Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

robinph · 12-06-2019 10:38AM

I could see the 50 Brexit predicted seats switching to dark blue in the event of a Boris as PM, but 150 Labour seats switching? Really?

20silkcut · 12-06-2019 10:40AM

Raab appears to pull most votes back from the brexit party for the Tories.

I would take Johnson over Raab. I think there might be some glimmer of pragmatism deep down in Johnson particularly when it comes to saving his own skin. Raab would without doubt drive off the cliff with his foot to the floor.

12-06-2019 10:47AM

20silkcut wrote: »

Raab appears to pull most votes back from the brexit party for the Tories.

I would take Johnson over Raab. I think there might be some glimmer of pragmatism deep down in Johnson particularly when it comes to saving his own skin. Raab would without doubt drive off the cliff with his foot to the floor.

Johnson takes the most votes from the Brexit party - he wipes them out.
I can imagine that lots of marginal seats would swing to the conservatives if they picked up all the Brexit party/ UKIP votes and just some of the Labour Leaver votes.
The Lib Dems might take some remain votes from Labour giving an extra edge to the Tories in marginal areas.

20silkcut · 12-06-2019 10:56AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Johnson takes the most votes from the Brexit party - he wipes them out.
I can imagine that lots of marginal seats would swing to the conservatives if they picked up all the Brexit party/ UKIP votes and just some of the Labour Leaver votes.
The Lib Dems might take some remain votes from Labour giving an extra edge to the Tories in marginal areas.

Just going by the graphic on the previous page. The Brexit party has 50 seats under Johnson as pm and 24 seats with Raab as PM.

12-06-2019 10:59AM

20silkcut wrote: »

Just going by the graphic on the previous page. The Brexit party has 50 seats under Johnson as pm and 24 seats with Raab as PM.

The 50 seats is the current voting intention.
Johnson is below that.

Sam Russell · 12-06-2019 11:12AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Only God knows where we would be without the EU and what state the north might be in given the complete intransigence of the British State towards it.

There was a letter in yesterday's Irish Times quoting a '70s RTE satirical programme 'Just Slagging'

Foreign Minister and Garrett returning from London following a meeting in Downing St:

'Garrett, I thought you said the Brits would give us Rockall'.

Garrett: 'I never said Rockall'

Some things never change.

ancapailldorcha · 12-06-2019 11:18AM

Dominic Grieve did an interview with the Remainiacs podcast last week. He mentioned that while right wing Tory voters might vote for the Brexit party, nobody seems to be talking about how moderates are likely to vote Lib Dem which is curious. Perhaps because the leadership contest seems to be dictated by catering to the whims of the tiny membership who seem to be more right wing than many Conservative voters.

Incidentally, the New Statesman has recently published an excellent article about the recent decision by the BBC to make over 75s pay the licence fee. Particularly:

Today’s 75-year-olds were born in 1943-4. Even at a time of total war, toddlers were not being conscripted, kitted up and sent to help out at D-day. To have seen combat during the war you’d need to have been born in 1927 or earlier, making you at least 91 today. And while there were a few younger boys who lied about their age in the hope of seeing action, that a) was unusual, and b) shifts the age bar to about 88 at the lowest.

What percentage of British people today are old enough to have served? The most recent figures I can find on the ONS website are from 2017, when the proportion of people aged 73 of over – old enough to have just had their free TV licences revoked – stood at 9.8 per cent. The proportion of people aged 88 or over, though – a fairly generous interpretation of “old enough to be a WW2 veteran” – stood at a much lower 1.4 per cent. The relentless march of time being what it is, in the two years since those stats were compiled, the share of the former group who are also included in the latter is going to have fallen even further.

This is relevant due to the channelling of some sort of quasi-Dunkirk/Blitz spirit from baby boomers who were born in the sixties and the seventies who experienced the war through television and film, not through surviving it.

20silkcut · 12-06-2019 11:19AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Johnson takes the most votes from the Brexit party - he wipes them out.
I can imagine that lots of marginal seats would swing to the conservatives if they picked up all the Brexit party/ UKIP votes and just some of the Labour Leaver votes.
The Lib Dems might take some remain votes from Labour giving an extra edge to the Tories in marginal areas.

Just going by the graphic on the previous page. The Brexit party has 50 seats under Johnson as pm and 24 seats with Raab as PM.

