June 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

I am going to assume the Cork warmer numbers are correct and change the Dublin numbers of any entries that fail to add up to 30.

See the original post for details on tied days.

Here's the final version for NormaL and myself ...

NormaL __________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 12-18

MT Cranium _______ 13.4 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 115 _ 090 __ 10-20

(edit your posts if possible rather than posting again, if you want Cork-Dublin other than your forecast for Cork + Dublin = 30).

I guess that could have been worded a bit more clearly, but it seems that most entrants have at least approximated the right framework, can't say that rameire has an answer that I can easily convert to a score though (it's currently 14.20) so I will send a message there. The others that need a bit of fixing are either adding up to 31 or 29.

Yes I think you are the only one with a higher number for Cork, Rameire edited his to 14-16 which is probably second highest at a glance (tied with tae laidir).

Anyone who wants to edit theirs has until end of today, then a table of forecasts will appear. There are only three with minor problems now, one adds up to 29, another to 31 and a third to 32. Will be taking their Cork scores as legit and adjusting Dublin if they don't make a different edit.

(edit, Artane2002 changed his earlier post and went one higher for Cork at 17-13, so now there's two predictions in favour of Cork.)

Table of forecasts for June 2019


FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (Cork vs Dublin)


adam240610 _________ 14.8 _ 27.4 _ 2.2 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 13-17

Kindred Spirit __ (-8) __ 14.7 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 075 _ 140 ____ 8-22

MrSkinner ___________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 2.3 _ 093 _ 103 ____ 9-21

Tae laidir ____________ 14.2 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 128 _ 095 ___ 14-16

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) __ 14.2 _ 27.1 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 10-20

DOCARCH ___________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.3 _ 093 _ 110 ___ 10-20

rikand _______________14.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 12-18

Joe Public ____________ 13.9 _ 27.7 _ 1.6 _ 120 _ 089 ____ 9-21

Dacogawa ____________13.8 _ 29.1 _ 0.7 _ 140 _ 092 ___ 12-18

Rameire _____________ 13.8 _ 23.8 _ 2.5 _ 099 _ 124 ___ 14-16

waterways ___________ 13.7 _ 28.2 _ 1.2 _ 123 _ 103 ___ 10-20

200motels ___________ 13.7 _ 26.8 _ 2.7 _ 073 _ 088 ___ 13-17*


____ NormaL _________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12-18


john mac ____________ 13.5 _ 28.7 _ 1.2 _ 102 _109 ___ 11-19


____ Con Sensus ______13.5 _ 26.6 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 12-18


Bsal ________________ 13.5 _ 26.6 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 13-17

MT Cranium __________ 13.4 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 10-20

Artane2002 __________ 13.4 _ 26.1 _ 1.2 _ 110 _ 087 ___ 17-13

sryanbruen ___________13.3 _ 24.7 _ 0.8 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 13-17

Sunflower3 ___________13.2 _ 24.5 _ 2.2 _ 130 _ 082 ___ 10-20

JCXBXC _____(-2) _____13.0 _ 26.7 _ 2.4 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14-16*

Dasa29 _____ (-3) ____ 13.0 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 16-14

Pauldry ______________13.0 _ 25.1 _ 2.9 _ 125 _ 093 ___ 12-18

Gonzo _______________12.9 _ 23.4 _ 0.5 _ 129 _ 082 ___ 13-17

Jpmarn ______________12.8 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 140 _ 085 ___ 10-20

mickger844posts ______ 12.7 _ 23.9 _ 1.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 10-20

YanSno _____ (-2) _____11.2 _ 25.0 _ 2.5 _ 130 _ 092 ___ 10-20
_______________________________________________________________

* Cork vs Dublin entries must add to 30, as stated in the thread, any that do not add to 30 are adjusted on assumption that Cork is as intended.

25 forecasts (and NormaL), con sensus (median) takes 13th ranked forecast.

For the bonus question, the count of forecasts was as follows. Your score will be 10 if you're right and one less for each day wrong (for one location, not adding the errors). Con Sensus and NormaL score the same way. If the result gives a lopsided scoring result a fair system will be devised instead.

Cork vs Dublin __ frequency of forecast result

8 - 22 _________ 1
9 - 21 _________ 2
10 -20 _________ 8
11 -19 _________ 1
12 -18 _________ 3 (and NormaL)
13 -17 _________ 5
14 -16 _________ 3
15 -15 _________ 0
16 -14 _________ 1
17 -13 _________ 1

... so, while 10-20 is the most popular forecast, 12-18 is the consensus by median of all forecasts.

... two chose a majority of wins for Cork (it had been one, but Artane2002 in editing his first pick due to the 30 total situation went with a Cork majority)

_____________________________

The general consensus for the month appears to be near normal in temperatures, some bursts of heat, and more rain and cloud than normal, which is certainly how the first week is looking.

Good luck to all.

All scoring now declared final over in the May thread. This month is looking quite dire so far.

Thanks for the contest tracking, much appreciated.

Here's the first week update ...

IMT on 11.3 which is 1.6 below normal for the period.

MAX has not been in contention yet (I hope) and MIN appears to be the 2.0 reported above at Dublin.

PRC was 231% of normal, Ballyhaise was wettest at 413% and Valentia just 103% of normal. (JC also fairly close to average at 135%). This amount of rain guarantees an outcome above 55% anyway, so by end of this weekend we will probably have seen more rain in the month than all of May.

SUN has managed 84% (502/600) despite all the rain.

Bonus 3 for Cork and 4 for Dublin, so far. Today looks like Dublin might add another (has been to 16 on hourlies, Cork only to 15).