Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42 · 05-04-2019 11:11AM

James O'Brien is making the valid point about the JRM tweet that how can he complain that the UK is ruled without representation in the EU, yet now he claims that the Uk can stop and create major problems for the EU?

So which is it JRM? Do the UK have a voice in the EU or not?

prawnsambo · 05-04-2019 11:22AM

Enzokk wrote: »

The result is interesting and you can play with the numbers in a lot of ways. What I do see is that their majority is down, but the UKIP vote is massively up. If the UKIP vote went to the Tories they would have won the seat. I think this will make it interesting if there is a general election, will the Tories go further right to try and keep/win that vote? Because it seems to me that they will lose more of that vote than Labour.

The thing that struck me was the size of the constituency. It seems nuts that a country the size of the UK would have such small constituencies. Smaller than a lot of our constituencies. I know we have multi-seat constituencies, so that skews the difference a lot, but we're a far smaller country with a fraction of the population.

swampgas · 05-04-2019 11:24AM

Enzokk wrote: »

But you discount the Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat and Greens votes, as I think you realize with the edit. Also, you have to assume that all of the UKIP voters are Conservatives that want to Brexit. There is still a Lexit vote out there and I think maybe 25% of UKIP would prefer Labour to Conservatives.

True, this particular case wasn't the best example. But the point remains, FPTP punishes parties with similar manifestos as the vote gets split between them.

Shelga · 05-04-2019 11:34AM

What Eurosceptics really want is for the entire EU to disband. Leaving it will never ever be as good as being a member, while it exists. Time for them to start being honest about it.

Leroy42 · 05-04-2019 11:37AM

swampgas wrote: »

True, this particular case wasn't the best example. But the point remains, FPTP punishes parties with similar manifestos as the vote gets split between them.

I think what it highlights is the changing nature of UK politics. Are we looking at a resetting of the current left/right split to one that is more Brexit/EU?

There is of course the idea that once Brexit is over (will it ever really be over?) that things will return but I think that one of the outcomes of TM latest move is to highlight just how close both parties are to each other in many things.

The number of extremists (and I use that term in terms of the party line rather than anything to do with violence etc) in each party has increased, eg JRM and the ERG as well as Kate Hoey and others in Labour, when in reality they no more belong to the parties they say they stand for than I do.

VinLieger · 05-04-2019 11:40AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

The number of extremists (and I use that term in terms of the party line rather than anything to do with violence etc) in each party has increased, eg JRM and the ERG as well as Kate Hoey and others in Labour, when in reality they no more belong to the parties they say they stand for than I do.

I honestly believe this is another symptom of the problems around FPTP. If these extremists decided to stand by their real principles and create their own parties instead of hiding under the Labour/Tory umbrellas they know they would never be elected.

Anteayer · 05-04-2019 11:46AM

I'm increasingly confused by what's happening. I'm getting hassle at work about it now too.

I suggested that we should play it with caution and have contingencies for a hard Brexit. However those of us who have been cautious are now getting told that we are over panicking and it's all been a waste of resources.

At work, the senior managers are now not planning for Brexit and have adopted a 'ah it'll be grand' attitude.

So I'm not predicting anything anymore. If there's a hard brexit and the company goes under, I'll just get a job somewhere else.

I've started looking for jobs abroad as I still think this thing could be a complete disaster.

2008 was enough for me. I'm not exposing myself to this kind of risk again.

bob mcbob · 05-04-2019 11:51AM

swampgas wrote: »

The combined Conservative and UKIP vote is 9,380, just ahead of the the Labour vote at 9,308.

This is a nice illustration of how the FPTP system fails to represent the majority of the voters.

I'd guess that most of the UKIP voters would have preferred the Conservative candidate to the Labour one. Had there been STV in place, it's likely that the result would have been different, and have been a better reflection of the wishes of the voters.

Edit: okay, in this instance it might be a stretch to say that the Labour candidate wouldn't have won, but it's pretty close.

Yes but 4th (PC), 5th (LibDem), 6th (Green) and 7th (Renew) would be likely to choose Labour over Tory if STV was in place.

Enzokk · 05-04-2019 11:53AM

swampgas wrote: »

True, this particular case wasn't the best example. But the point remains, FPTP punishes parties with similar manifestos as the vote gets split between them.

