NI local elections 2019

gfagen

Will Sinn Fein close the gap on the DUP in the battle for the 11 local authorities in NI? If so, it will make a border poll more likely as it would show that a majority would want reunification thus Bradley would have to hold a referendum as per the GFA.

NIMAN

Are council elections even related to a border poll?

Surely its the Westminster election results that'll matter in this?

FrancieBrady

gfagen wrote: »

Will Sinn Fein close the gap on the DUP in the battle for the 11 local authorities in NI? If so, it will make a border poll more likely as it would show that a majority would want reunification thus Bradley would have to hold a referendum as per the GFA.

Not going to happen, and isn't an expected outcome of these elections.

L1011

NIMAN wrote: »

Are council elections even related to a border poll?

Surely its the Westminster election results that'll matter in this?

Stormont would be more useful than Westminster. Anyway, its down the SoS to decide when its credible; not tied to any specific electoral results - although should there ever be a nationalist majority in Stormont and the SoS trying to refuse a poll I imagine there'd be legal challenges.

L1011

Aontu appear to be getting nowhere, taking votes off the SDLP if anything

BonnieSituation

L1011 wrote: »

Aontu appear to be getting nowhere, taking votes off the SDLP if anything

Great. Social Conservatism will eat itself.

No fan of Aontú but they are only in existence a wet week and this is their first electoral test. They're more relevant than Renua anyway.

Let's see how they do in our GE.

awec

NIMAN wrote: »

Are council elections even related to a border poll?

Surely its the Westminster election results that'll matter in this?

Not in the slightest. Council elections are about getting your bins lifted and fixing potholes.

BonnieSituation

Internet coverage of the North of Ireland local elections is shocking.

Even Slugger isn't getting stuck in.

Itssoeasy

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Great. Social Conservatism will eat itself.

No fan of Aontú but they are only in existence a wet week and this is their first electoral test. They're more relevant than Renua anyway.

Let's see how they do in our GE.

I'm sure you meant that as a compliment but it's really not.

L1011

Take a look at the excuses Aontú are rolling out - cause they'll be using them again in 3 weeks. 'only a new party', 'fighting the establishment', 'strong showing for such a new force' etc when close to nobody gets in.

BonnieSituation

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I'm sure you meant that as a compliment but it's really not.

I meant it as a statement of fact.

As a liberal social democratic Nationalist, it's almost impossible to compliment them.

BonnieSituation

L1011 wrote: »

Take a look at the excuses Aontú are rolling out - cause they'll be using them again in 3 weeks. 'only a new party', 'fighting the establishment', 'strong showing for such a new force' etc when close to nobody gets in.

Leave them be. It's better when they fail within their delusion.

That side of nationalism is tiny and getting smaller all the time. It's exactly why FF and the SDLP are where they are. There's little room for anything else on that side. Thankfully.

FrancieBrady

Good to see Alison Bennington elected. Hopefully the more conciliatory and liberal within the DUP will use it to make the changes almost everyone in northern Ireland wants. Equality for all.

blanch152

Very early days but looks like the smaller parties have made gains at the expense of the two sectarian parties, can only be good news. Even within the sectarian parties, the election of Bennington is a welcome change, even if I wish every single one of their candidates was defeated.

UUP not doing well, but hopefully the swing to the Greens and the Alliance hold up tomorrow as more counting takes place.

The message will hopefully be read as get on with the business of restoring Stormont. Will require some climbing down by Sinn Fein, but time they learned some humility.

votecounts

blanch152 wrote: »

Very early days but looks like the smaller parties have made gains at the expense of the two sectarian parties, can only be good news. Even within the sectarian parties, the election of Bennington is a welcome change, even if I wish every single one of their candidates was defeated.

UUP not doing well, but hopefully the swing to the Greens and the Alliance hold up tomorrow as more counting takes place.

The message will hopefully be read as get on with the business of restoring Stormont. Will require some climbing down by Sinn Fein, but time they learned some humility.

So they should forget about the Irish Language Act and The Cash for Ash scheme, basically do everything the DUP wants. Arlene should have stepped aside at the time perhaps its the DUP who needs humility.

Leonard Hofstadter

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Good to see Alison Bennington elected. Hopefully the more conciliatory and liberal within the DUP will use it to make the changes almost everyone in northern Ireland wants. Equality for all.

I happened to stumble upon the BBC's coverage and analysis earlier.

