Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Laois_Man · 19-06-2019 04:50PM

Dithering Corbyn has been given further cause for dither with a letter written to him by Labour⁩ MPs from leave areas opposing the party strengthening its stance on a second referendum or remaining....

They're a gas bunch over there!

Professor Moriarty · 19-06-2019 04:54PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Dithering Corbyn has been given further cause for dither with a letter written to him by Labour⁩ MPs from leave areas opposing the party strengthening its stance on a second referendum or remaining....

They're a gas bunch over there!

Remarkably, 60% of seats won by Labour MPs voted Leave in 2016. No pressure...

Professor Moriarty · 19-06-2019 04:56PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

Gavin Williamson who has been the Johnson enforcer and has played a huge role in the amount of MPS that have backed him from various elements of the party is very close to the DUP. That story has him written all over it.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1141278499803672576

Also...

To be expected. Boris obviously going to backtrack with Raab out and the race over and despite what he may say he knows the Brexit that the likes of Steve Baker want would terrible for the UK.

Even before he's elected, Johnson having trouble keeping both sides happy. Theresa May giggling into her G&T.

Loafing Oaf · 19-06-2019 04:59PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Even before he's elected, Johnson having trouble keeping both sides happy. Theresa May giggling into her G&T.

But there's no-one left in the race who can credibly out-Brexit him. So he tack as soft as he wants now and the ERG types will just have to suck it up and vote for him.

Professor Moriarty · 19-06-2019 05:04PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But there's no-one left in the race who can credibly out-Brexit him. So he tack as soft as he wants now and the ERG types will just have to suck it up and vote for him.

He doesn't even need to tack at this stage. If he didn't open his mouth at all, he'd be elected. The Brexit division is here to stay and it's paralysing British politics. Pretty soon, it will start paralysing the economy too. Car crash in slow motion. But look, the ERG types will be fine and the lower classes will blame Johnny Foreigner.

A Shropshire Lad · 19-06-2019 05:40PM

Britain has a constitutional crisis they need to sort out before any of this Brexit will be finalised

Enzokk · 19-06-2019 05:43PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Dithering Corbyn has been given further cause for dither with a letter written to him by Labour⁩ MPs from leave areas opposing the party strengthening its stance on a second referendum or remaining....

They're a gas bunch over there!

That letter just takes all the information from those three elections where Labour just about held on and runs with what they want to see. Despite warnings that Labour would lose votes and vote share if they backed Brexit and this being replicated in the results, they still think leaving is the way to go.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1140939099538436096

So YouGov has Labour working class leave voters at 15%. They are looking to placate 28% leave voters of their vote and they are losing from the 66% of their remain vote. Great idea, talk about shooting yourself in the foot while the opposition is busy self destructing.

Enzokk · 19-06-2019 05:52PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Remarkably, 60% of seats won by Labour MPs voted Leave in 2016. No pressure...

They only get around 40% of the vote in any case, right? So all you need to do is win the remain vote and you are there to win the seat. This is not hard for Labour, but they are making it hard. The Brexit Party and the Tories will fight for the leave vote and Labour could have gotten the rest.

Professor Moriarty · 19-06-2019 05:57PM

Enzokk wrote: »

They only get around 40% of the vote in any case, right? So all you need to do is win the remain vote and you are there to win the seat. This is not hard for Labour, but they are making it hard. The Brexit Party and the Tories will fight for the leave vote and Labour could have gotten the rest.

Yeah, the remain vote is hopelessly (so far) split. If Corbyn backed remain, the Lib Dems would quickly fade away again. It would be interesting to do an analysis of the majorities of Leave Labour MPs. As would be an analysis of pro EU Tory MPs majorities.

Roger_007 · 19-06-2019 06:06PM

Stewart out!