I agree with your overall point and you are right that this election wasn't a great representation of it. FPTP is a flawed system when but I don't see either party going for changes if it means changing the way they do business or politics.

ShooterSF · 05-04-2019 11:55AM

I've really liked tusk up to now but if this is true he's totally caved. The uk do not have a concrete plan for a long extension. The rumour is they're not going to even ask for one. Hopefully the council have a bit more backbone.

swampgas · 05-04-2019 11:56AM

Shelga wrote: »

What Eurosceptics really want is for the entire EU to disband. Leaving it will never ever be as good as being a member, while it exists. Time for them to start being honest about it.

It's hard to know how many Brexiters just want out, and how many want to see the EU destroyed. Certainly there are some high profile people like Farage who have openly expressed their very strong wish to see the Euro fail and the EU collapse.

Maybe in their eyes it's a "successful empire" on their doorstep, which aggravates their nostalgia for the British Empire. Or maybe (as I suspect) they are being influenced (or encouraged, bribed or blackmailed) by major players like the US, China and Russia who might find it useful to have the EU reduced in status and influence.

VinLieger · 05-04-2019 12:00PM

ShooterSF wrote: »

I've really liked tusk up to now but if this is true he's totally caved. The uk do not have a concrete plan for a long extension. The rumour is they're not going to even ask for one. Hopefully the council have a bit more backbone.

What are you talking about? The longer the extension the more likely a 2nd referendum or GE which could led to article 50 being revoked which both Tusk and Barnier have said they have always been open to. You seem to be coming from the position that it is the EU's job to punish the UK.

Hurrache · 05-04-2019 12:03PM

ShooterSF wrote: »

I've really liked tusk up to now but if this is true he's totally caved. The uk do not have a concrete plan for a long extension. The rumour is they're not going to even ask for one. Hopefully the council have a bit more backbone.

There's no caving, and they have asked for an extension.

Anteayer · 05-04-2019 12:12PM

All I know is that I can't work in a regulatory environment that's subject to another 12 months of chaos. The Tories and a large aspect of British politics have behaved absolutely irresponsibly with all this brinkmanship.

It's all fine and well when you're in a bubble of political game playing but there are real consequences in businesses all over these islands and in Europe too.

The idiocy isn't being called out hard enough and the markets seem to be off in their own bubble (which is often very London centric and very anti regulation) so that's resulted in a perception that this chaos is without consequences.

MrMusician18 · 05-04-2019 12:14PM

Hurrache wrote: »

There's no caving, and they have asked for an extension.

What is the plan?

Hurrache · 05-04-2019 12:18PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What is the plan?

Who's plan?

Penn · 05-04-2019 12:19PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What is the plan?

Give the UK enough time to come up with a plan for a proper Brexit with a deal (whether by changing their red lines to come up with a new withdrawal agreement, a general election or a second referendum), because a deal is in the EU's best interests as well as the UK's (though no Brexit would be the preferred option). However, make sure the extension is longer than the UK is asking for in order to sort out the issue of the UK having to hold MEP elections, which again is in the EU's best interests.

Tusk hasn't caved. He's being entirely reasonable and acting in the EU's best interests.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-04-2019 12:20PM

The Spectator is sore over Ireland joining as as observer the French commonwealth.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/irelands-strange-decision-to-become-a-french-colonial-outpost/

Argues in a post Brexit world makes more sense for Ireland to join their commonwealth.

MrMusician18 · 05-04-2019 12:25PM

Penn wrote: »

Give the UK enough time to come up with a plan for a proper Brexit with a deal (whether by changing their red lines to come up with a new withdrawal agreement, a general election or a second referendum), because a deal is in the EU's best interests as well as the UK's (though no Brexit would be the preferred option). However, make sure the extension is longer than the UK is asking for in order to sort out the issue of the UK having to hold MEP elections, which again is in the EU's best interests.

Tusk hasn't caved. He's being entirely reasonable and acting in the EU's best interests.

The EU had said that there would be no extension beyond the end of May unless the UK took part in EU parl. elections AND had a realistic plan for what it was going to use the extended period for. It was strongly hinted that the UK would need to organise a general election or referendum for the plans to be considered serious.

