Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler · 28-06-2019 11:37AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

But the process never went anywhere. The Commissioners never presented a report to Parliament, and it was another century before anything was done to unite the two countries.

Sounds like a trial run for Brexit - so we can expect the WA to be finally signed in about another 97 years!

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think only devout Brexiters would be fooled by this. A referendum which excludes the option known to be the most popular option can't pass itself off as "democratic"; it's the referendum equivalent of an election in a one-party state.

While I agree "academically" with what you say, we're only watching the Brexit pantomime because the Tories managed to pass off an ill-thought-out, advisory referendum with dubious outside interference as a legally binding, democratic mandate. There doesn't (yet) seem to be any appetite in the UK for stopping the same thing happening again.

CelticRambler · 28-06-2019 11:43AM

S.M.B. wrote: »

Had a conversation at the weekend with some British friends here in London and while they are remainers and intelligent guys they said that if they had to vote between Mays deal and No Deal they would vote for the latter. I was pretty shocked that No Deal was an actual legitimate choice going forward.

Genuine question: were they able to explain why they'd opt for no-deal. Did they give you the impression that they understood what it was to be a third country? Would they vote "no deal" so as to provoke a crisis and bring the lukewarm Leavers to their senses, or have they been beaten into an attitude of "enough already, just get on with it" ?

My Remainer friends (all of them proud, true-blue Brits) are still furious and making lifestyle adjustments in view of a future exile.

J Mysterio · 28-06-2019 11:46AM

A senior ally of Angela Merkel has questioned Boris Johnson's suitability to become prime minister, warning that he cannot be trusted.

Elmar Brok, a senior MEP from the Chancellor's CDU party, said he knew and liked Mr Johnson personally but that he had his doubts about his suitability for high office.

“I have fun with him. We’ve had many cigars and whisky in our lives together,” he said in an interview with parliament's The House magazine.

“As someone who was a journalist here, who was not very often very close to the truth when he was at the Daily Telegraph, when he invented stories – he has not changed."

He added: "It’s fun to talk to him – it’s really fun to talk to him, intellectual fun. But to run a country?”

Mr Johnson was based in Brussels in the late 1990s, where he developed a reputation for inventing stories and exaggerating the truth.

Mr Brok, a German conservative, was the longest serving MEP until he stood down in last month's election. He added that Brexit was a "purely English question", and an "Eton boys' game".

The MEP, who sits in the European Parliament's Brexit committee until next month, however said it would be a "big surprise" if Mr Johnson did not become prime minister.

In the same interview, he predicted that the UK would struggle to thrive as an independent country and would ask to re-join the EU within a decade.

UK Independent

ancapailldorcha · 28-06-2019 11:53AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Except, of course, that a no-deal Brexit won't "put an end to it". All that it will do is move the UK onto the next phase of the process, which involves actually having to make some decisions about the future relationship they would like with the EU. and of course it's their inability to make those decisions that has them in the mess they're in now. No-deal Brexit won't solve that problem; it will just make it impossible to go on deferring it.

After Brexit, the existing range of options - Remain; May's deal; no-deal - are swept away and replaced with a new range - Rejoin; meet the EU's terms for a future relationshiop agreement; forget about a future relationship agreement. Since the EU's objectives and priorities for a FR agreement will the same as for the WA, the first three positions map pretty neatly onto the second three, and the existing paralysed indecision will continue.

Unless events change it, of course. And the obvious event that might change it is the pain, disruption, depression and hardship that will result from living in a no-deal Brexit Britain. Brexiter politicians who have steered the UK towards a no-deal Brexit have presumably thought about this, and so far as I can see their strategy for not paying a heavy political price for this will be some combination of (a) invoking the spirit of the Blitz, and (b) blaming the EU, Ireland, Remainers, the party opposite. But if those strategies don't work you could expect some bleeding of support from the "forget about a FR agreement" camp into the "meet the EU terms for a FR agreement" camp.

As for the Rejoin camp, that will be a long-term objective. But they will also have aspirations for the future relationship (basically, as close as possible) which will give them short-term and medium term goals that align will with the "meet the EU terms for a FR agreement" camp.

So, in the medium term, post-Brexit I'd expect the UK to move towards accepting a FR agreement which includes the elements that have cause them to reject the WA.

Of course. All true.

However, this issue is perception. There were people in 2016 who thought that Brexit had already happened and the projected economic catastrophe had been averted. Now we're seeing people think that crashing out is the end of it when it's the beginning.

