Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty · 23-06-2019 12:50PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Oh, God, not for weeks. If neither Hunt nor Johnson withdraws, then the choice is made by a postal ballot of members, with the results being announced in the week of 22 July. The time lapse is to allow the candidates to go tripping around the country attending local hustings, debates, etc.

It's not that there's much doubt about the result. It's just there can be no serious encounter with reality among Tories, and no real confronting of the decisions the UK must make, until this process has dragged itself out to the end. And Oct 31 gets ever closer.

I dunno. While he's looking like a shoe in, there may well be some serious dirt out there on Johnson. At the very least, he's a controversial character. Just today, the Sunday Times reporting that two ministers have said he would be very exposed to blackmail. Apart from the Hunt camp, there are a lot of people out there who would be very happy to sabotage his campaign - as the domestic incident proved.

Water John · 23-06-2019 01:03PM

A month in the spotlight may leave him a very damaged occupier of No 10.

Cal4567 · 23-06-2019 01:20PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Was it? It’s trending on twitter today. That’s teally odd that it would pop back up after some time.
Youd have to wonder how or why that is.
Definitely seems to be an organised assault on Boris. From where though?

*its also popped up on a few Brexit /anti brexit FB groups im in.

I've found that a problem with twitter. Things are put up as if they are new but in reality, they are a few months or even a year or two old. It then catches fire and before you know it, it is high on trending.

I would say a fair part of the leftist media are out to get Boris. At the same time he does make it rather easy for them. The right wing media, DT, Daily Mail, Express, have it a a leftist plot. Quite the soap opera.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-06-2019 01:26PM

Cal4567 wrote: »

I've found that a problem with twitter. Things are put up as if they are new but in reality, they are a few months or even a year or two old. It then catches fire and before you know it, it is high on trending.

I would say a fair part of the leftist media are out to get Boris. At the same time he does make it rather easy for them. The right wing media, DT, Daily Mail, Express, have it a a leftist plot. Quite the soap opera.

It’s quite the addictive soap opera.
I ignored british politics all my life and suffered that malign view ‘when England coughs Ireland catches a cold’ we just aped them and all their bad policy. We haven’t broken that yet, Leo and FG being tiny thatcher privatising everything as a goal.
Brexit changed that for me. I hope we finally snap out of copying their patently and obviously stupid approach to being servile to corporations and greed.
Cock eyed optimism on my part.

trellheim · 23-06-2019 01:31PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Oh, God, not for weeks. If neither Hunt nor Johnson withdraws, then the choice is made by a postal ballot of members, with the results being announced in the week of 22 July. The time lapse is to allow the candidates to go tripping around the country attending local hustings, debates, etc.

It's not that there's much doubt about the result. It's just there can be no serious encounter with reality among Tories, and no real confronting of the decisions the UK must make, until this process has dragged itself out to the end. And Oct 31 gets ever closer.

Assume

1. BJ gets in as PM
2. Immediate vote of confidence motion from Labour . A few Tory MPs I think have gone on the record to say they would not vote for boris

Right now
Out of 650

Con
312 + DUP 10 = 322

Opposition
247+SNP 35 = 282

282+15 IND + 12 LDEM = 309

+5 Change UK, 4 Welsh, 1 Green = 309+10=319

Making up the numbers is 1 vacant, 1 speaker and 7 Sinn Fein abstentionist. Although SF taking the seats and voting against might cause the govt to fall I really am not sure what event would get them to abandon that long held policy, so its not something to count on .

some of the IND might vote with the govt e.g Lady Hermon but people like Kate Hoey might as well :rolleyes: .

The question is though would party loyalty triumph over hard brexit/fear of corbyn and would a few Tory MPs vote for a PM bent on Hard Out

Watch then as the all-stick-together spirit grows over the next couple of months while waving Land of Hope and Glory flags

Cal4567 · 23-06-2019 01:35PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It’s quite the addictive soap opera.
I ignored british politics all my life and suffered that malign view ‘when England coughs Ireland catches a cold’ we just aped them and all their bad policy. We haven’t broken that yet, Leo and FG being tiny thatcher privatising everything as a goal.
Brexit changed that for me. I hope we finally snap out of copying their patently and obviously stupid approach to being servile to corporations and greed.
Cock eyed optimism on my part.

