FIT 2021

rolion · 09-06-2019 9:23am #1

We should have FIT in 2020 more likely in 2021

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/green-light-to-sell-solar-electricity-back-to-grid-dvwf0jbt7

phester28 · 09-06-2019 9:56am

So €400 per year was the old scheme under a 19c per KWh pay back. Any new payback is most likely be a fraction of this (its the current full fossil fuel rate) and so it likely to yield a very reduced sum. From what I was following up to now the FIT that government were discussing and what I talked to politicians during the elections was only on a commercial basis and Dan Boyle mentioned that you may have to join into a community supply in-order to be able to give enough supply be to be able to avail of the FIT.

If it happens every little will obviously help in bringing down the payback period from what is currently the major disincentive for people to go solar

I cant read the article in full as you need to be a subscriber.

quentingargan · 09-06-2019 10:07am

There are utility companies already who are willing to buy back power from small industries and would be willing to do likewise with householders, but ESB networks doesn't make the meter data available. Most likely you will have to get a smart meter and at current rates the market price is about 7c.

This still makes sense - battery storage costs at least 10c per kwhr, unless your battery is subsidised by the grant.

unkel · 10-06-2019 12:03am

I don't want any FIT if I have to pay €300 for an import/export or a smart meter. I'll wait until they install one for free which will happen eventually.

Anyone any guess what rate the FIT will be? I'll start the ball rolling with 6c/kWh

quentingargan · 10-06-2019 10:01am

unkel wrote: »

I don't want any FIT if I have to pay €300 for an import/export or a smart meter. I'll wait until they install one for free which will happen eventually.

Anyone any guess what rate the FIT will be? I'll start the ball rolling with 6c/kWh

I'm guessing the SEM-o price minus 15%. Already, companies like Arden Energy are offering that sort of price to small industry (where ESB is willing to provide the meter data)

rolion · 10-06-2019 10:14am

Sorry,i had to wait a day until physical newspaper is been "sold out".

Here is a link from journal_ie, nice and heated comments from various people.

And,the attachment from the physical newspaper.
Talk,talk,plans and again empty words same as a PV output in a very ****ty cloudy rainy day.

Good luck.

unkel · 11-06-2019 10:42pm

Quentin is now famous

A lot of people will be disappointed should this FIT come in if they believe the article's premise that it will make them €400 per year. Even with half of your production from your large 4kwp system going to FIT, that will likely only make you around €100

Those shiny new houses with their 4 panel systems will make their owner maybe twenty quid

quentingargan · 11-06-2019 11:36pm

unkel wrote: »

Quentin is now famous

A lot of people will be disappointed should this FIT come in if they believe the article's premise that it will make them €400 per year. Even with half of your production from your large 4kwp system going to FIT, that will likely only make you around €100

Those shiny new houses with their 4 panel systems will make their owner maybe twenty quid

Yes - it is a bit out of context. At that rate (19c per earlier fit), a 4kw system exporting half its power would give you €400. But my guess is we will get the sem-o price or about 7c. Maybe it would be subsidised, but not to 19c.

rolion · 13-06-2019 10:46pm

unkel wrote: »

Quentin is now famous

Well,is not WHAT you know but WHO you know ... AND what you know from what they know ...

KCross · 17-06-2019 4:37pm

From the climate action announcement today....

Change the electricity market rules in early 2020 in order to enable micro-generated electricity to be sold to the grid. This should include provision for a feed-in tariff for micro- generation to be set at least at the wholesale price point

Health warning: Thats just an intention/suggestion. Its not law, so dont go out and buy SolarPV based on that but this plan appears to have cross party support so we can only hope!

For those more knowledgeable... is the "wholesale price point" close to zero during the day when Solar would be generating excess? That would be a fly in the ointment I guess!?

unkel · 17-06-2019 4:42pm

KCross wrote: »

For those more knowledgeable... is the "wholesale price point" close to zero during the day when Solar would be generating excess?

