Is there a "secret" recession happening?

lawred2 · 03-05-2019 10:00PM

LirW wrote: »

Okay, I'm being genuinely curious now, you're doing 6 figures, in theory this leaves you with around 6k a month net.
I understand crèche in Dublin is sore and I don't know where you live that your mortgage is crazy high but if my husband and I would be remotely in that sort of income we'd move back to Dublin straight away.
Are you sure there aren't car loans missing, health insurance and a few other nice things you like to include in your life since you're in the top 10% with your household income?
Not trying to p1ss you off there but for me it doesn't exactly add up, but I don't know your circumstances.

Mortgage plus creche is 3400 per month

Life insurance
Home insurance
Car insurance
LPT
Electricity and Gas
Taxsaver DART tickets
LIDL shops
Public hospital health insurance for wife and kids (is that a nice thing?)
One car loan
Few hundred quid savings

Doesn't be long adding up..

Those are monthly outgoings. That excludes the raft of annual stuff you have to plan for during the year... Like car tax, servicing, household maintenance etc

3 bed semi and a mortgage is for 350k... We're not lording it up here much as you seem to think.

Your tone is a bit off by the way.. since when was a car loan a nice thing? Car for a family of five a luxury? Or basic health insurance? That a luxury too.

Maybe the food we eat is a luxury.

LirW · 03-05-2019 10:18PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Mortgage plus creche is 3400 per month

Life insurance
Home insurance
Car insurance
LPT
Electricity and Gas
Taxsaver DART tickets
LIDL shops
Public hospital health insurance for wife and kids (is that a nice thing?)
One car loan
Few hundred quid savings

Doesn't be long adding up..

Those are monthly outgoings. That excludes the raft of annual stuff you have to plan for during the year... Like car tax, servicing, household maintenance etc

3 bed semi and a mortgage is for 350k... We're not lording it up here much as you seem to think.

Your tone is a bit off by the way.. since when was a car loan a nice thing? Car for a family of five a luxury? Or basic health insurance? That a luxury too.

Maybe the food we eat is a luxury.

See I didn't know how to word it better but I understand it a bit better now.
I feel for the childcare costs, they're horrible everywhere but the light at the end of the tunnel is they won't need it forever.

We don't have health insurance, money doesn't stretch to that. We only run one 12 year old car, I would be extremely uncomfortable committing to a car loan at the moment.
I wouldn't dream of having another child either because we couldn't afford it.

But honestly, as sh1t as living costs here are, it's barely any better elsewhere in Europe, all the major cities come with their downsides and as someone who moved from a relatively wealthy country to Ireland, I still feel the quality of life is so nice here.

flas · 03-05-2019 10:51PM

rgodard80a wrote: »

Sorry but if someone has debt in their 70s then they didn't plan their retirement properly at all and probably had no private pension expecting the state to pay for
everything after 65.

If you don't properly plan your life, have funds in place, a little savings for a rainy day etc, as a grown adult you have to take responsibility for your own actions.
It's a Nanny state at times, but not a Mammy or Daddy state.

You are talking through your hoop... Many many many people had private pensions wiped out in the last recession, while a lot were lucky and had mortgages paid off, some were not, and were nearing retirement, getting sick in old age and couldn't get another job, life savings and security wiped out, it can and does happen and you better hope it doesn't happen to you...

bodhrandude · 04-05-2019 12:23AM

Zorya wrote: »

Ugh. I'm guessing you presume that the sun will always shine for you. My Dad started working fulltime at 14 in the 50s. The 1980s recession wiped him out. He worked and worked thereafter, too hard, but died poor. Terribly sick and poor.
You have no compassion if you presume that the very best laid plans do not go awry, because they do, for many people.
I hate this quality of resenting people the pittance they might get off a pension or the social welfare net.
Do you not realise that everything you depend on now - your roads, your water, your infrastructure - was provided for you by someone else - your doctor's education was vastly subsidised, your food is cheap because of massive intervention and artificial trade mechanisms and the sweat and blood of subsistence labourers in countries and circumstances you could never survive. Ditto your furniture and technology and petrol.
You are wholly connected to and interdependent with other people some of whom live or have in the far past lived short desperate lives just so you can be so arrogant and cocksure now about people taking responsibility for themselves.

This: One of the finest put downs, fair play to you sir or madam.

Zorya · 04-05-2019 07:51AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

This: One of the finest put downs, fair play to you sir or madam.

I didn't mean to be quite as snarky as it may have come across. Or perhaps I did because the temper was up in me. I have strong opinions because of my childhood about workers, bosses, economic machinations, the castrated workers unions, corporatism, (barely) living to endlessly work, social welfare nets, unfair global trade, modern slavery, systems weighted against the ordinary man or woman, and the whole general and globally manipulated muddle that pretends to be an American/Irish/European/whatever ''dream''.

