Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

20-06-2019 01:08PM

Haven't been following any of this. Could Boris be the new PM today?

Hurrache · 20-06-2019 01:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Haven't been following any of this. Could Boris be the new PM today?

No, it'll eventually go to a postal vote for Tory party members when there's only 2 left so it'll be July 22nd.

Sparko · 20-06-2019 01:10PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Haven't been following any of this. Could Boris be the new PM today?

No - they will narrow it to Johnson and one of either Gove or Hunt today, then there will be a month of campaigning before all the Conservative members vote for one of them.

robinph · 20-06-2019 01:13PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Haven't been following any of this. Could Boris be the new PM today?

Only if Hunt and Gove drop out, although it would still take until tomorrow before May went to visit the Queen.

robinph · 20-06-2019 01:15PM

robinph wrote: »

Only if Hunt and Gove drop out, although it would still take until tomorrow before May went to visit the Queen.

And the Queen is currently at Ascot and would be mighty annoyed with a new PM interrupting her watching the horse racing.

20-06-2019 01:15PM

Kk. Thanks all.

ancapailldorcha · 20-06-2019 01:30PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Haven't been following any of this. Could Boris be the new PM today?

Hurrache wrote: »

No, it'll eventually go to a postal vote for Tory party members when there's only 2 left so it'll be July 22nd.

Sparko wrote: »

No - they will narrow it to Johnson and one of either Gove or Hunt today, then there will be a month of campaigning before all the Conservative members vote for one of them.

We expect the final two candidates to be known at 18:15. Then it's a vote from the membership in July as Hurrache says to decide on which of the final two will become the new leader and therefore PM.

Water John · 20-06-2019 01:43PM

Quite obvious now, with Hunt and Gove so close, Johnson will manouvere the next round to pick who he wishes to run against. I would say he wants Hunt as he would fear Gove. It would also be bonus Karma for him to knock Gove out.

Enzokk · 20-06-2019 01:46PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the backstop was the EU/Ireland's idea - but it was in the form of a border down the Irish sea. A UK wide backstop (to appease the DUP) was the UK's idea.

It follows that the backstop would have always been in the WA, it is just the opposition to it is due to the red lines of the Brexiteers. I think had the UK gone to the EU and said their aim was a EFTA style relationship with the EU, then the thought of the backstop would not have been as toxic as the future relationship would include ECJ jurisdiction and so having it included in the backstop would not have been as bad. But because they have their red lines, the terms of the backstop seems severe to them and thus they have their opposition to it.

So basically, there would have always been the backstop in the negotiations with the EU, it is the red lines of the UK that makes the backstop seem toxic to Brexiteers who wants all of their cake and want to eat it as well.

Here is a link to download the Mapping exercise on the NI border.

https://www.scribd.com/document/413958070/Brexit-Mapping-exercise-by-UK-government-on-Northern-Ireland

And just a quick tweet on our position on an extension,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1141685725538205698

So it seems like we are in a position where we are not opposed to more extensions, but we do have our hands tied a bit as it would be a collective decision of which we are only one vote.

20silkcut · 20-06-2019 02:13PM

Enzokk wrote: »

It follows that the backstop would have always been in the WA, it is just the opposition to it is due to the red lines of the Brexiteers. I think had the UK gone to the EU and said their aim was a EFTA style relationship with the EU, then the thought of the backstop would not have been as toxic as the future relationship would include ECJ jurisdiction and so having it included in the backstop would not have been as bad. But because they have their red lines, the terms of the backstop seems severe to them and thus they have their opposition to it.

So basically, there would have always been the backstop in the negotiations with the EU, it is the red lines of the UK that makes the backstop seem toxic to Brexiteers who wants all of their cake and want to eat it as well.

Here is a link to download the Mapping exercise on the NI border.

https://www.scribd.com/document/413958070/Brexit-Mapping-exercise-by-UK-government-on-Northern-Ireland

And just a quick tweet on our position on an extension,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1141685725538205698

So it seems like we are in a position where we are not opposed to more extensions, but we do have our hands tied a bit as it would be a collective decision of which we are only one vote.

For the EU to retain their credibility they will have to take that line.

54and56 · 20-06-2019 03:09PM

Water John wrote: »

Quite obvious now, with Hunt and Gove so close, Johnson will manouvere the next round to pick who he wishes to run against. I would say he wants Hunt as he would fear Gove. It would also be bonus Karma for him to knock Gove out.

There is something beautifully symmetrical about Gove and BoJo, the joint leaders of the Leave campaign, battling it out to be the new PM. No matter who wins we will be entering the final straight as the much longed for control of Brexit by a true Brexiteer, and who could be more Brexit than the leaders of the Leave campaign? (other than Farage), finally happens and all excuses about how poorly TM the remainer negotiated with the EU will be laid bare.

If your kids don't listen to your advice based on decades of experience and knowledge sometimes it's best to just sit back and let them fall off that fence or eat too many sweets and get sick so they learn the hard way.

We are entering the "I wish I'd listened to the advice" stage I'm afraid which is going to end in tears for a lot of people.

Professor Moriarty · 20-06-2019 03:11PM

54&56 wrote: »

There is something beautifully symmetrical about Gove and BoJo, the joint leaders of the Leave campaign, battling it out to be the new PM. No matter who wins we will be entering the final straight as the much longed for control of Brexit by a true Brexiteer, and who could be more Brexit than the leaders of the Leave campaign? (other than Farage), finally happens and all excuses about how poorly TM the remainer negotiated with the EU will be laid bare.

