Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler · 22-05-2019 07:13PM

Word on the web is that TM won't step down today because it's the eve of the UK EP election. Surely the consequence of that is that agitated Tory voters will inevitably vote UKIP/BP out of frustration. No-one is going to vote for the Tories tomorrow because she's still in No.10.

So she's effectively hammering nail after nail into the Tory coffin when should could stop the rot simply by announcing her immediate departure. Hardly the behaviour of someone who cares deeply about the Party, which has always been presented as her core belief.

Nody · 22-05-2019 07:25PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Word on the web is that TM won't step down today because it's the eve of the UK EP election. Surely the consequence of that is that agitated Tory voters will inevitably vote UKIP/BP out of frustration. No-one is going to vote for the Tories tomorrow because she's still in No.10.

So she's effectively hammering nail after nail into the Tory coffin when should could stop the rot simply by announcing her immediate departure. Hardly the behaviour of someone who cares deeply about the Party, which has always been presented as her core belief.

The committee did not change the rules but TM is under preassure to drop the idea that the parliament could vote on a new Brexit vote or not by the Brexiteers... You could not make this farce up "in the name of democracy we insist that the sovereign parliament is not allowed to vote on something we don't like"

Harry Palmr · 22-05-2019 07:42PM

Andrea Leadsom resigns which is a big development as a potential party leader.

Itssoeasy · 22-05-2019 07:44PM

Andrea leadsom has quit the government. Could this be the start of the dominos falling. The leader of the house quiting isn't a good look honestly.

Enzokk · 22-05-2019 07:57PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Andrea leadsom has quit the government. Could this be the start of the dominos falling. The leader of the house quiting isn't a good look honestly.

It could be that Theresa May has tried to live up to her nickname this evening but she will be forced to return and make an appearance as her cabinet has resigned. This is the night before an election. I would be surprised if the Conservatives get 8% of the vote tomorrow.

Nody · 22-05-2019 08:01PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Andrea leadsom has quit the government. Could this be the start of the dominos falling. The leader of the house quiting isn't a good look honestly.

And it has zero impact for TM because she does not care about looks these days as long as she remains PM for that one additional day. Andrea is resigning in the preparation of a leadership bid that everyone hopes is coming sooner rather than later, nothing else.

CelticRambler · 22-05-2019 08:03PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The leader of the house quiting isn't a good look

Is there anything about British politics these days that's "a good look" ?

Loafing Oaf · 22-05-2019 08:05PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I have thought and predicted this a few times but it looks like it is the end for May tonight. That will mean she will be there for another few weeks.

Assuming this happens, is there new permanent leader in place at the end of those 'few weeks', or does a caretaker step in while the leadership election process carries on over the summer?

charlie14 · 22-05-2019 08:15PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Andrea Leadsom resigns which is a big development as a potential party leader.

If she is elected party leader it will not be because of her powers of prediction.

She believed Britain would be out of the EU by Christmas 2018.
Britain would have a trade deal with the EU.
Britain would simply roll over existing EU trade deals with other countries. Britain would have its own trade deals with China, India etc that would create 300,000 jobs day one.

c_murph · 22-05-2019 08:22PM

Enzokk wrote: »

It could be that Theresa May has tried to live up to her nickname this evening but she will be forced to return and make an appearance as her cabinet has resigned. This is the night before an election. I would be surprised if the Conservatives get 8% of the vote tomorrow.

I think the counting is on Sunday and Monday. My guess now is she won’t survive the result, but may last the weekend.

Leadsom resigning on the eve of an election is beyond stupid. How does she think that would look to members and MPs in the impending leadership race - she just squandered all trust in her ability to put party and country above personal ambition.

Enzokk · 22-05-2019 08:24PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Assuming this happens, is there new permanent leader in place at the end of those 'few weeks', or does a caretaker step in while the leadership election process carries on over the summer?

I believe that David Lidington will take over until a new leader is elected by the Conservative Party members (the 120 000 or so, depending on how many kick the bucket in the mean time) as he is recognized as her deputy PM. I believe he was also our contact point during the negotiations if one of the cabinet (Johnson, Gove or Raab or any other Brexiter) came out with a statement that contradicted what was being said during the negotiations.

Inquitus · 22-05-2019 08:28PM

British Politics - Next Conservative Leader

Boris Johnson 7/4
Dominic Raab 5/1
Jeremy Hunt 11/1
Michael Gove 12/1
Penny Mordaunt 20/1
Andrea Leadsom 20/1
Sajid Javid 20/1
Rory Stewart 25/1
Matthew Hancock 25/1
David Lidington 33/1
Priti Patel 50/1

Only way its not Boris is if he doesn't make it into the final 2 on the Parliamentary Party vote it seems, there does seem some hope he may not make the final 2 as he is soo unpopular with his colleagues. Rory Stewart has no hope, but he actually comes across on TV much better than the rest of this shower.