Gah, now see, the temper is back up in me!

Mad_maxx · 04-05-2019 08:15AM

flas wrote: »

You are talking through your hoop... Many many many people had private pensions wiped out in the last recession, while a lot were lucky and had mortgages paid off, some were not, and were nearing retirement, getting sick in old age and couldn't get another job, life savings and security wiped out, it can and does happen and you better hope it doesn't happen to you...

I'm afraid it's you who are "talking through your hoop" No one had their private pension wiped out, the problem is some people don't - didn't know what a pension was, owning shares in Irish banks isn't and wasn't a pension, it was a portfolio and one which wasn't diversified

Once you reach sixty, your plan should be all in bonds rather than equities, the 2008 crash would not have effected anyone with a properly managed pension

Mad_maxx · 04-05-2019 08:18AM

Ashleigh1986 wrote: »

There is the Dublin economy , and than the rest .
122 tower cranes in Dublin at the moment , 2 in galway .
Some restaurants in galway are feeling the vat increase , as in the drop in customers .
Bookings in galway for tours this year so far is behind last year .
I think with the elections coming up a somewhat of a positive is been portrayed around the country .
I think the elephant in the room ( brexit) is causing a lot of anxiety in people's spending .

Cork and Galway have both been booming since around 2014, Limerick is absolutely booming since around two years ago, granted it was on its arse for a long time

Blueshoe · 04-05-2019 08:30AM

If enough people just stop buying junk they don't really need and keep their money in their accounts then we can sink this kip again. It's that easy

Richard Hillman · 04-05-2019 08:48AM

The cost of living is skyrocketing. Income Taxes are being skimmed to a rate nowhere near matching the rise of the cost of living or wage increases, whilst stealth taxes and mandatory expenses are being introduced.

During last year's budget I was €3 better off per annum, whilst expenses like public transport were being increased. So for another year, I was worse off than the previous.

Now look to the future and propisals. Further increases on public transport, carbon tax, mandatory health insurance, mandatory pensions. That's all before things like rent increases, increase in food prices and Minimum priced alcohol. If we're screwed now, wait for the next few years. And of course everything will be put down to Brexit.

And that's before even mentioning that we are due an actual recession soon. Growth has been high and Spending power is decreasing. It is inevitable.

Bigus · 04-05-2019 08:52AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Mortgage plus creche is 3400 per month

Life insurance
Home insurance
Car insurance
LPTI
Electricity and Gas
Taxsaver DART tickets
LIDL shops
Public hospital health insurance for wife and kids (is that a nice thing?)
One car loan
Few hundred quid savings

Doesn't be long adding up..

Those are monthly outgoings. That excludes the raft of annual stuff you have to plan for during the year... Like car tax, servicing, household maintenance etc

3 bed semi and a mortgage is for 350k... We're not lording it up here much as you seem to think.

Your tone is a bit off by the way.. since when was a car loan a nice thing? Car for a family of five a luxury? Or basic health insurance? That a luxury too.

Maybe the food we eat is a luxury.

This is exactly what the op ....... is talking about.

However although the cre fees will indeed reduce in time ,I'm disappointed to inform you that they will quickly be replaced with core school expenses and extra curricular activities costs, etc, etc, and will plague you until the little darlings are at least 24 years of age, but you'd never give them up, no matter what the cost.

Yes, it's fair for you to say, that Ireland's a 5hitty country to live in because you can't have a few luxuries while earning over 100,000 k a year. But I gaurantee you If you look elsewhere worldwide, things are really similar or you'd worse off compared to living in Ireland in the EU.

So the only one in control is what we can change ourselves now, and it's up to each family unit to optimise there current circumstances, in the current climate.

As an elder lemon here I'd advise people to try and think outside the box, if you have big income, it's not good enough to be barely making ends meet, so in the case above I'd say ,while YOU have control, consider radical stuff like dump the car loan for a few years , and either go back to driving a banger or sell off the car altogether and lose the car loan,along with insurance tax and fuel bill and go GoCar for a year or 2,perhaps supplemented by electric bikes, as a softener. A radical change such as this might allow you Build up a bit of a savings buffer or pay down the mortgage quicker.
Yes you are fully entitled to expect to be able to afford a car and keep it on the road, but I'm just giving an example of how some large expenses can become normalised and seemingly out of our control when they are not.

Bigmac1euro · 04-05-2019 09:28AM

Blueshoe wrote: »

If enough people just stop buying junk they don't really need and keep their money in their accounts then we can sink this kip again. It's that easy

I loved the way you used “we can sink this kip again” generally burst out laughing here and can’t stop. The whole comment is so aggressive yet hilarious. But I agree with it too.

dxhound2005 · 04-05-2019 09:40AM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

The cost of living is skyrocketing.