The UK will have to replicate several EU bodies and, in the short term at least EU regulations and legislation. Then it'll need to get to serious work on trade deals if these can even be signed. In the meantime we're likely to see talent, capital and business leave the country. Whether it'll be a trickle or a flood remains to be seen. I think the civil service has done a good job with preparing for a no deal but it's capacity is limited by the pro-Brexit elite.

What will be interesting to see if nothing else is how far the Brexiters can stretch the strategy of "Fake news", "Liberal Remoaners" and invoking the Blitz as if they were there themselves. The areas that will be hardest hit will likely find that another does of jingoistic, asininie nonsense isn't going to help them very much, nor will project Singapore-on-Thames when Jeremy Corbyn gets round to offering his own semi-populist alternative replete with the same sort of tactics Nigel Farage used to sell Brexit.

trellheim · 28-06-2019 01:14PM

British-Irish council on at the moment in Manchester's, Leo's going as is Nicola Sturgeon. No May, no Arlene.

( UK represented by Lidington ) . May's in Japan for the G20 but I doubt she would have attended.

Sam Russell · 28-06-2019 01:34PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What will be interesting to see if nothing else is how far the Brexiters can stretch the strategy of "Fake news", "Liberal Remoaners" and invoking the Blitz as if they were there themselves.

Someone I knew, unfortunately no longer with us, who lived in London during the blitz. Her home was destroyed once. She said that the V1 buzz bombs were very bad, but the V2 was much worse because people on the ground just heard the bang and saw the destruction. She said that if the V2 barrage had continued for much longer (in terms of months), the population of London could not take it. The blitz spirit was in the post war movies, not on the ground

Not many who were not there understand this. There comes a time when any outcome is better than the uncertainty of the now, no matter how much worse that outcome might be.

And I can see the remain voters thinking - 'stop - make it stop - please make it stop - I've already had enough - what ever you want, but only please make it stop'.

They just hear the bang of the fake news hitting the screen, and the interviewer never shouting stop.

Panrich · 28-06-2019 01:51PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Someone I knew, unfortunately no longer with us, who lived in London during the blitz. Her home was destroyed once. She said that the V1 buzz bombs were very bad, but the V2 was much worse because people on the ground just heard the bang and saw the destruction. She said that if the V2 barrage had continued for much longer (in terms of months), the population of London could not take it. The blitz spirit was in the post war movies, not on the ground

Not many who were not there understand this. There comes a time when any outcome is better than the uncertainty of the now, no matter how much worse that outcome might be.

And I can see the remain voters thinking - 'stop - make it stop - please make it stop - I've already had enough - what ever you want, but only please make it stop'.

They just hear the bang of the fake news hitting the screen, and the interviewer never shouting stop.

Not being in the UK makes it more difficult for me to gauge but I can’t see the logic in remain voters wanting it to end. I’d be trying to ensure delay in the probably forlorn hope that it will all somehow get reversed before the evil day arrives.

I’d personally be reveling in the delays watching Farage et al getting more wound up by the day.

ancapailldorcha · 28-06-2019 01:58PM

Panrich wrote: »

Not being in the UK makes it more difficult for me to gauge but I can’t see the logic in remain voters wanting it to end. I’d be trying to ensure delay in the probably forlorn hope that it will all somehow get reversed before the evil day arrives.

I’d personally be reveling in the delays watching Farage et al getting more wound up by the day.

It's not logic, it's exasperation. If you're a foreigner, there's also serious temptation to just give in and head back to where you came from. I work in cancer research and while I haven't seen a huge exodus at my workplace, there has been a slow and steady trickle of Europeans heading back to the continent.

If you're a native Brit and you really care about Remain then chances are you have parents, uncles, aunts and grandparents who voted leave and who'll angrily or arrogantly dismiss your fears and anxieties about leaving since they likely own their own house and can take the hit. So it just becomes easier to accept it and maybe throw a few bob at the likes of Steve Bray and pop down to the People's Vote marches every 6 months.

54and56 · 28-06-2019 02:11PM

trellheim wrote: »

British-Irish council on at the moment in Manchester's, Leo's going as is Nicola Sturgeon. No May, no Arlene.

( UK represented by Lidington ) . May's in Japan for the G20 but I doubt she would have attended.

In fairness deciding between attending the G20 and the British-Irish council isn't even a decision fur May or any other PM.

Why would Arlene be there? She's not First Minister any more is she?

murphaph · 28-06-2019 02:39PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Unbelievable clip here of bumbling Boris talking about the wars and trade with Portugal.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bbc-covered-up-boris-johnson-17269174?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

It's truly embarrassing.

Truly a man educated beyond his intelligence.

Frank Bullitt · 28-06-2019 05:23PM

https://twitter.com/OFOCNI/status/1144301236390432768

Lovely bit of viewing this.

