Property Market 2019

0gac3yjefb5sv7

I have gone sale agreed a 2 bed for approx 326k close to city.

I recently noticed on the PPR a similar 3 bed house for 315 in April with attic conversion (unofficial bedroom/storage), back garden and completely detached.

Mine is in slightly better condition, better insulation, end of terrace. There's is detached. They had to put 15/20k into it but I feel mine is fairly well over priced....another 2 bed in great condition with attic conversion and garden has sold for 325. I feel like I'm getting the raw deal...

smurgen

Bluefoam wrote: »

I actually agree with you point of view... not thet I think you are right, I just agree that you can hold that point of view and do as you wish.

However, I find a certain smugness in the way you put it... Each to their own...

I'm happy and you're happy.good all round! And thank god prices are starting to come back to reality.

Bbborris

Wildly Boaring wrote: »

We had an offer 20k over asking on our place.

Asking prices and their relationship to actual prices have no bearing on peaks

I suppose what I'm trying to say is 2/3 years ago, that house would of got asking. There would of been a lot of bidding. There wasn't much of that for this property, which I found surprising, as it is within the average FTB prices.

Twenty Grand

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I have gone sale agreed a 2 bed for approx 326k close to city.

I recently noticed on the PPR a similar 3 bed house for 315 in April with attic conversion (unofficial bedroom/storage), back garden and completely detached.

Mine is in slightly better condition, better insulation, end of terrace. There's is detached. They had to put 15/20k into it but I feel mine is fairly well over priced....another 2 bed in great condition with attic conversion and garden has sold for 325. I feel like I'm getting the raw deal...

If you haven't signed a contract then nothing stops you pulling out of the sale and renegotiating.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

This time we may get the soft landing.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Twenty Grand wrote: »

If you haven't signed a contract then nothing stops you pulling out of the sale and renegotiating.

How would one go about that? As in lowering the bid?

Wouldn't I risk them just saying no way and I lose...

SirGerryAdams

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

This time we may get the soft landing.

:cool:

Wildly Boaring

Pheonix10 wrote: »

How would one go about that? As in lowering the bid?

Wouldn't I risk them just saying no way and I lose...

Yep you could piss them off completely.

Bigmac1euro

smurgen wrote: »

As someone with the means to buy i think I'll keeo renting.noticing a big cooling off also in cork and I'll save myself a bomb in the longer term.

I think you’d be a fool to buy at this moment in time. I think your on the money. The market has hit the roof. Should start slowly falling now. This is the year it has finally changed flow. It can’t go up any further, people cannot afford most of the areas they would like to buy, houses are sitting on daft for months and years in some cases.

The_Conductor

Pheonix10 wrote: »

How would one go about that? As in lowering the bid?

Wouldn't I risk them just saying no way and I lose...

Seems like there is plenty of availability in the area one way or the other- if they did tell you to take a hike, would that be the end of the world? You're not emotionally vested in the property?

duffman13

Pheonix10 wrote: »

How would one go about that? As in lowering the bid?

Wouldn't I risk them just saying no way and I lose...

Well that's exactly what you'll be doing tbh, lower your bid by all means but I know if someone offered me x and came back and offered 10k or so less cause he felt he'd over bid I'd say good luck.

Is there any other prices to compare it to? Might have been a mitigating circumstance in the price being cheaper for the 3 bed ie family friend or family member or something

awec

Eric Cartman wrote: »

many have accepted that a lot of properties have now hit the cap that the central bank limits (for once something done right) allow for. See a lot of properties put up for ambitious prices in recent months being shown with 20-40k drops beside them on daft. Particularly larger detached houses outside cities where they arent a great rental investment. I wouldnt necissarily use the word 'cooling' but we're certainly hitting the ceiling now. Many people playing a wage inflation game to try and get over those limits but its just not happening, wage stagnation and those central bank rules are holding us pretty firm here for a while yet.

