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Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • #1922
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    lawred2 wrote: »
    Are these Tories not a minority government?

    Why does their next leader get to be an automatic PM?

    I would guess because its, theoretically anyway, they still have the numbers. The opposition would be entirely free to move a vote of no confidence in the new leader, though i'm not sure it would be a good idea the way things are panning out.


  • #1923
    Infini
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,653 ✭✭✭Infini


    In fairness Ancapailldorcha the UK has been giving every chance to come up with a credible alternative or try and be realistic about thing's but the truth is your own government is essentially ignoring reality and intent on pursuing a self destructive policy that suits a minority of people and the conservative party before the common good of the British people. Varadakar might be just putting out a heads up to warn people that patience is running out because the conservatives look like they're going to put Boris in charge who's talked about leaving on Halloween no matter what so basically they've made their bed and now have to lie in it.

    There's only so much that can be done but the truth is that if the British Government is intent on pursuing such a stupid and delusional policy no matter what warning's are given then they're the ones that will be held to account for the consequences of their folly, blaming the EU will do nothing for them they made the choice, they executed it, they suffer the consequences both Diplomatically, Economically and Politically and whoever comes back after such a disaster will basically be at the mercy of whoever is there and it will be essentially a policy of this is what's on offer its that or nothing because the UK will have nothing to offer.

    I honestly think October will be the final nail in all this one way or another, either the UK abandons this entirely or it crashes out there won't be any hope of an extension unless there's an announcement of another referendum IMO because I think most want this done, the French want it done and I'd say other's want it done one way or another, they'd likely give Ireland all the support they can to offset the damage of this but like I said the UK pays the biggest price if they're foolish enough to execute this vainglorious BS project in the end.


  • #1924
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    That's disheartening from Varadkar to say the least.

    I think he and Simon Coveney have done a splendid job in ensuring that the EU acts with Irish interests in mind. Unfortunately, I am somewhat out of touch with Irish politics but I'm thankful that he's among the EU27 agitating for patience and care for the negotiations with the UK. However, if this disheartening news is anything to go by it would seem that the EU has reached its limit. Any chain is only as strong as its weakest link. If some EU member states have run out of patience with Britain then I can't see the Irish government being able to do all that much to help the UK gain another extension.

    I think the EU still wants Brexit to be cancelled. However, it has prepared for Brexit much more scrupulously and thoroughly than the UK. It's even shown better form in acting for UK citizens than their own government. Meanwhile the Conservatives continue to bicker amongst themselves about how loves Brexit most aided and abetted by Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party. The Greens and the Liberal Democrats are electorally irrelevant in Westminster while the SNP pursues its own separatist agenda.

    There's not enough time for another general election even if the government were of a mind to call one. It'll be 22 July when Boris Johnson is crowned Tory leader. One can only hope he experiences some sort of Damascene moment while lounging in one of his Estates but that seems unlikely. I think the EU would grant an extension to facilitate a People's Vote. Maybe. But from Varadkar's tweet, this seems a stretch. My pool of optimism grows ever more shallow.

    It was always going to be like this.


    I agree with your sentiment but if you think back, Macron is far past having lost patience. It’s really really bizarre Leo would use such language, and to be fair there are comments from him along with this for full context and he says he has
    ‘Endless patience’.

    Eu and Ireland have been totally coordinated in messaging this while time.
    I’d say this was carefully placed along with the Dutch PMs remarks today to let them know, renegotiating isn’t happening. It’s this deal or it’s no deal.
    In order to shake them out of the stupor they’re in.


  • #1925
    PeadarCo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    Stop moaning ffs wrote:
    I agree with your sentiment but if you think back, Macron is far past having lost patience. It’s really really bizarre Leo would use such language, and to be fair there are comments from him along with this for full context and he says he has ‘Endless patience’.

    The issue is some people in the UK think the threat of a no deal can be used as a threat/bargaining tool against the EU ie the EU is afraid of a no deal. All Leo is doing is pointing out that a lot of EU countries are fed up and are not afraid of a no deal, Macron being a well known example.

    It's a reminder to the tories that using the threat of a no deal by the UK won't work.


