Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle · 29-04-2019 12:44PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Absolute gold from Sammy Wilson this morning

What the hell is he talking about!?

Maybe he is confusing the UK and Irish governments...
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brexit-could-end-cross-border-electricity-supply-british-government-warns-1.3661937

Strazdas · 29-04-2019 02:49PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The idea that we should veto an independent Scotland joining the EU is just absurd. What would we gain? The EU have stood shoulder to shoulder with Ireland. Ireland would expend significant political capital and sour relations with its EU counterparts for no gain whatsoever.

It's up there with this silly notion of Angela Merkel throwing the Irish under a bus to sell more Volkswagen Beetles to the British.

Also, Scotland could be a powerful ally for Ireland in the EU. The idea that they would be a 'rival' or 'competitor' is nonsense. Nicola Sturgeon was greeted like a rock star when she addressed the Seanad a year or two ago.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-04-2019 02:57PM

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1122835456339607561

An expert rightfully dismissing nonsense from IDS.

Anteayer · 29-04-2019 03:01PM

There's a *HUGE* problem in the UK with people making these confidently expressed statements about highly technical topics without anything to back them up other than a posh accent.

If the media doesn't start asking follow up questions when someone makes a self-assured statement, the debate doesn't move on.

Fact checking is absolutely essential and fundamental to good journalism and I don't think it's been happening in England for some time.

Leroy42 · 29-04-2019 03:06PM

I have no idea why IDS is continually given such airtime and treated as some supposed expert, or even a knowledgeable MP.

Hasn't he had a number of meetings with Barnier himself? What came out of those? Surely he should be asked why TM has been totally unable to get Barnier to agree to what, I assume, Barnier agreed with IDS about given that he continually tells everyone how easy it all should be.

AlmightyCushion · 29-04-2019 03:16PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1122835456339607561

An expert rightfully dismissing nonsense from IDS.

Experts?!?!? Sure, what do they know.

reslfj · 29-04-2019 04:20PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Experts?!?!? Sure, what do they know.

A shorter and more focused view.

https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1122829905811714049

eire4 · 29-04-2019 04:26PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The idea that we should veto an independent Scotland joining the EU is just absurd. What would we gain? The EU have stood shoulder to shoulder with Ireland. Ireland would expend significant political capital and sour relations with its EU counterparts for no gain whatsoever.

It's up there with this silly notion of Angela Merkel throwing the Irish under a bus to sell more Volkswagen Beetles to the British.

Agree there is absolutely no chance that the Irish government will veto a fully independent Scotland joining the EU if as seems likely they pull away from the UK if brexit ever does actually become a reality.

Sam Russell · 29-04-2019 04:35PM

eire4 wrote: »

Agree there is absolutely no chance that the Irish government will veto a fully independent Scotland joining the EU if as seems likely they pull away from the UK if brexit ever does actually become a reality.

Ireland would have a lot in common with an independent Scotland. Similar population and economy. Particularly if there was a united Ireland, then we would have even more in common and we would be strong allies on nearly every issue.

On the question of FDI, why would we care what goes to Scotland as we get enough here, and if Scotland had significant FDI, then that is another issue we would agree on.

lawred2 · 29-04-2019 04:37PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Ireland would have a lot in common with an independent Scotland. Similar population and economy. Particularly if there was a united Ireland, then we would have even more in common and we would be strong allies on nearly every issue.

On the question of FDI, why would we care what goes to Scotland as we get enough here, and if Scotland had significant FDI, then that is another issue we would agree on.

plus a strong Scotland would be a decent trading partner

RobertKK · 29-04-2019 04:41PM

eire4 wrote: »

Agree there is absolutely no chance that the Irish government will veto a fully independent Scotland joining the EU if as seems likely they pull away from the UK if brexit ever does actually become a reality.