We are different, but also very much the same. I think Leo and certain elements of the D4 media would have us as very different, but talking to real people, we're very much the same. Similar issues, and as far as I can see, the exact same hopes, fears, and aspirations. I work a lot now across the UK. It's been a real eye opener to me how alike we are. I come home and it's all Premiership football and Love Island.

Roll on 20 years, beyond Brexit, I'm not sure in what place both countries will be.

bob mcbob · 23-06-2019 01:50PM

Headline in the Scottish edition of the Sunday Times

Boris victory "Will End Union"

Cryptopagan · 23-06-2019 02:08PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

Headline in the Scottish edition of the Sunday Times

Boris victory "Will End Union"

What difference do they imagine it will make whether Johnson or Hunt wins? Neither of them proposes to pursue a version of Brexit more acceptable to staunchly Remain Scotland.

Capt'n Midnight · 23-06-2019 02:11PM

Yet more evidence that the UK gov't can't manager a simple off-the-shelf IT project nevermind a techo border.

Registering online is perhaps the simplest part of any project that needs new technology.

17 July 2017 UK announced plans to roll out an online age verification scheme

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-47706818/online-pornography-age-checks-for-uk-web-users

UK internet users could soon have to pay for an ID check if they want to watch pornography online at a cost of £4.99 per device.
...
She said there was now a holding pattern for the legislation that was passed in 2017

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48700906

An age-check scheme designed to stop under-18s viewing pornographic websites has been delayed a second time.

The changes - which mean UK internet users may have to prove their age - were due to start on 15 July after already being delayed from April 2018.

What makes it worse is that like the border there are reasons why it won't work.
People can bypass it with tunnels , be they VPN's or oil pipelines or actual tunnels.

The age verification only applies to sites that have more than one third dodgy content. So you can cheat.
Stuff like the old container switcheroo with matching paperwork.

And besides it only applies to people who register. And who's going to pay to register to view the trial before you sign up to a dodgy site ? Or register if you want to smuggle in Crossmaglen

Hurrache · 23-06-2019 02:39PM

Apparently there's also a plot within the Tories to have Johnson gone within a day of being PM via an immediate no confidence vote.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-06-2019 02:43PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

Headline in the Scottish edition of the Sunday Times

Boris victory "Will End Union"

Be interested to see when that referendum gets called, if those Tories who were Happy to lose Scotland as the price of getting brexit, will still be happy to see them leave the Union.

I want and hope Scotland leaves and stands up as an independent country.
It’ll be a rocky transition but far from impossible.

Sam Russell · 23-06-2019 03:01PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Apparently there's also a plot within the Tories to have Johnson gone within a day of being PM via an immediate no confidence vote.

If that is true, then those MPs just need to go to TM and inform her, formally or informally, that they will bring him down within a day of him being nominated as PM, and if believed by TM, she will be duty bound to advise HM QE II of those facts, that he will not be able to command a majority in the Conservative Party or alternatively in the HoC, and advise HM that a GE be called.

That would be some call by TM.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-06-2019 03:06PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

If that is true, then those MPs just need to go to TM and inform her, formally or informally, that they will bring him down within a day of him being nominated as PM, and if believed by TM, she will be duty bound to advise HM QE II of those facts, that he will not be able to command a majority in the Conservative Party or alternatively in the HoC, and advise HM that a GE be called.

That would be some call by TM.

Didn’t he backstab her in a big way?
She’s be well within her rights to rat on him to her maj

What happens then though

trashcan · 23-06-2019 03:08PM

First Up wrote: »

Their main motivation is not to be Irish.

I've long suspected this too. It's much more about not having anything to do with the rest of the island than it is about remaining with Britain.

Sam Russell · 23-06-2019 03:17PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Didn’t he backstab her in a big way?
She’s be well within her rights to rat on him to her maj

What happens then though

General Election.

Hurrache · 23-06-2019 03:19PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

If that is true, then those MPs just need to go to TM and inform her, formally or informally, that they will bring him down within a day of him being nominated as PM, and if believed by TM, she will be duty bound to advise HM QE II of those facts, that he will not be able to command a majority in the Conservative Party or alternatively in the HoC, and advise HM that a GE be called.

That would be some call by TM.

That indeed is their plan.

Laois_Man · 23-06-2019 03:22PM

TM will not destroy the Tory party just to 5h1t on BJ - her loyalty to the Tory party is, in a way, just about the only redeeming feature she has!