  • #1926
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    PeadarCo wrote: »
    The issue is some people in the UK think the threat of a no deal can be used as a threat/bargaining tool against the EU ie the EU is afraid of a no deal. All Leo is doing is pointing out that a lot of EU countries are fed up and are not afraid of a no deal, Macron being a well known example.

    It's a reminder to the tories that using the threat of a no deal by the UK won't work.

    Are Boris etc even listening though? They haven’t been to date.


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  • #1927
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I think the message from Leo & co is as much for the remain side, and especially Labour, as the tory brexiteers. They're just about a lost cause at this stage. I listened to 4 of them sitting around the table on Sky after the leadership vote and they were talking about the backstop as if it could be solved tomorrow. Alternative arrangements, still as simple as that. Was reminded of an earlier tweet by Leo to the effect of the UK "talking to itself." Beth Rigby had a Johnson guy on earlier who when asked if 31 October was still feasible, replied that they might just need a very short extension while Boris renegotiated the WA. Forget about them. It's up to Labour and other remain parties to get their house in order, thats who leo and other european voices should be directing at.


  • #1928
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,434 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Stop moaning ffs wrote: »
    Well of course they would.

    But it isnt even stealthily put. He’s telling them eat what’s in front of you or eff off. And in barely diplomatic language.

    He also says that is not the one that is hostile to the UK. I'm not really sure what else he can say in response to the Tories. They are talking about renegotiating the WA or ditching the backstop, all within the next four months and this is virtually a red line for them.


  • #1929
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,929 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Infini wrote: »
    In fairness Ancapailldorcha the UK has been giving every chance to come up with a credible alternative or try and be realistic about thing's but the truth is your own government is essentially ignoring reality and intent on pursuing a self destructive policy that suits a minority of people and the conservative party before the common good of the British people. Varadakar might be just putting out a heads up to warn people that patience is running out because the conservatives look like they're going to put Boris in charge who's talked about leaving on Halloween no matter what so basically they've made their bed and now have to lie in it.

    There's only so much that can be done but the truth is that if the British Government is intent on pursuing such a stupid and delusional policy no matter what warning's are given then they're the ones that will be held to account for the consequences of their folly, blaming the EU will do nothing for them they made the choice, they executed it, they suffer the consequences both Diplomatically, Economically and Politically and whoever comes back after such a disaster will basically be at the mercy of whoever is there and it will be essentially a policy of this is what's on offer its that or nothing because the UK will have nothing to offer.

    I honestly think October will be the final nail in all this one way or another, either the UK abandons this entirely or it crashes out there won't be any hope of an extension unless there's an announcement of another referendum IMO because I think most want this done, the French want it done and I'd say other's want it done one way or another, they'd likely give Ireland all the support they can to offset the damage of this but like I said the UK pays the biggest price if they're foolish enough to execute this vainglorious BS project in the end.

    All correct though I resent somewhat the “your own government” comment. I voted Lib Dem and I'm not from the UK. I can always clear off back home to rural Ireland and, I don't know go back to rearing sheep or something. A lot of decent people here are about to be stripped of their rights to live and work in 27 EU countries and they had no say in it.

    The problem is that a lot of people are going to take a hit though. The EU migrants in the UK and the Brits living in the EU though I've no sympathy with the pensioners sipping margaritas in Spanish villas moaning about foreigners. Then there's various UK and EU businesses who operate using just in time supply chains, Irish farmers who sell to the UK, various smaller UK and EU firms who might not be able to take the hit and so on... Brexiters love to remind us they're prepared to suffer but funnily enough, it's usually wealthy older people who make this claim in my experience..
    Stop moaning ffs wrote: »
    I agree with your sentiment but if you think back, Macron is far past having lost patience. It’s really really bizarre Leo would use such language, and to be fair there are comments from him along with this for full context and he says he has
    ‘Endless patience’.

    Eu and Ireland have been totally coordinated in messaging this while time.
    I’d say this was carefully placed along with the Dutch PMs remarks today to let them know, renegotiating isn’t happening. It’s this deal or it’s no deal.
    In order to shake them out of the stupor they’re in.

    Reversing Brexit puts the Irish border issue back in the box. Leo therefore has no choice but to try and facilitate the UK staying in for as long as possible.