20silkcut · 12-06-2019 11:19AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Johnson takes the most votes from the Brexit party - he wipes them out.
I can imagine that lots of marginal seats would swing to the conservatives if they picked up all the Brexit party/ UKIP votes and just some of the Labour Leaver votes.
The Lib Dems might take some remain votes from Labour giving an extra edge to the Tories in marginal areas.

Just going by the graphic on the previous page. The Brexit party has 50 seats under Johnson as pm and 24 seats with Raab as PM.

20silkcut · 12-06-2019 11:21AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The 50 seats is the current voting intention.
Johnson is below that.

Correct I read it wrong.

Sam Russell · 12-06-2019 11:33AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is relevant due to the channelling of some sort of quasi-Dunkirk/Blitz spirit from baby boomers who were born in the sixties and the seventies who experienced the war through television and film, not through surviving it.

Baby boomers were born in the post war era - late forties and fifties. The were the ones involved in the sixties sexual liberation, and are currently over sixty and into seventy. They were fed on the British WW II films like 'The Great Escape', 'The Dam Busters', and 'The Battle of Britain'. These all involved the British soldier as the plucky hero showing the right spirit of the war time.

The ones born later were a different bunch altogether.

Hurrache · 12-06-2019 11:34AM

Johnson actually having some tough questions asked of him, his cronies of course boo'd Beth Rigby when she asked about the language he uses, such as calling veiled women Letterboxes.

He actually defends this by claiming that the ordinary people want to hear people talk like this and not be alienated by the political language they use. Jaysus.

ancapailldorcha · 12-06-2019 11:36AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Baby boomers were born in the post war era - late forties and fifties. The were the ones involved in the sixties sexual liberation, and are currently over sixty and into seventy. They were fed on the British WW II films like 'The Great Escape', 'The Dam Busters', and 'The Battle of Britain'. These all involved the British soldier as the plucky hero showing the right spirit of the war time.

The ones born later were a different bunch altogether.

Thanks for the correction.

There is indeed an incredibly strong trope of the plucky underdog in British culture. What's remarkable is that somehow oligarchs, press barons, Etonians and privately educated city traders have managed to successfully employ this trope for their own ends.

traco · 12-06-2019 11:51AM

Hurrache wrote: »

Johnson actually having some tough questions asked of him, his cronies of course boo'd Beth Rigby when she asked about the language he uses, such as calling veiled women Letterboxes.

He actually defends this by claiming that the ordinary people want to hear people talk like this and not be alienated by the political language they use. Jaysus.

Just listened to it - he didn't answer a single question directly. UK politics is in some mess

devnull · 12-06-2019 12:03PM

Just listned to Boris talking and taking questions, he didn't bother to answer any, just went off-topic and deflected everything and didn't address any directly, completely pathetic.

Lots of soundbites, rhetoric and lots of phrases and empy words without anything to back them up once again, where have we seen this before I wonder?

They might have a new leader soon, but to coin a phrase of their old one, "Nothing has changed, Nothing has changed."

Hurrache · 12-06-2019 12:06PM

And prior to the Q&A he said he'd only take 6 questions, his advisers still keeping him on a tight rein. Nobody asks him about the alleged criminality in the Leave campaign, nor his claims of the NHS gaining £350 million a week on the side of the red bus.

10000maniacs · 12-06-2019 12:28PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

There was a letter in yesterday's Irish Times quoting a '70s RTE satirical programme 'Just Slagging'

Foreign Minister and Garrett returning from London following a meeting in Downing St:

'Garrett, I thought you said the Brits would give us Rockall'.

Garrett: 'I never said Rockall'

Some things never change.

This Rockall situation amazes me. Scotland is Ireland's friend when everything is hunky dory. But when any situation like this arises, the Union Jack card comes out very quickly in Edinburgh. A little bit too quickly for my liking in this situation.

RobMc59 · 12-06-2019 12:50PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Thanks for the correction.

There is indeed an incredibly strong trope of the plucky underdog in British culture. What's remarkable is that somehow oligarchs, press barons, Etonians and privately educated city traders have managed to successfully employ this trope for their own ends.

It's always been like that-they're the ones who used to blow the whistle-"right lads,all over the top!".

EKRIUQ · 12-06-2019 01:11PM

I don't think the whole race for the new conservative leader has anything to do with Brexit, they are tasked with picking the best person to lead them into the next general election and who as leader will give them the best chance of saving their seat.

Boris seems to be very popular with a lot of the electorate so I can see most conservative MP's going with him.

