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Property Market 2019

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    #2162
    Wildly Boaring
    Registered Users Posts: 3,634 ✭✭✭Wildly Boaring


    Dolbhad wrote: »
    I’d rather it take a few extra months to close than have any issues down the line. The day you buy is the day you sell!!

    Amen

    Selling now. Bought 5 years ago.

    My old solicitor missed 2 piss easy things. Shouldnt slow the sale but making sale harder than it should be.

    I pushed hard to get the original purchase done in 8 weeks. My solicitor should have done her job originally but maybe a few extra days / weeks would have helped.


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    #2163
    thomasdylan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 514 ✭✭✭thomasdylan


    I'm a complete novice about anything to do with buying a house so reading through this thread has been an education.

    I'll be planning on buying in about 6 months in Dublin. Budget is 400-440k, could be higher if get a 4x salary exeption (have been told we'd be likely to get because of job but don't want to count on that). I've had a quick look on daft at house prices but have been told that often bids start at 10-20% above this and almost all houses are selling for well above the asking price. Should I be looking at houses listed in the 350-375 range given my budget?


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    #2164
    Sarn
    Registered Users Posts: 3,063 ✭✭✭Sarn


    It really depends on whether or not the asking price is realistic. We always went in well under asking and looked to see where it went. A neighbours house went up last year with an asking about 30k below what others achieved, purely to drum up interest. It ended up going for 90k over asking. There was another that had an asking 150k over what others had achieved. The asking was revised downwards several times.

    Areas of the market appear to have stabilised so just keep your options open.


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    #2165
    holliehobbie
    Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭holliehobbie


    Two two-bed apartments for sale near me in Dublin. For sale for months now. One has reduced their asking price by €15,000 already and they are both on the market at the same asking price now. I think both of them were rented out. Also all of the apartment owners had to recently fork out, I think, €12,000 each to bring the building up to current fire safety standards.


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    #2166
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Given the same location and standard, would a 2 bed house be worth less or more than a 2 bed apartment.


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    #2167
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Given the same location and standard, would a 2 bed house be worth less or more than a 2 bed apartment.

    In general, probably more. It does depend on a few factors though.


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    #2168
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Amirani wrote: »
    In general, probably more. It does depend on a few factors though.

    What would the factors be


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    #2169
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    Islander13 wrote: »
    Correct, very few to no TDs own shares in REITs. Next conspiracy theory please

    Did you read through the list and work out who had property investments?


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    #2170
    Gloomtastic!
    Registered Users Posts: 8,376 ✭✭✭Gloomtastic!


    Islander13 wrote: »
    Correct, very few to no TDs own shares in REITs. Next conspiracy theory please

    If TD’s want to hide their dubious assets, they register them in their spouse’s name.


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    #2171
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    What would the factors be

    If it's not a great area, then apartment may feel more secure and secluded. Similar for a city centre sort of property.

    Otherwise though, assuming similar standard and location, house would probably be a bit more expensive.


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    #2172
    UsBus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,390 ✭✭✭UsBus


    Wildly Boaring wrote: »
    Yeah but I pulled out of a deal 2 years ago.

    After 3 months the seller still couldn't produce his deeds nevermind a contract.

    Sales fall for various reasons and a non-refundable deposit needs to be at a certain stage. ie Engineers survey and valuation by seller. Buyer with all documents in place. As it is now......

    Thought this was me for a second..!
    Am currently 4 months sale agreed, sellers solicitor told us contracts would be issued shortly which was 3 months ago. Deeds have still not been released and so no contracts to sign. My mortgage approval & loan offer have run out because of this.
    I'm furious that sellers are allowed to put their house up for sale and let a buyer fork out the cost of engineer reports, valuations & solicitors fees for work carried out only to let things drag out and possibly collapse due to a lack of organisation on their part.

    The whole property sales process with auctioneers and solicitors in this country is a farce where the consumer is the only one to lose out when it goes wrong.


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    #2173
    voluntary
    Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    Reversal wrote: »
    CSO property price index is out for April. Cooling off in Dublin continues.

    "In Dublin, residential property prices rose by 0.5% in the year to April, with no change in house prices and apartments rising by 2.2%. The highest house price growth in Dublin was in South Dublin at 4.0%, while Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown saw the greatest decline in house prices (1.5%)."

    What's happening in Dún Laoghaire? Every month over 1% down.


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    #2174
    holliehobbie
    Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭holliehobbie


    The last two bed house (end of terrace in the same small estate) sold for €110,000 more than the asking price for the apartments just over a year ago!!


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    #2175
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    holliehobbie wrote: »
    The last two bed house (end of terrace in the same small estate) sold for €110,000 more than the asking price for the apartments just over a year ago!!

    May I ask what area? And price it sold for?


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    #2176
    holliehobbie
    Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭holliehobbie


    voluntary wrote: »
    Reversal wrote: »
    CSO property price index is out for April. Cooling off in Dublin continues.

    "In Dublin, residential property prices rose by 0.5% in the year to April, with no change in house prices and apartments rising by 2.2%. The highest house price growth in Dublin was in South Dublin at 4.0%, while Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown saw the greatest decline in house prices (1.5%)."