Someone like her cannot come soon enough and make change in the DUP. Everyone deserves to be judged on who they are not who they want to go to bed with, but we had Jim Wells blabbering on and on about how so many people in the DUP were disillusioned with the thing and she was being parachuted in and that someone had to 'hold the line' (in relation to preventing equal marriage).

I was honestly shocked and annoyed that someone in NI's largest party would be so openly homophobic and bigoted. Makes Arelene Foster seem like a bastion of liberalism by comparison. I didn't think that kind of thing happened any more outside of extremist parties like Identity Ireland and the BNP and such likes, then again nothing should surprise me given the DUP's carry on the past few years. Thankfully, only about 1 in 4 people in the North support them.

BonnieSituation

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Good to see Alison Bennington elected. Hopefully the more conciliatory and liberal within the DUP will use it to make the changes almost everyone in northern Ireland wants. Equality for all.

Normalising the DUP should never be encouraged. It shouldn't be a "good thing" to have a gay candidate.

A candidate's sexuality should be irrelevant.

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Normalising the DUP should never be encouraged. It shouldn't be a "good thing" to have a gay candidate.

A candidate's sexuality should be irrelevant.

Absolutely agree.

But they have to be taken on a journey (DUP) and the good thing is it has started.

Small steps.

FrancieBrady

Surprised the UUP haven't been able to capitalise. They dropped 16 seats last time out and look like sliding again.

NIMAN

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Surprised the UUP haven't been able to capitalise. They dropped 16 seats last time out and look like sliding again.

If they couldn't make hay while the DUP have been in limbo for 2 yrs locally, and pushing ahead with a crazy crash out Brexit, then they'll never do it.

FrancieBrady

On a side point. Anyone know why the count takes so long in the north?

votecounts

FrancieBrady wrote: »

On a side point. Anyone know why the count takes so long in the north?

I imagine it is because they don't count some on the first night and then close some count centres early on the other nights because of security concerns

eagle eye

votecounts wrote:

So they should forget about the Irish Language Act and The Cash for Ash scheme, basically do everything the DUP wants. Arlene should have stepped aside at the time perhaps its the DUP who needs humility.

Both SF and the DUP need to cop on.

McMurphy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Absolutely agree.

But they have to be taken on a journey (DUP) and the good thing is it has started.

Small steps.

Definitely small steps.

The party is still infested with creationist bigoted dinosaurs though.

Although she received warm congratulations from many of her party colleagues, former DUP health minister Jim Wells said his former leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, would be “aghast”.

banie01

To see SF take council seats in Lisburn is something I honestly never thought I'd see in the near term.

Leonard Hofstadter

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Absolutely agree.

But they have to be taken on a journey (DUP) and the good thing is it has started.

Small steps.

Couldn't agree more. Who people want to go to bed with is nobody's business but their own. But baby steps in the case of the DUP. Even though I despise the DUP, I'm happy she got elected, the times are changing and eventually the North will catch up with the rest of Ireland and the UK in such legislation (indeed opinion polls show people in NI have broadly similar attitudes to the rest of Ireland and the UK on social issues anyway).

As for the UUP, it seems as though liberal Unionists vote for the Alliance party these days, it seems like the Alliance put forward too few candidates and could have won more seats, as they were saying on the BBC last night more moderate Unionists are no longer afraid of the 'horror stories' put out by the DUP and the likes about 'them 'uns' and don't always vote for explicitly Unionist parties any more (although I always thought the Alliance was soft Unionist).

What's actually interesting is that although the DUP vote is up, it's coming from hardliners like the TUV and the PUP, they're actually losing more liberal Unionist votes to the likes of the Alliance. So, their hardline positions on things like equal marriage and Brexit are costing them votes. That is undoubtedly a good thing for Northern Ireland in the long run.

TCM

blanch152 wrote:

The message will hopefully be read as get on with the business of restoring Stormont. Will require some climbing down by Sinn Fein, but time they learned some humility.

Why should SF have learned some humility might I ask? Please elaborate.

L1011

FrancieBrady wrote: »

On a side point. Anyone know why the count takes so long in the north?

Fractional transfers to increase proportionality. We just grab the last bundle of votes which can have a significant distortion affect sometimes

Seanad also does fractional for its panels

NIMAN

Gary Donnelly, a supporter of the dissidents, and the folks who killed Lyra McKee, elected in Derry.

So much for the backlash against these people. They have more support than the media and the police would have you believe.