Right, eventually we'll hit a ceiling, and maybe we're getting very close to it. But that doesn't tally with what he's saying below.

We could be stuck at this ceiling for years. We won't see widespread reductions of any significance unless demand drops significantly or supply increases significantly. The idea that once prices stop going up that they'll automatically start coming down is a fallacy.

smurgen wrote: »

I'm happy and you're happy.good all round! And thank god prices are starting to come back to reality.

Which suggests significant price drops are occurring across the market, which I am skeptical of.

The_Conductor

awec wrote: »

Right, eventually we'll hit a ceiling, and maybe we're getting very close to it. But that doesn't tally with what he's saying below.

We haven't quite hit a ceiling- but price increases have slowed right down- and there are falls in some areas (such as West Dublin). The only reason there are increases at all- is runaway increases are continuing in some areas.

awec wrote: »

We could be stuck at this ceiling for years. We won't see widespread reductions of any significance unless demand drops significantly or supply increases significantly. The idea that once prices stop going up that they'll automatically start coming down is a fallacy.

We do have an increase in supply- we're conservatively expected to construct 21k units this year- which is an increase of nearly 3k on last years figures- and we have an additional 24,000 people in nursing homes who have signed up their homes under the Fair Deal scheme- which is dripfeeding an additional 4k units per annum onto the market.

Prices are not bouncing at the upper limits of people's borrowing capacity- as price falls are happening- what is happening is people are changing their expectations- and buying elsewhere- so some areas that were near the top of borrowing capacities- are dropping like a stone (think of South Lucan for example)- whereas other areas- are continuing to see some small scale increases.........

So- we are getting supply side issues resolved- and people are getting pickier about where they're willing to buy (and indeed- in many cases, whether they're willing to buy- as there is an increasing cohort out there who are expecting price falls- and expect to save long term- by continuing to rent).

awec wrote: »

Which suggests significant price drops are occurring across the market, which I am skeptical of.

Price falls are happening- but its not across the board- less desirable areas which people might have been willing to consider when they had fewer options- are seeing consistent drops. Gentrified and more desirable areas- are not seeing commensurate drops. I.e. the old mantra of location-location-location is rearing its head- people are less likely to buy any old crap just to buy something- they are getting picky about what they're willing to buy- and where they're willing to buy.

This is 'normal' though- and is a sign that the Irish market is returning to some semblence of 'normal' after a protracted hiatus (arguably since the early noughties- before the whole property lark of the noughties heated up).

Reversal

"As long as demand outstrips supply prices won't drop!!!!"

Oh wait...

"Housing sales have lagged behind supply recently which has led to an increase in the unsold stock of homes, according to the quarterly 'Irish Economy Health Check'."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/helptobuy-scheme-will-need-extension-to-hit-housing-goals-38224593.html

Wildly Boaring

The_Conductor wrote: »

We haven't quite hit a ceiling- but price increases have slowed right down- and there are falls in some areas (such as West Dublin). The only reason there are increases at all- is runaway increases are continuing in some areas.



We do have an increase in supply- we're conservatively expected to construct 21k units this year- which is an increase of nearly 3k on last years figures- and we have an additional 24,000 people in nursing homes who have signed up their homes under the Fair Deal scheme- which is dripfeeding an additional 4k units per annum onto the market.

Prices are not bouncing at the upper limits of people's borrowing capacity- as price falls are happening- what is happening is people are changing their expectations- and buying elsewhere- so some areas that were near the top of borrowing capacities- are dropping like a stone (think of South Lucan for example)- whereas other areas- are continuing to see some small scale increases.........

So- we are getting supply side issues resolved- and people are getting pickier about where they're willing to buy (and indeed- in many cases, whether they're willing to buy- as there is an increasing cohort out there who are expecting price falls- and expect to save long term- by continuing to rent).