I watched Nicola Sturgeon when she was in the Seanad on what appeared to be akin to a state visit - she gave a speech and was a guest there.
The senators were all very warm towards her both in praise and the type of questions asked. It became clear as one watched that the Seanad at least would appear to support Scottish independence and sort of brought it back to our own independence near 100 years ago.
It looked to me as if Ireland would be there to fully support an independent Scotland.

eire4 · 29-04-2019 04:56PM

lawred2 wrote: »

plus a strong Scotland would be a decent trading partner

I would think so on trade yes.
It all comes down to brexit really. If it actually becomes a reality I don't seen any other outcome other then Scottish independence and then membership of the EU coming along in the wake of that.

Hurrache · 29-04-2019 08:10PM

Tell me how wrote: »

The topic of BBC bias has been discussed already.

Watching their news show last night at ten, I was a bit dumbfounded at the tone of Katya Adler. She was in Spain for the results of their election yesterday in which the ruling Socialists Party won and are likely to form a coalition.

She started her report stating how there had been big gains for the right wing but it turned out that what had happened was that the former ruling conservative party had suffered big losses which meant that gains by the ultra conservative Vox had been at their cost.

It seemed to me that she seemed somewhat frustrated that the election hadn't result in a comprehensive shift towards conservatism.

I rewound and watched her report again and felt that maybe i had been judging her harshly the first time but also that actually, maybe not.

It hasn't gone unnoticed in Europe or Spain either.
https://twitter.com/AgataGostynska/status/1122895415664349184?s=19

tipp_tipp_tipp · 29-04-2019 08:22PM

Can't see the Scots voting for independence if the UK is outside the customs union and single market. According to wikipedia 63% of their exports is to the rest of the UK (if this figure is false let me know). Can't see them risking disrupting that in any way. Ironically the same Tories who dismiss the Irish border issue will no doubt big up the potential for customs checks between England and Scotland in the lead up to an independence vote.

BonnieSituation · 29-04-2019 08:29PM

tipp_tipp_tipp wrote: »

Can't see the Scots voting for independence if the UK is outside the customs union and single market. According to wikipedia 63% of their exports is to the rest of the UK (if this figure is false let me know). Can't see them risking disrupting that in any way. Ironically the same Tories who dismiss the Irish border issue will no doubt big up the potential for customs checks between England and Scotland in the lead up to an independence vote.

I do love when people talk about "exports" between 2 parts of the same State.

Capt'n Midnight · 29-04-2019 08:39PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Absolute gold from Sammy Wilson this morning

What the hell is he talking about!?

The UK as a whole imports electricity. Most of the nuclear plants are scheduled to close. Only one of six replacement plants is actually going ahead and it's late and insanely over budget. And the whole VAT on imports thing too. So security of supply is an issue. There needs to be a plan to keep the lights on because you can't build power stations overnight.

Over here.
There is a single energy market on the island. But NI's big fossil fuel plants lost out on recent auctions and are scheduled to close , being kept on life support by subsidies. Or a magic floating power plant will swan up the Lagan and it will be sunshine, lollipops and rainbows, except the DUP don't do rainbows or the other stuff.

So NI is reliant on the single market to provide security of supply.

But it's just part of the Blame Game. Next time you see Sammy ask him about running those two power plants on wood pellets under the Renewable Heat Incentive scheme.

Kilroot power station near Carrickfergus, which had been facing closure, has been given a new one-year deal to provide energy to the grid.

Ballylumford power station: Unite says 80 jobs 'to go'

Capt'n Midnight · 29-04-2019 08:54PM

tipp_tipp_tipp wrote: »

Can't see the Scots voting for independence if the UK is outside the customs union and single market. According to wikipedia 63% of their exports is to the rest of the UK (if this figure is false let me know). Can't see them risking disrupting that in any way. Ironically the same Tories who dismiss the Irish border issue will no doubt big up the potential for customs checks between England and Scotland in the lead up to an independence vote.

At independence 94% of our exports went to the UK.

Bulk trade will always be local. The UK will still buy Whisky and Salmon and oil and electricity. Scotland will still buy Buckie and cars made in England by foreign owned companies.

Scotland already has a separate legal system. Pegging the currency to Sterling is essential but easy to do. Like Nicola said earlier they can look at the mess of Brexit to see now not to leave.

