Is there a "secret" recession happening?

.......

Life is after getting more expensive, but wages dont seem to be going up to match.

Just some examples personally - myself and himself feel like we are more broke than we have ever been, his wages have never recovered since the recession, and while mine have, the cost of living is much higher.

In work - one guy is leaving because his LL is selling and he cant find anywhere else to rent so he is going to a different country.

One girl in work came over from a different country for the job and was going to stay with friends til she found somewhere but its been months now and she cant find anywhere she can afford so she is likely going to go back to her home country.

Another guy in work has asked can he work from home permanently so he move to another county and live with some family members because he cannot afford his latest rent increase.

A friend has left his job for another job specifically with a company who can relocate him outside of ireland - because he says he can no longer afford the rent here.

My father in law has asked us for money to fix his roof as he hasnt two beans to rub together since his business was wiped out in the recession.

I just feel like everywhere I turn, people are struggling.

MarkR

I won a car wash the other day, so no.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

I had lunch in a not inexpensive restaurant today and the place was packed.

It's out of the bag now.

theteal

Change jobs, best way to increase salary in my experience.

corner of hells

I engage in low level drug dealing and buy and sell antique militaria.
The antique dealing is doing very well this month , much better than the drug dealing, so nobrecession for me.

Deebles McBeebles

I don't think its any big secret that people are struggling, OP.

BeerWolf

MarkR wrote: »

I won a car wash the other day, so no.

Yeah, well... I got a free easter egg from my car wash...!

kowloon

theteal wrote: »

Change jobs, best way to increase salary in my experience.

If only people knew that getting paid more was the simple solution to not being paid enough.

Del2005

....... wrote: »

Life is after getting more expensive, but wages dont seem to be going up to match.

Just some examples personally - myself and himself feel like we are more broke than we have ever been, his wages have never recovered since the recession, and while mine have, the cost of living is much higher.

In work - one guy is leaving because his LL is selling and he cant find anywhere else to rent so he is going to a different country.

One girl in work came over from a different country for the job and was going to stay with friends til she found somewhere but its been months now and she cant find anywhere she can afford so she is likely going to go back to her home country.

Another guy in work has asked can he work from home permanently so he move to another county and live with some family members because he cannot afford his latest rent increase.

A friend has left his job for another job specifically with a company who can relocate him outside of ireland - because he says he can no longer afford the rent here.

My father in law has asked us for money to fix his roof as he hasnt two beans to rub together since his business was wiped out in the recession.

I just feel like everywhere I turn, people are struggling.

Everything in this post, bar your father in law, is the opposite of a recession. In a recession prices go down not up.

You're friends are in the wrong industry. Your father in law lost his business during the recession. Did he loose the ability to work to make money since?

EmmetSpiceland

theteal wrote: »

Change jobs, best way to increase salary in my experience.

Very true. A lot of places are still using the last crash as an excuse to not give annual increases. They’ll give you the bonus but no increase.

Tacklebox

I though with the way they were going to configure our taxes prsi and that other horrific tax we're paying id have extra wages, instead after the last budget I was down 20 euro rather than up a tenner.

So that 1040 less in my wages than last year rather than the extra rather than the 520 extra.
So that's this year's holiday out the window.

Its almost as if they hire a good actuary in order to take a tenner off us every year...

So in effect that bit extra we think we're getting is an illusion.

.......

Del2005 wrote: »

Your father in law lost his business during the recession. Did he loose the ability to work to make money since?

Yes he did.

.......

Del2005 wrote: »

Everything in this post, bar your father in law, is the opposite of a recession. In a recession prices go down not up.

Thats why I called it a secret recession, I didnt mean a recession in normal terms. I dont know what to call it but all around me I see people struggling in a way I never did before - even during the "real" recession.

I think a lot of it is down to the housing market. But not all of it.

Tacklebox

Del2005 wrote: »

Everything in this post, bar your father in law, is the opposite of a recession. In a recession prices go down not up.

You're friends are in the wrong industry. Your father in law lost his business during the recession. Did he loose the ability to work to make money since?

