Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

robinph · 03-07-2019 10:15AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'd add the Tories to the Brexit Party and Labour to your Remain alliance.

Yeah, I can't see Labour falling that badly that the Greens have more seats than them. Greens might get a decent proportion of the vote around the country, but other than Brighton they are not going to have enough elsewhere to actually win much in the way of seats.

The slightly PR system of the EU elections gave a boots to both Lib/ Green and especially Brexit parties. Sure the Brexit party will win some seats in the next GE, depending on when it happens, but would they actually get enough organised votes across the whole of England that translate into seats? More likely to cut the Tory vote and so let one of the others in, either Labour or Lib.

J Mysterio · 03-07-2019 10:16AM

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Tony Benn is dead. You may be thinking of his son Hilary.

That's the one. I need covfefe.

Midlife · 03-07-2019 10:17AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Where Corbyn, and Labour, have failed is by not demanding any form of accountability from the government.

By being si so utterly divided themselves, and with Corbyn afraid to take any position, it has allowed Tories to avoid any real scrutiny.

Even know, with both John's and Hunt making ludicrous and clearly undeliverable statements, Labour some hammering them.

Instead they are free to say anything they want knowing that no one is going to challenge them on it.

Every functioning democracy needs a functioning and credible opposition.

Corbyn's not afraid to take a position, he wants the UK out.

As long as he manages to hang on to power in Labour, he'll be in a great position once the conservatives do the dirty work while destroying their party.

I'm not saying he's great or anything but staying away from this car crash while the dirtywork is done by someone else is the right idea.

Zubeneschamali · 03-07-2019 10:19AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'd add the Tories to the Brexit Party and Labour to your Remain alliance.

My point is that the Government might not need Labour, and if the Brexit Party are the largest in Opposition, they ARE the official Opposition.

Both Labour and Tories could be reduced to the position the SNP have in Westminster today, they have 35 MPs, but they are neither in Government nor are they the Official Opposition.

I don't think this is very likely, but it is fun to imagine.

J Mysterio · 03-07-2019 10:20AM

Midlife wrote: »

Corbyn's not afraid to take a position, he wants the UK out.

As long as he manages to hang on to power in Labour, he'll be in a great position once the conservatives do the dirty work while destroying their party.

I'm not saying he's great or anything but staying away from this car crash while the dirtywork is done by someone else is the right idea.

No, the right idea would have been to oppose Brexit (a very long time ago) and provide an actual opposition.

Corbyn is helping to destroy the lives of the normal 'worker'.

VinLieger · 03-07-2019 10:23AM

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Tony Benn is dead. You may be thinking of his son Hilary.

David Lammy has impressed.

Jess Philips has also impressed me, however she like most labour members is still far too hesitant to criticise Corbyns complete lack of leadership and ardent fence sitting

Zubeneschamali · 03-07-2019 10:23AM

robinph wrote: »

Yeah, I can't see Labour falling that badly that the Greens have more seats than them.

The Greens don't have to be bigger than Labour to get into Government ahead of Labour.

My LibDem/SNP/Green alliance is a Remain alliance. Labour are not a Remain party not under Corbyn, so why would the actual Remain parties want them if they had the numbers without them.

ancapailldorcha · 03-07-2019 10:27AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

No, the right idea would have been to oppose Brexit (a very long time ago) and provide an actual opposition.

Corbyn is helping to destroy the lives of the normal 'worker'.

This is the thing. Parties are supposed to show leadership instead of just pandering to their base. Sure, there might be some vexed voters but this position of constructive ambiguity is going to cost them votes on the other side to the Lib Dems. Younger people favour staying in. It's the longer term option which entails short term pain but sitting on the fence may no longer be a viable option given that 7 years seems to the requisite period in British politics for a sin to be forgotten, namely the tuition fees.

Laois_Man · 03-07-2019 10:28AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The Greens don't have to be bigger than Labour to get into Government ahead of Labour.

My LibDem/SNP/Green alliance is a Remain alliance. Labour are not a Remain party not under Corbyn, so why would the actual Remain parties want them if they had the numbers without them.

Those three parties combined aren't going to get anywhere near a majority!

Midlife · 03-07-2019 10:28AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

No, the right idea would have been to oppose Brexit (a very long time ago) and provide an actual opposition.

Corbyn is helping to destroy the lives of the normal 'worker'.

Yeah, I get that. But given he doesn't oppose Brexit, his actions make sense (from his point of view).

Zubeneschamali · 03-07-2019 10:32AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

No, the right idea would have been to oppose Brexit (a very long time ago) and provide an actual opposition.

For a Labour Brexit supporter, the right move is to stand clear. The Tories deliver Brexit, it's a disaster, Labour win the next election.

Labour get into Government and get Brexit without getting blamed for Brexit. All the downsides of Brexit can be blamed on the fool Tories incompetence, and Corbyn can set about returning the UK to the year 1970.

Leroy42 · 03-07-2019 10:34AM

Midlife wrote: »

Yeah, I get that. But given he doesn't oppose Brexit, his actions make sense (from his point of view).

