Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Christy42 · 09-06-2019 02:18PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Oh I agree. But I think the Eu would rather this roll on under a new negotiation than grant endless extensions. As someone just said it’s more than likely they’re pissed off and want something anything from the uk right now.
But I can see them going for a redo rather than granting more extensions. And will maybe insist on a second referendum as a price on furhther extension so as to break this endless deadlock

There will be no more negotiations. We have a deal. Why would we redo it? We won't give them anything more so it is of little benefit.

Stop moaning ffs · 09-06-2019 02:19PM

Christy42 wrote: »

There will be no more negotiations. We have a deal. Why would we redo it? We won't give them anything more so it is of little benefit.

Well the new pm is not going to rattle in with mays:eus deal. They just won’t.
So are we left with a no deal situation?

Christy42 · 09-06-2019 02:23PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Well the new pm is not going to rattle in with mays:eus deal. They just won’t.
So are we left with a no deal situation?

Yes. If the UK refuses anything else reasonable we don't have to bend over backwards to suit the UK all the time.

Stop moaning ffs · 09-06-2019 02:27PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Yes. If the UK refuses anything else reasonable we don't have to bend over backwards to suit the UK all the time.

And I hope we/Eu don’t. This is a catastrophe of the uks making.

PeadarCo · 09-06-2019 02:30PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

Well the new pm is not going to rattle in with mays:eus deal. They just wonâ€™t. So are we left with a no deal situation?

In practice it's doubtful if a no deal situation is sustainable for any length of time. So the UK could leave with no deal. But sooner or later they are going to have to do a deal with the EU. Over half the UKs trade is done with the EU or via trade deals the EU negotiated.

If they leave with a no deal they are going to come back to the EU looking for a deal in an even weaker position. So there is no real incentive for the EU to change it's position. A no deal just strengthens the EUs hand when negotiating the long term deal. Remember we are only taking about the transitional deal not the long term deal.

volchitsa · 09-06-2019 02:46PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Oh I agree. But I think the Eu would rather this roll on under a new negotiation than grant endless extensions. As someone just said it’s more than likely they’re pissed off and want something anything from the uk right now.
But I can see them going for a redo rather than granting more extensions. And will maybe insist on a second referendum as a price on furhther extension so as to break this endless deadlock

Apart from instructing them to have a second referendum (which I think the EU wouldn't do, for the optics alone) what are you suggesting would be different in a second round of negotiations? Different PM, ok but in terms of what's on the table?

And why would they offer a new PM something they refused to give May?

Spanish Eyes · 09-06-2019 02:56PM

If important Red Lines melt away under a new PM, the EU might just be in the mood for a bit more negotiation. But I can't see that happening, just thinking out loud.

trellheim · 09-06-2019 03:14PM

OK so what I currently reckon will happen is = this is what I think the UK are thinking - no-deal and Ireland will then beg the EU for any deal at all, this gets uk out of the backstop and then its party time

Zubeneschamali · 09-06-2019 03:18PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Well the new pm is not going to rattle in with mays:eus deal. They just won’t.
So are we left with a no deal situation?

Nah - revoking A50.

CelticRambler · 09-06-2019 03:59PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I think the Eu would rather this roll on under a new negotiation than grant endless extensions. As someone just said it’s more than likely they’re pissed off and want something anything from the uk right now.
But I can see them going for a redo rather than granting more extensions. And will maybe insist on a second referendum as a price on furhther extension so as to break this endless deadlock

As far as the EU is concerned, there is no deadlock. From the EU's side of the table, it's very simple: "here's the deal we've already worked out - sign it, don't sign it, whatever." And in practice, other than a bit of grandstanding over whether or not to grant an extension, the EU has effectively written off the UK as a meaningful member.

BUT all the time the UK remains a member, the EU can continue to trade on favourable terms, EU-based suppliers to and/or purchasers from the UK can sign deals without being locked into long-term contracts, and everyone can pretend that the UK is or isn't an EU member to suit their own agenda.

There are almost no disadvantages now to granting another extension ... except for the British, who - of course - can't offer any outside investor or any third-country trade partner anything by way of guarantee because they won't make their minds up.

I think Halloween will see a re-run of March 29th: the EU will say that given the on-going instability in the UK and lack of consensus on any future relationship with the bloc, it will unconditionally extend Britain's membership for a period (probably two years-ish) unless and until the PM and government of the day specifically acts to leave or revoke Art.50.

We'll have lived with Scrhödinger's Britain for more than three years by then; it will become the new status quo until the Tory and Labour tribes are removed from Westminster and replaced with something resembling a more modern democracy.

Laois_Man · 09-06-2019 04:59PM

PeadarCo wrote: »

Over half the UKs trade is done with the EU or via trade deals the EU negotiated.

Its way more than half, surely!