If your kids don't listen to your advice based on decades of experience and knowledge sometimes it's best to just sit back and let them fall off that fence or eat too many sweets and get sick so they learn the hard way.

We are entering the "I wish I'd listened to the advice" stage I'm afraid which is going to end in tears for a lot of people.

To continue your analogy, it's like watching someone else let their kid fall off the fence but their kid lands on your kid.

Water John · 20-06-2019 03:49PM

I do hope they let it go to a Tory membership vote as they need to take ownership of the mess.

beggars_bush · 20-06-2019 04:55PM

Water John wrote: »

I do hope they let it go to a Tory membership vote as they need to take ownership of the mess.

About one third of Tory voters are remainers, it is believed

trellheim · 20-06-2019 05:27PM

"none of the above"

Stop moaning ffs · 20-06-2019 05:39PM

Leo’s quoted in this thread saying there will be no extension granted (unless election or referendum)

https://twitter.com/colmomongain/status/1141700582908092416?s=21

https://twitter.com/colmomongain/status/1141700590361354240?s=21

Joe_ Public · 20-06-2019 05:58PM

They are absolutely dead right not to offer another extension for no good reason. There is no other option. They told the UK not to waste the time after granting the last extension but that pretty much is what they are doing, the conservatives tearing themselves apart while Labour dithers and sits by doing nothing. The remain side need to get Labour into gear and get some momentum going. I think they can still win it if they get their act together.

Stop moaning ffs · 20-06-2019 06:02PM

That’s seriously impressive from Leo.
Basically telling Boris Eff you. And the whole shambolic lot of them, ‘sort your sh!t out, agree or we’re done.’

I’d expect a massive ramp up in the ‘Ireland is the problem’ narrative in the uk media tomorrow. With Leo being the target.

Harry Palmr · 20-06-2019 06:06PM

*unt has prevailed - just! 77 to 75 for Gove.

Joe_ Public · 20-06-2019 06:08PM

Johnson camp nearly screwed that up, far too close for comfort.

Water John · 20-06-2019 06:08PM

Only 3 votes added to Johnson. Must have loaned 8/10 votes to Hunt.

Strazdas · 20-06-2019 06:10PM

Water John wrote: »

Only 3 votes added to Johnson. Must have loaned 8/10 votes to Hunt.

Definitely....it was close but he manipulated the result

Joe_ Public · 20-06-2019 06:10PM

Water John wrote: »

Only 3 votes added to Johnson. Must have loaned 8/10 votes to Hunt.

Thought they'd have lent 20 to make sure.

Water John · 20-06-2019 06:12PM

They'd nearly be stupid enough to do that, overcook it.

Love Beth Rigby.

Strazdas · 20-06-2019 06:19PM

Water John wrote: »

They'd nearly be stupid enough to do that, overcook it.

Love Beth Rigby.

Johnson seems to have had a good handle on the numbers and knew exactly what he was doing

bilston · 20-06-2019 06:41PM

Johnson seems to have served up a cold dish of revenge on Gove!

lawred2 · 20-06-2019 06:47PM

Are these Tories not a minority government?

Why does their next leader get to be an automatic PM?

Seth Brundle · 20-06-2019 06:48PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Leo’s quoted in this thread saying there will be no extension granted (unless election or referendum)

https://twitter.com/colmomongain/status/1141700582908092416?s=21

https://twitter.com/colmomongain/status/1141700590361354240?s=21

This is being reported in the Telegraph as "Ireland's prime minister warns of EU-27's 'enormous hostility' against Brexit extension"
It's the EU that are at fault obviously! :rolleyes:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/20/irelands-prime-minister-warns-eu-27-enormous-hostility-against/

Stop moaning ffs · 20-06-2019 07:03PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

This is being reported in the Telegraph as "Ireland's prime minister warns of EU-27's 'enormous hostility' against Brexit extension"
It's the EU that are at fault obviously! :rolleyes:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/20/irelands-prime-minister-warns-eu-27-enormous-hostility-against/

Well of course they would.

But it isnt even stealthily put. He’s telling them eat what’s in front of you or eff off. And in barely diplomatic language.

ancapailldorcha · 20-06-2019 07:05PM

That's disheartening from Varadkar to say the least.

I think he and Simon Coveney have done a splendid job in ensuring that the EU acts with Irish interests in mind. Unfortunately, I am somewhat out of touch with Irish politics but I'm thankful that he's among the EU27 agitating for patience and care for the negotiations with the UK. However, if this disheartening news is anything to go by it would seem that the EU has reached its limit. Any chain is only as strong as its weakest link. If some EU member states have run out of patience with Britain then I can't see the Irish government being able to do all that much to help the UK gain another extension.

I think the EU still wants Brexit to be cancelled. However, it has prepared for Brexit much more scrupulously and thoroughly than the UK. It's even shown better form in acting for UK citizens than their own government. Meanwhile the Conservatives continue to bicker amongst themselves about how loves Brexit most aided and abetted by Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party. The Greens and the Liberal Democrats are electorally irrelevant in Westminster while the SNP pursues its own separatist agenda.

There's not enough time for another general election even if the government were of a mind to call one. It'll be 22 July when Boris Johnson is crowned Tory leader. One can only hope he experiences some sort of Damascene moment while lounging in one of his Estates but that seems unlikely. I think the EU would grant an extension to facilitate a People's Vote. Maybe. But from Varadkar's tweet, this seems a stretch. My pool of optimism grows ever more shallow.

It was always going to be like this.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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