FIT 2021

There are utility companies already who are willing to buy back power from small industries and would be willing to do likewise with householders, but ESB networks doesn't make the meter data available. Most likely you will have to get a smart meter and at current rates the market price is about 7c.

This still makes sense - battery storage costs at least 10c per kwhr, unless your battery is subsidised by the grant.

unkel wrote: »

I don't want any FIT if I have to pay €300 for an import/export or a smart meter. I'll wait until they install one for free which will happen eventually.

Anyone any guess what rate the FIT will be? I'll start the ball rolling with 6c/kWh

I'm guessing the SEM-o price minus 15%. Already, companies like Arden Energy are offering that sort of price to small industry (where ESB is willing to provide the meter data)

Quentin is now famous

A lot of people will be disappointed should this FIT come in if they believe the article's premise that it will make them €400 per year. Even with half of your production from your large 4kwp system going to FIT, that will likely only make you around €100

Those shiny new houses with their 4 panel systems will make their owner maybe twenty quid

KCross wrote: »

For those more knowledgeable... is the "wholesale price point" close to zero during the day when Solar would be generating excess?

Not with just a few thousand PV installs in the country

Eventually all or most of the excess renewable production (like PV or wind) will be stored in a battery of some sort (be it pumped water, grid attached EVs, power walls, etc.) or used to produce hydrogen

If we get a fit, I'd expect a rate of 5-6c. Anything over that would be a big bonus. Still makes sense to self consume. But it will make the payback period of batteries much, much longer.

unkel wrote: »

If we get a fit, .. it will make the payback period of batteries much, much longer.

This is the big one. I think you would be mad to pay for batteries, now that they are making waves towards introducing a FiT.

We need more detail but it doesnt make sense to me to invest in batteries that will take 15yrs+ to break even when FiT is a distinct possibility. At least hold off until their timeframe of "early 2020" to see that detail.

KCross wrote: »

I thought I read somewhere on here that the wholesale price goes negative at some times. Its an open realtime market

I think it does with wind sometimes but that's in the middle of the night when the country needs very little electricity (and there's a lot of wind)

I can't see the same happening for solar PV anytime soon until we have many large commercial PV farms and many roofs of houses and commercial buildings are plastered with panels. That's years away

And my point is that by that time there will be commercially viable ways to use excess production.

Has anyone done the maths to see at what point FIT makes battery storage to be no longer viable with solar PV?

unkel wrote: »

I think it does with wind sometimes but that's in the middle of the night when the country needs very little electricity (and there's a lot of wind)

I seem to remember it happening during the day. Could be wrong.

unkel wrote: »

I can't see the same happening for solar PV anytime soon until we have many large commercial PV farms and many roofs of houses and commercial buildings are plastered with panels. That's years away

I dont understand why the number of Solar systems matters. I dont think its relevant to the market price. Its an open market with all generators bidding.

Im not an expert but I thought the way it was explained on here is that if its, say, forecasted to have high wind tomorrow that affects the market price for that day because the plants would rather sell cheap electricity and keep the plant spinning than to shut it down and have to start it later.... there is no connection between the number of Solar systems and its not confined to night.... its just whatever the market can bear based on the forecast for the day ahead.

Maybe I'm confusing the market/spot price with this wholesale price... I'm not sure but I dont think the number of Solar systems has any bearing here.

KCross wrote: »

Its an open market with all generators bidding.

That's my understanding too.

KCross wrote: »

I dont understand why the number of Solar systems matters. I dont think its relevant to the market price.

If there is a lot of wind (with Ireland's wind farms already able to produce up to 75% of our electricity use), supply can be bigger than demand, so prices are low (or even zero or negative as you say)

Solar there is almost zero of in Ireland. So it has no impact on total supply how sunny it will be tomorrow. Once we have so much solar that we could produce 75% of Ireland's needs with just solar, then yes, a similar situation as with wind will occur with very low (or even zero or negative prices)

So for the next few years at the very least, there will not be any situation of high supply of wind and / or solar that would impact on the wholesale / spot price of electricity (unless it is very windy on a very sunny day, but this almost never occurs)

Hope I explained myself a bit better?

KCross wrote: »

I thought I read somewhere on here that the wholesale price goes negative at some times. Its an open realtime market, not related to the number of SolarPV installs.

So, I'm just wondering will the price be quite low at midday when Solar would have most of its excess?... bear in mind it will all be driven by Smart meters which have 15min interval data so they can vary the price paid at that level if they wish.

The price won’t be zero but it is more likely to be in the region of 4c/kWh than 7 or 8 c per kWh.

There is in fact PV on the grid already. There is some in NI and there are imports over the interconnectors.

The balancing price falling under zero is something that happens when generation is higher than expected because the wind blows harder than expected or in the future because there is more sun than expected in a particular half hour period.

The day-ahead price at which most electricity is traded is much less likely to go negative or zero in the middle of the day. Is possible over the longer term I suppose.

Historical prices are on sem-o.com and semopx.com

I can get you a csv with day ahead and balancing prices if you need them.

gally74 wrote: »

Yes. But the grant could be dropped or adjusted for the fit....

As someone said here early adopters could benefit.

I'm sure they would adjust that grant alright but I'm not sure how early adoptors would benefit or have a better payback as a result?

I'd rather have kept the money in my pocket or better still put up more panels with that battery money and get paid for my excess with a FiT than spend 15yrs+ trying to break even with the battery that will be degraded in that time and the possibility of a more expensive hybrid inverter failure also.


What is the benefit to early adoptors of battery systems if a FiT comes in?

KCross wrote: »

I cant see how you come to that conclusion?
€1k doesnt come close to covering the cost of the batteries, install of same and extra cost of hybrid inverter.

I thought you had come to the same conclusion that battery systems dont add up which is why you havent invested yourself. Have you changed your mind that they are now viable?! I'm finding it hard to keep up with your views unkel!

As you need to put in a battery to obtain the extra 1400 for the panels above 2kw. Grant is 700e per kw but capped at 1400e unless you get a battery. So a 2kw system earns a 1400e grant but a 3kw + battery earns a 3100e grant so in that case the battery is effective zero net cost to the homeowner

KCross wrote: »

The grant for the battery is €1k only. Battery systems cost more than €1k..., add up labour, hybrid inverter, battery and profit for the installer.


I know the battery unlocks additional grants for more panels but you cant really allocate all the grants against the battery and say the battery is then free. If you do you then have to say you have much more expensive panels as they have no grant!

I still dont see how early adoptors of battery systems are going to have a better payback if FiT comes in.

Say for 4k net you could either get 3kw array or 3kw array and 2.6kwh battery system, in that comparison you could consider the battery free.

I agree FIT reduces the necessity of batteries but it's hard to say by how much until we know the rates

KCross wrote: »

I know the battery unlocks additional grants for more panels but you cant really allocate all the grants against the battery and say the battery is then free.

Indeed. That's why I carefully said that if you planned in getting a SEAI installer to install a large PV system anyway, the battery is then more or less free.

It makes little sense to go for a grant install and get 4kwp installed without a battery. It will be overpriced and only give you €1,400 in grants, so it will cost you almost as much as going for a same size system with a battery and get €3,800 in grants