Stop moaning ffs · 09-06-2019 05:27PM

volchitsa wrote: »

Apart from instructing them to have a second referendum (which I think the EU wouldn't do, for the optics alone) what are you suggesting would be different in a second round of negotiations? Different PM, ok but in terms of what's on the table?

And why would they offer a new PM something they refused to give May?

Thad kind of where I was going.
The only card uk has left to play is under a new pm. Revoke A50. Then give it loads of British bulldog waffle about going to Europe and getting a real deal for Britain. And triggering brexit again.

We know it’s nonsense. But it’s not outside the realms of possibility.

Nody · 09-06-2019 05:35PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Its way more than half, surely!

Top of my head it's 50% to EU and another 30ish percent on EU trade deals. The non trade deal is service focused as most trade deals don't cover services.

volchitsa · 09-06-2019 06:14PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Thad kind of where I was going.
The only card uk has left to play is under a new pm. Revoke A50. Then give it loads of British bulldog waffle about going to Europe and getting a real deal for Britain. And triggering brexit again.

We know it’s nonsense. But it’s not outside the realms of possibility.

But those are all things the British might (conceivably) do.

My question was what would all that change in terms of what the EU might be prepared to offer this time around that wasn't already on offer to TM - and why would they do that for a new PM when they haven't done so up to now?

In other words, why should anyone believe a candidate who promises that? Can there be many people who really think it's just because May did it wrong?

CrabRevolution · 09-06-2019 06:30PM

volchitsa wrote: »

But those are all things the British might (conceivably) do.

My question was what would all that change in terms of what the EU might be prepared to offer this time around that wasn't already on offer to TM - and why would they do that for a new PM when they haven't done so up to now?

In other words, why should anyone believe a candidate who promises that? Can there be many people who really think it's just because May did it wrong?

It's the cakeist mindset, which I've seen defined elsewhere as "the idea that the UK can have everything it wants merely because it wants it".

A lot of brexiters (including several front runners for the Tory leadership) honestly believe that by going to Brussels and slamming their fist on the table, they'll force 27 other countries to bow to the will of the UK.

Stop moaning ffs · 09-06-2019 06:57PM

CrabRevolution wrote: »

It's the cakeist mindset, which I've seen defined elsewhere as "the idea that the UK can have everything it wants merely because it wants it".

A lot of brexiters (including several front runners for the Tory leadership) honestly believe that by going to Brussels and slamming their fist on the table, they'll force 27 other countries to bow to the will of the UK.

To be clear I’m not a brexiteer I think it’s an act of suicide.
I was just trying to explore all remaining options available. Such as they are. Which is to say few.

trellheim · 09-06-2019 07:21PM

The only possible causes of action I can see is

1) Exit no-deal and then try and renegotiate . This is currently what will happen given no other action.
2) Revoke A50
3) Extend A50 again ( most likely option but depends on what gets elected to PM ) .

David Davis, Dom Raab, Olly Robbins, Nick Timothy, Ivan Rogers have all now been sacrificed on the altar and there's nothing to show ( except of course a fantastically good deal in the WA that they have a hump over the backstop but anyway ).

So if any one tries 1-3 above, what cards do they have worth showing or even who knows enough about the space to even try and negotiate
? Bullying Ireland with no-deal threat is it as far as I can see

Water John · 09-06-2019 08:14PM

A number of key players on the EU are retiring, Tusk, Juncker and Merkel later.
Don't know what the new players will be like and will they carry as much influence or does it swing more Macron's way.
Things might not be so easy for the UK. Tusk esp went the extra yard.

Spanish Eyes · 09-06-2019 08:36PM

Rory Stewart could be the one to watch.

I don't know how reliable this site is, but they say he is neck and neck with Boris J.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/104437/rory-stewart-and-boris-johnson-joint-top

The lead runner rarely wins, so could Rory sneak in! I kind of like him TBH. And he took Opium in the dens back in the day. Far more upmarket than cocaine and Weed ha.

Headshot · 09-06-2019 08:41PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Rory Stewart could be the one to watch.

I don't know how reliable this site is, but they say he is neck and neck with Boris J.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/104437/rory-stewart-and-boris-johnson-joint-top

The lead runner rarely wins, so could Rory sneak in! I kind of like him TBH. And he took Opium in the dens back in the day. Far more upmarket than cocaine and Weed ha.

He's the best of the bad bunch but if he and Boris are the 2 final candidates at t the end it's a certain win for Boris as the Conservative members love Boris (god knows why)

Spanish Eyes · 09-06-2019 08:56PM

Headshot wrote: »

He's the best of the bad bunch but if he and Boris are the 2 final candidates at t the end it's a certain win for Boris as the Conservative members love Boris (god knows why)

Yes I know, sadly.

A new person outside the usual candidates would be good. But as you say, the Tory membership are very stuck in their ways.

I suppose Boris represents the elite Eton heads or something other than a rep from a council estate. Not that Rory Stewart is either, it's just a mindset I think.

