Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Headshot · 26-06-2019 10:53PM

Anyone watching Newsnight

what a great watch. Emily Maitlis is destroying the Brexiter

boggerman1 · 26-06-2019 10:56PM

Headshot wrote: »

Anyone watching Newsnight

what a great watch. Emily Maitlis is destroying the Brexiter

I must be dreaming cause the pro unicorn Johnson supporter is blaming the EU for them seeking an extension,etc,etc.bizzare interview but par for the coarse these days.please UK just crash out and f**k off at Halloween

FrancieBrady · 26-06-2019 10:58PM

Headshot wrote: »

Anyone watching Newsnight

what a great watch. Emily Maitlis is destroying the Brexiter

Johnson will force them to give concessions on the backstop at the last minute. That's the way the EU roll apparently.

trashcan · 26-06-2019 11:42PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is Francois cabinet potential in a Boris government?

Hell, in a Boris government the Downing St cat is probably cabinet material.

fly_agaric · 26-06-2019 11:46PM

From link posted above: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/mark-francois-on-sky-news-1-6128141

"what would be fundamentally different would be we would have a prime minister who finally stood up for us."

"He wouldn't - for instance - give the EU £39 billion for nothing in return. Any businessmen would tell you that is a ludicrous way to negotiate, but that's how we did."

As far as I understand it the UK owes this money and agreed that amount after much haggling in a long set of negotiations. It isn't a gift it is a debt. Some of it includes obligations to UK citizens that work/worked for the EU. It's crazy but the Brexiteers seem to love this rhetoric.

How do you get your counter-party in a receptive mood for this super dooper "comprehensive trade deal" after saying "ha ha you absolute fool, I'm not paying my debts so go whistle for it"? It's a puzzler...

But then I suppose the "Eurocrats" and "Continental types" are all stupid with the memory of a goldfish unlike the imagined wily Brexiteer PM (Boris) battling for Britain's right to welch on its debts!:rolleyes:

Hermy · 27-06-2019 12:03AM

Strazdas wrote: »

...Scotland is a bigger country than...Norway and a reasonably well off one too.

Bigger in what way?

Rain Ascending · 27-06-2019 12:53AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is Francois cabinet potential in a Boris government?

Actually this raises an interesting question that I've been struggling with: who would lead the UK delegation in any exploratory talks with the European Commission after Johnson becomes PM?

Clearly Ollie Robins will be "moved on" and there will be somebody else from the civil services there. But Johnson will need the Brexit secretary to be visibly in control. But who has the mental capability to go toe-to-toe with Barnier on customs and regulations? I can't think of anybody within the ERG with the intellectual heft needed. There are a couple of Brexiteers from the cabinet that have it, most notably Gove and Cox. But both of these have, if reports are to believed, passed on the job already.

Indeed anybody who accepts the job clearly doesn't have the smarts to know that it is a political suicide mission... Shades of the original expression of Catch 22 come to mind.

So they end up with somebody like Stephen Baker. Then the discussions in Brussels will be very, very short: no sneaky pivot back to the existing WA or drawn out talks to get very close to Oct 31 before declaring No Deal. The No-Deal/extension-with-a-GE crunch in the House of Commons will come quite early on.

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-06-2019 01:46AM

Hunt says he's for cutting the corporate tax rate to 12.5%
hmm, 12.5%... sounds familiar.

And defence upto 2.5, even 4%. He must be planning on re-taking the colonies.

Strazdas · 27-06-2019 02:23AM

Hermy wrote: »

Bigger in what way?

Population (5.4m people) and it's fairly well off too. A country like that could easily go it alone as an independent state.

Peregrinus · 27-06-2019 03:00AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is Francois cabinet potential in a Boris government?

Only if you're talking about the bathroom cabinet. Francois is a joke even among Brexiters.

Sam Russell · 27-06-2019 09:02AM

fly_agaric wrote: »

From link posted above: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/mark-francois-on-sky-news-1-6128141

"what would be fundamentally different would be we would have a prime minister who finally stood up for us."

"He wouldn't - for instance - give the EU £39 billion for nothing in return. Any businessmen would tell you that is a ludicrous way to negotiate, but that's how we did."

As far as I understand it the UK owes this money and agreed that amount after much haggling in a long set of negotiations. It isn't a gift it is a debt. Some of it includes obligations to UK citizens that work/worked for the EU. It's crazy but the Brexiteers seem to love this rhetoric.

How do you get your counter-party in a receptive mood for this super dooper "comprehensive trade deal" after saying "ha ha you absolute fool, I'm not paying my debts so go whistle for it"? It's a puzzler...

But then I suppose the "Eurocrats" and "Continental types" are all stupid with the memory of a goldfish unlike the imagined wily Brexiteer PM (Boris) battling for Britain's right to welch on its debts!:rolleyes:

The red bit.