Not really. Fine if he want to support Brexit, at least that is a position. What he should have been doing to holding the Tories to account for the debacle that TM was in charge over.

She had the two biggest defeats in HoC history and JC had almost nothing to say. He called for a GE, but that was it. It didn't offer any alternative for BRexiteers to go.

So even if you take the point that he was happy with Brexit, then his complete abdication of his role means that even that is under threat.

Midlife · 03-07-2019 10:36AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Corbyn is helping to destroy the lives of the normal 'worker'.

And with due respect, the normal 'worker' went for Brexit in many cases because their lives were not improving under the successive conservative and previously labour governments.

Brexit will indeed make things worse but you can't say Brexit alone is going to ruin places like Sunderland.

The British government has been failing it's people for a few decades now.

I mean taking Sunderland as an example with it's massive reliance on Nissan and huge Brexit vote. How **** must things be to get Turkeys to vote for Christmas.

Zubeneschamali · 03-07-2019 10:42AM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Those three parties combined aren't going to get anywhere near a majority!

FPTP is a mad system which works to keep the Labour/Tory duopoly in place.

But if the vote gets very fractured, almost anything can happen for an election or two until things settle down with two new permanent parties. If the Labour party continue to sit on the fence, The Brexit Party will split the Brexit vote and let actual Remainers take both Labour and Tory seats.

The split was Whigs vs Tories in the 1700s. Liberals vs. Tories in the 1800s. Labour vs. Tories in the 1900s.

It could flip to Leave vs. Remain for an election cycle or two, and since Labour and the Tories are split on this question, they could be replaced by parties with a clear message on this issue.

J Mysterio · 03-07-2019 10:46AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

For a Labour Brexit supporter, the right move is to stand clear. The Tories deliver Brexit, it's a disaster, Labour win the next election.

Labour get into Government and get Brexit without getting blamed for Brexit. All the downsides of Brexit can be blamed on the fool Tories incompetence, and Corbyn can set about returning the UK to the year 1970.

This is nice in theory, but in practice we all know that choosing not to fight Brexit is choosing to support Brexit. Very, very few will come out of this shambles unscathed or untainted.

And once the country is a Mad Max Wasteland™, Labour won't have much fun in running it, and 'the people' won't give them very long to turn it around. Turning it around will also mean going back to the EU and resolving those issues the EU want resolved now.

So even if Corbyn sits on his hands until the Tories have crashed out of the EU, it will then be him who will have to go back and make the concessions that the EU have been demanding all along. A pointless and disastrous 'plan' worthy of Baldrick.

robinph · 03-07-2019 10:47AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The Greens don't have to be bigger than Labour to get into Government ahead of Labour.

My LibDem/SNP/Green alliance is a Remain alliance. Labour are not a Remain party not under Corbyn, so why would the actual Remain parties want them if they had the numbers without them.

Nope, but the SNP can never get more than 59? Green are at best going to get enough for a small round of drinks, which leaves the Lib Dems needing to go from 12 seats to 250 which is also not going to happen.

Could have Labour and LibDems neck and neck for the top number of seats on that side, but no way Lib Dem are making that much of a leap in numbers.

J Mysterio · 03-07-2019 10:52AM

Midlife wrote: »

And with due respect, the normal 'worker' went for Brexit in many cases because their lives were not improving under the successive conservative and previously labour governments.

Brexit will indeed make things worse but you can't say Brexit alone is going to ruin places like Sunderland.

The British government has been failing it's people for a few decades now.

I mean taking Sunderland as an example with it's massive reliance on Nissan and huge Brexit vote. How **** must things be to get Turkeys to vote for Christmas.

I agree that successive governments have quite clearly abandoned huge swathes of the country to ruin, but Brexit is the death knell. It's actually dangerous in many ways. Remove manufacturing from some of these places, there is almost nothing left.

Brings to mind the former mining towns in Wales - there is literally nothing in these towns. Nothing.

Leroy42 · 03-07-2019 10:58AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

FPTP is a mad system which works to keep the Labour/Tory duopoly in place.

But if the vote gets very fractured, almost anything can happen for an election or two until things settle down with two new permanent parties. If the Labour party continue to sit on the fence, The Brexit Party will split the Brexit vote and let actual Remainers take both Labour and Tory seats.

The split was Whigs vs Tories in the 1700s. Liberals vs. Tories in the 1800s. Labour vs. Tories in the 1900s.

It could flip to Leave vs. Remain for an election cycle or two, and since Labour and the Tories are split on this question, they could be replaced by parties with a clear message on this issue.

Based on the EU elections both Tory and Labour (and I'm talking in general terms rather than dealing with specific seats) are looking at being well short of the number of votes that would get them top.

FPTP system means that if the voters think this then they are faced with either voting, for example, Tory and allowing the Lib Dems or something to get in or getting full on behind the BP.

FPTP works for the main parties because they are the main parties and so get the advantage. Losing that Main will mean they run the risk of suffering the same fate of the normal smaller parties. For Example UKIP in 2015.

03-07-2019 11:04AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I agree that successive governments have quite clearly abandoned huge swathes of the country to ruin, but Brexit is the death knell. It's actually dangerous in many ways. Remove manufacturing from some of these places, there is almost nothing left.