What word would you use to describe inflation of 20%?

meeeeh · 04-05-2019 09:40AM

For us things are better than they were during the recession. Our sector was very badly hit during recession so that recovered a bit. We have a tracker mortgage which helps and kids are in school so childcare costs are lower. In the business we are looking for couple of different positions. Applications for apprenticeships and medium skilled technical office work seem to be comming in (more than expected) but it is next to impossible to fill up the skilled trades positions and wages went up so much that I'm worried our costs are getting out of hand.

I think it really depends where you live, what kind of mortgage/rent you are paying and what profession you work in. I think cost of accommodation, services and pressure on wages in certain areas is making us very vulnerable to any wobble from Brexit or global recession.

Blueshoe · 04-05-2019 09:57AM

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

I loved the way you used “we can sink this kip again” generally burst out laughing here and can’t stop. The whole comment is so aggressive yet hilarious. But I agree with it too.

I was only after waking up. I was groggy and easily outraged.

Yurt2 · 04-05-2019 10:05AM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

The cost of living is skyrocketing. Income Taxes are being skimmed to a rate nowhere near matching the rise of the cost of living or wage increases, whilst stealth taxes and mandatory expenses are being introduced.

During last year's budget I was €3 better off per annum, whilst expenses like public transport were being increased. So for another year, I was worse off than the previous.

Now look to the future and propisals. Further increases on public transport, carbon tax, mandatory health insurance, mandatory pensions. That's all before things like rent increases, increase in food prices and Minimum priced alcohol. If we're screwed now, wait for the next few years. And of course everything will be put down to Brexit.

And that's before even mentioning that we are due an actual recession soon. Growth has been high and Spending power is decreasing. It is inevitable.

I agree with you about almost everything except the pension auto-enrollment. This is a long-overdue measure and will save hundreds of thousands from poverty in their old age.

Edit: Unless the pensions industry pull an insurance industry on it and start jacking up fees and profiteering as a cartel due to it being a compulsory measure. Who am I kidding, this is Ireland, that's exactly what will happen.

Squall Leonhart · 04-05-2019 10:09AM

Yurt! wrote: »

I agree with you about almost everything except the pension auto-enrollment. This is a long-overdue measure and will save hundreds of thousands from poverty in their old age.

It's an auto enrollment system you can opt out of I think. Let's hope most people don't take the foolish short term view and opt out.

Though the pessimist in me says that if everybody is better off.... Then nobody is better off.

04-05-2019 10:17AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Both myself and the wife are professionals in Dublin. Six figure pre tax household income whittled away in tax.

Salary comes in. Mortgage and Creche fees go out and we're broke. Struggling to add a few hundred quid a month to our savings..

Rinse and repeat every month.

Letter this week to inform us creche fees to go up 5% for the second year in a row.

Nothing really tying us to Dublin. Would give serious thought to somewhere else if the numbers stacked up.

Having the ability to save anything is as far from broke as I can imagine.

Being broke is choosing which member of the family gets the shoes they all need that month. Which bill to put off.

Looks like a fair few people here haven't a clue as to what broke means.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-05-2019 10:37AM

Not being silly about it but get a better job OP?

The number of people who languish in the same role without even looking to move on would make for curious stats.

I know a few like that and they are the very ones that will complain.

Chips Lovell · 04-05-2019 11:39AM

If I was a two income family who could afford to pay a mortgage, run a car, cover all my overheads and save a few hundred quid a month I’d regard myself as reasonably well off. People need to get a bit of perspective on what normality is.

Squall Leonhart · 04-05-2019 11:53AM

Agreed. We've two incomes, no children. All bills are paid, mortgage paid, car loans, insurances, pensions, all paid. But there's no wiggle room for savings at the moment. It stresses me that there is nothing to fall back on, but at least we're meeting monthly expenses and debt levels are dropping each month.

lawred2 · 04-05-2019 01:01PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Having the ability to save anything is as far from broke as I can imagine.

Being broke is choosing which member of the family gets the shoes they all need that month. Which bill to put off.

Looks like a fair few people here haven't a clue as to what broke means.

What you're describing is poverty and while you have a point we're not living in poverty, it's nonetheless not far from struggling to break even. It's about two hundred quid into savings a month. Won't be long before that's no longer available to us.

lawred2 · 04-05-2019 01:07PM

Chips Lovell wrote: »

If I was a two income family who could afford to pay a mortgage, run a car, cover all my overheads and save a few hundred quid a month I’d regard myself as reasonably well off. People need to get a bit of perspective on what normality is.

Well off?

Living to pay bills with no comfort zone is not well off.

KikiLaRue · 04-05-2019 01:15PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Well off?

Living to pay bills with no comfort zone is not well off.