Not with just a few thousand PV installs in the country

Eventually all or most of the excess renewable production (like PV or wind) will be stored in a battery of some sort (be it pumped water, grid attached EVs, power walls, etc.) or used to produce hydrogen

If we get a fit, I'd expect a rate of 5-6c. Anything over that would be a big bonus. Still makes sense to self consume. But it will make the payback period of batteries much, much longer.

KCross · 17-06-2019 4:46pm

unkel wrote: »

Not with just a few thousand PV installs in the country

Eventually all or most of the excess renewable production (like PV or wind) will be stored in a battery of some sort (be it pumped water, grid attached EVs, power walls, etc. or used to produce hydrogen)

I thought I read somewhere on here that the wholesale price goes negative at some times. Its an open realtime market, not related to the number of SolarPV installs.

So, I'm just wondering will the price be quite low at midday when Solar would have most of its excess?... bear in mind it will all be driven by Smart meters which have 15min interval data so they can vary the price paid at that level if they wish.

KCross · 17-06-2019 4:49pm

unkel wrote: »

If we get a fit, .. it will make the payback period of batteries much, much longer.

This is the big one. I think you would be mad to pay for batteries, now that they are making waves towards introducing a FiT.

We need more detail but it doesnt make sense to me to invest in batteries that will take 15yrs+ to break even when FiT is a distinct possibility. At least hold off until their timeframe of "early 2020" to see that detail.

gally74 · 17-06-2019 7:09pm

KCross wrote: »

This is the big one. I think you would be mad to pay for batteries, now that they are making waves towards introducing a FiT.

We need more detail but it doesnt make sense to me to invest in batteries that will take 15yrs+ to break even when FiT is a distinct possibility. At least hold off until their timeframe of "early 2020" to see that detail.

Yes. But the grant could be dropped or adjusted for the fit....

As someone said here early adopters could benefit.

unkel · 17-06-2019 8:48pm

KCross wrote: »

I thought I read somewhere on here that the wholesale price goes negative at some times. Its an open realtime market

I think it does with wind sometimes but that's in the middle of the night when the country needs very little electricity (and there's a lot of wind)

I can't see the same happening for solar PV anytime soon until we have many large commercial PV farms and many roofs of houses and commercial buildings are plastered with panels. That's years away

And my point is that by that time there will be commercially viable ways to use excess production.

phester28 · 17-06-2019 9:15pm

the dc interconnect with france once operational has the capability to import or export with short notice 1 min time interval. This should hopefully help against negative prices as we can export wind when it blows. (Not sure how the carbon credits system works but hopefully this will count towards carbon credits.

Alkers · 17-06-2019 10:19pm

Has anyone done the maths to see at what point FIT makes battery storage to be no longer viable with solar PV?

unkel · 17-06-2019 10:24pm

Depends on what battery storage you are getting. If you are already planning to have an SEAI installer come to install a large PV array, you can do so with the grants, which means the taxpayer is paying €2,400 just for your battery install. €1,000 for the battery itself and to go from 2kwp to 4kwp you must install a battery to get the additional 2 * €700 for the panels. Making the battery system almost free, so very much viable.

KCross · 17-06-2019 10:29pm

unkel wrote: »

I think it does with wind sometimes but that's in the middle of the night when the country needs very little electricity (and there's a lot of wind)

I seem to remember it happening during the day. Could be wrong.

unkel wrote: »

I can't see the same happening for solar PV anytime soon until we have many large commercial PV farms and many roofs of houses and commercial buildings are plastered with panels. That's years away

I dont understand why the number of Solar systems matters. I dont think its relevant to the market price. Its an open market with all generators bidding.

Im not an expert but I thought the way it was explained on here is that if its, say, forecasted to have high wind tomorrow that affects the market price for that day because the plants would rather sell cheap electricity and keep the plant spinning than to shut it down and have to start it later.... there is no connection between the number of Solar systems and its not confined to night.... its just whatever the market can bear based on the forecast for the day ahead.

