Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

Nody wrote: »

I disagree; they are sitting on the side line until the PM is in place. They will then inform the new PM that their votes are still his as long as NI get's the billion pounds and they don't get any special rules; if not they will vote to throw the PM out.

As both PMs are promising Brexit without the border I don't think they are overly concerned yet; not until / if the PM starts going for a Labour pull in to their deal in some form which is unlikely to fly anyway.

Both prospective PMs could also promise to reverse the rotation of the Earth.. not much of a promise though. And a bit foolhardy to sit back happy with an undeliverable promise.

Joe_ Public

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It’s mad right? Anything could happen especially with Boris at the helm.
Fact remains the next PM has the same wall his predecessor faced. He’s amazing at spin is Boris. How will he spin it when it’s on him?

Totally bonkers. As a famous Englishman once almost said, it's "madder than Mad Jack McMad, the winner of last years Mr Mad Man competition." I'm actually willing to give Johnson some credit and trust he isn't delusional or egotistical enough to think he can still go and tame Brussels and land the UK's burning plane with one wing and no fuselage safely on the runway. There's got to be some sort of plan there for how he doesn't deliver brexit. Either that or he scuppers the whole thing in some spectacular midair collision. Going to be a crazy month or two ahead, of that i'm certain.

Patser

So Scotland annoyed and talking of 2nd referendum, Northern Ireland seriously mentioning a referendum and now question starting to be asked in Wales!

Wales! Sure its not even a kingdom and voted yes to Brexit but still

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1142462197701984256

Laois_Man

The Mail claiming a poll taken since yesterdays domestic dispute story broke gives Jeremy Hunt has a three point lead with all voters...

The caveat is though - he still leads amongst the Tory's!

Water John

More links than revealed between Johnson and Bannon. Left on the cutting room floor initially but their importance is now to be seen;
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/22/video-reveals-steve-bannon-links-to-boris-johnson

Bannon even co-wrote his Ministerial resignation speech.

Peregrinus

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Was the agreement not ‘the DUP have an agreement with Theresa May. Not the Conservative party’?

Thought I heard that a some point

Other way around. DUP have always been clear that their deal is with the Tory party, not with whoever happens to lead it at any point in time, and a change in leadership (in either party) does not invalidate or affect the deal.

Zubeneschamali

Boris is pretending to think he can "disaggregate' the WA - dump the backstop, 'reserve' the £39bn, but keep the implementation period, during which he'll negotiate a FTA.

Presumably the EU will allow this cherrypicking because they are afraid the UK will crash out.

https://twitter.com/BackBoris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=19

Akrasia

This telegraph headline is a new low


"Left-wing neighbours admit to taping Boris Johnson row with partner Carrie Symonds"

[url]Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/22/left-wing-neighbours-admit-taping-boris-johnson-row-girlfriend/[/url]

lawred2

Akrasia wrote: »

This telegraph headline is a new low


"Left-wing neighbours admit to taping Boris Johnson row with partner Carrie Symonds"

[url]Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/22/left-wing-neighbours-admit-taping-boris-johnson-row-girlfriend/[/url]

They 'admit' to recording?

As opposed to what? Accidently recording something?

Gas

johnnyskeleton

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Boris is pretending to think he can "disaggregate' the WA - dump the backstop, 'reserve' the £39bn, but keep the implementation period, during which he'll negotiate a FTA.

Presumably the EU will allow this cherrypicking because they are afraid the UK will crash out.

https://twitter.com/BackBoris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=19

Whats notable is that some EU leaders have speculated as to the potential consequences of the UK not paying the money it owes, preferring instead the general "breach your obligations under international law", some of the consequences could be:

1. Seizure of UK Gov assets within the EU e.g. their money on deposit with the ECJ, rebate due (not sure when exactly its to be repaid so unsure of this exactly), investments in common ventures e.g. Gallileo, PESCO etc, potentially stop the pensions and severance of UK MEPs (not sure they will do this though as the individuals could potentially sue in their own right) etc. So they "save" / "reserve" £39bn but the EU will "save" / "reserve" several billion of UK assets and non payment of liabilities to offset the loss. Granted, it wont be the full amount, but still.

2. Sue in the UK for breach of contract. UK will defend this on a jurisdictional basis e.g. that it is an EU agreement and all such obligations cease once art 50 period ends. I accept that they do have a stateable defence, but its not clear if it will succeed. EU Treaty law will cease, but the multi annual funding meetings are not strictly speaking covered by EU law as I understand them (but again its open to debate). If they win on jurisdiction, then surely the ECJ has the power to determine if they have breached their obligation or not. I wonder which way they will rule. The UK hasnt stated any substantive basis upon which they dont owe the money, so whichever court has jurisdiction will likely find against them.

3. Loss of reputation, sterling drops as markets percieve them as defaulters. Again, even if a clever argument about jurisdiction wins in court, China, Russia, Saudi etc will all be cautious about this supposed safe haven that doesnt repay money if it doesnt suit them politically.