    People here seem to genuinely think that Johnson is some kind of mastermind who can renegotiate. It's terrifying, frankly. I come from a Unionist family and I'd family members try to flog me the same shtick when I visited home recently.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #1930
    Berserker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Berserker


    PeadarCo wrote: »
    The issue is some people in the UK think the threat of a no deal can be used as a threat/bargaining tool against the EU ie the EU is afraid of a no deal. All Leo is doing is pointing out that a lot of EU countries are fed up and are not afraid of a no deal, Macron being a well known example.

    It's a reminder to the tories that using the threat of a no deal by the UK won't work.

    Guessing that your implying that he's terrified of a no deal Brexit? The consequences of a no deal Brexit on the island would be significant. Macron is speaking out because he's concerned about the knock on effect that it'll have on France. I'm not buying the fed up line at all. If Boris threatens to leave without a deal, I think the EU will open up talks.


  • #1931
    54and56
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,862 ✭✭✭54and56


    Berserker wrote: »
    Guessing that your implying that he's terrified of a no deal Brexit? The consequences of a no deal Brexit on the island would be significant. Macron is speaking out because he's concerned about the knock on effect that it'll have on France. I'm not buying the fed up line at all. If Boris threatens to leave without a deal, I think the EU will open up talks.

    When you say "open up talks" do you mean the WA and/or the PD?


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  • #1932
    PeadarCo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    Berserker wrote:
    Guessing that your implying that he's terrified of a no deal Brexit? The consequences of a no deal Brexit on the island would be significant. Macron is speaking out because he's concerned about the knock on effect that it'll have on France. I'm not buying the fed up line at all. If Boris threatens to leave without a deal, I think the EU will open up talks.

    Why would the EU open up talks? A no deal just increases the EUs leverage. The UK needs a deal sooner or later. Close to half the UKs trade is with the EU, over half when you factor in EU trade deals that comes with membership.

    So grand the UK goes for a no deal and in a matter of weeks if not days it has to come back to the negotiating table. And guess what the preconditions for talks will be(what's in the withdrawal agreement). And not only that the UK now as 3rd party needs to satisfy all EU governments and in some cases regional assemblies in countries like Belgium.


  • #1933
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I doubt its that simple that a new PM just continues on as things are, threatening no deal and the EU blink at 5 minutes to midnight as was supposed to happen last time. There will be a growing public momentum against it, public demonstrations, possible strike actions. The anger isn't exclusive to leave people who think democracy is being thwarted by not getting a hard brexit. People are just as entitled to anger at the prospect of a no deal for which there isn't and never has been any democratic mandate at all. This will all play out in public just as much as in parliament i think. Lot of twists and turns before we reach end game yet.


  • #1934
    Infini
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,653 ✭✭✭Infini


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    All correct though I resent somewhat the “your own government” comment. I voted Lib Dem and I'm not from the UK. I can always clear off back home to rural Ireland and, I don't know go back to rearing sheep or something. A lot of decent people here are about to be stripped of their rights to live and work in 27 EU countries and they had no say in it.

    I don't mean your own government in a bad way of course but rather they're there meant to be responsible for all of those in the UK including yourself not just their own voters but what they're doing is beyond sheer incompetence and well into the realm of political malice. Being in government doesn't let one just ignore a significant amount of people just because it suits them and neither does it excuse them for pursuing blatantly incompetent policies that have absolutely no benefit and are of pure ideological stupidity. Alot of people are about to be stripped of their right's but the ONLY way this is going to change is basically if people start mass protests on a level that will force these delusional fools to listen.
    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Reversing Brexit puts the Irish border issue back in the box. Leo therefore has no choice but to try and facilitate the UK staying in for as long as possible.

    Reversing Brexit does put the issue back in the box its just that while Ireland can have infinite patience the rest of Europe might not and that's the thing. If the UK crashes out the Border becomes a serious problem and only reunification will remove that issue as the UK and the DUP failed their voters by selling politically defective and idiotic policies.
    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    People here seem to genuinely think that Johnson is some kind of mastermind who can renegotiate. It's terrifying, frankly. I come from a Unionist family and I'd family members try to flog me the same shtick when I visited home recently.