    What's happening in Dún Laoghaire? Every month over 1% down.
    Because they are mad prices to begin with?


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    #2177
    voluntary
    Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    UsBus wrote: »

    The whole property sales process with auctioneers and solicitors in this country is a farce where the consumer is the only one to lose out when it goes wrong.

    The irony is the whole process involving solicitors has been established to offer protection to consumer! Ah that law of unintended consequences.


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    #2178
    Wildly Boaring
    Registered Users Posts: 3,634 ✭✭✭Wildly Boaring


    UsBus wrote: »
    The whole property sales process with auctioneers and solicitors in this country is a farce where the consumer is the only one to lose out when it goes wrong.

    If the buyer pulls out for no reason it's the seller loses out.

    Would be much better if estate agents did a real job rather than the second hand car salesman act.

    They should have a list of documents that a seller must have to put house on market - including deeds, planning permission, certs of compliance..... in other countries they insist on independent engineer report at this stage.

    Then all purchasers should be mortgage approved and life assurance approved, or proof of cash. If in a chain and seller prepared to accept all corresponding paperwork in place.

    Instead ring local auctioneer and your house is on Daft in 4 hours with a fella throwing up a sign outside the next mornI'llng.


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    #2179
    Bigmac1euro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,458 ✭✭✭Bigmac1euro


    Some findings from an area in Dublin I'm looking at - Walkinstown.
    Data from property price register. I've thrown the first 6 months of the last 5 years into a spreadsheet and got the averages and quantity sold.


    2015 - €289,696.55 (30 properties)
    2016 - €271,789.83 (47 properties)
    2017 - €309,372.25 (43 properties)
    2018 - €344,589.09 (43 properties)
    2019 - €365,800.12 (29 properties)

    Are we at tipping point ? Bearing in mind there's 17 days left this month.


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    #2180
    holliehobbie
    Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭holliehobbie


    Dublin.


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    #2181
    holliehobbie
    Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭holliehobbie


    Bigmac1euro wrote: »
    Some findings from an area in Dublin I'm looking at - Walkinstown.
    Data from property price register. I've thrown the first 6 months of the last 5 years into a spreadsheet and got the averages and quantity sold.


    2015 - €289,696.55 (30 properties)
    2016 - €271,789.83 (47 properties)
    2017 - €309,372.25 (43 properties)
    2018 - €344,589.09 (43 properties)
    2019 - €365,800.12 (29 properties)

    Are we at tipping point ? Bearing in mind there's 17 days left this month.
    I think people are being priced out of Dublin 8 and other areas of Dublin 12.


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    #2182
    SirGerryAdams
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 499 ✭✭SirGerryAdams


    If you liked to believe history repeats itself, the graph looks like we're about Jan 2007.

    Would love a nice 25% drop!


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    #2183
    tobsey
    Registered Users Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭tobsey


    SirGerryAdams wrote: »
    If you liked to believe history repeats itself, the graph looks like we're about Jan 2007.

    Would love a nice 25% drop!

    That drop happened once ever. People talk about economic cycles as if they apply to house prices in this country. They don’t. We’ve had one era of substantial price drops ever. That was 2008-2013. It had never happened before then. There have been cycles in the economy, where we go from boom to bust, but that only happened to property once ever. I don’t know why people are so certain it’ll happen again.

    I believe we’ve reached peak affordability. That’s why prices are flatlining. That doesn’t mean they’re going to drop. The rental return at the moment means that just won’t happen. People can afford the homes you’d expect them to afford, no more and no less. Also due to the central bank measures it’s much less likely that people are over extended. Therefore it’s less likely there’ll be fire sales, like there were in the crash.

    I’d expect very modest price growth in the next few years, probably less than 2%, in line with inflation. All the people hoping for a crash, you are the ones that will prevent it. Once prices fall you will buy and keep the prices propped up.


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    #2184
    adriaaaan
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭adriaaaan


    tobsey wrote: »
    That drop happened once ever. People talk about economic cycles as if they apply to house prices in this country. They don’t. We’ve had one era of substantial price drops ever. That was 2008-2013. It had never happened before then. There have been cycles in the economy, where we go from boom to bust, but that only happened to property once ever. I don’t know why people are so certain it’ll happen again.

    I believe we’ve reached peak affordability. That’s why prices are flatlining. That doesn’t mean they’re going to drop. The rental return at the moment means that just won’t happen. People can afford the homes you’d expect them to afford, no more and no less. Also due to the central bank measures it’s much less likely that people are over extended. Therefore it’s less likely there’ll be fire sales, like there were in the crash.

    I’d expect very modest price growth in the next few years, probably less than 2%, in line with inflation. All the people hoping for a crash, you are the ones that will prevent it. Once prices fall you will buy and keep the prices propped up.

    This is on point. Also note that 2008 was not your normal business cycle bust. It was the greatest catastrophe that the global economy has ever faced, in the history of civilization. Nothing comes close to how serious it was and I am paraphrasing economic historians not offering an opinion. Corrections, recessions will happen again but the 2008 crash was a one of a kind.
    Also don't wishcast a 25% house price drop. Would you like us back in the recession of 2010 just so you think you could buy a house in dalkey?