The obligations relating to EU pensions is for ALL EU employees pension entitlements since the UK joined the EU, not just UK employees. The UK are liable for their contribution until the last EU employee due any pension (while the UK was a member of the EU) ceases to be paid a pension, which could be many decades. What has been agreed is an actuarial assessment will be made and the UK will pay over, I think, 40 years. It is NOT the pension rights of UK personnel.

The €45 billion is denominated in Euro and is the balance of commitments made by the UK less any assets that they are due. I would think that if the UK unilaterally reneged on its commitments, the EU might take action to recoup the money, or take retaliatory action - in other words a trade war.

This canard has been dragged up many times (particularly by Boris who said the EU could whistle for the money), and the current UK Chancellor has agreed that they cannot walk away without severe consequences because they owe the money - but it is a cheap sound bite - like WTO rules, Art 24, etc.

As Barnier said 'I do not hear any whistling but I can hear the clock ticking'.

Peregrinus · 27-06-2019 09:18AM

This. It may be in the interests of the UK (or at any rate of certain UK politicians hoping to become leaders of a certain UK political party) to bluster about not paying these sums, but it is certainly not in the interests of the UK not to pay them. People ask what enforcement mechanisms there would be to oblige the UK to pay and the answer is (a) in theory they could be sued in the International Court of Arbitration in the Hague, but (b) what would prevent the UK from repudiating these obligatiosn is not so much the risk of being sued as the enormous reputiational damage that they would inflict on themselves by such a course of action, and the problems it would cause them in future dealings with other sovereigns.

Leroy42 · 27-06-2019 09:22AM

The fact that the extension agreement specifically excludes any reopening of the WA has hardly been brought up.

That is of course before we get to the practicalities of the timing. But are both Johnson and Hunt suggesting that they go back on the agreement?

Which under the terms of the agreement, AFAIK, the extension would end the start of the following month.

And as is still the case, neither of them have stated what they will be willing to give in order to get this change from the EU. To change any deal one side needs to offer something different that is worthwhile to the other side.

The big issue facing any PM is that they are under severe political pressure at home. The EU have had their elections and can now afford to play a waiting game.

As we saw with TM, and every politician, personal survival is the main determinant on many decisions. The new PM will have to face the choice between extension and possible losses to Brexit Party or No Deal and possible losses to Lib Dems.

Leroy42 · 27-06-2019 09:27AM

Johnson will have to have a very publicly pro Brexit cabinet. So Baker etc will have to be brought in (I doubt JRM will take a role on the basis that he 'needs' to stay with the ERG) so whilst Francois would be a disaster I'm not sure that is actually going to play any part in the consideration.

He isn't out being a proxy for Johnson for the good of his health!

FrancieBrady · 27-06-2019 09:31AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

He isn't out being a proxy for Johnson for the good of his health!

That's why I asked...he seems to be very very pro Johnson...like a man who had been promised something.

Peregrinus · 27-06-2019 09:35AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That's why I asked...he seems to be very very pro Johnson...like a man who had been promised something.

He may have been promised something (though I very much doubt that something is a seat in cabinet). But equally he may not; he could just be very enthusiastic, or very keen to make a good impression.

farmchoice · 27-06-2019 09:38AM

im starting to think Johnson may be on the verge of orchestrating his own downfall on this one.
its now pretty clear that not only does he not have ''even a sketch of a plan of how to deliver brexit'' he also now realizes the non runner that is no deal. BUT he has backed himself into a corner. he knows and hunt knows that whoever gets it is going to have to talk the tory party down off the ledge, better to leave that to hunt who they can then sack post end of brexit and he can come charging back.
what is the point of becoming the shortest PM in history?

Hermy · 27-06-2019 09:40AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Population (5.4m people) and it's fairly well off too. A country like that could easily go it alone as an independent state.

In terms of population Norway trails slightly behind with 5.2m people but in terms of land area and economy Norway is significantly larger.

Sam Russell · 27-06-2019 09:43AM

Hermy wrote: »

In terms of population Norway trails slightly behind with 5.2m people but in terms of land area and economy Norway is significantly larger.

But think of all the high skilled remainers in England that would love to move north back into the EU, not to mention the industrial businesses that could not wait to move back into the single market. How far north would Nissan need to go?

Hurrache · 27-06-2019 09:45AM

At one point the UK signed a joint declaration with Japan that they'd lobby the EU to lift bans on food from Fukushima. Chlorinate chicken will have to take a back seat to radioactive foods.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1144152931412914177

kunst nugget · 27-06-2019 09:46AM

farmchoice wrote: »

im starting to think Johnson may be on the verge of orchestrating his own downfall on this one.
its now pretty clear that not only does he not have ''even a sketch of a plan of how to deliver brexit'' he also now realizes the non runner that is no deal. BUT he has backed himself into a corner. he knows and hunt knows that whoever gets it is going to have to talk the tory party down off the ledge, better to leave that to hunt who they can then sack post end of brexit and he can come charging back.
what is the point of becoming the shortest PM in history?