They are doomed with Boris, but hey 140k Tory membership can decide the fate of the UK. Mad.

54and56 · 09-06-2019 10:11PM

Headshot wrote: »

He's the best of the bad bunch but if he and Boris are the 2 final candidates at t the end it's a certain win for Boris as the Conservative members love Boris (god knows why)

Sky News running with Amber Rudd throwing her weight behind Jeremy Hunt.

That could scupper any hope Rory Stewart had as many in her One Nation group will follow her.

Enzokk · 09-06-2019 10:17PM

volchitsa wrote: »

Apart from instructing them to have a second referendum (which I think the EU wouldn't do, for the optics alone) what are you suggesting would be different in a second round of negotiations? Different PM, ok but in terms of what's on the table?

And why would they offer a new PM something they refused to give May?

Also, what else could the EU change in the current deal? Let's say the new PM says that his intention is to change the political declaration to a relationship more like Norway where they will be in a customs union and the single market as well, it doesn't change the need for the WA at all. We will still want a legal document that whatever the deal negotiated after they leave will safeguard the border and that citizens rights are guaranteed and that the UK pays their obligations. So nothing will change even if the PM comes with something new as the current deal is what will still be offered.

The only difference is a PM will have no problem with the backstop if they are open to a Norway type deal so getting it through should not be an issue. So whoever is the new PM, and I discount the like of Sam Gyimah as I don't think he has a chance, will still find the WA as an obstacle that will not change whatever they offer to the EU.

An Ciarraioch · 09-06-2019 10:39PM

Johnson opting for the "magic money tree" economic policy:

http://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1137821375606022144

Spanish Eyes · 09-06-2019 10:45PM

54&56 wrote: »

Sky News running with Amber Rudd throwing her weight behind Jeremy Hunt.

That could scupper any hope Rory Stewart had as many in her One Nation group will follow her.

I hope that won't happen. But who knows.

Our fate here in Ireland is dependent on a bunch of numpties in the UK who don't know what the heck they want. Bizarre, well to me anyway.

Rjd2 · 09-06-2019 10:52PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Rory Stewart could be the one to watch.

I don't know how reliable this site is, but they say he is neck and neck with Boris J.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/104437/rory-stewart-and-boris-johnson-joint-top

The lead runner rarely wins, so could Rory sneak in! I kind of like him TBH. And he took Opium in the dens back in the day. Far more upmarket than cocaine and Weed ha.

Rory has approximately 0.0000001% chance of winning. He may be the most sane, but hes the type of politician the tories members who vote on this loath.

Its going to be Hunt v Boris unless something absurd happens.

Capt'n Midnight · 09-06-2019 10:55PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Johnson opting for the "magic money tree" economic policy:

twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1137821375606022144

Grove wants to get rid* of VAT

*ie redefine it , as in "replace VAT with a lower, simpler, sales tax," which won't be any of those things

dogbert27 · 09-06-2019 11:13PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Johnson opting for the "magic money tree" economic policy:

http://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1137821375606022144

So his plan is to spend the armageddon money before armageddon begins?

What could possibly go wrong with the UK economy after a No Deal exit? :rolleyes:

The longer the UK mess around internally the more time the EU have to be ready for a No Deal Brexit.

Peregrinus · 10-06-2019 03:15AM

trellheim wrote: »

The only possible causes of action I can see is

1) Exit no-deal and then try and renegotiate . This is currently what will happen given no other action.
2) Revoke A50
3) Extend A50 again ( most likely option but depends on what gets elected to PM )...

Option 3 crucially depends on the EU being willing to give a further exension, which can't be taken for granted.

Both from certain quarters in Brussels, and from a couple of member states, there have been voices all saying some variation on the same thing: "We would consider a further extension to facilitate a general election, a second referndum or a similar game-changing event, or to facilitate the passage of legislation needed to implement the WA, if the UK has accepted it. But we would not consider an extension for any attempt to renegotiate the WA."

There's a growing view that at the June summit, when the EU is to review the progress of the current extension, the EU should formally make a decision to this effect, so that when the new Tory leader is identified, his or her opportunity to continue playing games is limited. Plus, the sooner and more definitely the EU says this, the sooner anti-no-deal groups in parliament are likely to move to try to prevent no deal. There's a real possibility that, despite there being a majority in the Commons against no deal, they will fail to move early enough to be effective in preventing one. They will feel they have to give the new PM a chance to try whatever cakeist scheme he promised in order to get chosen and, if he faffs about for long enough with that, it will be too late to prevent a crash-out.

robinph · 10-06-2019 08:52AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

They are doomed with Boris, but hey 140k Tory membership can decide the fate of the UK. Mad.

The DUP could always withdraw support.

What are the chances of Boris saying he'll dump NI in order to get rid of the backstop problem before the final vote? Then the DUP walk away and Boris gets the top job in the party, but instantly loses the PM role.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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