4. They talk about GATT 24 and how the EU "can" agree to a temporary free trade area. If the UK reneges on its lawful debts, far from agreeing to a free trade area, the EU could seek to impose sanctions on the UK pursuant to the WTO dispute resolution system. I doubt they would do this for medicines or other essentials, but on everything else.

5. My theory is that part of the EU sees a chaotic hard brexit as an opportunity. Banking is the jewel in the UKs crown, making up something like 6% of GDP generally but indirectly making the city of London a financial powerhouse. Frankfurt, Dublin etc would like some of this. And despite what many city bankers would like you to believe about the UKs unique talent base of people etc, in reality, London grew as the safe haven in the EU but with strong commonwealth and US links. The EU member states cannot be seen to be directly competeing with the UK for this business at the moment, as that would be contrary to EU rules and ettiqute. But, if the UK leaves on a no deal, Id expect a lot of EU packages to encourage moveable financial firms to relocate inside the EU. When the Brexiteers talk about the German manufacturing lobby putting pressure on the EU, the same cannot be said for Uk based banks putting pressure on the london government. Theyll make their downside risk money on the no deal chaos, then simply relocate to Frankfurt with a nice EU relocation grant.

I wonder what Boris thinks about these consequences of withholding the money they owe, quite apart from any semse of shame or scruples being a gentleman debt defaulter

volchitsa

"Gentleman debt defaulters" have been part of the aristocracy since, well, forever.
Some took the view that it was their right as gentlemen not to bother paying up, especially to those whom they saw as being beneath them.

I wouldn't imagine Boris has a problem with defaulting if it suits him.

Tikki Wang Wang

Liam Fox on Marr seems to have seen some sort of light.

Professor Moriarty

Tikki Wang Wang wrote: »

Liam Fox on Marr seems to have seen some sort of light.

The shining light was David Milliband.

volchitsa

Tikki Wang Wang wrote: »

Liam Fox on Marr seems to have seen some sort of light.

I know it was an obvious joke but Marr made me laugh with his comment about "Fox supports Hunt" head line.
(Yeah ok I'm superficial like that.)

Professor Moriarty

volchitsa wrote: »

I know it was an obvious joke but Marr made me laugh with his comment about "Fox supports Hunt" head line.
(Yeah ok I'm superficial like that.)

I liked his joke about people needing to be careful when pronouncing his hashtag HuntyMcHuntFace.

Sam Russell

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Whats notable is that some EU leaders have speculated as to the potential consequences of the UK not paying the money it owes, preferring instead the general "breach your obligations under international law", some of the consequences could be:

1. Seizure of UK Gov assets within the EU e.g. their money on deposit with the ECJ, rebate due (not sure when exactly its to be repaid so unsure of this exactly), investments in common ventures e.g. Gallileo, PESCO etc, potentially stop the pensions and severance of UK MEPs (not sure they will do this though as the individuals could potentially sue in their own right) etc. So they "save" / "reserve" £39bn but the EU will "save" / "reserve" several billion of UK assets and non payment of liabilities to offset the loss. Granted, it wont be the full amount, but still.

2. Sue in the UK for breach of contract. UK will defend this on a jurisdictional basis e.g. that it is an EU agreement and all such obligations cease once art 50 period ends. I accept that they do have a stateable defence, but its not clear if it will succeed. EU Treaty law will cease, but the multi annual funding meetings are not strictly speaking covered by EU law as I understand them (but again its open to debate). If they win on jurisdiction, then surely the ECJ has the power to determine if they have breached their obligation or not. I wonder which way they will rule. The UK hasnt stated any substantive basis upon which they dont owe the money, so whichever court has jurisdiction will likely find against them.

3. Loss of reputation, sterling drops as markets percieve them as defaulters. Again, even if a clever argument about jurisdiction wins in court, China, Russia, Saudi etc will all be cautious about this supposed safe haven that doesnt repay money if it doesnt suit them politically.

4. They talk about GATT 24 and how the EU "can" agree to a temporary free trade area. If the UK reneges on its lawful debts, far from agreeing to a free trade area, the EU could seek to impose sanctions on the UK pursuant to the WTO dispute resolution system. I doubt they would do this for medicines or other essentials, but on everything else.

5. My theory is that part of the EU sees a chaotic hard brexit as an opportunity. Banking is the jewel in the UKs crown, making up something like 6% of GDP generally but indirectly making the city of London a financial powerhouse. Frankfurt, Dublin etc would like some of this. And despite what many city bankers would like you to believe about the UKs unique talent base of people etc, in reality, London grew as the safe haven in the EU but with strong commonwealth and US links. The EU member states cannot be seen to be directly competeing with the UK for this business at the moment, as that would be contrary to EU rules and ettiqute. But, if the UK leaves on a no deal, Id expect a lot of EU packages to encourage moveable financial firms to relocate inside the EU. When the Brexiteers talk about the German manufacturing lobby putting pressure on the EU, the same cannot be said for Uk based banks putting pressure on the london government. Theyll make their downside risk money on the no deal chaos, then simply relocate to Frankfurt with a nice EU relocation grant.