An Ciarraioch · 19-06-2019 06:07PM

http://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1141391624179785734

Professor Moriarty · 19-06-2019 06:12PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1141391624179785734

Is it time to mention lunatics and asylums? These people make May seem like Arthur Scargill.

robinph · 19-06-2019 06:12PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1141391624179785734

I thought yesterday's threshold was 33, what was it for today?

Not getting why it didn't go up enough to eliminate Javid as well today.

Enzokk · 19-06-2019 06:13PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah, the remain vote is hopelessly (so far) split. If Corbyn backed remain, the Lib Dems would quickly fade away again. It would be interesting to do an analysis of the majorities of Leave Labour MPs. As would be an analysis of pro EU Tory MPs majorities.

It would and I think it has been tried but I doubt it would make a difference to these MPs as they have dug in to their position now. I wonder what happened to the Corbyn promise of Labour Members helping craft the Labour policy. That policy would be to remain which would be the best for the country as almost every economists predicts. Those Labour MPs that wrote the letter are doing exactly what I am criticizing Mark Francois is doing, they are putting themselves ahead of the needs of their voters. The bad thing is they are doing it at the expense and against the will of their members as well.

Rjd2 · 19-06-2019 06:14PM

robinph wrote: »

I thought yesterday's threshold was 33, what was it for today?

Not getting why it didn't go up enough to eliminate Javid as well today.

Simply lowest was out today.

The TV debate did for Stewart last night, did not land the blows needed on Boris. I'l have to think about who is less awful at the moment excluding Boris and to a lesser extent Gove.

I suppose Javid might be a little better than Hunt and the gruesome twosome.

Professor Moriarty · 19-06-2019 06:19PM

Enzokk wrote: »

It would and I think it has been tried but I doubt it would make a difference to these MPs as they have dug in to their position now. I wonder what happened to the Corbyn promise of Labour Members helping craft the Labour policy. That policy would be to remain which would be the best for the country as almost every economists predicts. Those Labour MPs that wrote the letter are doing exactly what I am criticizing Mark Francois is doing, they are putting themselves ahead of the needs of their voters. The bad thing is they are doing it at the expense and against the will of their members as well.

TBF to Francois, loathsome as he is, he is articulating the will of a majority of the Tory party membership. Their voters, for the most part, are staunch Brexiteers. Or they have defected to Farage. The Labour MPs who wrote the letter are placing ideology and (almost certainly) constituency above party. You could argue that they might be right from their perspective.

Joe_ Public · 19-06-2019 06:20PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah, the remain vote is hopelessly (so far) split. If Corbyn backed remain, the Lib Dems would quickly fade away again. It would be interesting to do an analysis of the majorities of Leave Labour MPs. As would be an analysis of pro EU Tory MPs majorities.

I think you also have to factor in those pro-leave MPs in remain voting constituencies, there are a lot of them. Likes of Steve Baker (6.5K majority) and Ian Duncan Smith (2.4k maj) who will be looking over their shoulder. Theresa Villiers has a 353 majority in a 58% remain constituency (in 2016 anyway). Kate Hoey, somehow, has a 20k majority but her constituency, notably, had the highest remain vote in the UK.

Rjd2 · 19-06-2019 06:21PM

4 left all grim choices. I think lesser of all evils and its not saying much is Saj as he will be reliant on Stewart voters so hopefully that might stop him trying to out farage Farage.

Probably as pointless as debate though as asking who will win the leinster gaa final on sunday or the scotish premier league next season.

Professor Moriarty · 19-06-2019 06:22PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think you also have to factor in those pro-leave MPs in remain voting constituencies, there are a lot of them. Likes of Steve Baker (6.5K majority) and Ian Duncan Smith (2.4k maj) who will be looking over their shoulder. Theresa Villiers has a 353 majority in a 58% remain constituency (in 2016 anyway). Kate Hoey, somehow, has a 20k majority but her constituency, notably, had the highest remain vote in the UK.

That's brightened my day! Except the Hoey bit.