Price falls are happening- but its not across the board- less desirable areas which people might have been willing to consider when they had fewer options- are seeing consistent drops. Gentrified and more desirable areas- are not seeing commensurate drops. I.e. the old mantra of location-location-location is rearing its head- people are less likely to buy any old crap just to buy something- they are getting picky about what they're willing to buy- and where they're willing to buy.

This is 'normal' though- and is a sign that the Irish market is returning to some semblence of 'normal' after a protracted hiatus (arguably since the early noughties- before the whole property lark of the noughties heated up).

Wouldn't it be great for it to just be normal.

We have this need to bet on property here due to the dysfunctional market. Always betting and trying to second guess.

Be great to have steady prices with minor corrections.

Samuel T. Cogley

Reversal wrote: »

"As long as demand outstrips supply prices won't drop!!!!"

Oh wait...

"Housing sales have lagged behind supply recently which has led to an increase in the unsold stock of homes, according to the quarterly 'Irish Economy Health Check'."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/helptobuy-scheme-will-need-extension-to-hit-housing-goals-38224593.html

On the back of weaker sales in the residential property market, the uncertainty around the help-to-buy scheme, and the ability of housebuilders to scale, Goodbody has revised down its home completion forecasts for this year to 21,000 units from 22,000 units, far short of the estimated 35,000 units that are needed each year to deal with current demand.

From the above linked piece.

Twenty Grand

Wildly Boaring wrote: »

Yep you could piss them off completely.

Yup!

Buut, you may also have them over a barrel.

You're sale agreed. They're prepping to move out and want the cash ASAP.
If you offer less they might not want the hassle of relisting and going thru the process again.

It's underhanded for sure, they may tell you to f*ck right off, or they may lower their price.

Up to you, but if youre saving 15, 20k then it might be worth it.

awec

Reversal wrote: »

"As long as demand outstrips supply prices won't drop!!!!"

Oh wait...

"Housing sales have lagged behind supply recently which has led to an increase in the unsold stock of homes, according to the quarterly 'Irish Economy Health Check'."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/helptobuy-scheme-will-need-extension-to-hit-housing-goals-38224593.html

You should try reading the rest of the article too rather than one sentence.

The_Conductor

Honestly- I don't think anyone in their wildest dreams ever thought we needed 35k units per annum in Ireland- and the reason for the fall in construction forecast (if you read the article)- is more that we lack the capacity to build (aka we don't have the construction workers)- rather than anything else.

We're building 21k units this year (possibly more)- which is an increase of nearly 3k units on last year- and in addition- we're getting a dripfeed of nearly 4k units per annum onto our secondhand market- compliments of the Fair Deal Scheme (with nearly 24k properties- as of the end of May in the scheme).

We have 25k units between new builds and Fair Deal Scheme properties- hitting the market this year- which some commentators have suggested is our actual sustainable level of addition to our available housing stock. In addition- immigration into Ireland is falling- and emigration is increasing- something that few commentators had forecast for some time to come. Our rate of population increase- is falling (it is still rising- but not at the anticipated pace).

There are lots of funny things happening out there.

alwald

The 35K unit was based on figures calculated few years ago but the market has changed since. A quick look into Daft will show that new houses in Co Dublin are not selling at the moment despite the fact that the FTB scheme is still available.

What we need isn't 35K units per year but rather 35K affordable units because current prices are way too high as prices increased dramatically in the last few years.

ZX7R

Just thought I'd add my two cents
I am emergrating from Ireland in one and half years,so I decided to get my house valued it a 30 year old terriced house outside newbridge 10 min drive from motorway it was valued at €170000.
The valuer said he has about 20 to 30 people on there list looking for housing just outside commuter belt and when n7 roads works are completed . the value will increase.
Most of the buyers are from Dublin but many from maynooth nass and Wicklow.

I got it valued last week,they have rang me six times to inquire would I sell sooner.
According to the sales person these people have mortgage approved and ready to buy.
I also have had two people one neighbor and one work mate who want to buy but by privately.

