NI local elections 2019

Are council elections even related to a border poll?

Surely its the Westminster election results that'll matter in this?

NIMAN wrote: »

Are council elections even related to a border poll?

Surely its the Westminster election results that'll matter in this?

Stormont would be more useful than Westminster. Anyway, its down the SoS to decide when its credible; not tied to any specific electoral results - although should there ever be a nationalist majority in Stormont and the SoS trying to refuse a poll I imagine there'd be legal challenges.

L1011 wrote: »

Aontu appear to be getting nowhere, taking votes off the SDLP if anything

Great. Social Conservatism will eat itself.

No fan of Aontú but they are only in existence a wet week and this is their first electoral test. They're more relevant than Renua anyway.

Let's see how they do in our GE.

Internet coverage of the North of Ireland local elections is shocking.

Even Slugger isn't getting stuck in.

Take a look at the excuses Aontú are rolling out - cause they'll be using them again in 3 weeks. 'only a new party', 'fighting the establishment', 'strong showing for such a new force' etc when close to nobody gets in.

L1011 wrote: »

Take a look at the excuses Aontú are rolling out - cause they'll be using them again in 3 weeks. 'only a new party', 'fighting the establishment', 'strong showing for such a new force' etc when close to nobody gets in.

Leave them be. It's better when they fail within their delusion.

That side of nationalism is tiny and getting smaller all the time. It's exactly why FF and the SDLP are where they are. There's little room for anything else on that side. Thankfully.

Very early days but looks like the smaller parties have made gains at the expense of the two sectarian parties, can only be good news. Even within the sectarian parties, the election of Bennington is a welcome change, even if I wish every single one of their candidates was defeated.

UUP not doing well, but hopefully the swing to the Greens and the Alliance hold up tomorrow as more counting takes place.

The message will hopefully be read as get on with the business of restoring Stormont. Will require some climbing down by Sinn Fein, but time they learned some humility.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Good to see Alison Bennington elected. Hopefully the more conciliatory and liberal within the DUP will use it to make the changes almost everyone in northern Ireland wants. Equality for all.

I happened to stumble upon the BBC's coverage and analysis earlier.

Someone like her cannot come soon enough and make change in the DUP. Everyone deserves to be judged on who they are not who they want to go to bed with, but we had Jim Wells blabbering on and on about how so many people in the DUP were disillusioned with the thing and she was being parachuted in and that someone had to 'hold the line' (in relation to preventing equal marriage).

I was honestly shocked and annoyed that someone in NI's largest party would be so openly homophobic and bigoted. Makes Arelene Foster seem like a bastion of liberalism by comparison. I didn't think that kind of thing happened any more outside of extremist parties like Identity Ireland and the BNP and such likes, then again nothing should surprise me given the DUP's carry on the past few years. Thankfully, only about 1 in 4 people in the North support them.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Normalising the DUP should never be encouraged. It shouldn't be a "good thing" to have a gay candidate.

A candidate's sexuality should be irrelevant.

Absolutely agree.

But they have to be taken on a journey (DUP) and the good thing is it has started.

Small steps.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Surprised the UUP haven't been able to capitalise. They dropped 16 seats last time out and look like sliding again.

If they couldn't make hay while the DUP have been in limbo for 2 yrs locally, and pushing ahead with a crazy crash out Brexit, then they'll never do it.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

On a side point. Anyone know why the count takes so long in the north?

I imagine it is because they don't count some on the first night and then close some count centres early on the other nights because of security concerns

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Absolutely agree.

But they have to be taken on a journey (DUP) and the good thing is it has started.

Small steps.

Couldn't agree more. Who people want to go to bed with is nobody's business but their own. But baby steps in the case of the DUP. Even though I despise the DUP, I'm happy she got elected, the times are changing and eventually the North will catch up with the rest of Ireland and the UK in such legislation (indeed opinion polls show people in NI have broadly similar attitudes to the rest of Ireland and the UK on social issues anyway).

As for the UUP, it seems as though liberal Unionists vote for the Alliance party these days, it seems like the Alliance put forward too few candidates and could have won more seats, as they were saying on the BBC last night more moderate Unionists are no longer afraid of the 'horror stories' put out by the DUP and the likes about 'them 'uns' and don't always vote for explicitly Unionist parties any more (although I always thought the Alliance was soft Unionist).

What's actually interesting is that although the DUP vote is up, it's coming from hardliners like the TUV and the PUP, they're actually losing more liberal Unionist votes to the likes of the Alliance. So, their hardline positions on things like equal marriage and Brexit are costing them votes. That is undoubtedly a good thing for Northern Ireland in the long run.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

On a side point. Anyone know why the count takes so long in the north?

Fractional transfers to increase proportionality. We just grab the last bundle of votes which can have a significant distortion affect sometimes

Seanad also does fractional for its panels

NIMAN wrote: »

Gary Donnelly, a supporter of the dissidents, and the folks who killed Lyra McKee, elected in Derry.

So much for the backlash against these people. They have more support than the media and the police would have you believe.

What was his first preference vote, do you know?

L1011 wrote: »

Fractional transfers to increase proportionality. We just grab the last bundle of votes which can have a significant distortion affect sometimes

Seanad also does fractional for its panels

I'm at a loss to know how the South gets away with this lottery grab of the last bundle. It could make for an interesting court challenge.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Dunno but I heard that he topped the poll.

To have anyone associated with anything like topping a poll is disgusting.

Very disappointed to see tacit approval given to these delinquents.

As expected, the DUP didn't suffer at all from their Brexit position.
Hard to know what else to read from the trends if anything other than perhaps Alliance are gaining what were previously moderate Unionist/Nationalist votes?

RainNeverBow wrote: »

On the surface of it those results look more like continental European parliaments than the republic!

Personally I'm happy enough with those results. Winning over some percentage to the Alliance and Greens is good. So would put that down as non sectarian vote gains overall.

Ultimately though, SF and primarily the DUP need to find compromise. SF have been at least trying a moderate form of republicanism, it's high time the DUP try a moderate form of unionism.

*And the Greens will have to be rebrand specifically for Northern Irish politics. Maybe 'The Union of Traditionalist Nature Friends' would get some traction?

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Unionist parties' vote percentage lowest ever recorded at about 41%. It'll be interesting to see how the traditionally unionist parties try to reverse the inexorable decline.

The old 'we have what we hold' strategy to prevent equality breaking out just won't cut it any more with what they hold eroding away beneath their feet.

Let them at it. Mike Nesbitts UUP tried to forge a more rational course. It was rejected. Shamefully.

Let unionists live in denial.

Sorry Francie, been looking but can't find individual vote count per candidate.

I only seen the 1400 for Donnelly in a news story.

NIMAN wrote: »

Sorry Francie, been looking but can't find individual vote count per candidate.

I only seen the 1400 for Donnelly in a news story.

I have asked a mate for them and will post if he gets them. Would certainly be interesting to see.
1400 seems crazy to me. I knew they had support but not that much, and certainly not after the mess last weekend.