Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

circadian · 11-04-2019 08:25AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I was just thinking that if it was Ireland, (or any other 'small' country), that was behaving like the Brits, they would have long since been booted out the EU door and told not to come back anytime soon.
The EU have been far too lenient with the UK. They should be thinking far more about the long term good of the EU and not the short term damage that the UK can do, and are doing.

Dragging it out serves a good purpose for the EU. There are a number of populist anti EU movements around Europe with varying support. This entire fiasco is a word of warning to anyone else thinking about leaving. This is how difficult it is to get it right, is it worth putting yourself thriught this?

Peregrinus · 11-04-2019 08:40AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Where is Farage standing as an MEP or has he decided yet?

A few high profile Brexiteers losing their seats now would be great.

Farage currently sits for South East England, and presumably will seek election there again.

In 2014, UKIP won 32% of the vote and returned four MEPs (only one of whom still sits for UKIP). This time round the pro-Brexit vote will be split between UKIP and the Brexit Party, and it could of course be a bit less than 32% - we'll see. But if the Brexit Party can muster at least 10% of the vote, it will return an MEP, and that MEP will be Farage. To my lasting regret, I don't think he's likely to lose his seat.

Zubeneschamali · 11-04-2019 08:51AM

Bigus wrote: »

Or would they be stupid enough to take a break anyway ?

Of course they will take their holidays - every single day of them. The pressure is off now, they won't even think about Brexit until 1st October. May won't move the ball, because she will hope it comes down, next October, to her deal vs. No Deal, yet again - it is her only plan.

Wait and see, at next PMQs, Corbyn wil be asking about primary schools in Dorset or something.

Brexit is not the cause of their problems, it is a symptom.

lawred2 · 11-04-2019 08:52AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I am neither a brexiter nor someone who is British, not sure why you are attacking me with the bolded bit.

That wasn't aimed at you.

FrancieBrady · 11-04-2019 09:01AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Of course they will take their holidays - every single day of them. The pressure is off now, they won't even think about Brexit until 1st October. May won't move the ball, because she will hope it comes down, next October, to her deal vs. No Deal, yet again - it is her only plan.

Wait and see, at next PMQs, Corbyn wil be asking about primary schools in Dorset or something.

Brexit is not the cause of their problems, it is a symptom.

Wouldn't be that pessimistic. There is the prospect of the EU elections which is a platform for pro EUer's to get the message out about what the EU actually is and what the benefits are. If it turns a few more doubting Brexiters, that is a good thing.

Farage and Co. will have difficulty lying or at least, they should have, if the pro EU lobby can get their **** together.

I'm actually looking forward to the NI EU elections, should be plenty of fireworks and a decent look at how the land is lying.

prawnsambo · 11-04-2019 09:05AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Wouldn't be that pessimistic. There is the prospect of the EU elections which is a platform for pro EUer's to get the message out about what the EU actually is and what the benefits are. If it turns a few more doubting Brexiters, that is a good thing.

Farage and Co. will have difficulty lying or at least, they should have, if the pro EU lobby can get their **** together.

I'm actually looking forward to the NI EU elections, should be plenty of fireworks and a decent look at how the land is lying.

The pro-EU lobby have been largely ignored in the media and in parliament. Euro elections will give them a platform that they haven't had since the referendum. I would expect a number of the more well known ones to be standing, like Femi and others who have huge followings on social media. That in itself could really upset the status quo.

robinph · 11-04-2019 09:07AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Wouldn't be that pessimistic. There is the prospect of the EU elections which is a platform for pro EUer's to get the message out about what the EU actually is and what the benefits are. If it turns a few more doubting Brexiters, that is a good thing.

Farage and Co. will have difficulty lying or at least, they should have, if the pro EU lobby can get their **** together.

I'm actually looking forward to the NI EU elections, should be plenty of fireworks and a decent look at how the land is lying.

The UK has to declare that it will participate in the EU elections tomorrow, or it becomes hard brexit. May will do so with her fingers crossed behind her back and say something to her Brexiteers about that they can still stop the elections happening if they back her deal. Then the elections will happen and she'll say something about they can still stop the MEPs needing to take up their seats if only MPs would back her deal. Then they go on holidays for a few months. Then she'll say in surprise about it nearly being October already and MPs really should back her deal.

Rinse, repeat.

ArmaniJeanss · 11-04-2019 09:18AM

Can anyone explain/clarify the voting system the UK uses for European elections?

nc6000 · 11-04-2019 09:19AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Where is Farage standing as an MEP or has he decided yet?

A few high profile Brexiteers losing their seats now would be great.

I'm sure he will stand again so he stays on the EU gravy train and keeps building up his pension. I wonder does he get the transitional allowance if he steps down or doesn't get re-elected?