Hope you've the same theory during the next recession.

Still waters

Del2005 wrote: »

Everything in this post, bar your father in law, is the opposite of a recession. In a recession prices go down not up.

You're friends are in the wrong industry. Your father in law lost his business during the recession. Did he loose the ability to work to make money since?

And if prices go up and wages stay the same what happens then, what industries would you recommend people work in so they never see a bad day, her father in law might still have legacy debts hes still servicing and trying g to keep his head above water at the same time

.......

Still waters wrote: »

And if prices go up and wages stay the same what happens then, what industries would you recommend people work in so they never see a bad day, her father in law might still have legacy debts hes still servicing and trying g to keep his head above water at the same time

He does and health issues and at this stage he is in his 70s so he is not going to be getting another job.

Feeling worse off is not the same as factually being worse off.

stefanovich

You forget the fact that most people are supposed to struggle.

_Brian

From what I can see is that high skilled jobs have bounced back in wages. However less skilled jobs are different, they seem to be stalled and many people are on precarious contracts.

James Brown

....... wrote: »

Life is after getting more expensive, but wages dont seem to be going up to match.

Just some examples personally - myself and himself feel like we are more broke than we have ever been, his wages have never recovered since the recession, and while mine have, the cost of living is much higher.

In work - one guy is leaving because his LL is selling and he cant find anywhere else to rent so he is going to a different country.

One girl in work came over from a different country for the job and was going to stay with friends til she found somewhere but its been months now and she cant find anywhere she can afford so she is likely going to go back to her home country.

Another guy in work has asked can he work from home permanently so he move to another county and live with some family members because he cannot afford his latest rent increase.

A friend has left his job for another job specifically with a company who can relocate him outside of ireland - because he says he can no longer afford the rent here.

My father in law has asked us for money to fix his roof as he hasnt two beans to rub together since his business was wiped out in the recession.

I just feel like everywhere I turn, people are struggling.

Different people at different levels feel it at different times. As it grows and more feel it blaming 'the left' or People Before Profit will only fly for so long. Sure we've Fianna Fail in the wings and the merry-go-round continues....

_Kaiser_

_Brian wrote: »

From what I can see is that high skilled jobs have bounced back in wages. However less skilled jobs are different, they seem to be stalled and many people are on precarious contracts.

Wages may have bounced back for some but so too have the costs - rent, fuel, utilities.. it seems like everything is back to only going one way.. up.

So while people may have more cash in their pay cheque, they could easily be worse off (especially if renting)

Brexit is beginning to bite: Look at the resulting layoffs in places like an aerospace Co. Think of the trickle down effect.

sk8erboii

A burger meal is now 25 euros. I remember 10 years ago when it was 12eu. But wages have stayed the same

Harry Palmr

All that's happened is that the price of accommodation is now completely out of whack with the growth of wages. I say all - it's quite important as rents are easily the biggest chunk of take home pay for anyone who does not live with mother or has paid off the mortgage.

JupiterKid

The issue is that there has been a divergence in the growth in wages between the highly skilled sectors like IT, Financial Services, the professions and the like and those in less skilled sectors where wages have not grown significantly and employment can be precarious (I.e. zero hour contracts, short term contracts etc.)

Add in a housing affordability crisis, especially in the private rented sector in Dublin and to a lesser extent the regional cities - driven both by soaring demand and by badly thought out housing policies by the current government and the lingering legacy issues around the last property and banking collapse - and the result is many households and families and people are indeed struggling, some struggling very badly.

Housing costs are a huge component of the financial burden on people at the moment, and it is set to get worse in the short to medium-term.

Something to be borne in mind with the upcoming local and European elections.

KikiLaRue

sk8erboii wrote: »

A burger meal is now 25 euros. I remember 10 years ago when it was 12eu. But wages have stayed the same

Where are you eating burgers??

Zorya

The workers lost the war, OP.

Dawido

We live in a capitalism, the strongest will survive and the weakest will live like locust in shared accommodation or homeless shelters.