Sam Russell · 12-06-2019 01:12PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

This Rockall situation amazes me. Scotland is Ireland's friend when everything is hunky dory. But when any situation like this arises, the Union Jack card comes out very quickly in Edinburgh. A little bit too quickly for my liking in this situation.

It sounds to me like a rogue minister did a solo run. It did not feature on the BBC News website, nor the Scotsman website, nor the Guardian, nor the Telegraph. In fact, totally ignored by the British media. It is almost like how a Healy-Rae announcement would be treated here by the media, but jumped on by the red tops in the UK.

It is a complete rubbish approach to Irish-Scottish relations at this particular time. Sturgeon attempting to quieten things, and is on the back foot as seemingly not prepared to disown the Rockall boulder but also not having raised it on her very recent trip to Dublin, it does sound hollow, and makes her look either out of control or duplicitous.

Not a good position for her to be. She needs every friend she can get and this does nothing to forward Scotland's interests. The whole thing comes across as very fishy.

Hurrache · 12-06-2019 01:22PM

It's getting daily coverage in the Times UK, both in the UK and Irish edition. It's bizarre all the same. Today it says that the Scottish patrol has left the Rockall waters, albeit the story reduced to the Scottish section.

And I see what you did there.

Laois_Man · 12-06-2019 01:44PM

I was actually irritated by Johnson's constant referring to sorting things out with their partners across the channel. He already seems to be oblivious to the fact that his biggest problem is in the opposite direction.

The last question was the only one of real substance on Brexit and he didn't even answer it. And I'm even more perplexed as to how Laura Kuenssberg has a job at the BBC. Awful question from a truly dreadful "journalist"!

devnull · 12-06-2019 01:51PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

The last question was the only one of real substance on Brexit and he didn't even answer it. And I'm even more perplexed as to how Laura Kuenssberg has a job at the BBC. Awful question from a truly dreadful "journalist"!

I didn't catch the last question fully, what was it?

boggerman1 · 12-06-2019 01:53PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

I was actually irritated by Johnson's constant referring to sorting things out with their partners across the channel. He already seems to be oblivious to the fact that his biggest problem is in the opposite direction.

The last question was the only one of real substance on Brexit and he didn't even answer it. And I'm even more perplexed as to how Laura Kuenssberg has a job at the BBC. Awful question from a truly dreadful "journalist"!

Laura k and is it Kate Adler are two of a kind.both utterly useless.if things were bad with thr robotic May as PM get the popcorn ready when the blonde bimbo is PM

Hurrache · 12-06-2019 01:57PM

I have many issues with her, but the question I heard Kuenssberg ask today was reasonable, she asked about his inconsistencies in his stance on no deal.

Laois_Man · 12-06-2019 02:05PM

devnull wrote: »

I didn't catch the last question fully, what was it?

From The Guardian, who asked what happens when the EU won't renegotiate and MPs wont allow no-deal

Unfortunately he didn't answer it though - other than some bluster about MPs who will magically agree to allow the right thing (Brexit)

Hurrache wrote: »

I have many issues with her, but the question I heard Kuenssberg ask today was reasonable, she asked about his inconsistencies in his stance on no deal.

He had already said he doesn't want no-deal but that it is right to prepare for one. He got to repeat an already made statement, one question down

54and56 · 12-06-2019 02:10PM

devnull wrote: »

Just listned to Boris talking and taking questions, he didn't bother to answer any, just went off-topic and deflected everything and didn't address any directly, completely pathetic.

Lots of soundbites, rhetoric and lots of phrases and empy words without anything to back them up once again

Wait until Andrew Marr and/or Emily Maitlis get their paws on him!!

An Ciarraioch · 12-06-2019 02:14PM

Latest Commission no-deal update:

http://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1138750998456016896

Hurrache · 12-06-2019 02:15PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

He had already said he doesn't want no-deal but that it is right to prepare for one. He got to repeat an already made statement, one question down

And his plan is to renegotiate a new deal. Everyone know this is not possible, including him, so it's a lie. He also says that they will now have better leverage with the EU if they're prepared for a no deal.

So which is it?

Doesn't matter who asked the questions, or how many, he wasn't answering any of them regardless.

BonnieSituation · 12-06-2019 02:16PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest Commission no-deal update:

https://mobile.twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1138750998456016896

I haven't clicked... But i bet the commission are caving...

(Purposeful disingenuousness. Nothing directed at you Mr.)

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Comments