIS.

Kolido on both votes - no idea what he is doing. Seems to be taking pot shots at outliers. Again, not helpful.

Clara on Tusk - it was the killing vote. Could have been self pres. But thats not exclusively a wolf trait. Hard to read.

Conclusions:

Village
Baggly
Kitten
Sully
Clara
Kolido
QB
Whipper
Duffers
GNR
Wolf

WereWolf: A 13 player Seer game

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