I wonder what Boris thinks about these consequences of withholding the money they owe, quite apart from any semse of shame or scruples being a gentleman debt defaulter

Well, let us start with aviation. EU rescinds their proposed temporary suggestion to allow some UK aircraft limited access to EU airports.

EU could require visas for each and every UK passport holder to have a one for every trip.

EU raises inspection rate for every UK truck entering the EU, plus the driving licence requirements. Certificate of Origin requirements might be another area to cause problems.

There are lots of ways the EU can make life difficult for the UK, within the law, and, like non-tariff barriers, but subtle beyond expectation.

Stop moaning ffs

Is everyone complicit in this mission to take Boris down? Even his father? Or is he just incredibly ignorant and short of memeory?
This is appalling

https://twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1142375439798808577?s=21

Beechwoodspark

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Is everyone complicit in this mission to take Boris down? Even his father? Or is he just incredibly ignorant and short of memeory?
This is appalling

https://twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1142375439798808577?s=21

Was that this mornin or when?

Stop moaning ffs

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Was that this mornin or when?

Today or yesterday.

Cal4567

If the media such as The Guardian are going hell for leather full steam to try and disrupt the BJ campaign, notwithstanding that the candidate is certainly given them enough ammunition to do so, this will just harden even more the Tory members to anoint Johnson. For them it is as much ‘Stop Corbyn’ as it is Brexit.

If, as feared, the media have other angles to show up Johnson, surely this will give him victim status. This will give him an even clearer run to No. 10.

It’s all very tawdry and sleazy. All it seems to have done is given a dent, a scrape, to Boris. No more. The Tory members have made up their mind now. The majority want a Brexiteer as PM. That alone rules Jeremy Hunt out.

Cal4567

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Today or yesterday.

It was last October and got a fair few comments at the time. Not an unusual comment from a 65+ Tory who would have been an adult through most of the Troubles, had families or friends serving in the UK army in the north. Many of who would be the Tory members now voting in this election.

Stop moaning ffs

Cal4567 wrote: »

It was last October and got a fair few comments at the time. Not an unusual comment from a 65+ Tory who would have been an adult through most of the Troubles, had families or friends serving in the UK army in the north. Many of who would be the Tory members now voting in this election.

Was it? It’s trending on twitter today. That’s teally odd that it would pop back up after some time.
Youd have to wonder how or why that is.
Definitely seems to be an organised assault on Boris. From where though?


*its also popped up on a few Brexit /anti brexit FB groups im in.

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Is everyone complicit in this mission to take Boris down? Even his father? Or is he just incredibly ignorant and short of memeory?
This is appalling

https://twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1142375439798808577?s=21

Imagine how the DUP feel about being lumped in with the Taigs. Another blithe misunderstanding is history shows that the 'Irish' don't confine their 'shooting' to 'each other'. English elitism at its finest.

branie2

How long till we get the results about the new PM?

Water John

The hustings are going on for a whole month TMK.

Stop moaning ffs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Imagine how the DUP feel about being lumped in with the Taigs. Another blithe misunderstanding is history shows that the 'Irish' don't confine their 'shooting' to 'each other'. English elitism at its finest.

Something the DUP know deep down and it scalds them is that everyone in Britain just thinks of them as paddies same as us no difference.
In part I think it fuels their insistence that they’re british

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Something the DUP know deep down and it scales them is that everyone in Britain just Binks of them as paddies same as us no difference.
In part I think it fuels their insistence that they’re british

Exactly. It's like an adult trying to leave the house with a toddler clinging to their leg.

Peregrinus

branie2 wrote: »

How long till we get the results about the new PM?

Oh, God, not for weeks. If neither Hunt nor Johnson withdraws, then the choice is made by a postal ballot of members, with the results being announced in the week of 22 July. The time lapse is to allow the candidates to go tripping around the country attending local hustings, debates, etc.

It's not that there's much doubt about the result. It's just there can be no serious encounter with reality among Tories, and no real confronting of the decisions the UK must make, until this process has dragged itself out to the end. And Oct 31 gets ever closer.

First Up

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

Something the DUP know deep down and it scales them is that everyone in Britain just Binks of them as paddies same as us no difference. In part I think it fuels their insistence that they’re british

Their main motivation is not to be Irish. They would look for independence before that. The term "Our Wee Country" is often heard and may be on the increase.

Stop moaning ffs

First Up wrote: »

Their main motivation is not to be Irish. They would look for independence before that. The term "Our Wee Country" is often heard and may be on the increase.

Seen that myself.
I’d hope one day we’d have a united ireland.
Then I look at them and think how completely awful it would be for us to have them involved in our politics or decision making.

That’s if they took their seats. They’d probably abstain.