To come out and say we're leaving on October 31st, deal or no deal, to get a few extra votes from the Tory membership was bafflingly dense. It seems like he'll say whatever he thinks the other person wants to hear, whether he believes it or not. I don't know how he'll squirm out of this. Especially when he has the likes of Mark Francois going to the media and making things ten times worse.

Peregrinus · 27-06-2019 09:48AM

Scottish GDP is estimated to be about $237 billion. If it were an independent country (and if indepenence did not signficantly alter its GDP one way or another) that would put it in the same league as Portugal ($237 billion) or Romania ($239 billion).'

Going by GDP per capita, independent Scotland ($43,700, on the same assumption) would come between Belgium ($43,600) and Germany ($44,500).

kunst nugget · 27-06-2019 09:53AM

My particularly favourite Mark Francois moment is when he ripped up the letter from Airbus CEO Tom Enders, warning the government that they would probably pull out of the UK in the event of a no deal Brexit, during a BBC interview saying:

My father Reginald Francois was a D-Day veteran, he never submitted to bullying by any German, neither will his son. So if Mr Enders is watching, that’s what he can do with his letter.

54and56 · 27-06-2019 10:02AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Johnson will force them to give concessions on the backstop at the last minute. That's the way the EU roll apparently.

The EU have taken what might appear to be a negotiating weakness i.e. full transparency and turned it into a strength by being open on what they are prepared to offer given the UK's red lines and by being inclusive with all EU26 members to build a unified position which they then publicly communicate with such consistency that it makes it very difficult for the UK to peel off member states and very difficult for the EU to backtrack on the position they have taken and support they have committed to in relation to the backstop.

If we get to 23:59 on Oct 31st and the EU blinks or backtracks on any of the fundamental positions agreed in the WA without the UK having first moved some of it's red lines the EU will never again be taken seriously in a negotiation.

90% of Irish population (including all mainstream political parties) support the ROI govt position which Simon Coveney neatly summarised in January as:-

"Peace and the Good Friday Agreement are more important than Brexit."

Basically "No Backstop = No Deal".

Brexit is a UK initiative. If they want a deal with the EU they need to sign the WA their government negotiated otherwise they should stop begging for extensions, leave on a No Deal and accept that they will default to being a 3rd country with the same customs and excise status as Cambodia or Haiti.

If Ireland has to choose between protecting long term peace Vs short term economics Ireland will always choose peace and there is no way the EU will ever abandon a fully committed member country to appease anti EU hard Brexiteers.

54and56 · 27-06-2019 10:11AM

Hermy wrote: »

In terms of population Norway trails slightly behind with 5.2m people but in terms of land area and economy Norway is significantly larger.

Here's the main difference between Scotland and Norway in relation to their ability to prosper as small independent countries - https://www.nbim.no

volchitsa · 27-06-2019 10:20AM

Hermy wrote: »

In terms of population Norway trails slightly behind with 5.2m people but in terms of land area and economy Norway is significantly larger.

Don't think land area matters much, plenty of city states prove that. And much of Norway is always going to be sparsely populated and even more sparsely farmed, for climatic regions.

As for economy, they are wealthy now thanks to proper investment of their oil wealth, the UK squandered Scotland's equivalent in tax breaks for the English.
But they were a stable independent country before the oil boom, and there's no reason to think they would have stopped being one if it had never happened.

The difference is they might well have felt the need to join the EU in that case. Just like Scotland.

sink · 27-06-2019 10:41AM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/lumi_1984/status/1143587403770322947

"For goodness sake, Scotland by itself? How's it going to survive?"

"What does it have? Oil, and a monster in a lake?"

I can't see the Scots putting up with British politics 2019-style for much longer.

I like they way they talk about the Queen having to go overseas to visit Balmoral, I didn't realize that Scottish independence meant having to create a whole new sea, that might hurt the economic argument somewhat.

Hermy · 27-06-2019 10:42AM

54&56 wrote: »

Here's the main difference between Scotland and Norway in relation to their ability to prosper as small independent countries - https://www.nbim.no

I've read about that before recently - think it came up in a quiz question.
It's really something.

branie2 · 27-06-2019 10:43AM

Boris Johnson is promising an Australian style points system for immigrants if he is elected.

ambro25 · 27-06-2019 10:50AM

branie2 wrote: »

Boris Johnson is promising an Australian style points system for immigrants if he is elected.

Are there any major differences between this promised "Australian-style" PBS, and the existing, 11-year old, 'hostile environment'-tweaked British PBS?

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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