CelticRambler · 29-04-2019 10:33PM

Deleted User wrote: »

One of the main gripes for Brexiteers is the fact that "they look our jobs", when will they realise that "they" were invited over and given the jobs (at lower rates and conditions) that would have been taken by the local population.
Globalisation is the real issue here, it has allowed multinationals to choose " á la carte" where to put factories, where to select workers & where to pay taxes.

Yep. And 'twas ever thus. "Globalisation" is a handy slogan to use when justifying any refusal to face up to the evolution of commerce, industry and society; but "globalisation" has been around for several hundred years. Over the weekend, I was in Lyon - the centre of the universe in Roman and early mediaeval times, at least as far as the Lyonais were concerned, being situated on a major trade route between Rome and Britannia, and a great place for the Italians to do business with the Germans. Then some bloke discovered America and suddenly there was more money to be made in the Atlantic ports.

Fast forward a few centuries and the industrial revolution (a British invention) was greeted with dismay and a refusal to face reality by all kinds of workers who didn't want to see their miserable 18-hours-a-day jobs taken by these fancy machine things. Funnily enough, though, few of them ended up out of work, because they left their rural hovels and got jobs in the city where there were loads of those fancy machine things.

Populations have been shifting since time immemorial, and humanity is all the better for it. And for the most part, business has been hell-bent on exploiting workers and avoiding taxes since the first Mesopotamian decided to sell his granny to build a pyramid. And above all, throughout history, the most successful, commerically viable strategy in avoiding conflict and maintaining a peaceful society has been to forge mutually beneficial trading alliances with one's neighbours.

Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that a large portion of the English population think that England is exempt from tradition, historical precedent and cause-and-effect. I doubt that the Scots are affected with the same delusion, and I'm sure they would make a great success of EU membership as an independent nation. England, on the other hand, appears to be rapidly heading towards an inflection point in its history, and it'll take more than a copy of the IDA handbook to turn it around.

ancapailldorcha · 29-04-2019 11:22PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

At independence 94% of our exports went to the UK.

Bulk trade will always be local. The UK will still buy Whisky and Salmon and oil and electricity. Scotland will still buy Buckie and cars made in England by foreign owned companies.

Scotland already has a separate legal system. Pegging the currency to Sterling is essential but easy to do. Like Nicola said earlier they can look at the mess of Brexit to see now not to leave.

The issue that Unionists face here is that Sturgeon is a highly capable operator who is well spoken, transparent and consistent and that's something the Westminster Etonians are going to really struggle with now that they've pushed Brexit on the Scots on such dubious and nebulous grounds.

Here's an interview she did with Channel 4 news who got quite aggressive on the idea of her committing to the Euro but not actually adopting it as if she were some sort of aspiring dictator in waiting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNFKII1C8gI

I'd like the UK to survive but if it doesn't I sincerely envy the Scots the SNP and Ms. Sturgeon. The SNP also has other talents like Mhari Black and Alyn Smith. Scotland's politics seems to be a lot less polarised than that of Britain as a whole and much more based in reasoned debate and less in abstract ideologies. The fear tactics worked before primarily because of the EU and associated economic arguments. Those tactics are off the table and there is no substitute for them at present.

Forcing Brexit upon Northern Ireland and Scotland (Wales voted for Brexit) just goes one step further in dispelling the fiction that the UK is a union of nations when in actual fact it is just England with three satellite states. The British establishment either recognises this and acts to rectify the situation or it doesn't and the UK fragments.

BonnieSituation · 29-04-2019 11:44PM

That was a horrible interview handled expertly as always.

She's a class act.

briany · 30-04-2019 01:06AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Forcing Brexit upon Northern Ireland and Scotland (Wales voted for Brexit) just goes one step further in dispelling the fiction that the UK is a union of nations when in actual fact it is just England with three satellite states. The British establishment either recognises this and acts to rectify the situation or it doesn't and the UK fragments.

There is an element of the English character that is bothered by not being at the head of any union of which they are part.

English Brexiteers assumedly think the UK is democratic, but is the UK any more democratic than the EU?

- Scotland, NI and Wales get laws handed down to them from London. Sometimes even laws that they voted against.

- The upper house of the UK legislature is full of unelected old men

- Their legislature is subservient to an unelected old woman.