Maybe I'm confusing the market/spot price with this wholesale price... I'm not sure but I dont think the number of Solar systems has any bearing here.

KCross · 17-06-2019 10:34pm

unkel wrote: »

Depends on what battery storage you are getting. If you are already planning to have an SEAI installer come to install a large PV array, you can do so with the grants, which means the taxpayer is paying €2,400 just for your battery install. €1,000 for the battery itself and to go from 2kwp to 4kwp you must install a battery to get the additional 2 * €700 for the panels. Making the battery system almost free, so very much viable.

I cant see how you come to that conclusion?
€1k doesnt come close to covering the cost of the batteries, install of same and extra cost of hybrid inverter.

I thought you had come to the same conclusion that battery systems dont add up which is why you havent invested yourself. Have you changed your mind that they are now viable?! I'm finding it hard to keep up with your views unkel!

unkel · 17-06-2019 10:43pm

KCross wrote: »

Its an open market with all generators bidding.

That's my understanding too.

KCross wrote: »

I dont understand why the number of Solar systems matters. I dont think its relevant to the market price.

If there is a lot of wind (with Ireland's wind farms already able to produce up to 75% of our electricity use), supply can be bigger than demand, so prices are low (or even zero or negative as you say)

Solar there is almost zero of in Ireland. So it has no impact on total supply how sunny it will be tomorrow. Once we have so much solar that we could produce 75% of Ireland's needs with just solar, then yes, a similar situation as with wind will occur with very low (or even zero or negative prices)

So for the next few years at the very least, there will not be any situation of high supply of wind and / or solar that would impact on the wholesale / spot price of electricity (unless it is very windy on a very sunny day, but this almost never occurs)

Hope I explained myself a bit better?

KCross · 17-06-2019 10:53pm

unkel wrote: »

So for the next few years at the very least, there will not be any situation of high supply of wind and / or solar that would impact on the wholesale / spot price of electricity (unless it is very windy on a very sunny day, but this almost never occurs)

I understand your point but I wonder is the pricing a bit more complex than that.

Is there any publicly available information on the historical market price for Ireland. I'd like to see when the negative prices happen and does it basically follow the days of high wind or is it more complex than that.

I think the cost of gas and moneypoint affect it too.

Actually, now that I think of it.... there is a market price in the smartgrid website but its showing zero data.

antoinolachtnai · 17-06-2019 10:56pm

KCross wrote: »

I thought I read somewhere on here that the wholesale price goes negative at some times. Its an open realtime market, not related to the number of SolarPV installs.

So, I'm just wondering will the price be quite low at midday when Solar would have most of its excess?... bear in mind it will all be driven by Smart meters which have 15min interval data so they can vary the price paid at that level if they wish.

The price won’t be zero but it is more likely to be in the region of 4c/kWh than 7 or 8 c per kWh.

There is in fact PV on the grid already. There is some in NI and there are imports over the interconnectors.

The balancing price falling under zero is something that happens when generation is higher than expected because the wind blows harder than expected or in the future because there is more sun than expected in a particular half hour period.

The day-ahead price at which most electricity is traded is much less likely to go negative or zero in the middle of the day. Is possible over the longer term I suppose.

Historical prices are on sem-o.com and semopx.com

I can get you a csv with day ahead and balancing prices if you need them.

unkel · 17-06-2019 10:56pm

KCross wrote: »

I understand your point but I wonder is the pricing a bit more complex than that.

I don't claim to be an expert, I don't know. But it if you assume it's an open market, with all suppliers bidding, then it's reasonable to assume that the price is set as a function of supply and demand.

KCross · 17-06-2019 11:05pm

gally74 wrote: »

Yes. But the grant could be dropped or adjusted for the fit....

As someone said here early adopters could benefit.