Igotadose · 28-06-2019 05:42PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/OFOCNI/status/1144301236390432768

Lovely bit of viewing this.

Shutting up the Irexit lunatic is extra good in this video. Why they bring those fringe lunatics onto these shows is puzzling - clickbait I suppose.

Frank Bullitt · 28-06-2019 06:21PM

Igotadose wrote: »

Shutting up the Irexit lunatic is extra good in this video. Why they bring those fringe lunatics onto these shows is puzzling - clickbait I suppose.

No idea how any show can give that joker any screen time.

Hurrache · 28-06-2019 06:37PM

Gintonious wrote: »

Lovely bit of viewing this.

Why the hell is that eejit Herman let on TV after been laughed out of the Republic on his Irexit platform.

lawred2 · 28-06-2019 06:38PM

Well the EU has signed a free trade deal with the South American heavyweights. Looks like our Farmers can look forward to all that cheap beef we were threatening NI Farmers with...

Hurrache · 28-06-2019 06:40PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Well the EU has signed a free trade deal with the South American heavyweights. Looks like our Farmers can look forward to all that cheap beef we were threatening NI Farmers with...

Open standards and imports were part of that deal?

An Ciarraioch · 28-06-2019 06:58PM

Last report I saw the annual quota was expected to be 99k per year, and the beef had to be hormone-free - Ireland alone exported 470k last year:

https://www.enterprise-ireland.com/en/Start-a-Business-in-Ireland/Food-Investment-from-Outside-Ireland/Key-Sectors/Meat-and-Livestock/

lawred2 · 28-06-2019 07:06PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Open standards and imports were part of that deal?

I wouldn't expect standards be lowered no

Joe_ Public · 28-06-2019 08:48PM

54&56 wrote: »

I could absolutely see a Boris govt coming back empty handed from the EU and railing against intransigence blah blah blah but then saying that rather than force a No Deal through by proroguing HoC he will do the democratic thing and allow the country to choose either No Deal or the WA in a referendum and justify same on the basis that the decision to leave was been made in the 2016 referendum so having remain as an option isn't relevant.

Such a strategy would work well for the Tories in that it would:-

a) Ensure a "democratic" Brexit was delivered.
b) Avoid a constitutional crisis which proroguing HoC would spark.
c) Avoid a general election which the Tories would be slaughtered in if it occurred prior to this phase of Brexit being accomplished.

The above would completely pull the rug from under Farage and the Brexit Party and give Boris a couple of years post "Brexit" to deliver some populist domestic policies before the next scheduled General Election in May 2022 by which time Farage and the whole "Remain" argument will be a speck in the rear view mirror and the election will all be about rewarding the guy who got the job done when no one else could and keeping that Marxist Corbyn out of #10.

If he plays his cards right Boris could not only deliver Brexit but he could win a Tory majority in 2022 providing a No Deal (if that was the result of the referendum) didn't destroy the economy which of course is a huge risk.

It's an interesting scenario, Caroline Flint i think it was who proposed something similar on QT last night. Have to say, personally, I would be against it on the grounds that I dont believe No Deal has any more right to be on the ballot paper than Remain has. It would seem to offer a good deal of closure on the issue, but not in any democratic sense i think. I just dont see anything democratic in a no deal outcome on that basis, no matter how loudly the no deal brexiteers harp on about it.

Also, i'm not sure procedurally how it would work. Getting the initial referendum through the house in 2016 took the guts of a year if i recall correctly. It has to be agreed by parliament, including the terms and wording of it, so seems to me you're just stuck in the same twisty maze where we are at present. Not sure i can see any out for any new PM in that.

Leroy42 · 28-06-2019 09:31PM

But if they vote for no deal does that mean no deals at all? So they couldn't even accept citizens rights agreements?

And that no future government could ever strike a deal without a further vote?

L1011 · 28-06-2019 09:38PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But if they vote for no deal does that mean no deals at all? So they couldn't even accept citizens rights agreements?

And that no future government could ever strike a deal without a further vote?

The UK has no concept of a binding referendum...

CelticRambler · 28-06-2019 09:39PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But if they vote for no deal does that mean no deals at all? So they couldn't even accept citizens rights agreements?

And that no future government could ever strike a deal without a further vote?

If they vote for a "no deal" exit, that means that they cut all ties with the EU and become a European North Korea.

After that, if they want to be a grown-up country and (re)start trading with the world - especially their closest neighbours - they have to start doing deals, and that'll mean reaching a compromise, accepting terms & conditions, and demonstrating good faith. Those deals will be a hell of a lot hard to negotiate than the WA & FTA.