Victor

....... wrote: »

Is there a "secret" recession happening?

https://www.google.com/search?q=recession+meaning&rlz=1C1CHBF_enIE704IE704&oq=recession+m&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l5.5534j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#cns=0

recession
/rɪˈsɛʃ(ə)n/
noun
1.
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

No there isn't a recession. Even during a boom, there will be people who will find things difficult.

henryporter

MarkR wrote: »

I won a car wash the other day, so no.

You mean you got the car washed or you went all Skylar White and picked one up from some dude called Bogdan?

Still waters

....... wrote: »

He does and health issues and at this stage he is in his 70s so he is not going to be getting another job.

But some on here will tell you he should up skill into IT and go work for google

Atlantic Dawn

It's well under way, have a look at the retail sector on its knees.

Assetbacked

....... wrote: »

Thats why I called it a secret recession, I didnt mean a recession in normal terms. I dont know what to call it but all around me I see people struggling in a way I never did before - even during the "real" recession.

I think a lot of it is down to the housing market. But not all of it.

If you are renting in Ireland the last few years, you are struggling and it has been getting worse, which would indicate that things have not been good the past few years.

caff

Not a recession, however it could be a signal to indicate a risk of one soon. If the cost of living absorbs enough of peoples wages to the extent that their disposable incomes plummets this will quickly hurt the real economy and lead to a spiral of jobs losses and recession.

Tacklebox

caff wrote: »

Not a recession, however it could be a signal to indicate a risk of one soon. If the cost of living absorbs enough of peoples wages to the extent that their disposable incomes plummets this will quickly hurt the real economy and lead to a spiral of jobs losses and recession.

That's a good response.

I can see it trickling through already, it won't necessarily hurt the people who got through the last recession such as barbers, hairdressers, public sector workers, fast food employees, you know the type of jobs that some people think are for knobs...

Im public sector myself and took a pay freeze for a few years but am climbing up again.

But I seen the devastation during the last recession, it was tough on a lot of people.

Ashleigh1986

There is the Dublin economy , and than the rest .
122 tower cranes in Dublin at the moment , 2 in galway .
Some restaurants in galway are feeling the vat increase , as in the drop in customers .
Bookings in galway for tours this year so far is behind last year .
I think with the elections coming up a somewhat of a positive is been portrayed around the country .
I think the elephant in the room ( brexit) is causing a lot of anxiety in people's spending .

vicwatson

A champagne thread has been opened in bargain alerts so we must still be booming and awash with cash

For Forks Sake

sk8erboii wrote: »

A burger meal is now 25 euros. I remember 10 years ago when it was 12eu. But wages have stayed the same

Even minimum wage is over 13% higher than ten years ago.

rgodard80a

....... wrote: »

He does and health issues and at this stage he is in his 70s so he is not going to be getting another job.

Sorry but if someone has debt in their 70s then they didn't plan their retirement properly at all and probably had no private pension expecting the state to pay for
everything after 65.

If you don't properly plan your life, have funds in place, a little savings for a rainy day etc, as a grown adult you have to take responsibility for your own actions.
It's a Nanny state at times, but not a Mammy or Daddy state.

Ash.J.Williams

I heard from a source selling specific construction equipment that they had the best April in record. Their records began before the celtic tiger.

sk8erboii

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Even minimum wage is over 13% higher than ten years ago.

Accounting for inflation and real dollar value, its lower unfortunately

Zorya

rgodard80a wrote: »

Sorry but if someone has debt in their 70s then they didn't plan their retirement properly at all and probably had no private pension expecting the state to pay for
everything after 65.

If you don't properly plan your life, have funds in place, a little savings for a rainy day etc, as a grown adult you have to take responsibility for your own actions.
It's a Nanny state at times, but not a Mammy or Daddy state.