I also find it hard to believe that other Tory's would do something to bring about a General Election - barely a single one of them, if even one of them, are in a secure seat!

Charles Babbage · 23-06-2019 03:25PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

TM will not destroy the Tory party just to 5h1t on BJ - her loyalty to the Tory party is, in a way, just about the only redeeming feature she has!

I also find it hard to believe that other Tory's would do something to bring about a General Election - barely a single one of them, if even one of them, are in a secure seat!

Some of them, in remain areas, might well believe that standing up to Boris would increase their chances in their constituency.

Laois_Man · 23-06-2019 03:29PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Some of them, in remain areas, might well believe that standing up to Boris would increase their chances in their constituency.

Even those won't want to be relegated to membership of a party that is the third, or possibly even the fourth largest party in the HoC

Perish the thought that the great conservative party (to them) might actually end up as the junior partner in a coalition with PM Nigel Farage!

Sam Russell · 23-06-2019 03:56PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Even those won't want to be relegated to membership of a party that is the third, or possibly even the fourth largest party in the HoC

Perish the thought that the great conservative party (to them) might actually end up as the junior partner in a coalition with PM Nigel Farage!

But some may put Country ahead of Party.

Unlikely, I know.

trellheim · 23-06-2019 04:05PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

But some may put Country ahead of Party.

Unlikely, I know.

As I posted above the current score is 322 to 319 . At that rate it only requires a 1% voting change to beat an all-in no-confidence vote so you only need to shake loose three or four mps

First Up · 23-06-2019 04:05PM

Sam Russell wrote:

But some may put Country ahead of Party.

Unlikely, I know.

I think it is seat first, party second and the country a distant third.

I've heard numerous tory MPs explain with a straight face that keeping the party intact is the priority. I don't think it had occurred to them that it might be anything else.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-06-2019 04:08PM

First Up wrote: »

I think it is seat first, party second and the country a distant third.

I've heard numerous tory MPs explain with a straight face that keeping the party intact is the priority. I don't think it had occurred to them that it might be anything else.

That’s been apparent since Cameron Calling the referendum on thinking he could see off the rebels within his party. And it’s ongoing

Is this going to be addressed at any point ?

A conservative squabble lead to all his. And it’s a disaster.

Surely they’ll be held to acount

First Up · 23-06-2019 04:21PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

Surely theyâ€™ll be held to acount

Corbyn in unelectable so I'm not sure they will.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-06-2019 04:31PM

First Up wrote: »

Corbyn in unelectable so I'm not sure they will.

British press saw to that.

But is it true?

When Boris comes back from Brussels with exactly the same failure and lack of understanding that the deal is done, will the focus shift into needing a new approach? I’d say Corbyn is far more competent and able to work a totally different deal than mays.

First Up · 23-06-2019 04:44PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

British press saw to that.

By reporting what he says?

When Boris comes back from Brussels with exactly the same failure and lack of understanding that the deal is done, will the focus shift into needing a new approach? Iâ€™d say Corbyn is far more competent and able to work a totally different deal than mays.[/quote]

All evidence to the contrary. Labour are as fractured as the Tories and Corbyn has exactly the same chance of a totally different deal as BoJo - i.e none

Stop moaning ffs · 23-06-2019 04:55PM

Maybe.
Labour is lost and divided.
But not one person in the Tory party has the key to unlock this. Bluster and hull****.
Time for new thinking maybe.

First Up · 23-06-2019 05:16PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

Maybe. Labour is lost and divided. But not one person in the Tory party has the key to unlock this. Bluster and hull****. Time for new thinking maybe.

The new thinking needs to extend to the electorate as well as politicians.

There is no magic bullet or golden key for this. The UK is in for a long slow and painful education in how the world works in the 21st century.

How it goes from here is anyone's guess but it won't be quick, or pretty.

Laois_Man · 23-06-2019 05:34PM

First Up wrote: »

By reporting what he says?

By misreporting everything - e.g. He didn't bow his head low enough when laying a wreath on reemergence day - he doesn't care as much as May!

Ridiculous!

Sam Russell · 23-06-2019 05:50PM

The Tory press are attacking the couple who recorded the BJ fracas (deliberately) in the normal 'attack the messenger' rather than report the message.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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