Brings to mind the former mining towns in Wales - there is literally nothing in these towns. Nothing.

In the 1980s, I briefly lived in a town in North Wales that had been de-industrialised by the Thatcher policies of the early 1980s, some parts of the town looked like they had been carpet bombed by the Luftwaffe.
There was an entire industrial estate full of demolished and wrecked buildings and hundreds of abandoned houses. The Conservative policies at the start of the 1980s was to replace manufacturing with service & financial industry jobs. The loss of all that manufacturing capacity has severely weakened the UK's clout in any trade negotiations.

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 11:09AM

Last quarter, the British economy shrank for the first time in seven years. I wonder will Johnson mention this in the hustings.

Zubeneschamali · 03-07-2019 11:14AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

FPTP works for the main parties because they are the main parties and so get the advantage. Losing that Main will mean they run the risk of suffering the same fate of the normal smaller parties.

Traditionally, people vote Labour because only Labour can stop the Tories, and they vote Tory because only the Tories can stop Labour.

But if the burning question in the GE campaign is who can deliver Brexit and who can stop it, why vote for either? The Tories have signally failed to deliver, and Labour haven't even tried to stop them.

Clearly you should vote for the Brexit Party or the Bollocks to Brexit Party.

Zubeneschamali · 03-07-2019 11:17AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I understand the point they are getting at though, so not offended. It's not a great cartoon though.

Not very funny, agreed, but replacing Unicorns with end-of-the-rainbow Leprechaun Gold doesn't seem offensive to me.

lawred2 · 03-07-2019 11:18AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Not very funny, agreed, but replacing Unicorns with end-of-the-rainbow Leprechaun Gold doesn't seem offensive to me.

Given that the backstop is an Irish matter then at least the use of leprechauns is appropriate

It's a fairly poor effort at it but it's definitely not offensive

Quin_Dub · 03-07-2019 11:25AM

Deleted User wrote: »

In the 1980s, I briefly lived in a town in North Wales that had been de-industrialised by the Thatcher policies of the early 1980s, some parts of the town looked like they had been carpet bombed by the Luftwaffe.
There was an entire industrial estate full of demolished and wrecked buildings and hundreds of abandoned houses. The Conservative policies at the start of the 1980s was to replace manufacturing with service & financial industry jobs. The loss of all that manufacturing capacity has severely weakened the UK's clout in any trade negotiations.

Jobs which are utterly dependent on Market access, yet they are driving for No-Deal.

It's beyond tragic at this point , listening to all the various pro-Brexit commentators now talking about how Post-Brexit Britain will be awful but it's ok it'll be "ours" or something...

And somehow this is ok?

murphaph · 03-07-2019 11:27AM

Tricolour alongside German and EU flags on prominent display around here ahead of President's state visit to Germany:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1072638109604952&id=348195155382588

The symbolism is important. Germany knows what it's like to have a hard border. Germany understands our need for a backstop to prevent one re-emerging in Ireland. Johnson & Hunt take notice.

03-07-2019 11:31AM

Deleted User wrote: »

In the 1980s, I briefly lived in a town in North Wales that had been de-industrialised by the Thatcher policies of the early 1980s, some parts of the town looked like they had been carpet bombed by the Luftwaffe.
There was an entire industrial estate full of demolished and wrecked buildings and hundreds of abandoned houses. The Conservative policies at the start of the 1980s was to replace manufacturing with service & financial industry jobs. The loss of all that manufacturing capacity has severely weakened the UK's clout in any trade negotiations.

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Jobs which are utterly dependent on Market access, yet they are driving for No-Deal.

It's beyond tragic at this point , listening to all the various pro-Brexit commentators now talking about how Post-Brexit Britain will be awful but it's ok it'll be "ours" or something...

And somehow this is ok?

Yes the clear flaw in the current Brexit thinking, they really should have restored some manufacturing capability first, service sector on its own can't provide the financial security the country needs after Brexit.

Leroy42 · 03-07-2019 11:41AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Traditionally, people vote Labour because only Labour can stop the Tories, and they vote Tory because only the Tories can stop Labour.

But if the burning question in the GE campaign is who can deliver Brexit and who can stop it, why vote for either? The Tories have signally failed to deliver, and Labour haven't even tried to stop them.

Clearly you should vote for the Brexit Party or the Bollocks to Brexit Party.

Certainly the Tory or Labour decision was the only one until recently. But if a vote for a Tory would still result in either the Lab or Lib Dem getting in then you may look elsewhere. As the BP looks very attractive.

It is the all or nothing impact of the FPTP. Whilst it is very good at protecting the stronger parties, it is also pretty brutal at wiping them out should they fall below a certain level.

ancapailldorcha · 03-07-2019 11:41AM

Memes deleted.

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 01:35PM

Farage tweet today accusing Johnson of telling people what they want to hear. Hahaha!

ancapailldorcha · 03-07-2019 01:38PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Farage tweet today accusing Johnson of telling people what they want to hear. Hahaha!

This is the tweet:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1146364603334627328

It didn't take long before they turned on each other!

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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