Professor Moriarty · 19-06-2019 06:23PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

4 left all grim choices. I think lesser of all evils and its not saying much is Saj as he will be reliant on Stewart voters so hopefully that might stop him trying to out farage Farage.

Probably as pointless as debate though as asking who will win the leinster gaa final on sunday or the scotish premier league next season.

At least we'll be 500 million richer.

First Up · 19-06-2019 06:28PM

Professor Moriarty wrote:

At least we'll be 500 million richer.

You can set that against the 6% drop in GDP that a hard Brexit will deliver.

Joe_ Public · 19-06-2019 06:29PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's brightened my day! Except the Hoey bit.

The upside is the honourable lady is almost certain to be offered a hobsons choice by her party before the next GE: resign or face deselection.

listermint · 19-06-2019 06:41PM

Led by donkeys should now run a massive campaign promoting Boris the man who will now deliver the deepest recession in UK history.

Just so he's really really tied to it.

steddyeddy · 19-06-2019 06:43PM

I actually hope Boris gets it just so he can actually take some responsibility for the monster he's created. May it give him many sleepless nights.

Dante7 · 19-06-2019 07:00PM

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1141395599910166530?s=19

19-06-2019 07:03PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

I actually hope Boris gets it just so he can actually take some responsibility for the monster he's created. May it give him many sleepless nights.

Gonna make him and his ilk a lot of money, so he won't care.

Another point is, doesn't the queen have to ask him if he thinks he can command the majority of the house? Because I honestly don't think Bojo can. There's a lot of Tories that despise him.

A Shropshire Lad · 19-06-2019 07:08PM

I can only imagine the tactical voting that goes on there. Boris probably had people vote for others to get Stewart out

Channel 4 reported yesterday that some members were sneaking in mobile phones to take a photo of the ballot to prove that they had voted the way they promised

Joe_ Public · 19-06-2019 07:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Gonna make him and his ilk a lot of money, so he won't care.

Another point is, doesn't the queen have to ask him if he thinks he can command the majority of the house? Because I honestly don't think Bojo can. There's a lot of Tories that despise him.

Not sure how it will play out, but i suspect that scenario might quite suit him in many ways. An early GE, before they get to the position of failing to deliver brexit, would be sweet music to his ears. Not sure how far fetched that is, though, anything possible perhaps...

Capt'n Midnight · 19-06-2019 07:12PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think that observation has been made many times, and is accurate. The strategy, such as there was one, was to divide and conquer via bilateral diplomacy. That they thought they could do this is related to them fundamentally underestimating the competence and health of the EU. Which would go hand in hand with being Brexity to begin with.

It also would have required, imo, much greater capability within the British Civil Service. The indications are that they are not on the EU’s level in terms of negotiation and everything that surrounds it. Boris Johnson being at the helm won’t change that.

The problem is at the top.

Given achievable goals the UK civil service could have delivered. Getting the EU to allow all of the UK to remain in the backstop for the transition should have been seen as heroic rather than as traitors. Instead they got were moving goalposts.

The Tánaiste praised British civil servants as arguably the best in the world

Dave Penman .. said ..
“We have situation where the civil service are having to negotiate effectively with both hands tied behind their back; it is unclear what they are being asked to deliver; the government can’t agree with itself,”

Joe_ Public · 19-06-2019 07:22PM

Remember at their first (informal) gathering after the brexit vote, Theresa May blithely suggesting to Juncker and the other gathered Europeans that they were keen to get started on trade negotiations even before they'd discussed the parameters of the divorce settlement. I recall one of the EU delegation actually thinking she was making a joke, british sense of humour! You can talk about strategy, but May herself set the hostile tone of the negotiations with her red lines and then immediately signposted their basic ignorance and incompetence at the above meeting.

As for the civil service, they had a very well respected emissary in Brussels who was constantly warning the government they were heading down a path of great pain and its reaction was to eventually have him replaced with a guy whose job was simply to tell them what they wanted to hear. Just scarcely believable incompetence from start to finish and still ongoing.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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