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-05-2019 08:31PM

Next 'PM' market:

Capt'n Midnight · 22-05-2019 08:40PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Only way its not Boris is if he doesn't make it into the final 2 on the Parliamentary Party vote it seems, there does seem some hope he may not make the final 2 as he is soo unpopular with his colleagues. Rory Stewart has no hope, but he actually comes across on TV much better than the rest of this shower.

I'd like it to be Rory but not a chance.

Boris got back stabbed by Grove last time out. There's a lot of ground to cover and the House of Commons canteen will be short of cutlery for some time.

Capt'n Midnight · 22-05-2019 08:43PM

In other news the UK's Soft Power isn't standing up well.

The UN has passed a resolution demanding the UK return control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

In the non-binding vote in the General Assembly in New York, 116 states were in favour and only six against, a major diplomatic blow to the UK.

Fifty-six states, including France and Germany, abstained.

Inquitus · 22-05-2019 08:47PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

In other news the UK's Soft Power isn't standing up well. Even the US voted against them.

The US voted with the UK, as the Diego Garcia US Airbase is on one of the Islands.

Only six countries, including Britain and the United States, voted against the measure while 56 others abstained, including Canada, France and Germany.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/britain-loses-vote-chagos-islands-190522160820797.html

The 116-6 vote left the UK diplomatically isolated and was also a measure of severely diminished US clout on the world stage. Washington had campaigned vigorously at the UN and directly in talks with national capitals around the world in defence of the UK’s continued control of the archipelago, where there is a US military base at Diego Garcia.

The US, Hungary, Israel, Australia and the Maldives backed the UK in the vote and 56 countries abstained, including France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Poland and Romania. Other European allies including Austria, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland voted for the UK to relinquish sovereignty.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/22/uk-suffers-crushing-defeat-un-vote-chagos-islands

Capt'n Midnight · 22-05-2019 08:52PM

Resignation letter and comments
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1131267480742236160

“Breakdown in collective responsibility” is an odd reason to cite when you’re quitting the government a night before an election.
...

Someone further down noticed she signed in Farage Party colours

This comment could equally apply to Boris or Corbyn too or

"It is with a heavy heart that I have decided to resign so I can continue to change my tune to whatever's the song of the day and flip-flop into whichever position best gives me a shot at becoming prime minister."

Capt'n Midnight · 22-05-2019 08:58PM

Inquitus wrote: »

The US voted with the UK, as the Diego Garcia US Airbase is on one of the Islands.

Oops my bad. Misread the quote.

It's been eventful news wise. This is one take on the direction the UK is heading any anti-establishment part will pick up easy votes as Farage knows, just need a scapegoat.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48354692

The UK's social safety net has been "deliberately removed and replaced with a harsh and uncaring ethos", a report commissioned by the UN has said.

Special rapporteur on extreme poverty Philip Alston said "ideological" cuts to public services since 2010 have led to "tragic consequences".

...
"The bottom line is that much of the glue that has held British society together since the Second World War has been deliberately removed and replaced with a harsh and uncaring ethos."

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-05-2019 09:14PM

UK Politics appears to have gone much loco:
Brexit Party set to make European elections HISTORY - largest share of UK vote in 25 YEARS*

*37 percent in the latest YouGov poll for The Times of 3,864 British adults from May 19-21

The also have a slight advantage on the polling forms via the use of semiotics (a large arrow pointing to their box),
as logo/iconography go it's fairly clever.

marno21 · 22-05-2019 09:22PM

Sarah Full Muck wrote: »

UK Politics appears to have gone much loco:
Brexit Party set to make European elections HISTORY - largest share of UK vote in 25 YEARS*

*37 percent in the latest YouGov poll for The Times of 3,864 British adults from May 19-21

The also have a slight advantage on the polling forms via the use of semiotics (a large arrow pointing to their box),
as logo/iconography go it's fairly clever.

Not surprising. Farage is direct and to the point and those who support him know what he's all about.

A world away from Labour whose core policy position seems to be sitting on the fence and talking in riddles.

theballz · 22-05-2019 09:32PM

marno21 wrote: »

Not surprising. Farage is direct and to the point and those who support him know what he's all about.

A world away from Labour whose core policy position seems to be sitting on the fence and talking in riddles.

I wouldn't be too sure of that. Never trust someone promising that complicated is simple. Chances are they are working towards a goal his supporters can't see.

Farage is a liar. It was like when he said a remain would mean the British steel industry would collapse and lose 5,000 jobs. The companies underperforming because of the possibility of a no deal Brexit, which Farage now claims was always his preferred option, which could mean that EU buyers will have to pay a tariff of 20% and the weak pound - which was caused by Brexit. Even the problems over its carbon credits, which, so far, have seen the government agree to a £120 million loan to try to solve, is down to the possibility of a no deal Brexit. With no Brexit, there's no reason for EU buyers to hold off on buying steel from them, no weakened pound, and they would still have full access to EU carbon credits scheme.