Looks like people want smaller mortgages and will travel a bit further to get to work to get them.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

The_Conductor wrote: »

Honestly- I don't think anyone in their wildest dreams ever thought we needed 35k units per annum in Ireland- and the reason for the fall in construction forecast (if you read the article)- is more that we lack the capacity to build (aka we don't have the construction workers)- rather than anything else.

We're building 21k units this year (possibly more)- which is an increase of nearly 3k units on last year- and in addition- we're getting a dripfeed of nearly 4k units per annum onto our secondhand market- compliments of the Fair Deal Scheme (with nearly 24k properties- as of the end of May in the scheme).

We have 25k units between new builds and Fair Deal Scheme properties- hitting the market this year- which some commentators have suggested is our actual sustainable level of addition to our available housing stock. In addition- immigration into Ireland is falling- and emigration is increasing- something that few commentators had forecast for some time to come. Our rate of population increase- is falling (it is still rising- but not at the anticipated pace).

There are lots of funny things happening out there.

That’s interesting. do you have a source for the latter claim.

smurgen

The_Conductor wrote: »

Honestly- I don't think anyone in their wildest dreams ever thought we needed 35k units per annum in Ireland- and the reason for the fall in construction forecast (if you read the article)- is more that we lack the capacity to build (aka we don't have the construction workers)- rather than anything else.

We're building 21k units this year (possibly more)- which is an increase of nearly 3k units on last year- and in addition- we're getting a dripfeed of nearly 4k units per annum onto our secondhand market- compliments of the Fair Deal Scheme (with nearly 24k properties- as of the end of May in the scheme).

We have 25k units between new builds and Fair Deal Scheme properties- hitting the market this year- which some commentators have suggested is our actual sustainable level of addition to our available housing stock. In addition- immigration into Ireland is falling- and emigration is increasing- something that few commentators had forecast for some time to come. Our rate of population increase- is falling (it is still rising- but not at the anticipated pace).

There are lots of funny things happening out there.

Shhhhh.don't you know prices can only go up!

Marius34

The_Conductor wrote: »

In addition- immigration into Ireland is falling- and emigration is increasing- something that few commentators had forecast for some time to come. Our rate of population increase- is falling (it is still rising- but not at the anticipated pace).

Based on Labor force statistics, its very different data. Population over 15 years increase is growing significantly:
People over 15 years old, which includes in labor force + not in labor force:

Total Change
2013Q1 3616.9 13.5
2014Q1 3640.8 23.9
2015Q1 3676.2 35.4
2016Q1 3721.8 45.6
2017Q1 3776.0 54.2
2018Q1 3824.0 48
2019Q1 3896.5 72.5

so not sure where you got this information, that it's otherwise?

beauf

smurgen wrote: »

Shhhhh.don't you know prices can only go up!

I think you should wait 10yrs to buy. let us know how it works out.

beauf

ZX7R wrote: »

J...Looks like people want smaller mortgages and will travel a bit further to get to work to get them.

Maybe people are realising it has to be affordable over the next 20-30yrs.

awec

smurgen wrote: »

Shhhhh.don't you know prices can only go up!

Said absolutely nobody ever.

Prices WILL go down at some point. You seem to be under the impression that you're one of the few geniuses on here who can see this, despite the fact that there probably is not a poster on this forum who doesn't know that prices will go down.

I can guarantee you that some day prices in Ireland will show consistent drops. And if you keep saying the same thing over and over again, eventually it'll happen, and you can come back and impress us all with how you predicted this when nobody else was able to see it.

beauf

Even a broken clock is right twice a day....

JJJackal

beauf wrote: »

Even a broken clock is right twice a day....

and maybe three times a day once a year and one time a day another day LOL

:cool:

Franz Von Peppercorn II

beauf wrote: »

Even a broken clock is right twice a day....

I really hate that phrase.