FrancieBrady

NIMAN wrote: »

Gary Donnelly, a supporter of the dissidents, and the folks who killed Lyra McKee, elected in Derry.

So much for the backlash against these people. They have more support than the media and the police would have you believe.

What was his first preference vote, do you know?

BonnieSituation

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Absolutely agree.

But they have to be taken on a journey (DUP) and the good thing is it has started.

Small steps.

The journey should be out the back lane.

feargale

L1011 wrote: »

Fractional transfers to increase proportionality. We just grab the last bundle of votes which can have a significant distortion affect sometimes

Seanad also does fractional for its panels

I'm at a loss to know how the South gets away with this lottery grab of the last bundle. It could make for an interesting court challenge.

Seth Brundle

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What was his first preference vote, do you know?

Dunno but I heard that he topped the poll.

Kermit.de.frog

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Dunno but I heard that he topped the poll.

To have anyone associated with anything like topping a poll is disgusting.

Very disappointed to see tacit approval given to these delinquents.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/markdevenport/status/1124671363443318785

Disappointing to see the DUP vote hold up but it doesn't surprise me.

More encouraging is that the combined unionist vote stands at 41%, down from previous years.

josip

As expected, the DUP didn't suffer at all from their Brexit position.
Hard to know what else to read from the trends if anything other than perhaps Alliance are gaining what were previously moderate Unionist/Nationalist votes?

RainNeverBow

On the surface of it those results look more like continental European parliaments than the republic!

FrancieBrady

RainNeverBow wrote: »

On the surface of it those results look more like continental European parliaments than the republic!

RainNeverBow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

5 strong parties with good healthy shares of the vote. FF/FG get more of the vote here than DUP/SF

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Personally I'm happy enough with those results. Winning over some percentage to the Alliance and Greens is good. So would put that down as non sectarian vote gains overall.

Ultimately though, SF and primarily the DUP need to find compromise. SF have been at least trying a moderate form of republicanism, it's high time the DUP try a moderate form of unionism.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Internet coverage of the North of Ireland local elections is shocking.

Even Slugger isn't getting stuck in.

Noticed that. I get the feeling Mick is losing heart.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

*And the Greens will have to be rebrand specifically for Northern Irish politics. Maybe 'The Union of Traditionalist Nature Friends' would get some traction?

Junkyard Tom

Unionist parties' vote percentage lowest ever recorded at about 41%. It'll be interesting to see how the traditionally unionist parties try to reverse the inexorable decline.

The old 'we have what we hold' strategy to prevent equality breaking out just won't cut it any more with what they hold eroding away beneath their feet.

BonnieSituation

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Unionist parties' vote percentage lowest ever recorded at about 41%. It'll be interesting to see how the traditionally unionist parties try to reverse the inexorable decline.

The old 'we have what we hold' strategy to prevent equality breaking out just won't cut it any more with what they hold eroding away beneath their feet.

Let them at it. Mike Nesbitts UUP tried to forge a more rational course. It was rejected. Shamefully.

Let unionists live in denial.

NIMAN

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What was his first preference vote, do you know?

1400

Thats 1400 people who have no issue with what the dissidents are up to.

And we are told they have no support

uck51js9zml2yt

Was reading that a dissident republican councillor topped the poll in Derry.

They get what they deserve. All this rubbish last week protesting against them and then they vote one in.

Maybe Trump can build a wall to protect us ,!!!

FrancieBrady

NIMAN wrote: »

1400

Thats 1400 people who have no issue with what the dissidents are up to.

And we are told they have no support

Thanks Niman.
You don't have a link to the actual count by any chance?

NIMAN

Sorry Francie, been looking but can't find individual vote count per candidate.

I only seen the 1400 for Donnelly in a news story.

L1011

Someone I actually know has been elected to Belfast CC. That justifies me giving far, far, far to much attention to these elections I think.

FrancieBrady

NIMAN wrote: »

Sorry Francie, been looking but can't find individual vote count per candidate.

I only seen the 1400 for Donnelly in a news story.

I have asked a mate for them and will post if he gets them. Would certainly be interesting to see.
1400 seems crazy to me. I knew they had support but not that much, and certainly not after the mess last weekend.

uck51js9zml2yt

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Thanks Niman.
You don't have a link to the actual count by any chance?

1374

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/dissident-republican-politician-gary-donnelly-tops-poll-in-area-where-journalist-lyra-mckee-was-murdered-38079078.html