Silence of the Wolves - A Game of Werewolf GAME THREAD

Baggly · 10-05-2019 10:55am

quickbeam wrote:

I'm all for going for the low posters. Am surprised you got out of my posts that I was against this. I only said let's start with those who cast a vote and leave the ones who didn't to the mods.

I didn't say that. I'm saying you are leading the plan in a direction away from 2 players.

quickbeam · 10-05-2019 10:58am

Pter wrote: »

I didn't say that. I'm saying you are leading the plan in a direction away from 2 players.

To be clear ... yes, I am. For the moment I think Lough and Succy are not worth looking at. If we go down the low posters route it's Cross and Digi that should be priority.

Digital Solitude · 10-05-2019 10:58am

Pter wrote: »

'tis.

Give us your impressions so far Digi.

Village lean
Tusk
Skunk
Keith
QB
Pter
Barney

Neutral read elsewhere, will expand these when I have a chance to think about the game

quickbeam wrote: »

Why did you vote Barney in the lynch?

First name in the list

tusk · 10-05-2019 10:59am

quickbeam wrote: »

To be clear ... yes, I am. For the moment I think Lough and Succy are not worth looking at. If we go down the low posters route it's Cross and Digi that should be priority.

Can you elaborate on why that's the case?

Barney92 · 10-05-2019 11:00am

Digital Solitude wrote: »

First name in the list

Called it

tusk · 10-05-2019 11:01am

tusk wrote: »

My current thoughts, having not read back.

Next game I will definitely keep notes from the get go.

#FFA2
Placeholder vote for Skunk
Kolido
Ecto

Barney92 - calling out different tactics, posts are helpful. slight village lean.

Bounty Hunter - posts seem helpful to the village, slight village lean.

Clarabel - Slight villager, need to review.

crosstownk - Who?

Digital Solitude - Who?

Dublinandy2 - Smack bam in the middle. Villagery I thought, but his unfounded defence of Skunk, who I have a heavy suspicion of makes me feel wolf vibes.

Duffman13 - no read atm.

Ectoplasm - Dodgy vibes from Ecto at some point which I don't feel have been resolve from their posts. Wolf suspicion. Need to redback to be certain.

fixxxer - Need a read back - Slight village lean.

Green&Red - Lot's to think about - need a readback. slight village lean.

kitten_k - DED

Kolido - had an initial suspicion of kolido, can't remember why, but he has not done anything yet to allay my fears. wolf suspicion.

Loughc - no posts? no read

Pter - Need to go back and read through his posts, but for now, slight village lean.

quickbeam - Voted with me for skunk, also has a suspicion of Kolido like me. Post very reasonable and information shared seems geniune. Strong village lean.

sKeith - Dodgy start, but calling out a lot of people. Starting conversations and keeping the information flowing - village lean

Strawberry Milkshake - Helpful, offered to die early instead of newbs. FFA publishing advocate. Village lean

Succubus_ minimal posts, no real read.

TheSkunk - Dodgy feeling at the start, so put in placeholder vote. called out by trit which I and whippy agreed with. Whippy goes byebye. This hightens my suspicion. Defends self quite well, reduces my suspicion to a point where I'm happy to move my vote, but it's too late so my vote sticks. Trit gets the munch, which reawakens my suspicion. Suspicion is still high. Has me down as villager lean (potential pocket attempt knowing I'm probably their biggest challenger?) Placeholder vote currently on Skunk

Triceratops Ballet - Need a read back, but currently feeling, slight villager lean.

tritium - DED

tusk - Villager

Whiplashy - DED

Ammending to include Digi as a village lean, as they are village leaning a few of my village leans...

quickbeam · 10-05-2019 11:02am

tusk wrote: »

Can you elaborate on why that's the case?

Because if you vote in a lynch you're not likely to be modkilled as you're still playing along.

If you're not voting, or posting, you're likely to be be modkilled. And my stats (see above) show that we're better off losing villagers to modkills than to lynch.

Digital Solitude · 10-05-2019 11:03am

tusk wrote: »

Can you elaborate on why that's the case?

I was ready to disagree but I'm always a fan of going with the numbers, strawbs breaks it down here

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Mod kills will reduce the number of munches. If we lynched one by one we have to account for 4 munches too (possibility of 8 NRV gone)

If we lynched one of those who voted and the other 2 were modkilled then lynched the other there would be 2 munches to account for (possibility of 6 NRV gone)

If we lynch one of those we hope would be modkilled, mods kill the other, munch, lynch, munch, lynch, munch (7 possible NRV)

Best numbers come from mods taking the 2 out for us.

quickbeam · 10-05-2019 11:05am

Oh yeah, Strawbs gets all the credit for breaking it down

tusk · 10-05-2019 11:07am

Digital Solitude wrote: »

I was ready to disagree but I'm always a fan of going with the numbers, strawbs breaks it down here

You know what, I read all of these posts a couple of times and couldn't get it, but now it makes sense!