"MEPs earn €101,808 a year before tax and receive thousands more in expenses for staff, travel and office costs. Farage’s pension is understood to be worth £73,000 a year and he will also be entitled to a transitional allowance worth £117,000 when he steps down as an MEP in 2019, as the UK leaves the EU."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/12/nigel-farage-eu-salary-docked-claim-misspent-public-funds

prawnsambo · 11-04-2019 09:19AM

I'd forgotten about this, but the two year parliamentary session ends this summer. So a new session will have to start in September. Will that cause a problem for May? Is that why she wanted an extension until June 30th?

prawnsambo · 11-04-2019 09:21AM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Can anyone explain/clarify the voting system the UK uses for European elections?

Afaik, t's not unlike our own. An STV system with multi-seat constituencies.

Edit: Actually the STV is only in NI. It's different in England Scotland and Wales which use the d'Hondt method from a closed party list.

VinLieger · 11-04-2019 09:25AM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Can anyone explain/clarify the voting system the UK uses for European elections?

The same as everyone else uses for EU elections which is basically the same as our local and Dail elections, which also explains why UKIP et al win so many seats compared to their dismal performances in Westminster.

Long story short FPTP is incredibly undemocratic.

Mr.Wemmick · 11-04-2019 09:30AM

circadian wrote: »

Dragging it out serves a good purpose for the EU. There are a number of populist anti EU movements around Europe with varying support. This entire fiasco is a word of warning to anyone else thinking about leaving. This is how difficult it is to get it right, is it worth putting yourself thriught this?

The EU are really coming out as the good guys. Not only are they showing unity (shame on the HOC), they are demonstrating patience, understanding and ultimately are allowing the UK time and room to breathe in order to figure out what it wants.

For me, the huge thing here is, the EU27 have the all the people of United Kingdom firmly in their mind.. and thank the heavens for that because the Tories and the ERG do not give a tiny damn about the ordinary man/woman on the street. Whether that street be in Glasgow, Cardiff, Belfast or Manchester.. they would happily throw us all under a bus if it meant they had power and control.

ilovesmybrick · 11-04-2019 09:30AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd forgotten about this, but the two year parliamentary session ends this summer. So a new session will have to start in September. Will that cause a problem for May? Is that why she wanted an extension until June 30th?

There was a piece this morning in either The Times or the Guardian this morning saying that the real headache is that the Queens speech will expose how little the government has done or achieved during this session.

Zubeneschamali · 11-04-2019 09:31AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Wouldn't be that pessimistic. There is the prospect of the EU elections

Yes, but the people in Westminster don't care about the EU elections and never have.

Currently they stand at:

Labour 19
Tories 18
Ind 10
UKIP 7
Brexit 7
Green 3
SNP 2
DUP 1
UUP 1
Lib Dem 1
SF 1
Plaid Cymru 1
SDP 1

I expect Labour will stand fast, the Tories will lose out to Brexit and UKIP, and no-one at Westminster will notice.

Dont be at yourself · 11-04-2019 09:33AM

So the withdrawal agreement wont't be re-opened and there'll be no discussion on the future trade deal. Essentially, May's 'deal' is still the only show in town, and it's all about getting that passed.

Now that the can's kicked down the road, I don't see the free of no-deal helping to get it over the line (until the last week of October, anyway). That leaves either:
- a general election to change the parliamentary arithmetic
- bringing Labour/SNP/LibDems etc on board with Customs Union/confirmatory vote sweeteners

Again, with the can kicked down the road I don't expect the opposition parties to help get this deal over the line -- they'd much rather force a general election, I'm sure.

ArmaniJeanss · 11-04-2019 09:34AM

VinLieger wrote: »

The same as everyone else uses for EU elections which is basically the same as our local and Dail elections, which also explains why UKIP et al win so many seats compared to their dismal performances in Westminster.

I'm fairly sure it's not the same - I've never seen vote transfers/surpluses/quotas/multiple counts etc mentioned in UK EP elections except in the North.

ah, something called dHondt method according to prawnsambo, I'll have a look into that.

Zubeneschamali · 11-04-2019 09:35AM

robinph wrote: »

The UK has to declare that it will participate in the EU elections tomorrow

They already moved the order in Parliament to hold the elections:

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2019/832/contents/made

VinLieger · 11-04-2019 09:40AM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'm fairly sure it's not the same - I've never seen vote transfers/surpluses/quotas/multiple counts etc mentioned in UK EP elections except in the North.

ah, something called dHondt method according to prawnsambo, I'll have a look into that.

Indeed your right, NI uses STV but the rest of the UK uses d'Hondt

Theres a good guide here of how this works here http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/your-meps/european_elections/the_voting_system.html

I still think STV is far superior and gives better democratic representation

Anteayer · 11-04-2019 09:40AM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'm fairly sure it's not the same - I've never seen vote transfers/surpluses/quotas/multiple counts etc mentioned in UK EP elections except in the North.

ah, something called dHondt method according to prawnsambo, I'll have a look into that.

Our system is very unusual. The majority of PR systems use forms of party list systems : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party-list_proportional_representation

The Irish system is far more open. PR-STV was introduced here before partition, largely to ensure we didn’t get hegemony by narrow technical majorities and to ensure minority groups were represented.