I'm sure they would adjust that grant alright but I'm not sure how early adoptors would benefit or have a better payback as a result?

I'd rather have kept the money in my pocket or better still put up more panels with that battery money and get paid for my excess with a FiT than spend 15yrs+ trying to break even with the battery that will be degraded in that time and the possibility of a more expensive hybrid inverter failure also.

What is the benefit to early adoptors of battery systems if a FiT comes in?

KCross · 17-06-2019 11:20pm

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

The price won’t be zero but it is more likely to be in the region of 4c/kWh than 7 or 8 c per kWh.

4c seems more likely than 7c alright. Would still be alright for zero investment in a battery. Basically the grid is your battery!

antoinolachtnai wrote: »

Historical prices are on sem-o.com and semopx.com

I can get you a csv with day ahead and balancing prices if you need them.

Can I search/download myself or do you have an account or something?
If I cant do it myself do please send on some raw data.... the more the days data the merrier... i'll excel it to within an inch of its life! Thanks.

Alkers · 17-06-2019 11:32pm

KCross wrote: »

I cant see how you come to that conclusion?
€1k doesnt come close to covering the cost of the batteries, install of same and extra cost of hybrid inverter.

I thought you had come to the same conclusion that battery systems dont add up which is why you havent invested yourself. Have you changed your mind that they are now viable?! I'm finding it hard to keep up with your views unkel!

As you need to put in a battery to obtain the extra 1400 for the panels above 2kw. Grant is 700e per kw but capped at 1400e unless you get a battery. So a 2kw system earns a 1400e grant but a 3kw + battery earns a 3100e grant so in that case the battery is effective zero net cost to the homeowner

KCross · 17-06-2019 11:46pm

Alkers wrote: »

As you need to put in a battery to obtain the extra 1400 for the panels above 2kw. Grant is 700e per kw but capped at 1400e unless you get a battery. So a 2kw system earns a 1400e grant but a 3kw + battery earns a 3100e grant so in that case the battery is effective zero net cost to the homeowner

The grant for the battery is €1k only. Battery systems cost more than €1k..., add up labour, hybrid inverter, battery and profit for the installer.

I know the battery unlocks additional grants for more panels but you cant really allocate all the grants against the battery and say the battery is then free. If you do you then have to say you have much more expensive panels as they have no grant!

I still dont see how early adoptors of battery systems are going to have a better payback if FiT comes in.

Alkers · 17-06-2019 11:49pm

KCross wrote: »

The grant for the battery is €1k only. Battery systems cost more than €1k..., add up labour, hybrid inverter, battery and profit for the installer.

I know the battery unlocks additional grants for more panels but you cant really allocate all the grants against the battery and say the battery is then free. If you do you then have to say you have much more expensive panels as they have no grant!

I still dont see how early adoptors of battery systems are going to have a better payback if FiT comes in.

Say for 4k net you could either get 3kw array or 3kw array and 2.6kwh battery system, in that comparison you could consider the battery free.

I agree FIT reduces the necessity of batteries but it's hard to say by how much until we know the rates

KCross · 17-06-2019 11:54pm

Alkers wrote: »

Say for 4k net you could either get 3kw array or 3kw array and 2.6kwh battery system, in that comparison you could consider the battery free.

The quotes I got were nothing like that though. Have you got quotes where the figures/choices worked out like that? I doubt it somehow.

Once you add in batteries the cost goes up dramatically in my experience.

unkel · 18-06-2019 12:31am

KCross wrote: »

I know the battery unlocks additional grants for more panels but you cant really allocate all the grants against the battery and say the battery is then free.

Indeed. That's why I carefully said that if you planned in getting a SEAI installer to install a large PV system anyway, the battery is then more or less free.