My thinking was it's better to get a lynch in before a mod kill, because they're going to die anyway, so we'd have more potential villagers left....

My brain hurts. I think I'll take a break for a while

10-05-2019 11:09am

Pter wrote: »

It could be but its not.

Equally not going into the low posters could be a tactic by one of QB or Strawbs to save a wolf buddy.

I haven’t said not to do it at all. I’ve shown the numbers for all 3 scenarios but what else can we say about it right now? Those 4 players have no posts to analyse so it’s literaly a choice of lynching voter or non voter and then tossing a coin as to who gets lynched.

Pter, would take 2 mins to put a step by step of your idea but you said you didn’t have time. But you’re still here.

Meanwhile, active wolf or wolfs are sitting back letting us go round in circles. Get the options out there, agree to return to it later this evening and spend the day looking into who we do have info on!

Green&Red · 10-05-2019 11:10am

quickbeam wrote: »

So, my scenario above:
Currently 17V / 3W
Mislynch 1: 16V / 3W
Munch: 15V / 3W
Mislynch 2: 14V / 3W
Munch: 13V / 3W
Mislynch 3: 12V / 3W
Munch: 11V / 3W
Mislynch 4: 10V / 3W
Munch 9V / 3W

But consider if the non voters are modkilled:
Currently 17V / 3W
Mislynch 1 + 2 modkills: 14V / 3W
Munch: 13V / 3W
Mislynch 2: 12V / 3W
.

The first scenario should read

Currently 17V / 3W
Mislynch 1: 16V / 3W
Mod Kill 1: 15V / 3W
Munch: 14V / 3W
Mislynch 2: 13V / 3W

I'm completely against going after the two Modkills, literally the only thing we learn from is the lynching, we are denying ourselves that info. What do we get in return? A whole load of waffle

I know its in favour of the wolves in numbers terms but its also in our favour in terms of real info

I have a new favourite for lynching, I'll do a full ISO once I get a chance

@Lady Skunk - you left me off your rundown of people

Dublinandy2 · 10-05-2019 11:10am

So how come eveyone is so trusting of Digi after a couple of posts yet not of others, am I missing something?

tusk · 10-05-2019 11:12am

Dublinandy2 wrote: »

So how come eveyone is so trusting of Digi after a couple of posts yet not of others, am I missing something?

I couldn't stay away... Don't judge me.

Fair point. He got me right in his pocket with that one post...

However I had zero read on him before, so nowhere near the top of my list rn.

sKeith · 10-05-2019 11:18am

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

We’re currently at 20 players 17 villagers vs 3 wolfs.

If those 4 returned as villagers via lynches plus 4 munches that would leave it at 9 vs 3

If 2 were mod killed it would reduce the munch ratio making 11 vs 3

You can't automatically assume succubus and loughc are villa?
They could be raging in the wolf den about their non active buddy.

so 11v3 or 12v2 or 13v1, however unlikely, are all possible.

quickbeam · 10-05-2019 11:20am

sKeith wrote: »

You can't automatically assume succubus and loughc are villa?
They could be raging in the wolf den about their non active buddy.

so 11v3 or 12v2 or 13v1, however unlikely, are all possible.

Strawbs and I are going worst case scenario. If they're wolves and mod-killed then all the better for us!!

10-05-2019 11:27am

Yep just seeing where we would stand in a worse case scenario. I honestly can’t see what’s left to discuss on this topic right now.

10-05-2019 11:32am

Just so we’re all clear on the rules this is from OP

The minimum requirement is that you log a vote each lynch. Two missed votes will result in a modkill, to which there are no exceptions.

Baggly · 10-05-2019 11:40am

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Pter, would take 2 mins to put a step by step of your idea but you said you didn’t have time. But you’re still here.

I was going into a meeting and could get off one quick response Strawbs. Take it handy. Both you and QB are being very aggressive in following this idea. Backing up what you think is fine but you wouldnt usually be this dismissive and suggest something needs to stop being discussed, if others wanted to discuss it.

Also highly hypocritical of you to in one post say why are we discussing this and in another post call me out on not explaining myself. You are behaving very strangely.

You and QB have outlined the numbers fine. I dont disagree with your numbers. However, your numbers just have us reach parity with the wolves quicker! Thats all. We need as many days as possible in this game, ie avoiding mislynches at all costs, until we have evidence to hang wolves.

That evidence will come from munch analysis, lynch analysis and post analysis. We might not get info from our pre-empted lynch, but we get an extra day to analyse everything else.

If mods kill 2 people, it effectively means we have reduced the numbers of lynches we have to do, but it doesnt change the number of munches the wolves will get (in fact it will reduce them by 2, but only because they will reach parity quicker, due to there being 2 fewer NRVs for them to have to kill).