    Honestly it sounds like some of your family really has absolutely no idea how incompetent and utterly opportunistic Boris is, I mean what are they basing this on even? It's actually daft in a way how some either don't know or don't want to know the reality of things expecially in this day and age (though the Russian Troll Federation obscuring things with their "IRA" is one reason). Of course there's some out there who dont want to know or face reality either.....


  • #1935
    Christy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    All correct though I resent somewhat the “your own government” comment. I voted Lib Dem and I'm not from the UK. I can always clear off back home to rural Ireland and, I don't know go back to rearing sheep or something. A lot of decent people here are about to be stripped of their rights to live and work in 27 EU countries and they had no say in it.

    The problem is that a lot of people are going to take a hit though. The EU migrants in the UK and the Brits living in the EU though I've no sympathy with the pensioners sipping margaritas in Spanish villas moaning about foreigners. Then there's various UK and EU businesses who operate using just in time supply chains, Irish farmers who sell to the UK, various smaller UK and EU firms who might not be able to take the hit and so on... Brexiters love to remind us they're prepared to suffer but funnily enough, it's usually wealthy older people who make this claim in my experience..



    Reversing Brexit puts the Irish border issue back in the box. Leo therefore has no choice but to try and facilitate the UK staying in for as long as possible.

    People here seem to genuinely think that Johnson is some kind of mastermind who can renegotiate. It's terrifying, frankly. I come from a Unionist family and I'd family members try to flog me the same shtick when I visited home recently.

    The UK will never revoke article 50 while they can keep extending and pretending.

    At a certain point the UK's bluff needs to be called and they pick an option. At least then we can plan for it effectively (and they can get round to changing their minds).


  • #1936
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,376 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    How many Tory MPs would it take to threaten to quit the party if BJ gets elected leader of the party, and therefore the next PM? And if they did, would it change the Party faithful vote? And what then if he did get elected - a GE would follow as night follows day.

    How many - 10 - 20 - 30?

    Just 10 would cost them their majority if you include the DUP. At least one third of the Tory MPs are remainers, probably more - that is more than 100 MPs.

    Rory Stewart has already said he will not serve under BJ.


  • #1937
    Tell me how
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,075 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    How many Tory MPs would it take to threaten to quit the party if BJ gets elected leader of the party, and therefore the next PM? And if they did, would it change the Party faithful vote? And what then if he did get elected - a GE would follow as night follows day.

    How many - 10 - 20 - 30?

    Just 10 would cost them their majority if you include the DUP. At least one third of the Tory MPs are remainers, probably more - that is more than 100 MPs.

    Rory Stewart has already said he will not serve under BJ.

    I think the die is cast in terms of the party faithful vote, they are more likely to flirt with Farage coming on board than to reverse the path which they are on at the moment should they lose members.

    Think a GE is the most likely outcome before the end of the year with the EU allowing an extension for that purpose.


  • #1938
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    How many Tory MPs would it take to threaten to quit the party if BJ gets elected leader of the party, and therefore the next PM? And if they did, would it change the Party faithful vote? And what then if he did get elected - a GE would follow as night follows day.

    How many - 10 - 20 - 30?

    Just 10 would cost them their majority if you include the DUP. At least one third of the Tory MPs are remainers, probably more - that is more than 100 MPs.

    Rory Stewart has already said he will not serve under BJ.

    Fairly sure Dominic Grieve has said the same


  • #1939
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    When Stewart and Grieve say they won't serve under Johnson, they are talking about cabinet positions. They will remain Tory MPs.


  • #1940
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,542 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Berserker wrote: »
    Guessing that your implying that he's terrified of a no deal Brexit? The consequences of a no deal Brexit on the island would be significant. Macron is speaking out because he's concerned about the knock on effect that it'll have on France. I'm not buying the fed up line at all. If Boris threatens to leave without a deal, I think the EU will open up talks.
    The EU and its member states have been remarkably consistent, remarkably clear and remarkably unanimous in saying that the WA is not up for renogotiation. This is not a bluff, and there is no reason to think that it is. It's exactly the position that you would expect the EU to take, given its strategic position and its interests and objectives.

    While Brexiters cling to the belief that the EU will "blink" and change its position on this, we can hardly not notice that Brexiters have, right from the get-go, been consistently wrong in their assessments of the positions the EU and its member states would take and the stances they would adopt. Every Brexiter prediction about this has been completely contradicted by how events have unfolded, every time, right from the start of this process. This is because the case for Brexit rests on a profound misunderstanding of what the EU is, how it works, and what the UK's place in and relationship with the EU is. And this is why the UK's negotiations with the EU have been such a train-wreck.