But now Tusk has essentially given them carte blanche to continue as they have, squabbling, for another year.

So yeah, it is a European U turn.

Evd-Burner · 05-04-2019 12:25PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Spectator is sore over Ireland joining as as observer the French commonwealth.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/irelands-strange-decision-to-become-a-french-colonial-outpost/

Argues in a post Brexit world makes more sense for Ireland to join their commonwealth.

I'm at a complete loss for words after reading that to be honest!

ShooterSF · 05-04-2019 12:29PM

VinLieger wrote: »

What are you talking about? The longer the extension the more likely a 2nd referendum or GE which could led to article 50 being revoked which both Tusk and Barnier have said they have always been open to. You seem to be coming from the position that it is the EU's job to punish the UK.

No I'm coming from a position that rest of the EU has said that any long extension must come with a plan by the UK why they want it for. Now we're just going to offer one in the hope that they sort their mess out. How is that not a u-turn?

Hurrache wrote: »

There's no caving, and they have asked for an extension.

I've heard 30th of June and 22nd of May. No plan for a long extension as they haven't even requested one.

Hurrache · 05-04-2019 12:29PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Spectator is sore over Ireland joining as as observer the French commonwealth.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/irelands-strange-decision-to-become-a-french-colonial-outpost/

Argues in a post Brexit world makes more sense for Ireland to join their commonwealth.

That's the dumbest ****ing thing I've read in a long line of dumb ****ing things to come from the Brexit loving press, even considering it's in the Spectator, and the writer is/was a Daily Mail writer.

They really are sore that's they've been outplayed diplomatically.

MrMusician18 · 05-04-2019 12:32PM

Hurrache wrote: »

That's the dumbest ****ing thing I've read in a long line of dumb ****ing things to come from the Brexit loving press, even considering it's in the Spectator, and the writer is/was a Daily Mail writer.

They really are sore that's they've been outplayed diplomatically.

I do like the bit about them being at the back of the queue for the bailout loan repayment. Of course he neglected to mention that the UK refused the offer to be repaid early.

lawred2 · 05-04-2019 12:33PM

Hurrache wrote: »

That's the dumbest ****ing thing I've read in a long line of dumb ****ing things to come from the Brexit loving press, even considering it's in the Spectator, and the writer is/was a Daily Mail writer.

They really are sore that's they've been outplayed diplomatically.

the image is outrageously offensive too - a cartoon of some senior European politicians drawing a border on the island of Ireland.

There is only one country on this planet responsible for a geopolitical border on this island.

And none of those politicians hail from there.

lawred2 · 05-04-2019 12:34PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I do like the bit about them being at the back of the queue for the bailout loan repayment. Of course he neglected to mention that the UK refused the offer to be repaid early.

Post fact/truth world now - reality doesn't matter. The intended reader will pass on the lie with conviction.

Hurrache · 05-04-2019 12:36PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I do like the bit about them being at the back of the queue for the bailout loan repayment. Of course he neglected to mention that the UK refused the offer to be repaid early.

Indeed, I did laugh at that alternative reality he put forward.

ShooterSF · 05-04-2019 12:36PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Spectator is sore over Ireland joining as as observer the French commonwealth.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/irelands-strange-decision-to-become-a-french-colonial-outpost/

Oh one would love to ask him why we speak English in the feckin first place :pac::pac:

seamus · 05-04-2019 12:38PM

When the writer starts out describing Irish independence as Ireland "walking out of the Commonwealth", it tells you everything you need to know about the rest of the article.

Not least the cartoon which is just an anti-EU one reused from earlier in the year.

Hurrache · 05-04-2019 12:41PM

Verhofstadt's take on JRM. The rolling extension is far from a done deal.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1114119719655755776

lawred2 · 05-04-2019 12:41PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Indeed, I did laugh at that alternative reality he put forward.

You'd be forgiven for thinking that Ireland willingly joined the commonwealth prior to 'walking' out of it 70 years ago.

Worrying thing is that

a) the author believes it
b) the author doesn't believe it, knows it's all bollocks but knows that many readers will take it at face value and he is in fact creating his own version of history

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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