It makes little sense to go for a grant install and get 4kwp installed without a battery. It will be overpriced and only give you €1,400 in grants, so it will cost you almost as much as going for a same size system with a battery and get €3,800 in grants

KCross · 18-06-2019 10:42am

unkel wrote: »

Indeed. That's why I carefully said that if you planned in getting a SEAI installer to install a large PV system anyway, the battery is then more or less free.

What you are saying is that if someone has decided to get a large PV array and has done no math on the ROI then the battery is free! :P

Strange justification for saying that batteries are viable!

unkel wrote: »

It makes little sense to go for a grant install and get 4kwp installed without a battery. It will be overpriced and only give you €1,400 in grants, so it will cost you almost as much as going for a same size system with a battery and get €3,800 in grants

The extra cost of the labour, hybrid inverter and battery will eat up alot more than the €1k you get for the battery grant. It will eat into the majority of the unlocked grant for the panels.

So, you can say you have a free battery but then you have expensive panels. I just think its misleading to say the battery is free or viable on that basis.

Some figures from my quotes....
€350 extra labour for the battery, about €800 extra for inverter and the battery about €1300. That's €2450 for an entry level battery system.

The grant is €1k for the battery and an extra €1400 for the additional 2kWp of panels... so, yea, you have a free battery on that basis but you paid full whack for that extra 2kWp if thats how you want to allocate the grant money.

There is no free lunch here!

Alkers · 18-06-2019 5:46pm

KCross wrote: »

The quotes I got were nothing like that though. Have you got quotes where the figures/choices worked out like that? I doubt it somehow.

Once you add in batteries the cost goes up dramatically in my experience.

From actual quotes I received:

2.275kW array no battery, net cost €3,700.
2.6kW array & 2.8kWh battery, net cost €4,550.

So €850 for the slightly larger array and the battery included. Looks a no-brainer at first glance but I work out approx 5.5 years for the battery to pay for itself:
Cost of battery = €850, that would pay for 5,000 units at 17c day rate.
5,000 units is about 2,000 cycles of the battery (allowing for 2.5kWh usable capacity).
Allowing one full cycle per day, that would take just under 5.5 years to recoup the €850. I'm not sure how realistic achieving on average one full battery cycle each day is for my situation?

unkel · 18-06-2019 5:55pm

KCross wrote: »

Some figures from my quotes....
€350 extra labour for the battery, about €800 extra for inverter and the battery about €1300. That's €2450 for an entry level battery system.

The grant is €1k for the battery and an extra €1400 for the additional 2kWp of panels... so, yea, you have a free battery

That additional labour is very rich and they added a nice wedge for themselves on that battery

I already had some solar PV when the grant system came in, so I can't make any of these grants work for me. I've tried

But I can honestly say, if I had the space on my roof and if didn't already have solar thermal, then I would probably have gone with the SEAI grant system with a 6kwp array, hybrid inverter, 5kWh battery, Eddi diverter and Zappi car charger. I would have negotiated the last €100 out of a deal. With people in the house during the day most days, that system would have paid off for me at some stage, particularly with a modest FIT. And would have enormous savings to the environment of course.

KCross · 18-06-2019 6:51pm

unkel wrote: »

That additional labour is very rich and they added a nice wedge for themselves on that battery

All the quotes are the same (overpriced) but they have to make money too I suppose.

Vans, insurance, diesel, cover the cost of the time to do call outs for quotes that dont convert to sales etc.

Direct labor will always be cheaper if you know what you are buying and getting the right people... so the rich prices, as you put it, are basically paying for the all-in-one dedicated service I suppose.

unkel · 18-06-2019 10:31pm

Well the one quote I actually got for a battery install under the SEAI grant, was very fair. He charged a full day's labour for an electrician, which was OTT, I guess he was covering eventualities there. But the prices of parts where very reasonable, just a bit over wholesale prices.