Ironically, lots of future governments would decide whether or not a vote was needed .... but they'd all be foreign powers.

Christy42 · 28-06-2019 10:06PM

L1011 wrote: »

The UK has no concept of a binding referendum...

So what it would be against democracy to go against it so of the people say no deals whatsoever...

Sand · 28-06-2019 10:06PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

If they vote for a "no deal" exit, that means that they cut all ties with the EU and become a European North Korea.

After that, if they want to be a grown-up country and (re)start trading with the world - especially their closest neighbours - they have to start doing deals, and that'll mean reaching a compromise, accepting terms & conditions, and demonstrating good faith. Those deals will be a hell of a lot hard to negotiate than the WA & FTA.

Ironically, lots of future governments would decide whether or not a vote was needed .... but they'd all be foreign powers.

I think this is interesting. TBH, I think that the UK must go for no deal given the political mood in the country. The miscalculation amongst remainers in the UK and the wider EU is that the UK would at the 11th hour blink, and do anything to avoid a decline in their GDP potential. The miscalculation on the part of the Brexiteers has been that the EU will at the 11th hour blink, and do anything to avoid a decline in their GDP potential. The reality is that Brexiteers value Brexit above GDP, and the EU values the EU above GDP. There is a stubborn disbelief on both sides that the other could have a value system that exceeds the cult of GDP.

What is interesting is that the deeper a member state of the EU integrates with the EU, a single system, the greater the chance of failure upon a single point. If the choice is between being an enthusiastic and full member of the EU, or being a "European North Korea" is there actually a genuine choice being presented to European electorates? If the choice is between X and being a "European North Korea" how much of the support of EU membership is genuine enthusiasm as opposed to fear of being an international pariah state?

Bill Hicks used to have an act where he would mock opponents who would challenge him to leave the US if he hated it so much. "What, and be a victim of our foreign policy?" Is the same true of the EU?

For the record, I'm not a supporter of Brexit. I think its the wrong answer to a genuine question. I just find the above attitude to be problematic.

BluePlanet · 28-06-2019 10:20PM

Sand wrote: »

Bill Hicks used to have an act where he would mock opponents who would challenge him to leave the US if he hated it so much. "What, and be a victim of our foreign policy?" Is the same true of the EU?

For the record, I'm not a supporter of Brexit. I think its the wrong answer to a genuine question. I just find the above attitude to be problematic.

Didn't we see the same during the run-up to the Scottish Indy vote?
Same when Quebec was flirting with Independence.
I would expect the same treatment if say, a state or territory were aiming to succeed from the USA.

10000maniacs · 28-06-2019 10:24PM

farmchoice wrote: »

not for one second through this whole process did i think no deal was even a remote possibility, that was until this week.
but now its like watching the whole referendum debate again, NO deal is being presented as a thing, an end in its self just like ''brexit'' was.
there is no discussion of what happens after ''no deal'' where do we go from there. the day after a no deal exit the first job of the UK government will to be to get a deal. NOBODY is discussing this, its mental.

The problem with that strategy, is it will force the Irish to put up customs checks, putting lives in danger. The Oxford bunch of the likes of Johnson, Rabb, Mogg, Bridgen and Francois are most likely of the opinion that if the Irish want to kill themselves let them kill themselves. The only one who said it out loud was Johnsons father.

Capt'n Midnight · 28-06-2019 10:25PM

Just a reminder of how long trade deals can take in the real world.

EU does a deal with South America.

The Mercosur trade deal has been almost 20 years in the making and involves Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.
...
The Mercosur trade agreement still has to be fully ratified by the European Commission and by the European Parliament in a process that could take up to two years.

j8wk2feszrnpao · 28-06-2019 10:30PM

Sand wrote: »

The reality is that Brexiteers value Brexit above GDP, and the EU values the EU above GDP. There is a stubborn disbelief on both sides that the other could have a value system that exceeds the cult of GDP.

The EU isn’t throwing the UK out, the UK is choosing to leave. The EU is trying to minimize the impact to the EU and it’s values due to someone else’s decision.
The unicorn requests from Brexiteers is to get a better deal than membership. What is the EU to do?
The stumbling block is NI, so the EU ask to the UK is how it leaves but still maintain the Good Friday Agreement that they signed up to.

Headshot · 28-06-2019 10:34PM

https://news.sky.com/story/david-gauke-justice-secretary-survives-no-confidence-vote-by-local-party-11751076

Fair play to David and nice to see the infestation of Farage minions put back in their box

28-06-2019 10:36PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just a reminder of how long trade deals can take in the real world.

EU does a deal with South America.

I have a feeling that Brexit hurried both this and the Japan deal along.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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