    The current view in Brexitland seems to be that, while the EU declined to reopen the WA for Teresa May, they will do so if asked by a PM who has a penis. And, doubling down on this, they seem determined to send in a PM who not only has a penis, but actually is one.

    Guys, guys! It's not about the genitals. The negotiations worked out the way they did not because of the personalities involved, but because of the positions and interests of the EU and the UK, and of the reality within which they must both operate. Changing the UK's PM does nothing at all to change anything that matters here.

    If the UK wants the EU to reopen the WA, they will have to radically alter their position in a way that makes it attractive for the EU to reopen the WA. Brexiter thinking seems to be "if we send in a PM who actually will go out with no deal rather than merely saying he will, this is a change in position which will make it attractive for the EU to reopen the WA". But, no, it isn't. The EU looked at no-deal in the face a long time ago - well before the UK did, if we're honest - and decided (a) we can cope with this, and (b) we can cope with it better than the UK can. So the increased possiblity of no deal will not change the EU's negotiating stance, and this remains so regardless of how big a dick the UK sends out to threaten no-deal.

    The UK would have to change its position in a much, much more radical way, e.g. by abandoning its red lines, in order to make it attractive to the EU to change its position and reopen the WA.


  • #1941
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Peter Foster - Europe editor of the Telegraph was a contributor on RTE Prime Time last tonight and reckons BJ's tactic will be to table a motion such that the HoC passes the WA but with an end-date on the Backstop. He could be right up to that point - but even that passing is not a given. But he then goes on to speculate that other member states will put pressure on Leo to accept a 5-7 year time-limit to avoid chaos in 5-7 weeks.;)

    They also speculated that BJ will know his stated intentions will result in an extremely short stint as PM and he will completely change course once he secures the job and head for a second referendum.


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  • #1942
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,542 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    Peter Foster - Europe editor of the Telegraph was a contributor on RTE Prime Time last tonight and reckons BJ's tactic will be to table a motion such that the HoC passes the WA but with an end-date on the Backstop.
    Or, to put it more accurately, such that the HoC doesn't pass the WA that has actually been agreed, but instead passes a fantasy WA of its own imagining that hasn't been agreed and that the EU has repeatedly declined to agree.
    Laois_Man wrote: »
    He could be right up to that point - but even that passing is not a given. But he then goes on to speculate that other member states will put pressure on Leo to accept a 5-7 year time-limit to avoid chaos in 5-7 weeks.;)
    I doubt this will work as they hope. Both self-interest and simple self-respect would prevent the EU from rewarding such behaviour as this. They do have other negotiations to conduct with other, grown-up countries. They won't want to give the world the impression that, when you are dealing with the EU, behavour such as this can secure any kind of advantage.
    Laois_Man wrote: »
    They also speculated that BJ will know his stated intentions will result in an extremely short stint as PM and he will completely change course once he secures the job and head for a second referendum.
    That might be a bit more plausible.


  • #1943
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,991 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    You would have no sympathy whatsoever for the ERG if Johnson changed his tune completely about a second referendum. They already know he's a self confessed liar. They are voting for a known liar.


  • #1944
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    People are just as entitled to anger at the prospect of a no deal for which there isn't and never has been any democratic mandate at all.

    They are entitled to it, but I don't see much sign of it. The Remain side seem very passive, resigned to "just getting on with it". There should be a million young people barricading Westminster 24/7 by now if they had a lick of sense.

    But even the Remainers seem to believe the British exceptionalist idea that nothing really bad will happen because, well, it's Britain, isn't it. The only talk of unrest is about how Leave voters will rebel if the Will of the People is denied.