Baggly · 10-05-2019 11:41am

I mean look at how much info we got out of lynch 1 and munch 1. For me it helped clear Dandy and, to a degree, sKeith.

Why would we not want as many days (lynch & munch) as possible to gather info! Most of us are going to die anyway, we might as well give info to those villagers who survive.

Green&Red · 10-05-2019 11:47am

@Petr - I feel the only true information we get is from Lynch votes. Munch analysis is subjective and can easily be manipulated by wolves.
Post analysis is also very subjective

sKeith · 10-05-2019 11:50am

Pter wrote: »

Thats a good point. I looked at post numbers and he was there. That is my mistake. Ill move it onto Succubus - they didnt vote, iirc.

This is suspicious as hell.

You're actively trying to lynch somebody who is likely a modkill candidate?

That's effectively the same as 'no lynch'.

Digi has arrived back, so the move to cross, i get.

voting loughc or succubus without waiting for the modkill is a waste of our lynch.

You also removed you vote from digi a bit prematurely for my liking.

Baggly · 10-05-2019 11:53am

Green&Red wrote: »

@Petr - I feel the only true information we get is from Lynch votes. Munch analysis is subjective and can easily be manipulated by wolves.
Post analysis is also very subjective

Lynch votes can be manipulated too, to a degree, but yes the other info is open to interpretation. Thats what this particular game is about though.

All we do leaving the modkills there is remove an opportunity or two for us to gather more info, whatever it may be.

sKeith wrote: »

This is suspicious as hell.

You're actively trying to lynch somebody who is likely a modkill candidate?

That's effectively the same as 'no lynch'.

Digi has arrived back, so the move to cross, i get.

voting loughc or succubus without waiting for the modkill is a waste of our lynch.

You also removed you vote from digi a bit prematurely for my liking.

We dont have NRVs to spare sKeith. if there was a no lynch option id say go for it. We need as many day phases as possible to find the wolves.

quickbeam · 10-05-2019 12:03pm

You’re sacrificing two villager for info Pter. The two villagers the wolves will munch while we’re lynching players who’ll be modkilled anyway. You talk about us not having the numbers of villagers to spare but you’re giving the wolves these two.

But look, it’s s democracy. I’m not gonna vote for potential modkills. You do if you think it’s right. The one lynched will be majority decision regardless. And mods will do what they need to do regardless.

Baggly · 10-05-2019 12:05pm

quickbeam wrote: »

You’re sacrificing two villager for info Pter. The two villagers the wolves will munch while we’re lynching players who’ll be modkilled anyway. You talk about us not having the numbers of villagers to spare but you’re giving the wolves these two.

But look, it’s s democracy. I’m not gonna vote for potential modkills. You do if you think it’s right. The one lynched will be majority decision regardless. And mods will do what they need to do regardless.

The wolves will still munch two players, the mods may kill two players, and we will lynch two players.

The only thing that changes is there are two fewer munches in the game, but that only happens because the end of the game comes sooner.

Baggly · 10-05-2019 12:06pm

Im sorry it wasnt my intention for this to become all consuming for the day. Ill leave it at that. Lynch is in 8 hours, so Strawbs is right that i shouldnt crusade on this all day.

10-05-2019 12:13pm

FWIW, I think your intentions are good even if I don’t agree with them. Modkilled or lynched we get the result so I don’t see it you being so vocal and drawing so much attention if you were a wolf.

The silence from others on this discussion is interesting.

Baggly · 10-05-2019 12:19pm

sKeith wrote: »

This is suspicious as hell.

You're actively trying to lynch somebody who is likely a modkill candidate?

That's effectively the same as 'no lynch'.

Digi has arrived back, so the move to cross, i get.

voting loughc or succubus without waiting for the modkill is a waste of our lynch.

You also removed you vote from digi a bit prematurely for my liking.

I dont want to kill any of them. I want them to post!!! Digi posted, so i moved off him. If he stops ill move back on him.

sKeith · 10-05-2019 12:20pm

Pter wrote: »

Lynch votes can be manipulated too, to a degree, but yes the other info is open to interpretation. Thats what this particular game is about though.

All we do leaving the modkills there is remove an opportunity or two for us to gather more info, whatever it may be.

We dont have NRVs to spare sKeith. if there was a no lynch option id say go for it. We need as many day phases as possible to find the wolves.

So, you want to give control of the game over to the wolves for two days.
Can't you see thats just nuts. Our top villagers will be munched.

Baggly · 10-05-2019 12:28pm

sKeith wrote:

So, you want to give control of the game over to the wolves for two days. Can't you see thats just nuts. Our top villagers will be munched.

Will that not happen anyway.

Silence of the Wolves - A Game of Werewolf GAME THREAD

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