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    #2185
    Cal4567
    Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    thomasdylan wrote: »
    I'm a complete novice about anything to do with buying a house so reading through this thread has been an education.

    I'll be planning on buying in about 6 months in Dublin. Budget is 400-440k, could be higher if get a 4x salary exeption (have been told we'd be likely to get because of job but don't want to count on that). I've had a quick look on daft at house prices but have been told that often bids start at 10-20% above this and almost all houses are selling for well above the asking price. Should I be looking at houses listed in the 350-375 range given my budget?

    The market has flatlined. Do not listen to a word that comes out of the lips of the agent. Make offers below the asking price on everything. Do not offer over.


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    #2186
    SirGerryAdams
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 499 ✭✭SirGerryAdams


    tobsey wrote: »
    That drop happened once ever. People talk about economic cycles as if they apply to house prices in this country. They don’t. We’ve had one era of substantial price drops ever. That was 2008-2013. It had never happened before then. There have been cycles in the economy, where we go from boom to bust, but that only happened to property once ever. I don’t know why people are so certain it’ll happen again.

    I believe we’ve reached peak affordability. That’s why prices are flatlining. That doesn’t mean they’re going to drop. The rental return at the moment means that just won’t happen. People can afford the homes you’d expect them to afford, no more and no less. Also due to the central bank measures it’s much less likely that people are over extended. Therefore it’s less likely there’ll be fire sales, like there were in the crash.

    I’d expect very modest price growth in the next few years, probably less than 2%, in line with inflation. All the people hoping for a crash, you are the ones that will prevent it. Once prices fall you will buy and keep the prices propped up.

    Well just because it happened once doesn't mean it isn't likely to happen again.

    I think if we have a loss of jobs a big drop isn't unlikely.

    Historically Ireland hasn't had such a number of foreign nationals living here.

    If we had a recession and jobs were lost a lot of foreigners would leave, foreign students wouldn't come here etc.

    I'm waiting anyways. The risk of waiting is far lower than the risk of me buying in at the wrong time.


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    #2187
    Jack_92
    Registered Users Posts: 41 ✭Jack_92


    Cal4567 wrote: »
    The market has flatlined. Do not listen to a word that comes out of the lips of the agent. Make offers below the asking price on everything. Do not offer over.

    The market has been flatlining but if it's a desirable area, especially in Dublin you will quickly realise that that trying going sale agreed while offering below asking price is close to impossible. You will be waiting for a while. Just pay for what you think it's worth it.


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    #2188
    Bigmac1euro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,458 ✭✭✭Bigmac1euro


    I think some people are obsessed with saying “it’s not going to be like the last recession” everyone and their dog knows that. People are just being hopeful of a crash. Everyone is looking for a 10% drop or something id imagine. I’m not hanging around for a crash myself, I realised it’s pointless. When the time is right the time is right. Most likely next year.
    The reason I pulled the above averages is because I thought it might be interesting to some people. Average price is still going up by the looks of it. If anyone can think of another area in Dublin to pull the averages from I would do that to compare. Preferably areas with no apartments and quite middle or working class.

    I did do one area in particular but the figures where way off and the reason for that is because a REIT bought 31 apartments and it made the average 120,000 when the houses are selling for 350 etc.


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    #2189
    voluntary
    Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    The Irish crash has been exceptional and indeed not that likely to happen on such a scale. ~30% property market correction would be something expected during market cycle downturns and not 60% or 70% like we have all seen here. I'm talking average numbers. Some properties may get nearly written off, while others may never see any significant drop.

    There are however scenarios where properties would get a massive hit. One would be where multinational capital/corporation turns away from Ireland. That would be an economic and social disaster. An end of a long lasting era that would be. Another scenario is where some serious unexpected chain of events happens in regards to brexit / trump's tarrifs / Italy's debt etc.

    "Disclaimer:

    All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of money you invest, and past performance does not guarantee future performance. Historical returns, expected returns, and probability projections are provided for informational and illustrative purposes, and may not reflect actual future performance"


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    #2190
    voluntary
    Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    Bigmac1euro wrote: »
    People are just being hopeful of a crash. Everyone is looking for a 10% drop or something id imagine.

    Yes, and that's what they think now: "we'll buy after correction". The reality is, there would be so much FUD in the markets when properties hit 10% drop that near nobody would buying anything. People would be bracing for survival. Job losses all over the place, businesses closing down, emigration and things like that.
    There's no property crash without huge effects in the wider economy and a massive FEAR.


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    #2191
    scheister
    Registered Users Posts: 1,305 ✭✭✭scheister


    When looking at property it is not a simple black and white answer.

    If buying your forever home affordability is the key not if prices are going up and down.
    I will be looking to buy next summer what will hopefully be my forever home. All I care about is that i can afford the house not what the prices were this year or the year after.
    I am seeing in my area and increase in apartments for sale in last 12-18 months. My thinking on these are the people who bought at the height of the boom are finally coming out of negative equity and moving as they are free to now.


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