LeinsterDub · 30-04-2019 08:28AM

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1123118911262687235

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1123111129830576128

More meaningless noise out of the UK's two main parties.

WhiteMan32 · 30-04-2019 06:37PM

"The NEC agreed the (European elections) manifesto which will be fully in line with Labour’s existing policy; to support Labour’s alternative plan and, if we can’t get the necessary changes to the government’s deal, or a general election, to back the option of a public vote” a Labour source said.

Enzokk · 30-04-2019 06:47PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd like the UK to survive but if it doesn't I sincerely envy the Scots the SNP and Ms. Sturgeon. The SNP also has other talents like Mhari Black and Alyn Smith. Scotland's politics seems to be a lot less polarised than that of Britain as a whole and much more based in reasoned debate and less in abstract ideologies. The fear tactics worked before primarily because of the EU and associated economic arguments. Those tactics are off the table and there is no substitute for them at present.

I do wonder whether it is to do with the fact that they have system that means that one party doesn't dominate if they only get 40% of the vote but the representation is evened out more in the Scottish Parliament. This forces parties to work together more rather than the confrontational politics you see in the UK parliament and the media.

Capt'n Midnight · 30-04-2019 07:59PM

In news completely not related to Brexit.

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) will build its next-generation Land Rover Defender 4x4 in Slovakia rather than the UK.

In January 2016, some 67 years of the 4x4 being made at Solihull came to an end.
...

The new Defender will be built at the company's £1bn plant in Nitra in Slovakia, which opened in October 2018.

The plant wasn't build overnight, but since most of the UK car industry is foreign owned this sort of thing is to be expected. Every line closed down shrinks the market for UK parts companies.

The tipping point is when cars made in the UK no longer have enough UK content to be classed as UK cars for international trade deals At present this is a complete non-issue as it's EU content for EU deals.

lawred2 · 30-04-2019 08:45PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That was a horrible interview handled expertly as always.

She's a class act.

She is. And I would be an admirer of hers but the SNP can't go in to the next referendum with that same position on the pound that they had in 2014. It's not convincing. And it's easily attacked.

Just be brutally honest... We want to join the EU and we will commit to join the euro when it's right for Scotland. Until then it's a pound pegged to the pound sterling.

I don't think too many will be convinced by the 'our pound' claims. Especially when monetary policy is dictated in London.

Capt'n Midnight · 30-04-2019 08:47PM

In news completely not related to Brexit.

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) will build its next-generation Land Rover Defender 4x4 in Slovakia rather than the UK.

In January 2016, some 67 years of the 4x4 being made at Solihull came to an end.
...

The new Defender will be built at the company's £1bn plant in Nitra in Slovakia, which opened in October 2018.

The plant wasn't build overnight, but since most of the UK car industry is foreign owned this sort of thing is to be expected. Every line closed down shrinks the market for UK parts companies.

The tipping point is when cars made in the UK no longer have enough UK content to be classed as UK cars for international trade deals At present this is a complete non-issue as it's EU content for EU deals.

BonnieSituation · 30-04-2019 09:00PM

lawred2 wrote: »

She is. And I would be an admirer of hers but the SNP can't go in to the next referendum with that same position on the pound that they had in 2014. It's not convincing. And it's easily attacked.

Just be brutally honest... We want to join the EU and we will commit to join the euro when it's right for Scotland. Until then it's a pound pegged to the pound sterling.

I don't think too many will be convinced by the 'our pound' claims. Especially when monetary policy is dictated in London.

The line of questioning is what makes this worse. It's aggressive and it doesn't matter what the SNP say. That's the irritating part. Thankfully they have started to roll out that Ireland did it. They avoided that in 2014 to their detriment.

Bit cynical · 30-04-2019 09:08PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I do love when people talk about "exports" between 2 parts of the same State.

I'm afraid the term export can also be applied to regional economies, not just states.

Capt'n Midnight · 30-04-2019 11:04PM

So Labour have OK'd a referendum, but only on a Tory deal.

No need to consult the people on a hypothetical Labour deal, because democracy :rolleyes:

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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