And yes, of course companies need to make a profit to survive. It's in fact their duty to the shareholders / owners to actually maximise that profit

n97 mini · 18-06-2019 10:36pm

unkel wrote: »

But I can honestly say, if I had the space on my roof and if didn't already have solar thermal, then I would probably have gone with the SEAI grant system with a 6kwp array, hybrid inverter, 5kWh battery, Eddi diverter and Zappi car charger. I would have negotiated the last €100 out of a deal. With people in the house during the day most days, that system would have paid off for me at some stage, particularly with a modest FIT. And would have enormous savings to the environment of course.

It would be interesting to see some quotes for that.

A friend got a quote for a large-ish setup, including battery, and from pricing the components up (using an Irish website), almost half of the cost was labour, which, off the top of my head it was around €4000.

I know there are some companies out there that are competitive, but the seem to be plenty that are milking the grants.

phester28 · 18-06-2019 10:42pm

anyone care to share a basic 2.1kw quote price. I've only got one back from ringing around all the seai cork approved. 3.8K pre grant.

Perhaps this should be moved to the quotes

unkel · 18-06-2019 11:08pm

n97 mini wrote: »

A friend got a quote for a large-ish setup, including battery, and from pricing the components up (using an Irish website), almost half of the cost was labour, which, off the top of my head it was around €4000.

But you do get almost that €4k back in subsidy. So doesn't sound too bad to me.

There is a regular poster in the quotes thread who got a reasonable price for a 6kwp system including battery and all the goodies. I can't remember the exact details. Browse the thread for it.

antoinolachtnai · 18-06-2019 11:38pm

Here by popular demand, a file containing day-ahead and imbalance prices since the beginning of iSEM operations in October. (It is a csv file, but with a .txt ending, because csv files are seemingly not liked by the boards upload manager.)

Please note that some imbalance prices may yet be revised.

The day-ahead market is in hourly intervals; the imbalance pricing is in half-hourly intervals.

This is not the full cost of electricity. It excludes distribution, transmission, loss factors and capacity charges, amongst other things. It is just the energy portion.

unkel · 18-06-2019 11:52pm

Thanks for that. Could you please describe in a bit more detail what those day ahead and imbalance prices are? And how would I interpret this bit of data from near the top of your file? Presumably these prices are per MWh?

valueDatetime PTDA PIMB
01/10/2018 00:00 67.21 36.75
01/10/2018 00:30 60.5 33.68
01/10/2018 01:00 60.5 -137.57

-137.57 Minus 14c/kWh???

antoinolachtnai · 18-06-2019 11:59pm

Yup, a negative imbalance price.

This probably happened because there was excess wind 'spilling' onto the grid, which had not been pre-sold in the day-ahead market.

But the intuitive principle you might have in your mind, that if you are generating and feeding to the grid, that it automatically results in a payment, is not necessarily correct. It might well cost you money.

The day-ahead market is where most electricity is bought and sold. It is determined by an auction, the day before the power is delivered.

(There is also an intra-day market that happens between day-ahead and balancing but the volumes are small, so don't worry too much about that.)

The balancing market is a sort of market of last resort. It is priced 'in the moment', and is actually the average of the prices paid to generators in the 6 5-minute intervals that make up the half-hour. If a generator puts electricity onto the grid that has not been pre-sold, or if a supplier/customer takes electricity that hasn't been pre-purchased, this is the price they pay. (Equally, if you pre-sold electricity, but then fail to deliver it, you will pay this price to make the market 'whole'.)

The setting of imbalance prices is a complex and controversial issue in the industry. The controversial part has been very high prices, rather than negative prices.

thos · 30-07-2019 4:34pm

Brian Denvir of the SEAI interviewed here on Selfbuild Podcast, talking about the export rate offered to be offered to homeowners by 2021:

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/ep-4-getting-paid-for-exported-electricity/id1452868134?i=1000445585062
https://soundcloud.com/selfbuild-ireland/ep-4-getting-paid-for-exported-electricity

(Spolier - Fairly general stuff, doesn't give anything specific away).

FIT 2021

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