Ugh. I'm guessing you presume that the sun will always shine for you. My Dad started working fulltime at 14 in the 50s. The 1980s recession wiped him out. He worked and worked thereafter, too hard, but died poor. Terribly sick and poor.
You have no compassion if you presume that the very best laid plans do not go awry, because they do, for many people.
I hate this quality of resenting people the pittance they might get off a pension or the social welfare net.
Do you not realise that everything you depend on now - your roads, your water, your infrastructure - was provided for you by someone else - your doctor's education was vastly subsidised, your food is cheap because of massive intervention and artificial trade mechanisms and the sweat and blood of subsistence labourers in countries and circumstances you could never survive. Ditto your furniture and technology and petrol.
You are wholly connected to and interdependent with other people some of whom live or have in the far past lived short desperate lives just so you can be so arrogant and cocksure now about people taking responsibility for themselves.

VinLieger

Going by the literal definition of the word no there is not

ednwireland

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Even minimum wage is over 13% higher than ten years ago.

my wages aren't, about 7 % higher in 10 years and that's one pay rise. Well under the average pay.

Pkiernan

Crippling taxes to support the non working class are the root cause of this unseen recession.

RobbingBandit

Pkiernan wrote: »

Crippling taxes to support the non working class are the root cause of this unseen recession.

crippling taxes to support banking crisis era debt and massive pension fund for former political numptys

Still waters

rgodard80a wrote: »

Sorry but if someone has debt in their 70s then they didn't plan their retirement properly at all and probably had no private pension expecting the state to pay for
everything after 65.

If you don't properly plan your life, have funds in place, a little savings for a rainy day etc, as a grown adult you have to take responsibility for your own actions.
It's a Nanny state at times, but not a Mammy or Daddy state.

And I'll be willing to bet you've never had the cahones to set up a business or stick your neck out for something you believe in to succeed only to see it fail, in an ideal world we would all be teachers, doctors and civil servants, but without the likes of your employer and people willing to take a risk the country would sink in a month

Pkiernan

Pkiernan wrote: »

Crippling taxes to support the non working class are the root cause of this unseen recession.

The recession isn't seen because it isn't happening.

People seem to use the word 'recession' for all kinds of strange phenomena -- personal financial security, a general feeling of wealth permeating their personal lives, or whatever.

Whatever you think of how it's measured, it clearly is not happening. It isn't a secret, simply non-existent.

Like most people, I can remember very well the last boom, and the widespread cries of how difficult it was to make ends meet. What was usually happening, was that people were watching how their neighbours were living (or, how we suspected our neighbours were living, perhaps), and anxious that we weren't enjoying the same quality of life. It was also a commonly-used tool for seeking higher salaries, sometimes unjustifiably so.

Apart from the difficulty in buying and renting property, which is truly a crisis, I see very little evidence of anyone who is in work and truly struggling. In that sense, the economic security of most households doesn't seem to be declining. But that's anecdotal and unreliable.

What we do reliably know is that we are not in recession.

lawred2

Both myself and the wife are professionals in Dublin. Six figure pre tax household income whittled away in tax.

Salary comes in. Mortgage and Creche fees go out and we're broke. Struggling to add a few hundred quid a month to our savings..

Rinse and repeat every month.

Letter this week to inform us creche fees to go up 5% for the second year in a row.

Nothing really tying us to Dublin. Would give serious thought to somewhere else if the numbers stacked up.

Ash.J.Williams

Zorya wrote: »

Ugh. I'm guessing you presume that the sun will always shine for you. My Dad started working fulltime at 14 in the 50s. The 1980s recession wiped him out. He worked and worked thereafter, too hard, but died poor. Terribly sick and poor.
You have no compassion if you presume that the very best laid plans do not go awry, because they do, for many people.
I hate this quality of resenting people the pittance they might get off a pension or the social welfare net.
Do you not realise that everything you depend on now - your roads, your water, your infrastructure - was provided for you by someone else - your doctor's education was vastly subsidised, your food is cheap because of massive intervention and artificial trade mechanisms and the sweat and blood of subsistence labourers in countries and circumstances you could never survive. Ditto your furniture and technology and petrol.
You are wholly connected to and interdependent with other people some of whom live or have in the far past lived short desperate lives just so you can be so arrogant and cocksure now about people taking responsibility for themselves.

Thanks for this... Great response