I think the point is that for many people the things you are describing (having savings, owning your own home, having a car, private health insurance) are indeed luxuries they can't afford. Lots of people have to make do without any of that.

You feel stretched because you have chosen a certain lifestyle. It's not extravagant by any means, but if it's not well off, it's also nowhere near badly off. Your childcare costs will drop over the next few years, while your incomes will likely increase.

You're in a pretty good position, and I can understand why people who are genuinely struggling find it hard to have sympathy.

lawred2 · 04-05-2019 01:32PM

KikiLaRue wrote: »

I think the point is that for many people the things you are describing (having savings, owning your own home, having a car, private health insurance) are indeed luxuries they can't afford. Lots of people have to make do without any of that.

You feel stretched because you have chosen a certain lifestyle. It's not extravagant by any means, but if it's not well off, it's also nowhere near badly off. Your childcare costs will drop over the next few years, while your incomes will likely increase.

You're in a pretty good position, and I can understand why people who are genuinely struggling find it hard to have sympathy.

Ah for f**k sake... Other people's sympathy means nothing to me so I certainly wasn't seeking it.

What was the other lifestyle that I could have chosen by the way?

No kids, no house, no car?

hatrickpatrick · 04-05-2019 01:35PM

Chips Lovell wrote: »

If I was a two income family who could afford to pay a mortgage, run a car, cover all my overheads and save a few hundred quid a month I’d regard myself as reasonably well off. People need to get a bit of perspective on what normality is.

That's the point though, normality has changed enormously in the last half-century and largely for the worse.

Patty Hearst · 04-05-2019 01:53PM

Chips Lovell wrote: »

If I was a two income family who could afford to pay a mortgage, run a car, cover all my overheads and save a few hundred quid a month I’d regard myself as reasonably well off. People need to get a bit of perspective on what normality is.

Normality used to be one parent working whilst being able to afford a mortgage, a car, three or more kids and be able to save a decent bit every month.

KikiLaRue · 04-05-2019 02:01PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Ah for f**k sake... Other people's sympathy means nothing to me so I certainly wasn't seeking it.

What was the other lifestyle that I could have chosen by the way?

No kids, no house, no car?

I presume you weren't forced into buying a 350k house? You probably could have knocked 100k off that for a less classy area, but you wanted to live somewhere nice. Garden for the kids, good local schools, plenty of amenities. No judgement on that, but it is absolutely a choice you made, and one that's not open to a lot of people.

Yes, having a car is a choice, and what type of car you have and how often you use it are also choices. How could it be framed as anything else? Plenty of families have to get by on public transport. The fact that this hasn't registered with you only shows how privileged you are by comparison.

And indeed, you could you have chosen not to have children, or to wait until you were in a more comfortable financial position to do so.

So yes, those were all choices you made to create the lifestyle you wanted. I don't personally see anything wrong with your decisions, but I think it's poor form to complain about your financial situation when despite all of the above, you're still saving.

meeeeh · 04-05-2019 02:08PM

KikiLaRue wrote: »

You're in a pretty good position, and I can understand why people who are genuinely struggling find it hard to have sympathy.

I actually get his point. With 6 figure wages you should be able to to live comfortably and not needing to budget to have couple of hundred quid in savings per month. Frankly private insurance is almost a necessity especially if you are not eligible for medical card. The financial pressure that's on parents with little kids is disproportionate in comparison to most oecd countries. Comparatively living costs in Ireland are high, especially in Dublin and just looking at someone's income doesn't paint the whole picture of how people. What was mentioned in the post was fairly basic stuff not a complaint that the can afford only one skiing and one summer holiday and couple of weekends away per year.

Squall Leonhart · 04-05-2019 02:10PM

Patty Hearst wrote: »

Normality used to be one parent working whilst being able to afford a mortgage, a car, three or more kids and be able to save a decent bit every month.

I appreciate that sentiment.. And on the face of it it all does seem to have gone wrong somewhere.

But normality used to be single glazed windows, damp houses, no central heating, wearing second hand clothes, no weekend breaks or holidays foreign (or even at home), no third level education etc etc.

There was no mobile phone to be paying for, no sky, Netflix, Spotify subscriptions, Internet bills, etc.

Life is way way better now for the most part but it does come at a cost.

meeeeh · 04-05-2019 02:15PM

KikiLaRue wrote: »

So yes, those were all choices you made to create the lifestyle you wanted. I don't personally see anything wrong with your decisions, but I think it's poor form to complain about your financial situation when despite all of the above, you're still saving.

If people are in employment and have a mortgage for their own property some savings are necessary just to do maintenance and repairs on the home. You can't call country council or landlord to fix the roof. And if you loose your job welfare won't cover your mortgage. Savings are not some luxury, it's very tricky without them.

Is there a "secret" recession happening?

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