BarryD2 · 11-04-2019 09:40AM

Cynic in me guesses the 6 month extension suits Leo down to the ground

If it were a year, well then we could have a GE as there'd be plenty of space. But 6 months is a bit tight, anything could happen in next few weeks and when we reach November things will be up in the air for a while and winter will be in. Win, win!

British Labour to become the mudguards of the Tory faction fights if they're not very careful and decisive.

RickBlaine · 11-04-2019 09:46AM

If in the coming weeks / months, the UK decides to have a 2nd referendum / confirmatory vote, the EU will probably extend beyond October 31st to accommodate this if necessary.

Peregrinus · 11-04-2019 09:49AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I am neither a brexiter nor someone who is British, not sure why you are attacking me with the bolded bit.

My apologies. I didn't mean you, CHBS; I mean you, the UK. But re-reading I see that wasn't clear at all. My bad.

Peregrinus · 11-04-2019 10:01AM

Anteayer wrote: »

Our system is very unusual. The majority of PR systems use forms of party list systems : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party-list_proportional_representation

The Irish system is far more open. PR-STV was introduced here before partition, largely to ensure we didn’t get hegemony by narrow technical majorities and to ensure minority groups were represented.

Both the Irish/NI system and the D'Hondt system used in GB will deliver seats to parties more or less in proportion to their share of the vote.

The differennce is that the Irish system gives the voter a lot more power. The voter determines which party candidates he favours and which he does not, and is free to cross between parties, giving his first preference to a candidate from party A, second to party B, third back to party A, and so forth. In the D'Hondt system the voter merely indicates support for one party; the votes for the various parties are totted up and each party is allocated a number of seats determined by its total of votes, and the party determines which of its candidates fill those seats. (They determine this in advance, by listing the candidates in a specified order. Then if the party wins. say, 3 seats the first 3 candidates in that list will fill them.)

darem93 · 11-04-2019 10:07AM

It's becoming more and more evident that the only reason the DUP supported this shambles was to drive a wedge between NI and the Republic.

https://twitter.com/little_pengelly/status/1116105471994281987

How can she actually write this with a straight face? This imagined 'broken relationship' between the people in Northern Ireland and the Irish government is completely made up by the DUP to try and paint the Republic as 'the enemy'. Whereas in reality a large majority of the people in the North support the Irish government's approach and are probably glad someone is actually standing up for them.

Zubeneschamali · 11-04-2019 10:10AM

RickBlaine wrote: »

the EU will probably extend beyond October 31st to accommodate this if necessary.

At 6:54 in the Tusk/Juncker press conference link below, the second part of Chris Morris's (BBC) question (paraphrasing a bit), is:

Article 50 doesn't rule out multiple extensions, is there anything in the language agreed today which says that October the 31st is the final deadline?

Tusk: "Our intention is to finalize this process in October, but [...] I am too old to exclude another scenario, still everything is possible."

Juncker: "A Hard Brexit before the deal would be a total disaster, everyone knows that, so we have to do everything to avoid a hard deal."

Pretty clear that they are already not ruling out a further extension.

lawred2 · 11-04-2019 10:18AM

darem93 wrote: »

It's becoming more and more evident that the only reason the DUP supported this shambles was to drive a wedge between NI and the Republic.

https://twitter.com/little_pengelly/status/1116105471994281987

How can she actually write this with a straight face? This imagined 'broken relationship' between the people in Northern Ireland and the Irish government is completely made up by the DUP to try and paint the Republic as 'the enemy'. Whereas in reality a large majority of the people in the North support the Irish government's approach and are probably glad someone is actually standing up for them.

Well it's somewhat heartening to see almost zero support for her deranged tweet...

Peregrinus · 11-04-2019 10:18AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

At 6:54 in the Tusk/Juncker press conference link below, the second part of Chris Morris's (BBC) question (paraphrasing a bit), is:

Article 50 doesn't rule out multiple extensions, is there anything in the language agreed today which says that October the 31st is the final deadline?

Tusk: "Our intention is to finalize this process in October, but [...] I am too old to exclude another scenario, still everything is possible."

Juncker: "A Hard Brexit before the deal would be a total disaster, everyone knows that, so we have to do everything to avoid a hard deal."

Pretty clear that they are already not ruling out a further extension.

The EU would always be very, very slow to throw out a member; the optics would be really bad. Plus, as long as there is any possibility at all of either a negotiated exit or a decision to remain, either of those is preferable to a no-deal exit and the EU will not want to force the latter.

Which is not to say that they would always and in every circumstance grant an extension if asked. But it's safe to say that they would never rule out in advance the possibility of granting an extension.

Hurrache · 11-04-2019 10:21AM

Straws being grasped by the political editor at the BBC....
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1116258789022412801

Zubeneschamali · 11-04-2019 10:22AM

Sam Coates reporting that the Commons are breaking for Easter at 5 pm today, a week earlier than advertised at https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1116241266675736576

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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