  • #1945
    maynooth_rules
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,512 ✭✭✭maynooth_rules


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    Peter Foster - Europe editor of the Telegraph was a contributor on RTE Prime Time last tonight and reckons BJ's tactic will be to table a motion such that the HoC passes the WA but with an end-date on the Backstop. He could be right up to that point - but even that passing is not a given. But he then goes on to speculate that other member states will put pressure on Leo to accept a 5-7 year time-limit to avoid chaos in 5-7 weeks.;)

    They also speculated that BJ will know his stated intentions will result in an extremely short stint as PM and he will completely change course once he secures the job and head for a second referendum.
    I think this is where the EU may throw the UK a bone. Fine, England, Wales and Scotland can have a time limited backstop. But absolutly not for Northern Ireland. The British government have made the backstop become this almighty thorn when it didn't need to be.


  • #1946
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,277 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    maynooth_rules wrote: »
    I think this is where the EU may throw the UK a bone. Fine, England, Wales and Scotland can have a time limited backstop. But absolutly not for Northern Ireland. The British government have made the backstop become this almighty thorn when it didn't need to be.

    But the DUP are still the kingmaker
    And any "bone" that distinguishes NI from the UK will not fly with them.

    This is the whole genesis of this from back in December 2017.


  • #1947
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Tell me how wrote: »
    Think a GE is the most likely outcome before the end of the year with the EU allowing an extension for that purpose.

    Could Corbyns master plan be to continue to argue with himself over which way is best to sit on a fence in order to convince the Tories they will win a GE easily. Then the moment it is announced then Labour come out with an actual position on a second referendum / remain and win?


  • #1948
    Alan_P
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 264 ✭✭Alan_P


    maynooth_rules wrote: »
    I think this is where the EU may throw the UK a bone. Fine, England, Wales and Scotland can have a time limited backstop. But absolutly not for Northern Ireland. The British government have made the backstop become this almighty thorn when it didn't need to be.


    The EU don't care in the slightest about a backstop for England, Wales and Scotland. The requirement for it to apply to the whole UK was a UK demand, created by May's dependence on DUP votes. Restricting the backstop to NI was the original, simpler, cleaner solution, and reopening that possibility would be a reason to renegotiate. But how does that get through the HOC, given DUP resistance ?


  • #1949
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,542 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    funkey_monkey wrote: »
    There might be enough Labour votes to back it this time. ERG and other brexiteers will be desperate now to get going. HoC has only ever voted on a UK wide backstop - not a NI specific one.

    It is plain as day that GB MPs do not give a flying fig about NI and with the majority of NI political parties and business groups supporting the backstop, coupled with the EU election votes going mostly to pro backstop candidates then the possibility of this getting through the HoC without the support of the DUP is feasible.
    The ERG, or many of them, will vote against an NI-only backstop because, basically, they will vote against any deliverable form of Brexit so that they can continue to nourish their greivances.


  • #1950
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    funkey_monkey wrote: »
    I wouldn't be so sure about that. They are a mad bunch alright, but they will fall into line. They are mad for Brexit of any form:

    image.jpg

    Is that a poll of conservatives?


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  • #1951
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,542 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    funkey_monkey wrote: »
    There is an argument that if an end to the backstop in 5-7 years is such a bad thing that the EU could not support, then why are they 'allowing' one to occur in 3 months time.
    Because if we allow it today, the resulting hard border is not permanent: UK is in desparate need of a deal and there is leverage to get it to agree and commit to to the measures needed to restore the open border.

    Whereas if we give the UK a deal and then in 5 or 7 years a hard border eventuates, the UK has what it wants and there is no pressure on it to do anything about the border. So that's a permanent hard border.
    funkey_monkey wrote: »
    However, the EU stance has been so consistent and vocal on this issue that there is no way they can back down from it and save face.
    Also there is the bigger issue whereby if the EU switch to the UK proposition against the a smaller member nation then it would open a lot of conflict within the EU.
    Although I would not argue that some members might just want Ireland to pipe down - although I've read read anything about this specifically. Poland maybe?
    All of those reasons. But the main reason is, if the EU has to choose between different scenarios all of which lead to a hard border, then it's in its interests to choose the scenario in which the hard border is not the result of anything the EU has agreed to. This is much more important than the question of precisely when the hard border happens.
    funkey_monkey wrote: »
    I'm still not sure that a 2nd referendum would put sufficient daylight between the sides to comprehensively draw a line under this mess.
    Nothing will comprehensively draw a line under this mess until the passage of at least a generation. The object here is not generally satisfactory resolution; it's just harm minimisation.


This discussion has been closed.
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