Faugheen · 22-05-2019 09:41PM

Surely if Farage and co represent the Brexit that people voted for than anything less than 52% is a failure?

marno21 · 22-05-2019 09:41PM

theballz wrote: »

I wouldn't be too sure of that. Never trust someone promising that complicated is simple. Chances are they are working towards a goal his supporters can't see.

Farage is a liar. It was like when he said a remain would mean the British steel industry would collapse and lose 5,000 jobs. The companies underperforming because of the possibility of a no deal Brexit, which Farage now claims was always his preferred option, which could mean that EU buyers will have to pay a tariff of 20% and the weak pound - which was caused by Brexit. Even the problems over its carbon credits, which, so far, have seen the government agree to a £120 million loan to try to solve, is down to the possibility of a no deal Brexit. With no Brexit, there's no reason for EU buyers to hold off on buying steel from them, no weakened pound, and they would still have full access to EU carbon credits scheme.

Oh I know full well his policies are ultimately baseless, but he is effective at communicating them and using soundbites to get his Brexit agenda across.

If Labour would actually pick a position here (you'd imagine for their own sakes it would be Remain), they could connect with a segment of the electorate and perhaps drive on. Instead you have Labour leadership seeking something different to Labour membership and a stew of incoherent policy positions that ultimately renders them unable to seek out their own target market.

WomanSkirtFan8 · 22-05-2019 09:53PM

Thargor wrote: »

Why is Raab #2 behind Boris? He's a complete cretin, even the rightwing press was taking the p1ss out of him by the end.

It will be good to see a full Brexiteer in the driving seat at long last, nowhere for them to hide then and forced to answer questions after so long of Mays "I have been clear..." non-answers. Raab cant open his mouth without making an ass of himself.

not only that but they'd be faced with all of the same problems that May's been trying to solve (the WA, the Backstop, etc.) :rolleyes:

Sam Russell · 22-05-2019 09:56PM

Thargor wrote: »

Why is Raab #2 behind Boris? He's a complete cretin, even the rightwing press was taking the p1ss out of him by the end.

It will be good to see a full Brexiteer in the driving seat at long last, nowhere for them to hide then and forced to answer questions after so long of Mays "I have been clear..." non-answers. Raab cant open his mouth without making an ass of himself.

Is that the same Raab that did not realise Dover was close to Calais? Or the one that admitted to not reading the Good Friday Agreement when being questioned about the Backstop and why it would impact on the GFA - all 38 pages of it?

Yes, a complete ass.

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-05-2019 10:00PM

Faugheen wrote: »

Surely if Farage and co represent the Brexit that people voted for than anything less than 52% is a failure?

Again, It's not a boolean Y/N or 2-way market.

There are many multiple complex choices available, some people will always vote green to save the trees/whales/dolphins. The Liberals and Indies are all making gains too.

As it stands forecasts are for NF via the TBP to have the biggest result in 25yrs in the UK-EE. But not good enough for you 'cos it's ain't' 51.9123456789+%?

54and56 · 22-05-2019 10:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The EEC was a far looser confederation than the current EU as it's main aim was free trade between members & common agricultural policies.
Harmonisation of products & services to simplify trade was also a major aim, one which met with resistance in the UK and to a lesser degree in Ireland (people still use pounds and ounces instead of grams for starters)
The EU is seen as having become too powerful in the eyes of many European sceptics.

I'm 50 years of age and the only people I know that still use pounds and ounces are drawing their pensions. My adult children don't even know what pounds and ounces are!!! Same goes for Miles Vs Kilometres.

Enzokk · 22-05-2019 10:06PM

marno21 wrote: »

Oh I know full well his policies are ultimately baseless, but he is effective at communicating them and using soundbites to get his Brexit agenda across.

I think what he has done well is make his soundbites and clips seem like policies when they are nowhere near complex enough for that purpose.

As for May, it seems like she will not last too long if this tweet is to be believed.

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1131300234703843336

There has been a vote to change the rules so that she can face a challenge again through the 1922 Committee, but they will only open it to see the results if she hasn't resigned by the morning. I think they are underestimating her, she is not for turning I believe.

A Dub in Glasgo · 22-05-2019 10:07PM

Faugheen wrote: »

Surely if Farage and co represent the Brexit that people voted for than anything less than 52% is a failure?

That is unlikely to be put to the likes of Farage by any of the media in the UK

Thargor · 22-05-2019 10:08PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Is that the same Raab that did not realise Dover was close to Calais? Or the one that admitted to not reading the Good Friday Agreement when being questioned about the Backstop and why it would impact on the GFA - all 38 pages of it?

Yes, a complete ass.

Yeah and he goes red and sweats like mad when you point a camera at him aswell.

Boris or Raab in a disorderly Brexit situation will be something to see, or Boris or Raab crawling to the EU begging for another extension, or Boris or Raab overseeing a 50%+ collapse in Tory support, serious entertainment whatever happens.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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